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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, May 14, 2015

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

Cha-ching! Did you lay 1.17 shots Fenerbahce 1-0 up? The match ended 1-1. Talk about cocking up a title push. Only Galatasary seem to want to win their matches, and then only 1-0!

The other Turkish match did not go over 2.5 goals and only Trabzonspor could score.

Bodo scored first against Start, and Start equalised. 29% over 2.5 goals only for Viborg continued today with a 1-0 win.

I did the Bet365 Champions League promotion yesterday- did you?

 

12pm - HJK Helsinki v IFK Mariehamn  - 1.41 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-0, 0-2, 5-1 to HJK the last time these 2 have met in the league.
  • This is 1st v 3rd in the Finnish top flight. HJK have played a match more than IFK. If IFK win today, they actually go top!

HJK

  • Only 1 loss this season was a 1-0 away.
  • 1-1, 1-0, 3-0, 1-0 at home this season. You can argue they are doing just enough and are too over-reliant on defence. This could catch them out as it has once with a 1-1.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets though
  • 5 of 6 home goals scored so far this early part of the season, were scored in the 2nd half.

IFK

  • A chance to lay down a marker with top place with a win.
  • Unbeaten this season.Like HJK, matches have been tight. 1-1, 1-1, 0-1, 0-1, 1-1, 2-1. Only in the last match did they score more than 1 goal.
  • All 3 away goals were scored 2nd half.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • With more matches comes more patterns. It is far too early at the moment. HJK are clearly favoured on head to heads.
  • If this match is 0-0 at halftime, do expect a 2nd half goal. Early on, these 2 are scoring a lot 2nd half.
  • I would lay IFK if they score first. Yes they have a couple of 0-1's but 3 1-1's and a 2-1 suggest vulnerability if they score first.
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12pm - SJK v VPS  - 1.46 home

Standout Stats

  • SJK won the last 2 head to heads, cup matches. Only 1 loss for SJK in 5 head to heads. All SJK wins were to nil.
  • This is 2nd v 12th in the Finnish top league.

SJK

  • 4 wins in 5 matches were all to nil. 3 wins at home were all wins to nil.
  • SJK failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 7 of the 8 home goals were scored 2nd half.

VPS

  • 5 losses this season.3 1-0 defeats and 2 3-2 defeats.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • It looks as if VPS will concede at some stage and if losing, the defeats are likely to be more 1-0's than the 3-2's they have lost to. It could be a tight early exchange. Another clean sheet for SJK?  The shock therefore would be VPS scoring first, and we can lay them if they do.
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3pm - FC Vestsjaelland v FC Copenhagen  - 1.51 away

Standout Stats

  • This is the Danish Cup . Copenhagen have won the last 2 head to heads 2-0 and 0-1
  • This is 11th v 2nd in the Danish top league.
  • Vestsjaelland have won 7 of their last 9 matches in the cup. As ever it's hard to quantify the form as the teams are largely from lower leagues.
  • Only 1 loss in 15 matches in the Cup. 4 consecutive clean sheets for Copenhagen  in their last 4 cup matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Head to heads have been tight. Copenhagen are favoured today. As a Danish Cup match, I will not prioritise this match, but will lay the home side if they score first.
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4:30pm - FC Inter v KTP  - 1.67 home

Standout Stats

  • These 2 have not met since 2000
  • This is 4th v 8th in the Finnish top league.

FC Inter

  • Only 1 loss this season but still only 6 matches in.1-1, 3-1, 2-0 in their 3 home matches this season.
  • Inter has scored in all matches so far.

KTP

  • No win in 4 away
  • Scored and conceded in their last 2 matches.
  • Only 1 win this season was a 3-2 at home.
  • Failed to score in 2 of their last 3 away matches. Only lost 1-0 to HJK

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This is a tough match to read because this is the first time that these 2 have met since 2000. FC Inter are the form side but it's only 6 matches old. KTP are scoring and conceding in their last 2 matches. If they score first today, lay them.
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5:45pm - Akhisar Belediye v Besiktas  - 1.58 away

Standout Stats

  • 3-3-3 scored by Besiktas in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 14th v 3rd in the Turkish Super Lig . Besiktas go 2nd with a win but it seems only Galatasary are doing what is necessary in such a tight league title battle.

Akhisar

  • No draw in 5 at home.
  • No win in 4 matches.
  • 2 losses in 7 matches at home were v top 4 sides. Important?
  • Failed to score in their last 2 matches.
  • Beat Fenerbahce home and away (2nd).
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

Besiktas

  • 15 away without a draw
  • 2 match winning streak away
  • 9 wins away in their last 11. 2 losses there were against 2nd and 10th, 1-0 defeats.
  • 5 and 2 scored in the last 2 away matches
  • No 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I say it again in Turkey, this is another must-win for a top 3 side. Fenerbahce cocked it up yesterday and we profited very well. Besiktas cocked it up at 1.25 odds last time out with a 1-1.
  • Head to heads though are very compelling, suggesting Besiktas consistently score 3 goals against Akhisar, a team who has beaten Fenerbahce home and away.
  • Lay any late draw. Besiktas tend to avoid a draw away from home. At the risk of another draw, I do think Besiktas can win today. Akhisar's 2 recent home defeats were against top 4 sides. THe avoidance of a draw suggests a home win or away win. Lay Akhisar if they score first.
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6pm - AGF v Fredericia  - 1.47 home

Standout Stats

  • 6 consecutive wins in head to heads for AGF. The last 2 were 2-1 wins.
  • This is 2nd v 10th of 12 in the Danish First Division

AGF

  • 3 match winning streak
  • No defeat in 14 matches and 6 at home
  • Scored in their last 14 matches and last 7 at home.
  • Only once in that run did AGF concede more than 1 goal.

Fredericia

  • No draw in 2 away
  • Only 5 wins all season. won 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • There is no Challenge table for this league. A challenge table shows us how teams perform against top, middle, and bottom teams. So we are missing some key info. That said, both sides have good recent form, with Fred's 3 clean sheets in 4, but we can argue that AGF's form has lasted a lot longer and is therefore more consistent.
  •  I'd have to favour the home side on what I see and lay Fredericia if they score first (i may cover the 0-1 correct score if the odds are large enough because of said clean sheets)
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7:45pm - Southend v Stevenage  - 1.98 home

Standout Stats

  • This is the 2nd leg of the league 2 playoff  - 1-1 from the first leg and advantage Southend with the away goal.
  • As you can appreciate I cannot realistically research these one-off matches.
  • Looking at the season-end form, Southend kept 5 consecutive home clean sheets. Only 1 win in 7 aways for Stevenage did see 5 draws though.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Southend's clean sheets at home could be their saving grace today. They have the away goal and merely need a 0-0. Stevenage are in deficit at 1-1 with this away goal so must score.
  • I would look at backing another 1-1 here pre-match and hope there is a trading element to the scoreline.
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8:05pm - Dnipro v Napoli  - 2 away

Standout Stats

  • Napoli were strong odds on shots in the first leg of this Europa League semi-final to prevail and a look at their form as highlighted by me that day suggested that price was reasonable. But Dnipro kept it tight and nicked an away goal , despite having terrible away form in the Europa League.
  • It is therefore advantage Dnipro today with that away goal. Napoli go through with a 0-1 basically. Dnipro go through with a 0-0 bare minimum.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • It's another match I have no opinion on. I would still logically favour Napoli, based on the team members and Champions League savvy manager.
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8:05pm - Fiorentina v Sevilla - 2.32 home

Standout Stats

  • The perfect first leg from Sevilla at home in this Europa League semi-final.
  • 3-0 and no away goal. Quite clearly, an away goal from Sevilla will sound the death knell for Fiorentina. Fiorentina must come out and attack, attack, attack. They need to mirror and match the 3-0 in order to just retain parity.
  • Over 2.5 goals therefore could have legs, logically (I cannot base on any stats as this is a one-off match)

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I would lay the 0-0 halftime score here as late as I can in the first half . The need for goals is great with the home side. Do remember Sevilla can tolerate a 2-0 defeat today. Will they do as Monaco did v Arsenal and "engineer" a 2-0 defeat?
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