Garbiñe Muguruza v Magdalena Rybarikova - 1.4 Muguruza
- With my version of tennis trading, my focus in Grand Slam events tends to be in the early stages where there are discrepancies in rankings, and sometimes players from the ATP / WTA playing a Challenger Level player.
- Now we are at the business end of the tournament, things get tougher. Naturally the 2 players are in immediately good form.
- 6th v 384th in the rankings. I suspect Magda may be coming back from injury. That, or her trainer has turned on a switch, on grass.
- The last grass court event between these 2 was in 2015 and Magda won.
- 18 wins in 19 matches for Magda. Only Konta has beaten her on grass.
- 85th and 17th have beaten Garbine recently on grass.
- I really think that Mug's odds are far too short for me at the off. It is the football equivalent of a favourite playing a team who have only 1 loss in 19 away matches.
- I will be laying Muguruza at 1.4 at the off. I will sit it out if Mug wins the first set.
Venus Williams v Johanna Konta - 1.86 Konta
- 12th v 7th.
- It's 3-1 Konta in head to heads from 2016 onwards.
- This Konta is a street fighter. 4 tie breakers, 2 in her last match. A 10-8 set win last set.
- Venus has lost only one set. I do favour Konta today in so far as she should not be losing 2-0. My ideal trade? Venus wins the first set, I back Konta at higher odds. And will back her at higher odds if the 2nd set goes to a tie breaker and her odds rise again.
Europa League First Leg Matches.
I will not be researching all Europa League First Leg Matches. It is a guessing game, quite frankly at this stage of the competition. It is extremely difficult to evaluate one league against another, for example there is a match between a Cypriot and Moldovan league team.
I will do an initial sweep for matches whose teams catch my eye. Then I will do another sweep by odds (but note the market makers are as in the dark as us all and their odds are best-guess).
Remember these are first leg matches. Away goals are crucial in two-legged matches. That in itself impacts upon tactics. Having researched a handful of matches I am led to the conclusion that it is via the in-play stats that you'll get any trading angles (www.williamhill.com and www.flashscore.com are excellent free in-play stats resources).
15:45 - Kairat Almaty v Skenderbeu - 1.26 Kairat
- Kazaks v Albania. Goodness me! How on earth can we gauge these 2 teams and their prospective leagues?
- Almaty at home in the Europa League have 7 wins and 2 draws so look solid ( albeit how do we know the strength of the teams they played as against today's?
- Almaty have not conceded 2 goals in a single game at home so if Skenderbeu scores first, we may lay them.
- Skenderbeu are yet to draw in 8 Europa League matches.
- I may consider a 2-0 2-1 correct score from a trading perspective today.
16:00 - Maccabi Tel Aviv v KR Reykjavik - 1.2 Maccabi
- Israel v Iceland. The question is, how on earth do we gauge these teams?
- Maccabi has yet to concede, albeit 1 2 legger v Tirana from Albania.
- Historically Maccabi tel Aviv are excellent at home in the Europa League.The only recent loss was a 3-4 v Zenit St Petersburg.
- Note 4 2-1 results in their last 7.
- So far, KR have yet to concede v SJK.
- Losses away to Rosenborg and Grasshopper suggests struggles today (as does the odds).
- With so many 2-1's, I would look to oppose KR if KR scored first today.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv could score 2 goals at least today.
17:30 - Brondby v VPS - 1.2 Brondby
- Denmark v Finland in this Europa League match.
- Brondby's recent defeats in the Europa League came v Hertha Berlin and Panathanaikos. I would suggest Finnish leagues are not as competitive as the German Bundesliga and Greek Super League.
- VPS beat Slovenian side Olimpija 1-0 and 0-1 and domestically have been keeping clean sheets.
- VPS may offer some resistance if they can translate their Finnish form to this match but Brondby should not lose today at home.
18:00 - Apollon Limassol v Zaria Balti - 1.18 Apollon
- Cyprus v Moldova in this Europa League match.
- Tough to gauge this as, on an International level, these 2 countries are minnow countries.
- Last year, Apollon went out of the Europa League v Grasshoppers, with a 2-1 loss and 3-3 draw at home. So they have goals in them.....against the correct opponents.
- Zaria a complete unknown. I will be honest here. I do not follow Moldovan football. So far, in the Europa League, Zaria won 2-1 then away Sarajevo won 2-1. Zaria went through on penalties.
- The market expects Apollon to score 3 goals at least today. Note the market does get early round Europa League matches wrong because it is a fat-assed guess.
18:30 - Valletta v Utrecht - 1.42 Utrecht
- Maltese side Valletta play a known team to us, Utrecht, from the Dutch Eredivisie.
- So far, Valletta beat a San Marino side in the Europa League.Utrecht were last in the Europa League in 2010 and 2013 and to be fair they played the likes of Liverpool, Napoli and did not win a match.
- You get the feeling that, despite being a weak league when compared to, say, the Premiership, the Dutch Eredivisie should be a more competitive and better level league than the Maltese league.
- On that basis, I think Utrecht should be capable of getting that key away goal today. I will be laying Valletta if Valletta score first.
18:45 - Progres Niedercorn v A.E.L. - 1.45 A.E.L
- Luxembourg v Cyprus here.
- I have never heard of the first team.
- Well, well, well, this Progres side beat Rangers (yes the Scots Rangers) 2-0 at home to go through in 2 legs.
- AEL were last in the Europa League in 2014. So far they scored 10 goals in 2 legs v a Gibraltar team.
- What's with Progres? Did they catch a ring rusty Rangers out? Or is this true form?
- The market remains unimpressed and the away side is the strong market leader.
- Yet again, I do not have a strong angle.
19:30 - Sturm Graz v Mladost Podgorica - 1.29 Sturm Graz
- This is Austria v Montenegro.
- 2011, 2013 and 2015 see the last time Sturm Graz was in the Europa League.
- In those years, Sturm failed to win.
- Mladost beat Armenian side Gandzasar home and away so far in this Europa League campaign.
- Sturm Graz has been playing a good amount of friendlies so should be match-ready. They had a scoring and conceding habit there though.
- Another match where we cannot hope to be able to gauge these teams. How do the market makers manage?
19:45 - Aberdeen v Siroki Brijeg - 1.55 Aberdeen
- Aberdeen are the second best team in the Scottish Premier League. Rangers are the second-best in waiting as they adjust to life in the SPL again.
- Rangers, by the way, crashed out to a Luxembourg side. Hardly a ringing endorsement for football in Scotland.
- Siroki are a Bosnian side. I repeat myself. How on earth can we gauge these 2 leagues and teams?
- Last year, Aberdeen drew with Maribor 1-1 and lost 1-0 away to Mirabor, a Slovenian side.
- Siroki went through v a Kazak side.
- Aberdeen are unbeaten at home in the Europa League in their last 6 matches.
- There is a hint that Aberdeen could handle this Bosnian side today. I must repeat that we simply know nothing of the capabilities of this side. And making presumptions? Well, ask a Rangers fan.
19:45 - Cork City v AEK Larnaca - 2.76 AEK
- Friday DRT'ers know Cork City are THE team in the Irish Premier Division. They are certainly not lacking match fitness and are not used to losing within their domestic league.
- AEK are a Cypriot side and yet again are tough to evaluate.
- Cork City continued their goal scoring with 6 goals in 2 legs v Levadia Tallin of Estonia.
- AEK beat Lincoln Red Imps of Gibraltar.
- Well, I know Cork City well and they are superb in Ireland. AEK are an unknown entity in comparison.
- The market cannot split the sides. Maybe I am biased but Cork at home could be a force.
- Last year, AEK did beat Spartak Moscow but only beat Cliftonville of Northern Ireland 2-3 after going 2-0 down. AEK may be vulnerable today?
20:00 - Ferencvaros v FC Midtjylland - 2.38 FC
- Hungary v Denmark. I do like FC Midtjylland as they tend to have an air of reliability in European competition. I stand to be corrected as I look at the form now.
- Last year Midtjylland were solid until losing to Turkish side Osmanlispor. Midt had little problems with Derry City in this Europa League campaign.
- In 5 of their last 6 away matches in the Europa League, FC Midtjylland has scored.
- So far this year, Ferencvaros beat Jelgava home and away (Latvian side).
- Ferencvaros are yet to draw at home in the Europa League albeit spread from 2004, 2005, 2011, 2014 and 2015, 2017. A sign of specific European competition tactics?
- Ferencvaros are liable to conceding at home and I would enter this match thinking FC Midt could score so note any 0-0 late on or any FC Midt loss.