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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, June 11, 2015

Review of yesterday's matches.

AEK were 1.5 odds , so William Hill told us and indeed this was reflected early on at Betfair. At kick-off time, AEK Athens odds were 2.4! What a leap and obviously some news had leaked out that AEK were playing the tea-ladies up front. Olympiakos Volou won 1-0 and I left this well alone. The GAIS v Utsiktens match was excellent. Utsiktens scored first, lay them., GAIS won 5-2. There was a goal, infact 7 goals, before halftime so I hope you layed the 0-0 halftime score as I suggested. Both teams scored in the Valladolid match but I was not 100% confident as this was the 1st of 2 legs. Switzerland v Liechtenstein was 3-0 and a goal before halftime. Laying the 0-0 halftime score was successful as was my correct score punt. CHA-CHING! Did you lay Germany when they scored first, as I advised? If so, then collect! Germany scored first, USA won 1-2! Excellent short priced lay. Note that by delaying until Germany scored first, we are laying them at far shorter than the 1.45 odds. On to today...

Odds taken from www.willhill.com. The Betfair coupons were not up until the day before the matches. There will be price discrepancies so please look at the Betfair odds.

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches.

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised.

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

08:30 UK Portugal U20 v New Zealand U20 - 1.17 home

Standout Stats

  • No recent head to heads.
  • THis is the U20 World Cup being held in New Zealand.
  • 3 consecutive World Cup wins so far for Portugal v Senegal 3-0, Qatar 0-4 and Colombia 1-3.
  • So far this World Cup, NZ have lost to USA 0-4, drawn 0-0 with Ukraine u20 and beat Myanmar 1-5.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Little to go on. Clearly though there are goals in this Pork and Cheese side and that should enable that 1.17 quote to accurately translate to 3/4 goals minimum and a possible win to nil. Do expect a goal before halftime so you early risers can lay the 0-0 halftime score.
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11:00 UK Japan v Iraq - 1.36 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-1 to Japan in a head to head in 2015 follows 2 1-0 wins for Japan in 2012 and 2013 World Cup qualifiers.
  • Japan have been really solid in friendlies of late, winning their last 4, and 11 of their last 13 friendlies. Losses came against Brazil and Uruguay.
  • Similarly, Japan have won 11 of 13 home friendlies. They have scored 6-2-2-5 recently.
  • Iraq have beaten Congo twice in friendlies recently. Prior to that , no wins in 7, scoring 0-1-0-1-0-0-0.
  • No win in 11 away friendlies, scoring 0-0-0-1-1-0-0-1-1-0-0-0.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This seems a case of , if Japan score, they win. Iraq are poor infront of goal.  If 0-0 for a while, keep faith that Japan will score. They are solid at home in friendlies.
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1pm - Hong Kong v Bhutan  - 1.07 home

Standout Stats

  • All I can say is Bhutan must be **** if Hong Kong are priced at 1.07!
  • This is a world cup qualifier asia
  • Hong Kong have 3 consecutive losses v Turkmenistan, Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia.
  • Hong Kong have failed to score in their last 2 home matches v Turkmenistan and Saudi Arabia.
  • In World Cup qualifiers, Bhutan beat Sri Lanka 0-1 and Sri Lanka again 2-1

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A case of faith in the odds here as Hong Kong are pants and Bhutan, it seems, are Pants-er!
  • 1.07 suggests goals before halftime and a 3/4 goals haul at least for Hong Kong.
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1pm - Philippines v Bahrain  - 1.59 away

Standout Stats

  • This is a world cup qualifier Asia.
  • 2-1 to Bahrain recently in head to heads in March 2015.
  • This is the first 2015 World Cup qualifier asia. So we have no recent form to go by.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Bahrain recently played Thailand in a friendly and drew 1-1.
  • Nothing to go on here bar the recent head to head in March and the market which suggests Bahrain should have not lose today.
  • Lay Philippines if they score first.
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5pm - Moldova U21 v Malta U21  - 1.35 home

Standout Stats

  • This is the Uefa U21 Championship.
  • No head to heads.
  • No draw in 7 matches for Moldova u21.
  • 3 losses in their last 4 matches v Finland u21,England u21, Belgium u21.
  • A 0-3 loss to England in Moldova's last home match.
  • 13 consecutive losses for Malta u21 part of a dire run of 34 losses in 40 matches.
  • 7 consecutive away losses for Malta u21 saw them fail to score in their last 4, and concede 2-4-5-5.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Moldova u21 are a poor side but Malta u21 are dire and the market has factored this in. Expectation therefore for a home win and let that be your angle in today.
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19:00 UK Real Zaragoza v Girona - 2.5 home (2.76 Zaragoza home)

Standout Stats

  • 1-1 on 15th May 2015 saw Zaragoza score first and Girona  equalise late on.
  • This is a promotion play-off. between 4 sides. This is the 1st of 2 legs , 11th June and 14th June.
  • Only once in recent matches has a team kept a 2 goal gap . Head to heads are typically a one-goal-in-it.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This is the first of 2 legs in the Promotion play -off final and I cannot get an angle in. Best to wait until the 2nd leg on the 14th June where we will have the scoreline from this match as a starting point.
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19:45 UK England U21 v Belarus U21 - 1.2 home

Standout Stats

  • This is a friendly and I am not sure whether it is being played in England.
  • There are no head to heads.
  • Only 4 recent friendlies for England, 3 wins v Portugal, Czechs and Germany and a 2-3 loss v France.
  • Belarus have played the likes of Kazakhstan and turkmenistan recently so this is a marked step up.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Little to go on. This is a massive step up for Belarus U21 today and if at home, I expect England u21 to prevail. As ever, lay the away side if they score first.
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21:00 UK Spain v Costa Rica - 1.22 home

Standout Stats

  • 2-2 the last time these 2 met in 2012. I do remember this as Costa Rica were 2-0 up until the 83rd minute. Cha-ching! A great trading match.
  • Spain are playing at home.
  • 3 consecutive losses for Spain in friendlies v France , Germany and Netherlands saw Spain fail to score.
  • Only 1 loss at home for Spain in friendlies since 2008 came in their last match.
  • All wins there at home since 2008 bar 2 matches.
  • Like Spain, Costa Rica have not won any of their last 3 matches, v Paraguay ( draw and loss), and Colombia 1-0.
  • No win in 3 aways v Uruguay, Panama and Colombia.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Spain have to stop a scoreless run and should do today so enter the match with that angle in mind. Both sides will find this friendly useful as Spain have the Euros and Costa Rica the Copa America.
  • Spain have an amazing home record and are unlikely to lose 2 consecutive home matches in friendlies.
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22:00 UK Germany Women v Norway Women - 1.18 home

Standout Stats

  • 5 Germany wins in the last 6 head to heads. 1-3 in March 2014.
  • Germany started the world cup off well with a 10-0 win v Ivory Coast. Norway beat Thailand ladies 4-0

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • 1.18 odds suggest 3/4 goals minimum and a possible win to nil for the German women who, along with the USA, are set to dominate this World Cup.
  • Sorry for any discrepancy in the odds. 1.28 for Betfair. I do have to look at odds from the bookmakers because I start research early because of the work load.
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