Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Nice to get the 5-0 in for Belarus yesterday. Always a good sign when a strong favourite scores a 1st minute goal. Greece were tough to score against. My girlfriend's handbag maker 'Kostas Fortounis' was the scorer to secure the 0-1. Good call Finland. Dudelange thrived in the Europa League, now Luxembourg win 4-0? This must be the muddling world of Trump! Interesting to delve into English League One and Two. I do, though, prefer the reliability of Elite European League Football.
The ever-exciting UEFA Nations League kicks off again today. The odds below were taken from Bet365 as I like to start the research early in the week, so may differ slightly from current Betfair exchange odds. Most matches today are very hard to call, so when they are very hard to call.....call on the in-play stats (bet365 mobile / betmaid / totalcorner.com, williamhill.com) Standouts? Latvia are powder-puff up front so do expect Georgia to eventually get the win if 0-0 for a while. France have an excellent record v Netherlands. Germans do not take friendlies seriously. Trust them today?

UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE (UNL)

14:00 - Ukraine v Slovakia - 2.08 Ukraine

  • 2-1 Ukraine in a recent friendly head to head.
  • Ukraine are unbeaten in 6 matches. 1-2 v Czechs in their first UNL match.
  • Ukraine scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 5 wins and 2 losses to nil for Ukraine at home recently. They lost to Croatia and Malta.
  • Only 1 draw in 15 matches for Slovakia. Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches for Slovakia.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats for Slovakia.
  • Ukraine's last home match was a 2-1 win v Slovakia. Is that enough to side with the home side today?

17:00 - Denmark v Wales - 1.99 Wales

  • Last time these 2 met was in 2008.
  • There is a question mark as to whether Denmark's issues with their players is sorted out. The market says yes. Slovakia were 1.09 favourites last match.
  • With that unknown factor for Denmark, I will not research this one. Follow via the in-play stats.

17:00 - Bulgaria v Norway - 2.8 Bulgaria

  • The market is immediately off-putting here.
  • Last head to head 2005.
  • 3 wins in 4 for Bulgaria albeit v Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan and Slovenia. Not sure how to evaluate that opposition compared with Norway.
  • 7 wins and 2 0-1 losses v France and Bosnia in their last 9 at home. Bulgaria look good at home.
  • 5 consecutive wins for Norway came v Australia, Albania, Iceland, Panama and Cyprus. Again how to compare that lot with Bulgaria.
  • 2 teams in good ultra recent form makes this as tough to call as the market suggests.

17:00 - Georgia v Latvia - 1.58 Georgia

  • Latvia's dire performance v Andorra tells you all you need to know. 0-0.
  • 5-0 Georgia last time these 2 met.
  • 5 wins, a draw and a loss last 7 matches for Georgia. All 5 wins to nil. The loss.....v Luxembourg.
  • Only 2 losses for Latvia v Andorra and Estonia.
  • I cannot see Georgia losing this one. I would suggest a win to nil Georgia.

17:00 - Macedonia v Armenia - 2.04 Macedonia

  • Last head to head 2011.
  • Only Spain has beaten Macedonia in their last 12 matches. Good stuff!!
  • Not consistently strong opponents though - Leichtenstein, Gibraltar, Finland Albania...
  • Only 1 loss in 6 at home was v Spain.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 for Armenia was v Lithuania. 0-0 v Estonia and Moldova.
  • 2 teams who perform well v lesser sides. Hence the recent good form for both, making it tough to evaluate just what these 2 have achieved.

19:45 - France v Netherlands - 1.52 France

  • 5 consecutive France wins in head to heads.
  • Only 1 defeat for France since 13th June 2017. 7 wins and a draw in their last 8 home matches. (I say 'home', a few of these were World Cup).
  • Only 2 losses in 14 matches for Netherlands were v England and France (4-0).
  • Despite good recent form, France at home in World Cup winning year will be expected to win and win easily.

19:45 - Cyprus v Slovakia - 1.95 Slovakia

  • Last met 2012.
  • 7 losses and a 0-0 last 8 matches for Cyprus.
  • They failed to score last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 6 for Slovenia came v Montenegro.
  • Cyprus are slightly worse than Slovakia based on recent form. Expect Slovakia not to lose. Remember that the Cypriots have trouble even scoring so lay Cyprus if they score first.

19:45 - Leichtenstein v Gibraltar - 1.38 Leichtenstein

  • Only very rarely indeed will you see Leichtenstein as 1.38 favourites. Take a photo! Show the Grandkids!
  • In-play stats here. Gibraltar are the new minnows.
  • If someone like Estonia beats Gibraltar 6-0 then we know they are not much cop, but then Leichtenstein lost 0-1 to Andorra lately! Yikes.

FRIENDLY

19:45 - Germany v Peru - 1.25 Germany

  • Only 1 win in 7 friendlies for Germany came v Saudi Arabia. It seems the Germans do not concern themselves with the result in friendlies.
  • To be fair they have met the likes of England, Brazil, France and Spain in recent friendlies.
  • 0-0-0-2-1-1-1 conceded by Germany at home recently in friendlies suggests Peru are layable if scoring first.
  • Only 1 loss in 11 friendlies for Peru came v Netherlands last match.
  • We should expect a German win. Value seekers? Lay Germany if Germany score first given their very poor recent friendly form.

ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE

12:00 - Oxford United v Coventry City - 2.56 Oxford

  • A rare excursion to this league.
  • The home team has won each of the last 4 head to heads.
  • A poor start from both sides.
  • 4 defeats, a home win and a draw for Oxford.
  • Loss, Draw, Win, Loss, Draw, Loss for Coventry.
  • Coventry have seen 5 0-0's at halftime and only one at fulltime. That is an angle in if 0-0 at halftime, particularly as Oxford United have not kept a clean sheet.

SWEDISH SUPERETTAN

14:00 - Norrby v Frej - 1.99 Norrby

  • 3-0, 1-2 Norrby and 2-2 last 3 head to heads. Norrby clearly favoured on that basis.

Norrby (12th)

  • Only 5 wins.
  • 5 losses and 2 draws last 7 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in the last 10 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 3 home wins v 5th, 13th and 5th.
  • Opponents have scored first in 7/10 home matches.

Frej (11th)

  • 3 wins followed by 3 defeats last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away matches.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Away wins came v 14th and 6th.
  • Both teams have scored in 70% away matches.
  • 7 goals conceded away last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • Norrby are favoured via the head to heads.
  • Neither side has had a 0-0 home for home side and away for away side.
  • Opponents score first in 70% home matches for Norrby. I must lay Frej of Frej manage to score first today.

16:30 - Orgryte v Oster - 2.46 Orgryte

Orgryte (8th)

  • Only 1 win in 12 matches came last match.
  • No win in 6 at home.
  • Only 1 win at home v the top 10.
  • Beat Osters 1-3 away this season.

Osters (7th)

  • 2 consecutive defeats  but the only 2 in 10 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away wins ended with a loss last match.
  • No draw in 11 away.
  • only 1 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Osters are favoured based on recent form. Orgryte though did beat Osters 1-3 away earlier this season. Hence I suppose the fact the market cannot make its mind up.