DRT Daily Research Bulletin, May 11, 2017
Wow! 2-0 up in no time. The lay of Real Madrid at 1.02 to qualify was looking rather tasty! Did you trade out at 1.24? Real Madrid rather inevitably scored. It's the turn of the Europa League today and the home sides are favoured.
16:30 - HJK v Ilves - 1.4 HJK
- HJK tend to win head to heads although 2 of the last 3 were 1-0.
- This is 1st v 2nd in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.
- HJK lost their last match of 6 this season. At home HJK are strong, with 2 wins and a 1-1 draw. HJK wins were to nil.
- We have not seen a 0-0 at halftime in an HJK match yet.
- HJK are yet to concede at halftime at home.
- 5 matches so far for Ilves. 3 wins in 4 matches for them. 1-2 and 0-1 away.
- Ilves failed to score only once.
- Only 1 away win for Ilves was against the current bottom side.
- At Finland to Norway, Sweden, Ireland as a summer league worth following.
- It is early in the season. So early on, I do not think HJK can tolerate 2 consecutive losses so will lay Ilves if Ilves score first.
- HJK look strong at home and are unlikely (albeit only 3 matches) to concede 2 goals.
- Ilves only win was against current bottom of the league.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market - HJK are yet to have see a 0-0 at halftime.
18:00 - Orgryte v GAIS - 2.76 Orgryte
- 2 consecutive 0-0's in head to heads.
- This is 10th v 9th in the Swedish Superettan.
- There are some familiar names in this league which is the Swedish equivalent to the English Championship.
- The season is only 6 matches old. I will occasionally go to this league over the summer, particularly with matches featuring Gefle, Atvitabergs, Helsingborgs.
- 2-1, 2-1, 1-1 for Orgryte at home this season. Will this pattern continue?
- Orgryte have conceded in all 6 matches this season.
- 2 consecutive score draws for Orgryte.
- GAIS have the same form as Orgryte, 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats.
- GAIS have had 3 2-1 scorelines in their last 4, with 2 consecutive 2-1 wins.
- Far too few matches to get any strong angles. There is an argument for both teams to score. Back 2-1/1-2 as a trading angle? If Orgryte continue scoring and conceding at home, and if GAIS continue their 2-1 pattern.
20:05 - Man Utd v Celta Vigo - 1.59 Man Utd
- I think Man Utd intentions were made clear for this Europa League 2nd leg semi-final match, in their loss to Arsenal. They did seem to be prioritising this match.
- It was a typical Mourinho masterclass in how to play an away first leg. 0-1 or 1-1 is what is required. 0-1 it was. Away goal in the bag. First team out tonight to finish the job.
- In their last Europa League match where the first leg was away, 2nd at home, United posted 2 1-1 draws bringing the match to extra time. They will take a 1-1 tonight I suspect as long as United score first.
- 0-1-0-0-0-1 conceded by Man Utd in the Europa League at home. Solid.
- Celta Vigo have lost their last 5 matches in all competitions, failing to score in 4 of those matches.
- 0-2, 0-0, 0-2 and 1-1 for Celta in their last 4 away Europa League matches but they have not met a marquee team like Man Utd who, let's remember, are usually Champions League.
- This is Celta's first Europa League since 2007 and frankly they have been very lucky (until now) in who they have met.
- I cannot see anything other than Man Utd qualifying this evening, be it a 1-0 or a 1-1. I would lay Celta Vigo if Celta scored first but domestically they are having trouble even scoring.
20:05 - Lyon v Ajax - 1.69 Lyon
- The first leg research pointed to both teams scoring, which is a trait for Lyons, but it did not foresee a 4-1 Ajax win.
- While Lyon have that away goal, they have hope. They require a 3-0 home win in order to go through in the easiest fashion possible.
- Lyon at home did beat another dutch side AZ 7-1 in the Europa League. They also scored 4 goals against Roma. That scoreline was 4-2.
- They beat Besiktas 2-1.
- As you see, Lyon are maintaining that scoring and conceding habit. And that could be costly with an Ajax away goal this evening.
- In the last round, Ajax beat Schalke 2-0. Schalke won the 2nd home leg 2-0 to bring the match into extra time. There is a precedent here therefore for Ajax winning and then losing the away leg. Remember Lyon only need 3 goals.
- Lyon scored 3 goals at home in the league, albeit conceding 2 goals.
- Ajax are layable at 1.22 in the 'to qualify market'. Nowhere near as enticing as Real Madrid's 1.02 but it could give us a trading angle.
- Other markets? Match odds and over 2.5 goals Lyon (if the market fleshes out) as another trading angle. My concern here is that the market is illiquid.