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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 7, 2018

The FA Cup returns today. I am taken with Arsenal's super record in the FA Cup and will focus primarily on that match. 2 consecutive away 0-0's for Real Madrid as well as a loss last match suggests an improved performance from Real today. Celta do tend to score. I hope Celta score first!

FA CUP

12:00 - Newport County v Leeds - 1.9 Leeds

  • League Two v Championship.

Newport County

  • Recent form - only 1 loss in 8.
  • Recent home form - only 3 wins in 11 matches so may be vulnerable to a team from a better league?
  • Recent cup form - only 1 loss in 10 matches. 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Recent cup home form  - only 1 loss in 8 matches , 2 recent extra time matches.

Leeds

  • Recent form - only 1 loss in 8.
  • Recent away form - no draw in 10 matches. 3 wins in 4 away.
  • Recent cup form - recent FA Cup losses were 1-0 v Watford and Sutton.
  • Recent cup away form  - Win, Loss, Win, Loss away.

Conclusions

  • No strong angles for me. I suppose Leeds keep avoiding draws away. Lay the late draw?

14:00 - Shrewsbury v West Ham - 2.02 West Ham

  • How do we weigh up David Moyes' attitude to the FA Cup? His priority must surely be in distancing the Hamsters from the bottom 3 in the Premier league?
  • The market is very tentative about West Ham today . Shrewsbury are 2nd in League One.
  • West Ham's recent Fa Cup matches saw 2 defeats and a draw v the 2 big Manchester sides.
  • Shrewsbury lost 0-3 to Man Utd in 2016 in the Fa Cup. Apart from that, how can we gauge their performance v a new manager'ed West Ham?

15:00 - Tottenham v AFC Wimbledon - 1.14 Tottenham

Tottenham

  • Recent form -only 1 loss in 9 was v Manchester City.
  • Recent home form -6 wins and 2 1-1 draws in their last 8.
  • Recent cup form -6 wins and 2 defeats which came v London teams (as are Wimbledon...).
  • Recent cup home form  -3 consecutive wins.

AFC Wimbledon

  • Recent form -League One side ; only 3 wins in 9.
  • Recent away form -only 2 wins in 9 matches  ; no win in 4 matches.
  • Recent cup form -only 1 loss in 7 matches  ; last played a Premier League side in 2015 losing to Liverpool.
  • Recent cup away form  -Draw - Win-Draw - Win- Draw recently.

Conclusions

  • Team news key. Teams like Leicester yesterday made wholesale changes.
  • 1.14 odds suggests 3/4 goals minimum v the League One outfit. Do you agree? Tottenham's last 2 defeats in the FA Cup were v London clubs. VAlue seekers will be laying Spurs based on that.

16:00 - Nottm Forest v Arsenal - 1.6 Arsenal

Nottm Forest

  • Recent form - failed to score in their last 3 matches ; no win in 5 matches  ; only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Recent home form - 3 defeats in 4 matches.failed to score in those defeats.
  • Recent cup form - 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Recent cup home form  - 2 wins in 8 matches v West Ham and QPR - 2 London clubs!

Arsenal

  • Recent form  - unbeaten in 9 albeit 5 draws and 2 consecutive score draws.
  • Recent away form - 3 draws and a win away last 4.
  • Recent cup form - only 1 loss in 23 matches ; scored in 21 of their last 22 matches.
  • Recent cup away form  - unbeaten in 10 matches, 2 went to extra time. 4 consecutive wins.

Conclusions

  • Team news key for Arsenal as ever as Wenger tends to blood the youth but.....with a noticeable gap to their next match, what chance we'll see the big guns?
  • Arsenal have a great recent FA Cup record, particularly away from home and always tend to score so therein is a straightforward angle.
  • Norwich seem to prioritize elsewhere although they did beat 2 London sides.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Leganes v Sociedad - 2.6 Sociedad

  • 0-2 Sociedad and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Leganes (13th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Recent win at home v 6th was surrounded by 5 matches where they failed to score.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Sociedad (9th)

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 loss away v teams below them in the league.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A slight nod towards Sociedad today who have scored 2+ goals in 3 matches v teams below them in the league away from home.
  • Leganes have had trouble scoring but then pipe up with a 3-1 win at home v a top 6 side! What gives?
  • AS you well know, 2.6 favourite matches are tough to call.
  • I would take on any 0-0 at halftime in the second half.

15:15 - Barcelona v Levante - 1.07 Barcelona

  • 4-5-5-5-4-2 goals scored by Barcelona in recent head to heads is what is expected of a 1.07 shot.

Barcelona (1st)

  • Unbeaten.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 2+ goals scored in every match home and away v 4th and lower.
  • All clean sheets v 12th and lower.
  • Led at halftime at home in 6/8.

Levante (16th)

  • 3 0-0's in 4 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Draws away v 4th, 5th and 7th (4th being Real Madrid).

Conclusions

  • Take on any late 0-0. Levante's 0-0 sequence should end quickly and they play a team accomplished in ending 0-0's.
  • On form we should expect 2+ goals from Barcelona and a likely Barcelona halftime lead. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market or back Barcelona in the halftime market particularly if 0-0 after 20 minutes.
  • A 0-0 is a possible given Levante seem well drilled defensively but I would bank on 2+ Barca goals.

17:30 - Athletic Bilbao v Alaves - 1.7 Ath Bilbao

  • 0-0 and 1-0 Alaves last 2 head to heads.

Ath Bilbao (12th)

  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home 0-0' s.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 home defeats v top 2.
  • Yet to meet any side 11th and lower at home.

Alaves (17th)

  • No draw.
  • 3 wins in 4.
  • Only 1 away win was a 2-3 away v Giorna.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 11 defeats and a 2-3 win home and away v 14th and higher.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Alaves are winning but only 1 away win suggests advantage home side. Bilbao have only been beaten by the top 2.
  • We see this a lot this weekend. A big gap in form. Bilbao are yet to meet teams 11th and lower at home so we have nothing to gauge performance v 17th in the league.
  • On current available form, bilbao have been good v 10th and higher at home so assumption is Alaves should be within their compass.

17:30 - Villarreal v Deportivo - 1.61 Villareal

  • 2 consecutive head to head 0-0's.

Villareal (6th)

  • 2 consecutive 0-1 away wins.
  • 2 consecutive home defeats.
  • Unbeaten at halftime.
  • Only home defeats v top 5.
  • 3-2-4 goals scored in wins v 17th and lower.
  • 11 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Deportivo (18th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away losses.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score v top 7.
  • Opponents tend to score first away.

Conclusions

  • Surely 0-0 will end? 2 consecutive head to head 0-0's. If it is to end, Villareal are the likelier scorers as Depor have failed to score v top 7.
  • Villareal really should be eyeing a win here, scoring 2+ goals.if 0-0 at halftime, keep the faith. Villareal scored the vast majority of home goals 2nd half.

19:45 - Celta Vigo v Real Madrid - 1.53 Real Madrid

  • Celta Vigo were unbeaten in the most recent Copa Del Rey head to heads.

Celta Vigo (11th)

  • Only 3 wins in 9 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side 0-1 losses at home v 2nd and 6th.
  • 9 of 11 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Real Madrid (4th)

  • 3 losses this season only. Lost last match.
  • No win in 3 away. 2 consecutive 0-0's away.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches including those 2 recent aways.
  • Unbeaten at halftime.
  • Lost away v 10th and 0-0 v 12th and ....(drum roll), play 11th today.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's away for Real Madrid. Unprecedented stuff! Do not expect a 3rd! Take on any late 0-0 with gusto!
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in fact. The stats point to 2 teams who like to score first half (typically!).
  • Real Madrid must get some wins under their belts. Imagine if they miss out on a Champions League place! Celta are yet to beat the top 6 but 2 0-1 defeats suggests they park the bus.
  • I would take a chance and lay Celta in the halftime market if they score first in the first half. Why? Real are yet to lose at halftime.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMIERA LIGA

16:00 - Moreirense v Benfica - 1.33 Benfica

  • Benfica tend to win head to heads bar a win for Moreirense in the cup.

Moreirense (14th)

  • 2 consecutive 2-1 wins, part of only 3 wins all season!
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 1-1, 1-1, 2-1 at home now.
  • 1-1 v 2nd this season at home, 0-1 v 4th.
  • All 5 home goals scored first half.

Benfica (3rd)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 1 0-0 in 10 of the last 11 matches at halftime.
  • All wins v 10th and lower.
  • Conceded all away goals 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Moreirense might be competitive here and score. Benfica really though should outscore them today given Benfica's 100% win record home and away v 10th and lower.
  • A hope Moreirense scores first here for a trading angle.

18:00 - Sporting Lisbon v Maritimo - 1.17 Sporting Lisbon

  • Sporting have tended to win head to heads. 2-2 though last head to head match.

Sporting Lisbon (2nd)

  • Unbeaten.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • 12 wins and a draw home and away v 5th and lower.
  • All 4 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 7/8 at home.

Maritimo (6th)

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Losses away v 1st, 7th, 11th and 18th.
  • 5 goals conceded away came last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • Were this at Maritimo, I would give them a chance. A recent 3-1 loss to Porto though suggests Sporting Lisbon should outscore them today.
  • Near 100% record for Sporting v 5th and lower.
  • Sporting tend to score first so unlikely we will see a trade here. 3-0, 3-1 appeals to me today as possible scorelines.

20:15 - Porto v Guimaraes - 1.14 Porto

  • 5 consecutive wins to nil for Porto.

Porto (1st)

  • Unbeaten.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 7 wins and a draw at home.
  • Only 1 draw at home came v 3rd.
  • 3+ goals scored at home in all bar 1 match v 6th and lower.
  • Tend to score first at home and lead at halftime at home.

Guimaraes (7th)

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • 3 wins in 4 aways.
  • 3 out of 3 defeats v top 4. 2 of those losses came at home which suggests struggles away.

Conclusions

  • If Guimaraes are losing to top 4 teams at home then logically they will struggle away. Porto could score 3 goals today and that should seal the deal.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market or back Porto in the halftime market as they tend to lead at halftime at home.
  • Let's hope Guimaraes scores first for a trading angle.