Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Yesterday's trading angles?
  • France women 0-0 at halftime. Did you expect a 2nd half goal considering French women are at home? 2-1 it ended.
  • Germany women match went well. I advocated 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 pre match. 1-0 it ended.
A quiet day today. It is must-win territory for Australian women. Some of the big names in tennis are starting their pre-Wimbledon tournaments. David Goffin; Kiki Bertens; Stefanos Tsitsipas; Verdasco; Kukushkin. In Stuttgart, Gael Monfils; Karen Khachanov; Alexander Zverev; Felix Auger-Aliassime all play. Donna Vekic; Caroline Garcia; Maria Sakkari are playing at Nottingham. These players are the ones I would focus on today. All top ranked or improving players expecting to get some solid performances on grass under their belts.

WOMEN'S WORLD CUP

17:00 - Australia v Brazil - 2.36 Australia

  • 6th v 10th in the FIFA rankings.
  • Must win territory already for Australia, having been mugged by Italy with a 90th minute 1-2 scoreline.
  • Brazil had a well-advertised losing run pre-World Cup, put to bed with a 3-0 win v Jamaica.
  • Australia have won the last 4 head to heads 6-1, 2-1, 3-2 and 1-3. That certainly augurs well for them today.
  • But yet again, in this World Cup, we have major teams spluttering in front of goal. Japan, Sweden, France yesterday and now Australia.
  • No strong angles bar these 2 - 1) Must Win for Australia, 2) Australia have a 4 match winning run v Brazil, note Brazil have scored in each.

20:00 - South Africa v China -1.46 China

  • 49th v 16th in the rankings.
  • 0-2 China in the most recent head to head in 2016.
  • 6 losses in 7 matches in all competitions for SA. 3-1 loss v Spain in the World Cup opener.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches for China. China lost 1-0 to Germany in their World Cup opener.
  • The market is with the rankings here. Are you? Unlikely these 2 will qualify with Germany and Spain in the same group. To give themselves a chance, they must beat the lesser lights.

SPANISH SEGUNDA DIVISION

20:00 - Mallorca v Albacete - 2.02 Mallorca

  • 5th and 4th in the Segunda Division.
  • This is the first of 2 legs in an end-of-season play-off which I presume is for promotion to the Primeira Liga.
  • How to research what is effectively a 2 match shoot out?
  • I start with head to heads.
  • 1-3 and 2-0 wins for Albacete this season-past sees them confident in doing the treble against Mallorca. 2+ goals scored in each match as well.Both of those matches though saw a red card for Mallorca. This turned 1-0 into 2-0 with a 90th minute penalty. And in the 1-3 win, the scoreline was 1-1 until the red card for Mallorca.
  • So, the wins for Albacete on the surface of it looks good but there are extenuating circumstances for Mallorca and the market has acknowledged that today with favouritism for Mallorca.
  • The next thing to do is look at recent form and Challenge Table form.
  • At home this season, Mallorca only lost to 3rd and 4th at home (yes they lost to Albacete as we know). Mallorca failed to score that 2nd goal this season at home v the top 8 and that pattern needs to be broken.
  • Only 2 wins for Mallorca v the top 4 were 1-0 wins.
  • Mallorca ended the season with that 2nd goal struggle. They failed to score that 2nd goal in their last 5 matches of the season.
  • Mallorca ended the season unbeaten in 12 home matches and scoring in their last 21 matches.
  • 6 of 7 defeats away for Albacete came v the top 10 over the season. Yet they managed to beat Mallorca.
  • 3 losses in 4 for Albacete closed their season.
  • So, what do we know? Albacete did the double this season but 1-1 and 1-0 scorelines were enhanced by red cards in both head to heads. So today's first of two legs is likely to be tight if it remains 11 v 11 on the pitch.
  • Both sides struggled v the better sides over the season. A suggestion that the first goal scorer is to be layed with the 1-0 or 0-1 covered as insurance. Why? Mallorca struggling with 2nd goal. And Albacete poor record away from home v the top 10.

FINNISH YKKONEN

16:30 - Haka v MyPa - 1.17 Haka

  • 2-2 in the cup is the only recent head to head. I thought I would look at this given the warm odds towards Haka.

Haka (1st)

  • Unbeaten.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 4/4 wins at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 3 at home.

MyPa (9th)

  • Only 1 win.
  • 3 consecutive draws.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Not played the top 2 away but 0-0 away v 3rd.

Conclusions

  • It looks obvious if we ignore the head to head. Do we expect 2+ goals from Haka today?
  • Is this league trustworthy enough that if after 20 minutes it's still 0-0, back 1-0 or 2-0 in the halftime score market.