Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Some good calls yesterday @drtclub Twitter. More today I hope. 13:30 start. Sunday tends to be more sedatory as we are without the gamut of 15:00 kick-offs we see on a Saturday.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:00 - Fulham v Arsenal - 1.7 Arsenal

  • London derby so form may not be upheld.
  • Fulham are inconsistent. Just one win v Burnley came at home. 2/2 defeats in London derbies so far.
  • Fulham are yet to keep a clean sheet.
  • 5 consecutive Arsenal wins, scoring 2+ goals. I must be with the Arsenal today. They are highly likely to win and score 2+ goals unless the London derby element kicks in, but to remind you, Fulham are 2/2 losses in London Derby.

14:15 - Southampton v Chelsea - 1.66 Chelsea

  • New managers for both teams.
  • Only 1 win for Southampton came away v Palace. 0-0, 1-2, 2-2 at home for Southampton.
  • Chelsea were routine mid week in the Europa League with a changed side and a 1-0 win. 5 wins and 2 draws for Chelsea. Chelsea have kept 2 away clean sheets. 1.66 does look rather generous unlike Southampton's Sparky has something up his sleeve.

16:30 - Liverpool v Manchester City - 2.6 Liverpool

  • I am not going to attempt to unravel this one. Liverpool have tended to lead halftime and fulltime this season. Their 1-1 v Chelsea suggests they may not win today but equally a draw is not discounted.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

12:30 - Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen - 2.24 Leverkusen

  • 4-0 Leverkusen and 0-0 last 2 head to heads. Leverkusen came from behind mid week to win.
  • Only 1 win at home for Freiburg. 2 wins came in their last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 2 wins in 3 for Leverkusen came within last 3 matches too.
  • These 2 are hinting at a change in fortune. Identical form last 3 matches. In play stats for me.

14:30 - Hoffenheim v Frankfurt - 1.8 Hoffenheim

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads.
  • Identical form for both sides this season. 3 defeats, 2 wins and a draw. Both teams have scored in all Hoff's matches.
  • Both teams have scored in all bar 1 of Frankfurt's matches.
  • 2-1/1-2 appeals to me if this both teams to score pattern can continue. The Hoff always tend to deliver!
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market if 0-0 still after the 30th minute.

17:00 - Leipzig v Nurnberg - 1.43 Leipzig

  • Newly promoted Nurnberg.
  • Leipzig have only lost to Dortmund. They have scored and conceded in all bar 1 match. A draw and 2 wins at home. That's 3 wins in 4 matches and a sign they may be clicking.
  • Loss, Draw, Loss away for Nurnberg. 2 consecutive home wins though and it is at home where you feel their German Bundesliga survival will be found.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Genoa v Parma - 1.83 Genoa

  • Only 1 draw in all matches these 2 have played this season came from Parma, 2-2 first match.
  • No draw Genoa. 3 wins at home  1-0-0 conceded. They have scored in every match.
  • 2-5-0-2-1-3 goals total before halftime Genoa matches. 3 wins to nil in 4 for Parma. 1-0, 0-1, 3-0 away.
  • Parma are that unknown quantity playing a new Seria A side for the first time. Will they shock, as they did in beating Inter Milan? Or will they lose to nil as they have done twice away from home?
  • I find the Genoa goals before halftime compelling, but then Parma we know failed to score in 2 away so reliance will be on Genoa only pulling for us for a goal before halftime. I would lay the 0-0 halftime score market 30th minute if still 0-0.

14:00 - AC Milan v Chievo - 1.3 AC Milan

  • 1-4 and 3-2 Milan last 2 matches. Competitive matches.
  • No win yet for Chievo is likely to continue. They have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Both teams have scored in all Milan matches and they only lose v Napoli.
  • Both teams tend to score in head to heads with Milan winning. Expect this today and react accordingly to anything else. 6 consecutive 1-0 scorelines at halftime for AC Milan.

14:00 - Atalanta v Sampdoria - 1.67 Atalanta

  • 3-1 and 1-2 Sampdoria in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Only 1 win for Atalanta came v Frosinone.
  • Atalanta failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • 1-0, 0-5, 0-0 for Sampdoria away from home. 2 consecutive clean sheets could see Sampdoria dominate today. How on earth Atalanta are strong favourites is beyond me. Let the in-play stats confirm. But Atalanta are layable for me personally if scoring first.

14:00 - Lazio v Fiorentina - 1.87 Lazio

  • 1-1 and 3-4 Lazio last 2 head to heads.
  • No draw Lazio. 4 wins ended in the Rome derby last match. Good form. The Rome derby simply goes to the best team on the day and is not really form related.
  • Lazio only failed to score v Juventus.
  • 1-0 loss Napoli, 1-1, 2-1 loss Inter Milan for Fiorentina. For me, Lazio are not quite on the level Napoli and Inter are. At home, Fiorentina are 4 from 4.
  • Note all 0-0's at halftime in these 2 teams' matches has NOT seen a 0-0 at full-time.

17:00 - Napoli v Sassuolo - 1.34 Napoli

  • Both teams score when these 2 meet. In the last 5 matches, best case for Sassuolo is a score draw.
  • 3 consecutive home wins Napoli. 5 wins in 7 matches. losses away v Sampdoria and Juventus.
  • All over 2.5 goals bar one.
  • Sassuolo have been excellent. Losses came v Juventus and AC Milan. They have scored in all matches.
  • In losing to Juventus and AC Milan, I think Sassuolo will be very competitive but not quite manage it. That is how I will enter the match.

19:30 - Spal v Inter - 1.67 Inter

  • 2-0 and 1-1 Inter in the last 2 head to heads.
  • 4 losses in their last 5 matches for Spal. Spal failed to score in 3 of those losses.
  • 1-0, 2-0, 0-2 at home for Spal. Their wins came v strugglers.
  • 4 wins in 5 sees Inter in fine form. Loss, Win, Win away.
  • It would surprise were Inter not too get a result here today.
  • 3 0-0's for Inter Milan at halftime but none at fulltime so please note that.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Valladolid v Huesca - 1.96 Valladolid

  • Newly promoted so you know the drill. An element of the unknown.
  • Valladolid lost their opening 2 matches v Barcelona and Alaves (who beat Real Madrid yesterday!)
  • A win last home match. 2 consecutive wins.
  • Huesca began with a win but no win since. 2-2, 8-2, 3-0 away. The last 2 matches were v Barcelona and Atl Madrid.
  • Huesca have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Not sure about this one as Huesca will certainly find Valladolid easier opponents. Valladolid are hitting form and will, themselves, think that they have a chance. In-play stats here to see how the newly promoted side shapes up.

15:15 - Atletico Madrid v Betis - 1.7 Atl Madrid

  • 0-1 Madrid and 0-0 last 2 head to heads.
  • Only 1 loss both sides sees a good season start.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets Madrid and that famous defence seems to be clicking now.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 for Betis will see a very defensively driven match today. Back 0-0 pre match?
  • In matches like this it does tend to be 0-0 halftime and Atl Madrid do tend to wangle a goal at some point, usually after 60 minutes.
  • We shall see. I do expect a very tough defensively driven match.

17:30 - Sevilla v Celta Vigo - 1.52 Sevilla

  • The home side tends to come out on top historically.
  • 3 losses ended with 3 consecutive wins now for Sevilla, fighting on 2 fronts as they are in the Europa League.
  • 6-3-3 goals scored in their last 3 matches is quite superb  and backs up 4 goals scored in their opener.
  • Sevilla, therefore, could let loose.
  • Celta have been in good form, with only one loss, 3-2 away to Girona.3 consecutive score draws may give us a trading angle. If Celta score first, it is highly likely that they will not hold on to that lead.
  • This could be an over 3.5 goals match today. There is a solid argument for laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:30 - Espanyol v Villarreal - 2.42 Espanyol

  • An unappealing betting market.
  • 0-0 and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.
  • 3/3 at home for Espanyol, without conceding a goal. 2 losses naturally came away.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime for Espanyol so do not expect a fulltime 0-0 if 0-0 at halftime.
  • Espanyol failed to score only once v Real Madrid.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches sees Villareal's defence starting to click.
  • 2 consecutive away wins ....to nil. Villareal have not conceded away.
  • 2 sides not conceding goals at home (Esp) and away (Vill) surely brings 0-0 into play? Back 0-0 pre match to cash out as late as you dare?

19:45 - Valencia v Barcelona - 1.71 Barcelona

  • Real Madrid, Bayern Munich all doing a great impression of relegation threatened sides. 2 losses and a draw both of these big teams.
  • I mention it as Barcelona had the colley-wobbles recently Draw, Loss, Draw. But then there was that master class in London V Tottenham and a certain Messi who done tremendous (he's one to watch out for the future!)
  • 5 wins in 6 head to heads for Barcelona and the matches do have a competitive edge.
  • Only 1 loss but only 1 win for Valencia = drawitis. 1-1, 0-0, 1-1 at home. Valencia have scored 2 goals only once and that will leave them very vulnerable if the Barcelona of London mid week turn up today.
  • An unprecedented 3 matches for Barca without a win saw both teams score. This rot must end. But then I said this about Real Madrid (failed to score in 3 matches) and Bayern Munich (a draw and 2 consecutive defeats to nil). What is the cause of this sudden drop in performance amongst the elite? Is it the schedule (International Break and Champions League?)
  • This has engendered some managerial squad tinkering which is one factor behind poor performance. With the Champions League done for the time being, I expect the Barcelona first team today and an improved performance. They did show in their 1-1 that they are reliable if behind, and will fight for that goal late on.