Apologies yesterday. I could not get to a computer as I was travelling all day. Nothing missed though as it was Copa Del Rey and that is what we have today as well as the Portugeuse Taca De Portugal (cup). The weekend will be busy. The Barcelona and Porto matches would be my 2 to focus on were I to play today. There have been some good angles recently for 1.15 shots (Barca are 1.15 shots today). Recently, Man City 0-1 down at halftime and won 2-1; Tottenham 0-0 at halftime won 3-0. So let's hope Celta Vigo are up for it!
Live chat will certainly return Saturday.
At 18:30 today, Sevilla play their second leg clash with Cadiz. Sevilla hold a 0-2 lead from the first leg Sevilla are 1.36 favourites today. Cadiz need to match the 0-2 in order to bring this match to parity. We saw with Atl Madrid the other day who held a 0-4 lead, that they did not let up in the second leg which they won 3-0 at home. Will we see this from Sevilla today? I would lay Cadiz if Cadiz scored first as I would expect a response from Sevilla.
18:30 - Levante v Espanyol - 2.62 Espanyol
- 1-2 Levante from the first leg in what was a very tight match only separated by a Levante penalty.
- Only 4 wins in 20 matches for Levante includes that prior win v Espanyol in the first leg.
- Levante are having a hard time of it at home too, they have not won in 7 matches and failed to score that 2nd goal in those 7 matches.
- Levante are up for the cup, having beaten and drawn against Girona before that win v Espanyol.
- Only Barcelona has beaten Levante in their last 7 cup matches at home. 3 draws in 4 though and 2 1-1 draws and funnily enough, 1-1 entered my thoughts today as that would have been the scoreline minus that Levante penalty in the first leg.
- One of those 1-1's was actually a home cup 1-1 v Espanyol in 2015.
- A nice flurry of 1-0 wins recently for Espanyol in the league was interrupted by that loss to Levante.
- Only 1 win in 13 aways for Espanyol in all competitions was a 0-1 v Malaga.
- Only 2 wins in 12 cup matches suggest Espanyol may not prioritise this competition, or of course not have the quality to go deep. One of those wins was a 2-1 v Levante!
- 4 draws in 5 aways in the cup for Espanyol. 3 were ....1-1.
- I do like Espanyol's recent league form. Keeping the likes of Malaga and Atl Madrid from scoring and then nicking a 1-0 win is very decent defensively. I am not sure if Espanyol are up for the cup. 1-1 comes up an awful lot but will not suffice today for Espanyol if they seek to progress. I would back 1-1 pre match but frankly this is a match I am only researching because it is a quiet day!
20:30 - Barcelona v Celta Vigo - 1.15 Barcelona
- This is the second leg match I had ear-marked. The market had Barcelona at over evens for the first leg and that proved very accurate as the match finished 1-1. It was a Barcelona side without Suarez, Messi, ter Stegen, and a whole raft of the first team.
- 5-0 and 2-2 to Barcelona in the last 2 home head to heads in 2017 and that former scoreline is in line with a 1.15 odds quote today.
- All I can hope for today is a Man City v Bristol City type of scoreline where Bristol City led at halftime and Man City won with a 90th minute Sergio Aguero goal!
- Team news will be very important today. It was a second string Barca side at Celta in the first leg. I suspect we will see the big guns at least on the bench today to give the scoreline a nudge if things are tight.
- On a strict reading of the market, Barcelona are expected to score 3+ goals today (a bit like Tottenham v Wimbledon recently - 0-0 at halftime, 3-0 fulltime). I can only hope that Celta hold out to halftime so we can create an element of value, or even score first!
20:30 - Moreirense v Porto - 1.26 Porto
- This is the Taca de Portugal and on a quiet day is worth researching given it features a renewed Porto.
- Fascinating recent head to heads have seen the home side win each of the last 5 encounters. 2-2, 1-0, 3-1 Moreirense at home last 3 head to heads.
- Recent form home and away - only 1 loss in 5 matches was v Benfica; 2-2-3-2-0 goals scored recently - note they did not score v top team Benfica.
- Recent form at home - only 3 losses in 17 matches; since February 2017 only lost at home to top 4 teams bar one loss ; 2-5-1-2-2-3-0 goals scored at home recently.
- Taca form home and away - since 2011, 100% over 1.5 goals in cup matches;
- Recent Taca form at home - both teams scored in the last 3 home.
- Recent form home and away - unbeaten in 17 matches; 8 consecutive wins scoring 2+ goals in each match.
- Recent form away - only 4 losses in 30 matches away - 2 were in the Champions league and 2 were (drum roll please) v Moreirense!!!!
- Taca form home and away - unbeaten in 12 matches; 6-3-4 goals scored in 2017 cup matches.
- Recent Taca form away - 8 consecutive clean sheets. Admittedly have played some lower league teams.
- Porto are having a great season and are worthy favourites but the value must be in laying any Porto lead. Look at head to heads. The only Portugeuse team to have beaten Porto when Porto play away in the last 30 matches is Moreirense, not once but twice!!