Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, April 16, 2015

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

  • Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

  • Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

  • Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

  • Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds)

  • Lay the underdog  scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market , especially in BANKER matches.

An interesting set of matches yesterday. Celtic conceded first and won easily, clinching the SPL title infront of home support. Plzen won 2-1 , Galatasary led after 2 minutes but the match ended1-1 as it was not a must win for a Gala side 4-0 up from the first leg.

In the Champions League, both teams scored again as Barcelona scored 3 away goals to ensure a humdinger 2nd leg. Porto surprised Bayern Munich with a 3-1 home win, but Bayern got that precious away goal.

The Europa League is extremely difficult for me to get a grasp on this evening so it's a night off for me and time better spent researching the weekend football.

5:45pm - Fenerbahce v Mersin Idman Yurdu  - 1.41 home

Standout Stats

  • This is the Turkish Cup between 2nd v 7th in the Turkish Super Lig.
  • 2-1 to Fenerbahce from the first leg saw them lead 0-2 before halftime.
  • 6 consecutive wins in head to heads for Fenerbahce suggests they tend to beat Mersin regularly. The away side will needto score first to have a hope of staying in this Turkish Cup match.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Not a match which greatly interests. It is clear that Fenerbahce are the better team and a 0-2 lead before halftime away at Mersin in the first round of this Turkish Cup match emphasises their dominance. There have been a number of 2-1's in head to heads, so if Mersin score first, lay them.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:05pm - Club Brugge v Dnipro  - 1.98 home

Standout Stats

  • These 2 last met in 2004
  • This is another Europa League quarter final over 2 legs. Away goals therefore count so that will be factored into the likely tactics of both teams.
  • How on earth do we research this match between 2 sides from vastly different leagues whose form cannot really be measured against each other?
  • Club Brugge have a 5 match winning run in the Europa League, v HJK, AaB twice and Besiktas twice. The latter result is eye-catching given the season Besiktas are having domestically
  • Dnipro got past Ajax with the help of penalties. Still, that is a reasonable scalp as I suspect Ajax would have given Club Brugge a game. Dnipro also scored 2 against Olympiakos is both of their legs so have a reasonable attacking threat.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A very tough match to predict on a night I will probably leave alone. The Europa League quarter finals are so tough to research and thus get an angle into. Dnipro have only won 1 of their last 8 away Europa League matches. Is this enough to oppose them if they take the lead?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:05pm - Dinamo Kiev v Fiorentina  - 2.42 home

Standout Stats

  • The odds relay how tough this match is to call. 2.42 the favourite suggests a favourite only because there has to be a favourite!
  • 1st in the Ukraine plays 5th in Seria A and instantly you suspect that it is Seria A which is the tougher league to survive in?
  • Dinamo Kiev impressed at home to premiership Everton, losing away 2-1 then winning 5-2 at home. It was a similar story against Guingamp, losing away and winning at home. How will Dinamo Kiev cope, playing their 1st leg at home and 2nd leg away for the first time this year? Do we therefore expect a home win, and struggles away?
  • 5 consecutive Kiev home wins in the Europa League (EL) where they did concede in their last 2 EL matches.
  • Fiorentina have impressed in the EL, beaten Tottenham and Roma in their last 2 EL matches. 4 wins in their last 5 away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both sides have shown reasonable form . If you think Dinamo Kiev show a pattern, then they'll win at home, and lose away. But this is the first occasion this year that Dinamo Kiev start their 1st leg at home.
  • Fiorentina have very impressive recent form against Spurs and Roma. That really is eye-catching. Logic suggests a team from Seria A should have too much.
  • As you can see here, I can make an argument for either side this evening. I suspect it is the 2nd legs which may reveal any angles into these matches.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:05pm - Sevilla v Zenit St Petersburg  - 1.68 home

Standout Stats

  • These 2 last met in 2006
  • This is 5th in La Liga v 1st in the Russian Premier League.
  • This is a Europa League match.

Sevilla

  • Only 1 loss in 11 in all competitions came in a friendly.
  • Have scored 2+ goals in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home since 16th March 2014 came in a friendly.
  • 19 wins in 23 home matches for Sevilla sees them in solid form.
  • 5 consecutive wins for Sevilla in the Europa League.
  • Mgladbach and Villareal are recent teams beaten
  • 7 wins in their last 8 home Europa League matches. The last 3 home wins have been tight 1-0, 1-0,2-1

Zenit

  • Hulk and Danny I think are out for Zenit. The former is a big (green) miss and could be the difference today. Only 2 defeats in their last 14 matches came against Monaco and Torino so Zenit, while strong at home, may be vulnerable in European competition.
  • 4 of the last 5 away defeats for Zenit came v European opponents.
  • No draw in the last 18 matches in the Europa League (EL)
  • Zenit have beaten Basel, PSV, PSV again and Torino recently before losing 1-0 away at Torino in a match they won over the 2 legs.
  • 5 losses in their last 6 away EL matches is perhaps why Sevilla are warm order today.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • With Zenit players Hulk and Danny out of action, and with a poor away record in the EL, I think the market is about right here. Do remember this is the first of 2 legs so away goals count. I do expect Sevilla not to lose and they have a superb home record in all competitions and an ability to score 2 goals regularly. Lay Zenit if they score first, particularly with said away goals rule.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:05pm - Wolfsburg v Napoli  - 1.85 home

Standout Stats

  • This is another Europa League quarter final against high scoring Wolfsburg and stuttering Napoli.
  • Wolfsburg have only lost to Everton recently in this competition, and when entering the 2 legged phase, beat and drew with Sporting Lisbon, and beat Inter Milan home and away.
  • Napoli overcame Trabzonspor and Dinamo Moscow in their 2 recent Europa League matches.
  • Napoli have kept 4 clean sheets in their 5 away Europa League matches and that may be a deliberate tactic from Benitez.2 of their last 3 EL matches have been 0-0 though away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Another match I'm afraid I'll be sitting out today. I cannot get a strong angle in as these 2 rarely meet, and are from 2 different leagues. Napoli only have 2 wins in 10 matches in all competitions so are in cold form. Wolfsburg are renowned for their goals. Wolfsburg only have the one loss since November 2014 so are in excellent form.