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Time: May 9, 2021 02:00 PM London

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English Premier League

12:00 - Wolves v Brighton - 2.30 Brighton

  • 12th v 14th.
  • 4 matches = 12 points remain.
  • Wolves have nothing to play for. Safe from relegation and no European Club competition football. Wolves I suppose do have a top 10 berth to aim for - looks good on the Manager's C.V.
  • Brighton are 10 points above the relegation zone and are highly likely to be safe from harm, albeit not mathematically so.

Wolves

  • Wolves last 3 wins were 1-0 only. Loss, Loss, Win, Loss at home for Wolves.
  • In 9 of their last 10 matches, Wolves failed to score that 2nd goal which may blunt them today....hence the 3 1-0 wins recently.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home, only 1 at fulltime.
  • 3-3 last head to head.

Brighton

  • A vital 3 points against Leeds latest. 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in the 3 matches prior to the Leeds win.
  • Draw, Loss, Win, Loss, Draw, Loss away recently.
  • Unbeaten away v 10th-18th.

Conclusions

  • Brighton are safe all bar mathematically and a point/win will confirm matters.
  • Wolves have nothing bar a top 10 place to aim for in their remaining matches.
  • Lay a 2nd half 0-0 based on the Wolves.
  • Wolves, if scoring first, look unlikely to follow up so could be layable if scoring first. Brighton will have been delighted to score 2 goals for the first time in a long time v Leeds.

14:05 - Aston Villa v Man Utd - 1.75 Man Utd

  • 10th v 2nd.
  • 5 matches remaining.
  • Man Utd can still catch Man City who will have to conveniently lose all remaining matches in order to hand the title to United.
  • Aston Villa are 8 points behind a top 6 spot. Highly unlikely they will achieve this. Aston Villa will not be getting relegated.

Aston Villa

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • 2-1-2-2 goals conceded at home recently.
  • Scored and conceded last 5.
  • All defeats at home v the top 6.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.

Man Utd

  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 matches.
  • No defeat in 13 and in 17 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away, 5 at fulltime.
  • 11/14 goals conceded away came 1st half.
  • 15 goals scored away last 1/2 hour of matches.

Conclusions

  • Dead rubber now for Aston Villa who are conceding 2 goals of late.
  • Man Utd did have a 0-0 last match and have had away 0-0's v mid table sides but a win will keep slim title hopes alive.
  • Watch out for 60th+ minute United goals away.

16:30 - West Ham v Everton - 2.30 West Ham

  • 5th v 8th.
  • 4 v 5 matches remaining.
  • West Ham are 3 points shy of 4th spot. Achievable.
  • Everton are 6 points shy of 5th and 8 points shy of 4th. I cannot see results going their way conveniently enough to allow them a European club competition place.

West Ham

  • 2 wins, 2 losses, a win recently.
  • Conceded last 7 and last 3 at home.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 9th and lower.
  • 16/21 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Everton

  • Only 1 win in 7 came away v Arsenal 0-1.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Draw, Win away.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away, only once at fulltime.
  • Only 1 loss away v the top 14.
  • 100% wins away v 6th-13th.

Conclusions

  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • I do like West Ham this season and they do tend to only lose to the elite 6. Can we rely on that today?
  • Everton do have an excellent 100% win record 6th-13th away.

19:00 - Arsenal v West Brom - 1.50 Arsenal

  • 9th v 19th.
  • 4 matches remain.
  • 9 points to 5th in the league are Arsenal.
  • West Brom will remain bottom 3 with a win today and are 10 points shy of safety. Not this time Big Sam, not this time! West Brom are down. 100% wins for West Brom from now on or nothing.

Arsenal

  • 5 wins in 14 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Draw, Loss at home recently.
  • 0-2-0-1-0 goals scored at home recently.
  • Conceded last 6 at home.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime at home, 2 at fulltime.
  • 6 wins and a 1-1 v 17th and lower.

West Brom

  • Only 3 losses in 11 but still in trouble.
  • A loss and 2 score draws last 3 matches.
  • 2-3-2 goals conceded away last 3 matches.

Conclusions

  • Do or die for the Baggies. Their away record is very poor, they are conceding 2+ goals recently but do play an Arsenal side struggling for consistency goals wise at home. The Arse have conceded last 6 at home as well and West Brom could score today.
  • On seasonal form, Arsenal have an excellent win record v the bottom 4 but this is unique circumstances for West Brom.

Spanish La Liga Primera

13:00 - Getafe v Eibar - 2.15 Getafe

  • 15th v 20th.
  • 4 matches = 12 points remain.
  • Getafe are 4 points above the relegation zone and surely must be looking to 3 points v bottom side Eibar.
  • Eibar are 4 points shy of 2nd bottom, 5 points shy of safety. It is imperative for both teams to take the maximum points off their opponents.

Getafe

  • Only 2 wins since 25th January 2021.
  • 3 0-0's and a 0-1 last 4 home matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home, 3 at fulltime.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 17th and lower. 0-0 last head to head.
  • 8/11 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Eibar

  • Won their last match, the first win since 10th January 2021.
  • 6 losses and a draw last 7 away.
  • No win in 12 away. Conceded last 12 away.
  • Only 1 away win v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • A relegation six pointer. Eibar must eye the win to take points off Getafe and stop them building up a gap to the relegation zone.
  • Getafe, well they want to build that gap.
  • Based only on seasonal form (unbeaten home and away v 17th and lower), we'd favour Getafe, but trusting a side with only 2 wins since 25th January 2021 is a tough ask.

15:15 - Valencia v Valladolid - 2.10 Valencia

  • 14th v 16th.
  • 4 matches remain.
  • Valencia have a 6 point buffer over the relegation zone and a win should assure safety today.
  • Needs must for Valladolid who are only one point above the relegation zone.

Valencia

  • No win in 6.
  • Win, Win, Win, Draw, Draw, Loss at home. Loss came v Barcelona latest.
  • 2-2-2-2-1-2 goals scored at home latest.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 and last 5 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Unbeaten at home v 6th and lower.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.
  • 18/27 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 17 goals last 15 mins of matches at home.

Valladolid

  • Only 1 win since 10th January 2021.
  • 8 draws in 12 matches. Avoiding defeat but not benefitting maximally.
  • 4 consecutive score draws.
  • 5 draws in 6 matches away.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • No win in 8 and in 8 away.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away, 2 at fulltime.
  • Only 2 away wins.
  • 10/14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both sides would love the 3 points today. Valencia are scoring 2 goals at home regularly and that is a good foundation v a Valladolid with only 1 win since 10th January 2021.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Slightly favour Valencia here.
  • Both teams to score is a regular habit for both sides.

17:30 - Villarreal v Celta Vigo - 2.00 Villareal

  • 6th v 10th.
  • 4 matches remain.
  • Villareal are in a European Club competition place currently but only a point above 7th and a point below 5th. Champions League places are out of grasp for Villareal.
  • Celta Vigo are safe from relegation. They have slim hopes of a 5th/6th spot but will require a lot to go their way.

Villareal

  • 3 defeats in 5 matches, maybe influenced by the Europa League.
  • 2 consecutive home 1-2 defeats.
  • No draw in 10 and in 6 at home.
  • Scored last 9 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 11 side at home.
  • 0-4 win last head to head.
  • 10 goals scored and 6 goals conceded in the 61st-75th minute of matches at home.

Celta Vigo

  • 2 consecutive wins came at home.
  • 10 losses and a 2-2 home and away v the top 7.
  • 2+ goals conceded in those matches.
  • 13/19 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are equally as poor v the top 7, but who is worst? I really don't like their form. Celta Vigo consistently concede 2 goals away but then Villareal cannot beat a top 11 side!
  • A match to check out in play. I have no strong pre-match angle.

20:00 - Real Madrid v Sevilla - 2.05 Real Madrid

  • 3rd v 4th.
  • 4 matches remain.
  • 4 point gap between these 2 so positions won't be changing post result.
  • Sevilla are 6 points shy of 1st. Real Madrid are 2 points shy of 1st.

Real Madrid

  • Last loss came 30th January 2021.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 6 wins and 2 draws last 8 at home.
  • Unbeaten in 8 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home, only once at fulltime.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.
  • Unbeaten v the top 11.
  • Not conceded that 2nd goal at home v the top 12.

Sevilla

  • 7 wins, a draw and a loss last 9 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • Scored in their last 8 away.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • Loss away v 1st, 1-1 v 2nd.

Conclusions

  • One of those high profile matches where these 2 form sides could cancel each other out.
  • Real Madrid are uncharacteristically keeping clean sheets and Sevilla will find it hard, if seasonal patterns are accurate, to score that 2nd goal today.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0. Sevilla are yet to beat the top 2 away. Are the top 3 an Achilles heel?

German Bundesliga

12:30 - Koln v Freiburg - 2.05 Koln

  • 3 matches remain this season.
  • It is imperative that Koln, 16th, win in order to bring in a couple of other sides into the relegation mix.
  • After the mid week mauling by Hertha, Freiburg still find themselves safe from relegation from hereon in.
  • Koln are on a 2 match winning run v Leipzig and Augsburg, scoring and conceding in each and must be fancied on that basis. 2 home matches remain for Koln, one v Schalke which should be an assured 3 points, but a win today will do just fine.
  • I would quietly fancy Koln today just on those 2 matches and Freiburg's playing in holiday mode.

14:30 - Frankfurt v Mainz - 1.75 Frankfurt

  • 4th v 12th.
  • 3 matches remain.
  • Dortmund (1 point) and to a lesser extent Leverkusen (6 points) are breathing down Frank's neck for that 4th spot. 3 points today should get rid of Leverkusen and leave the remaining 2 top 4 spots to be fought out amongst 3 teams.
  • Mainz are 6 points above relegation and look safe given their excellent recent form. A win today cements that survival.

Frankfurt

  • 2 losses in 3 came away.
  • 8 wins in 9 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in all bar 1 of those.
  • No defeat in 15 at home, scoring in them all.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 0-2 win last head to head.

Mainz

  • 5 wins and 3 draws last 8 matches.
  • 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 away.
  • Unbeaten in 8 and in 6 away.
  • Not beaten top 6 away yet.

Conclusions

  • Points required for different reasons.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • It is an interesting match given Mainz are in such good form yet still fighting for safety. They score and conceded without beating the top 6 and that will be a concern, as may Frank's return to 2 goals at home. Their recent faltering has come away. So both teams to score has a shout here.

17:00 - Hertha Berlin v Arminia Bielefeld - 1.95 Hertha Berlin


Italian Serie A

11:30 - Genoa v Sassuolo - 2.20 Sassuolo

  • 13th v 8th.
  • 4 matches remain.
  • 5 points above relegation are Genoa. Sassuolo realistically cannot get a European place.

14:00 - Benevento v Cagliari - 2.25 Cagliari

  • 18th v 17th.
  • Cagliari are one point above Benevento. This is your typical relegation six pointer. Cagliari could, with a win, drag 3 other teams into the relegation mix. Both sides too, with a win, take points off a relegation rival.
  • Benevento's only win since 9th Jan came v Juventus. Cagliari are the side with the momentum with 3 wins and a draw in 4 matches, beating Roma and drawing with Napoli latest.No win in 10 at home for Benevento.
  • I must favour Cagliari on recent momentum but remember that this is a relegation six pointer!! These sides must take points off each other, their nearest survival rival.

14:00 - Parma v Atalanta - 1.22 Atalanta

  • Stick to Ham! Parma are down. Atalanta cannot catch Inter Milan who are Champions but must retain focus to ensure they get a top 4 berth. Napoli and Lazio are within striking distance and it is very tight indeed for the top 6 places.
  • Only 1 loss since 6th Feb for Atalanta plays 6 losses and a 2-2 last 7 matches for Parma who actually failed to score last match, most unlike them.
  • 2 consecutive away 1-1 draws for Atalanta.
  • Angles? We never know what to expect from Parma, particularly now that they reasonably have nothing to play for. It is all wins from now on for Atalanta.

14:00 - Verona v Torino - 2.30 Torino

  • 10th v 15th.
  • 4 matches remain. Verona are all but safe. It would have to take them losing all remaining matches and Benevento winning all remaining matches, with all other sides inbetween rolling over, to see Verona threatened by relegation.
  • Torino have a game in hand, so 5 matches remaining. They got the win v Parma which assures 2 of the relegation places are filled. Win this game in hand and Torino have one foot in the safety zone.
  • Only 1 win in 9 for Verona, and thankfully earlier points accumulation has saved their season. Only 1 loss in 6 for Torino came v Napoli. 3 wins in 5 matches for Torino. They certainly have improved when needing to do so. Remember, they have a game in hand over some relegation rivals and will hope Verona's minds are elsewhere.
  • Torino have not beaten a top 9 side away but start winning v 11th and lower.
  • Angles? Not too readable but I would always favour the side in need which is Torino.

17:00 - Roma v Crotone - 1.33 Roma

  • Crotone are down. Roma are 7th on 55 points, 9 points shy of 6th place. I don't think Roma can break the top 5, given nearest rival Lazio have a game in hand.
  • Do Roma still have motivation, that's the question? I suppose they must still fight on while a slim chance remains.

19:45 - Juventus v AC Milan - 1.70 Juventus

  • Too high profile a match to research.
  • 3rd v 4th, identical points and these 2 sides' jobs is to retain a top 4 berth. Juventus have Ronaldo to thank for breaking into the top 4 because if they had not, then the manager's job would be on the line.