Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

See you for a 14:00 live chat today. It is a far quieter day today trading wise. We do have the shorties list as usual at DRT Facebook and there are a lot of lay the 0-0's in the halftime score market.
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6947947406756171009 is the link for the webinar.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Levante v Las Palmas - 1.89 Levante

  • 3-2 and 0-2 Levante in the last 2 head to heads.

Levante (17th)

  • Some breathing space to the relegation zone.
  • 2 draws and 2 wins last 4 matches does help.
  • Conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (40%).
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league, scoring 2 goals on 3 occasions but conceding 2 goals twice.

Las Palmas (18th)

  • No win in 8 matches.
  • No win in 13 away.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away (47%).
  • 1-1 and 1-3 win v bottom 2 away.
  • 23 of 31 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Levante break into the 30+ point mark with a win today. Depor are in greater need of the points.
  • I fear this will be a nervy relegation six pointer here. Levante have only 5 wins this season but did win 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • On that basis, dare we side with the home team's most recent form? Noting Levante have conceded in their last 5 at home, lay Las Palmas if Las Palmas score first?

15:15 - Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid - 1.73 Real Madrid

  • 2-1 Atl Madrid and 0-0 last 2 head to heads.
  • Champions League for Real Madrid and Europa League for Atletico Madrid upcoming.

Real Madrid (3rd)

  • 10 wins, a draw and a loss last 12 matches.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in the last 12 matches.
  • No draw in 13 at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 home matches.
  • Interestingly are yet to beat the top 6 at home.0-3, 2-2, 0-1, 0-1.

Atl Madrid (2nd)

  • 2 consecutive away defeats v Barcelona and Villareal.
  • No draw in 10 away.
  • Loss 1-0 v 1st, 0-0 v 4th and 2-1 v 5th.

Conclusions

  • A high profile derby could repeat the 0-0 earlier this season. Both sides struggle v the top 5 teams so it is tough to call.
  • Lay any late draw as both teams tend to avoid draws.

17:30 - Sociedad v Girona - 1.83 Sociedad

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.

Sociedad (16th)

  • Only 3 wins in 13 did come at home.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match v teams above them in the league.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Girona (8th)

  • Only 3 losses in 12 matches all came away.
  • Scored in their last 7 matches.
  • Unbeaten away v 13th and lower.
  • Unbeaten home and away v teams 16th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Sociedad are highly likely to score and concede and there is an argument for Girona putting in a solid performance given their impeccable unbeaten record v 13th and lower away and 16th and lower home and away.. Slight advantage for me for Girona. I would lay Sociedad if Sociedad scored first.
  • Argument to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. None at home for Sociedad.

19:45 - Valencia v Espanyol - 1.49 Valencia

  • 4 consecutive Valencia wins in head to heads.

Valencia (4th)

  • 7 wins and a draw last 8 matches.
  • 5 wins in 6 home matches - only loss there v Real Madrid.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 home matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 100% wins at home v 6th and lower.
  • Scoring 2+ goals in all bar 1 of the above matches.

Espanyol (13th)

  • Only 2 wins in 12 came at home.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 tells you they are drawing an awful lot of matches.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only win away came v 20th.
  • Failed to score v top 6 away.

Conclusions

  • The market looks right here. If Espanyol continue to struggle just to score v top 6 then it is obvious advantage home side with 5 wins in 6 at home, and 7 wins and a draw last 8 matches. And 3 clean sheets in 4 matches. Possible correct score win to nil -I tend to chose 3 correct scores. 2-0, 3-0 and 1 other.
  • An argument to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Torino v Inter - 2.12 Inter

  • 2-2 and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Torino (10th)

  • 4 losses and 2 wins in the last 6 matches.
  • Solid recent home form, 2 of 3 losses at home since 29th October 2017 have come v the top 2.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime at home (20%).
  • Lost at home v 1st, 2nd and 3rd, 2 0-1 and play 4th today.
  • A whopping 11 goals scored at home in the last 15 mins of the first half.

Inter Milan (4th)

  • Only 3 losses. But clearly off the boil since 9th December where they did not win a match til 11th Feb.
  • Lately are back to winning ways.4 wins, a loss and 2 0-0's last 7 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away (43%).
  • Only 2 wins away v top 12 came v 3rd and 9th.

Conclusions

  • This could be a tight match. Torino only lost 0-1 to the top 3 so are adept v the best at home.
  • Torino are back to winning ways. Rather like Fiorentina and Roma yesterday, where I did not want to play because I could oppose either side, here I can argue for either side.
  • If the match is 0-0 come the 30th minute, you might want to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market looking at Torino's goals before halftime.
  • Probability wise, are we with Inter not to lose? Only 3 losses ALL season.

14:00 - Napoli v Chievo - 1.16 Napoli

  • 0-0 last head to head.No Champions League distractions for Napoli. A must win incase Juventus slip up.

Napoli (2nd)

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 last 3 matches. Off the boil a tad.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home (27%).
  • Only home losses and losses all season v the top 3.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Chievo (14th)

  • Only 3 wins since 25th October 2017.
  • 8 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 14 and last 10 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away (40%).
  • All defeats away v top 9.

Conclusions

  • Expectation for Napoli to score 3+ goals today.
  • Napoli should be scoring before halftime but have scored 0-1-1 last 3 matches. Slight concern. V teams in Chievo's position they tend towards 3 goals at least.

14:00 - Crotone v Bologna - 2.22 Crotone

  • 2-3 Crotone in the last head to head.

Crotone (18th)

  • Relegation six pointer territory for Crotone.
  • 6 losses and a shock 4-1 win v Sampdoria in the last 7 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home (30%).
  • Did beat 8th, 9th and draw with 10th at home but as befits a struggling team, they have lost against the likes of 12th and 13th.

Bologna

  • 2 losses and 2 draws last 4 matches.
  • 0-1-1-0-1 goals scored last 5 matches away.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • 5 wins and a 1-0 loss away v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • On form, Bologna should not lose today but remember that Crotone are desperate for points and are unbeaten v 8th, 9th and 10th. Bologna are excellent v teams 12th and lower. Is that enough to side with them today? With Crotone's 4 clean sheets this season, we should expect them to concede at some point.

17:00 - Udinese v Lazio - 1.75 Lazio

  • 3 consecutive Lazio wins in head to heads.

Udinese (13th)

  • 7 consecutive losses.
  • 3 consecutive home losses.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side at home.

Lazio (5th)

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches came v top 2 team Juventus.
  • Scored in their last 5 away.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten away v 8th and lower.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all away v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • On recent form we are with Lazio not to lose. On season long form, Lazio have scored 2+ goals away v 8th and lower and we must be with them if this pattern continues. Back Lazio if Udinese take the lead.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on both teams' % stats.

19:45 - AC Milan v Sassuolo - 1.46 AC Milan

  • Milan have won the last 3 head to heads.

AC Milan (6th)

  • Only 1 loss in 12 matches was v Juventus.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (35%).
  • Unbeaten at home v 9th and lower.

Sassuolo (16th)

  • 3 draws and a win last 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away (33%).
  • 5 losses and a 1-1 away v top 8.

Conclusions

  • Gattuso has Milan firing. I am with them today. Lay Sassuolo if Sassuolo score first. Expectation for 2+ goals for Milan today.
  • Relatively high % 0-0 at halftime both sides. Glass half full? 2/3rd of matches saw a goal at least before halftime.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:30 - Utrecht v ADO Den Haag - 1.58 Utrecht

  • 1-1 and 0-3 Utrecht in the last 2 head to heads.

Utrecht (5th)

  • Only 2 losses in 12 matches came away within their last 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 11 at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 1st in the league.
  • 8 wins and 2 draws in 10 matches at home v 6th and lower.

ADO Den Haag (9th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 7 away matches.
  • 5 losses and a draw away v top 7 teams failing to score in 5 of those 6 matches.

Conclusions

  • On form we must favour Utrecht not to lose. ADO have a dire record v top 7 away and even have trouble scoring.
  • With no defeat in 11, that should continue for Utrecht. Utrecht have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches so lay them if they score first.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Dortmund v Stuttgart - 1.61 Dortmund

  • 2-1 Stuttgart in the last head to head.

Dortmund (3rd)

  • Only 1 loss in 13 matches was against Bayern Munich.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Outside of the top 4 at home, Dortmund have only 1 loss.

Stuttgart (8th)

  • 5 wins and 3 draws in the last 8 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • Have lost all bar 1 matches away v top 12.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Dortmund should not lose today. Stuttgart, despite being a top 10 side, have only 1 away win v the top 12.
  • Stuttgart are in good form recently but contextually, I draw your attention to what I noted above.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Dortmund.

17:00 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Hoffenheim - 2.62 Frankfurt

  • The odds suggest an imponderable.
  • 1-0 Hoffenheim and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Frankfurt (6th)

  • All 4 defeats this year have come away from home.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime all season.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Good scoring v the top 9 at home - 0-2-2-2-0-2-2 goals.

Hoffenheim (7th)

  • 2-3-3-6 goals scored in recent matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches away.
  • Scored in their last 13 matches.
  • 5-2-2-2-3 goals conceded away v top 8 teams.

Conclusions

  • Hoff are set up to concede at least 2 goals today if their season long form v top 8 teams continues.
  • I would look to back a 3-2/2-3 as a trading angle here.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Low % stats for these 2 and the expectation for goals.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Hamilton v Celtic - 1.19 Celtic

  • The season proper ends in 2 matches and apparently splits into 2 groups - Champions League/Europa League places and then Relegation places.
  • Celtic for me have been unmotivated these last few matches. No surprise to see 2 0-0's in their last 3 matches.
  • Hamilton have 3 consecutive defeats failing to score in 2 of those. A Hamilton win will really help in their avoidance of a relegation play-off fight.
  • Not a match I can trust Celtic to play to their optimum in.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - Nice v Rennes - 1.95 Nice

  • 2-2 and 0-1 Nice last 2 head to heads.

Nice (7th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches. Only PSG beat them in the last 6 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home (19%).
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Loss v top 4, playing 5th today.

Rennes (5th)

  • Unbeaten in 7 matches with 4 wins, all 2-0.
  • 3 0-2 wins in 4 aways.
  • Scored in their last 11 away.
  • Scored 2+ goals in their last 4 away matches.
  • Mixed form away.Wins v 3rd, 4th and 6th for instance and losses v 16th and 17th.
  • 16 of 25 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I don't like teams with muddling form - see Rennes away. If they can beat top 6 teams but lose to 16th and 17th, it suggests an unreadable team.
  • Rennes have scored in their last 11 away matches though so they could score today, particularly as they have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
  • Both sides are in good recent form which makes picking a winner difficult.

16:00 - Metz v Lyon - 1.5 Lyon

  • 4 consecutive Lyon wins in head to heads.

Metz (20th and bottom)

  • 4 score draws in 5 matches.
  • No win in 8 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home 1-1 draws.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home (27%).
  • All defeats v top 4 home and away.

Lyon (4th)

  • 3 score draws and 3 wins in the last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 17 matches.
  • Scored in their last 13 away and conceded last 5 away.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 1 loss away outside of the top 2.

Conclusions

  • Do expect Lyon to score at some point here. Metz have conceded in their last 10 and Lyon have scored in their last 13 away.
  • Metz do tend towards defeats v the top 4 so that should be an expectation should Metz score first today.

20:00 - Marseille v Montpellier - 1.54 Marseille

  • 5-1 Marseille and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.

Marseille (3rd)

  • Only 3 losses since 17th September 2017.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 15 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten top 5 at home. 2-2-2 scored at home though v top 3.
  • 2-2-3-3 conceded at home v top 5.
  • No 0-0.
  • 22 of 35 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Montpellier (6th)

  • 5 draws and a win last 6 matches.
  • Not beaten top 6 but 6 draws in 7 matches v top 4.

Conclusions

  • It seems best case is a draw for Montpellier. Shall we play this match with that in mind? i.e. Lay Montpellier if Montpellier score first? Marseille matches v the top 5 are full of goals. They have scored and conceded last 4 matches. 1-1 and 2-2 are possible trading angles.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

14:15 - Arsenal v Southampton - 1.57 Arsenal
  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.

Arsenal (6th)

  • 2 consecutive 3-0 home wins.
  • 4 wins in 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home (12.5%).
  • Only lost to the top 2 at home.
  • 100% wins v 8th and lower.
  • Scored first in 12/16 at home.

Southampton (18th)

  • Only 1 win in 18 was a 2-3 v poor West Brom.
  • 2 consecutive 3-0 away defeats.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away (27% of matches).
  • Not beaten top 8 home or away.
  • Not beaten top 16 away.
  • A win today will drag Swansea and Huddersfield into the relegation scrap.

Conclusions

  • Relegation six pointers from hereon in for Southampton could engender change. Season long form though suggests a defeat. 100% wins at home for Arsenal v 8th and lower.
  • You may want to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Arsenal's low 12.5% score.
  • Arsenal are vastly improved at home and should win comfortably unless Southampton battle for much-needed points.

16:30 - Chelsea v West Ham - 1.3 Chelsea

  • This is a London Derby so please remember that.
  • 1-0 West Ham last head to head.

Chelsea (5th)

  • 5 losses in 7 matches.
  • 2 wins in their last 3 home matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home (44%).
  • 8 wins out of 8 v top 11 at home.

West Ham (14th)

  • 3 losses in their last 4 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away losses.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 away matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
  • West Ham have not beaten a top 15 side away.
  • Scored v 1st, 3rd, 4th and 7th away.

Conclusions

  • West Ham have a very poor record v the top 15 away and, although they may score, that poor form should seal their fate.
  • Chelsea are in dire form but have won 2 of their last 3 home matches and a 100% win record v 11th and lower at home. Put that recent poor form into context.
  • I do not expect a West Ham win today.