DRT Daily Research Bulletin, October 8, 2023
A strong coupon. We have the added 'bonus' of this weekend being post-European Club Competition and pre-International Break.
English Premier League
14:00 - Brighton v Liverpool - 2.10 Liverpool
- 5 wins and 2 losses for Brighton. Losses came v West Ham and Aston Villa.
- Win, Loss, Win, Win at home for Brighton. 4-1, 1-3, 3-1, 3-1 at home.
- 100% over 2.5 goals for Brighton.
- Draw, 5 wins and a 2-1 loss v Tottenham. Clearly Liverpool are attracting red cards. Arguably that is down to the aggressive win-back-the-ball tactics. 2 red cards v Tottenham saw the 2-1 defeat, care of an own goal.
- 1-2, 1-3, 2-1 away.
- Both teams to score an obvious starting point. Over 2.5 goals and one of these 2 scoring 2 goals at least for the win.
- Expect at least a goal before halftime.
14:00 - West Ham v Newcastle - 2.15 Newcastle
- West Ham Losses have come v Liverpool and Man City, 3-1. Win, Loss, Win at home for West Ham.
- West Ham have scored in all matches.
- West Ham had only 1 0-0 at halftime, first match of the season.
- Only Man City, Liverpool and Brighton have beaten Newcastle. Like West Ham, it takes a big gun to beat them.
- 3 consecutive Newcastle clean sheets.
- Angles? as befits 2.15 the favourite, this will be a competitive match between 2 sides who are in excellent season-long form, and only tend to lose to in-form, big-name sides. Both teams to score a possible here but calling the winner...?
14:00 - Wolves v Aston Villa - 2.05 Aston Villa
- 4 wins for Wolves came within the first 5 matches. New manager syndrome now does mean only the recent matches are to be accounted for. 1-3 loss v Liverpool, 1-1 away v Luton, 2-1 win at home v pre-Champions League Man City. I am not taking that latter result as influenced by new manager. It is more, for me, down to a pre-Champions League-distracted Man City.
- 5 wins in 6 matches for Aston Villa. Losses came v Newcastle and Liverpool.
- Angles? New Manager Syndrome clouds research form lines. Both teams to score a possible. Just check out those Villa stats. Unai 'Dick' Emery has unlocked goals in Aston Villa.
16:30 - Arsenal v Man City - 2.37 Man City
- A derby-style match if ever there was one. I will leave this to the in-play stats. Remember that you can pick your battles.
German Bundesliga
14:30 - Bayer Leverkusen v Koln - 1.33 Bayer Leverkusen
- Xavi Alonso as this Bayer Leverkusen full of goals and thriving in the Champions League.
- What contrasting form. All wins bar a draw for Bayer Leverkusen. All defeats bar a draw for Koln.
- This looks as obvious as the market suggests. Goals before halftime expected.
16:30 - Bayern Munich v Freiburg - 1.14 Bayern Munich
- 4 wins and 2 2-2 draws for Bayern Munich.
- 3 wins for Freiburg v Hoffenheim, Werder Bremen and Augsburg.
- Bayern came from behind in the Champions League mid week and are reliable enough to get out of trouble here if post-Europa League Freiburg score first. 3+ goals expected of Bayern.
18:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Heidenheim - 1.60 Eintracht Frankfurt
- One of those matches I would characterise as a 'redemption' match for Frankfurt. A win, 4 draws and a loss for Frankfurt. They meet a newly promoted Heidenheim, having beaten newly promoted Darmstadt 1-0 at home.
- 2-3-2-2-4-0 goals conceded by Heidenheim so they'll give a side a chance but in scoring 0-2-2-2-1-1, Heidenheim may be more competitive than expected.
- Frankfurt may have to score 2 goals at least for the first time this season as both teams to score could come in a Heidenheim match.
Spanish La Liga Primera
13:00 - Villarreal v Las Palmas - 1.53 Villareal
- Loss, Loss, Win, Loss at home for Villareal. So why so short? Because Las Palmas are newly promoted. They have failed to score in 5 matches this season but scored 2 goals for the first time last match v Celta Vigo in one of 2 consecutive home wins.
- They have failed to score in all away matches, all defeats. A couple were 1-0.
- Las Palmas could keep things tight but eventually capitulate.
15:15 - Atletico Madrid v Real Sociedad - 1.80 Atletico Madrid
- Identical recent form, 4 wins and a loss last 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid have scored 3 goals in all 3 home matches, both teams scoring.
- Sociedad's only loss came away v Real Madrid, a side Atletico beat 3-1 at home.
- Altetico Madrid have a real goal threat this season and that could be Sociedad's undoing, 0-1-1 goals scored away so far.
17:30 - Alaves v Real Betis - 2.60 Real Betis
- Leave this to the in-play stats - early season and 2.60 the favourite.
17:30 - Celta Vigo v Getafe - 2.00 Celta Vigo
- 3-2-4-2- goals conceded away by Getafe this season. Celta have scored 2 goals twice, albeit away from home.
- Only 1 win Celta who have 3 defeats and a draw at home, scoring 0-0-0-1 goals.
- 3-2 goals scored last 2 away by Getafe may see them competitive v a limp Celta Vigo. It will be interesting to view the stats after a Celta Vigo lead.
20:00 - Granada v Barcelona - 1.35 Barcelona
- 6 wins and 2 draws for Barcelona makes them hard to beat today.
- 3-2-2-5-4-1-1-3 goals conceded by Granada. Got us a lovely play from 3-0 to 3-3 last weekend but I want to illustrate their consistent conceding of goals. This could be a 3+ goal win Barca. The 3-1 Atletico Madrid win over Granada would be a template for this match.
Italian Serie A
11:30 - Monza v Salernitana - 1.73 Monza
- Monza lost away to Inter Milan and Atalanta. Win, Draw, Draw at home. 2 consecutive clean sheets and 2 clean sheets in 3 home matches.
- Salernitana are yet to win, 4 defeats and a draw in 5 matches.
- Monza may fancy this, if they can keep a clean sheet and score 1 goal as they have done in 3/4 recent matches.
14:00 - Frosinone v Verona - 2.30 Frosinone
- Leave this to in-play stats.
14:00 - Lazio v Atalanta - 2.60 Lazio
- This is another of those infamous 'derby-style' matches where, as 2.6 the favourite suggests, anything could happen. Leave to in-play stats or as I tend to do, leave the match alone.
17:00 - Cagliari v Roma - 1.85 Roma
- 5 losses and 2 draws for Cagliari. They conceded 2 goals at least in all defeats.
- They have failed to score in 5 matches.
- Roma are having a poor season. Only 2 wins came at home v Empoli and Frosinone.
- Loss, Draw, Loss away saw both teams score.
- It looks an opportunity for Roma, with Cagliari struggling to score, but this is an uncharacteristically untrustworthy Roma at the moment. Make sure the in-play stats speak to Roma this evening.
19:45 - Napoli v Fiorentina - 1.65 Napoli
- Identical form, 4 wins, a loss and 2 draws.
- Fiorentina lost 4-0 away v Inter Milan and that is the only Achilles Heel, a potential struggle when playing top 3? Other than that, solid start from both teams and the Viola cannot be readily discounted.
- Both teams have scored 2 goals + on 5 occasions this season.
Dutch Eredivisie
11:15 - Zwolle v Feyenoord - 1.28 Feyenoord
- 2 draws and 5 wins Feyenoord. 3+ goals scored last 5 matches. Zwolle have just 2 wins v Almere and Utrecht.
- Conceding 3 goals v Twente and AZ Alkmaar is a template for potential Feyenoord goals today. We tend to see at least a goal before halftime in Feyenoord matches this season.
13:30 - Ajax v AZ Alkmaar - 2.15 Ajax
- Ajax have lost the last 2 'derby style' matches v Feyenoord and Twente. This is another 'derby' style match. I cannot predict the result of these matches. I certainly, for instance, didn't expect Ajax to get spanked royally by Feyenoord.
13:30 - Fortuna Sittard v Twente - 1.91 Twente
- Fortuna's only 2 defeats came last 2 matches, away. 0-0, 2-1, 0-0, 3-1 at home. Which Fortuna turns up today? Both teams to score or 0-0?
- 6 wins and a loss for Twente who are, naturally, the more consistent performers. The market is lukewarm when we have a 6-win team v a 2-win team. I favour Twente but respect the market. 0-0 might be in play given Sittard's home 0-0's.
15:45 - Sparta Rotterdam v PSV Eindhoven - 1.33 PSV
- 2 losses for Sparta came last 2 away matches.
- 2-2, 1-1, 1-0 at home. 2-2 v Feyenoord suggests that Sparta may be more competitive today v another big gun.
- All wins for PSV who have failed to score 3 goals only once. 5 clean sheets in 7 matches and 3+ goals scored last 6 matches.
- Odds look spot on for a PSV good at 3/4 goals and winning. Highly likely we see a PSV lead before halftime.
