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I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. 13:30 start for a live chat webinar today at Zoom and simultaneously at DRT Facebook.

Clive Keeling is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Topic: DRT live chat webinar for Sunday 7th February 2021

Time: Feb 7, 2021 01:30 PM London

Join Zoom Meeting:

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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:00 - Tottenham v West Brom - 1.36 Tottenham

Tottenham - 9th

  • 3 consecutive defeats, 2 1-0.
  • Loss, Win, Draw, Loss, Loss at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 0-1 win last head to head. Unbeaten at home v 10th and lower.
  • 11/15 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • 10/13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

West Brom - 19th

  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away.
  • Conceded last 12 and last 11 away.
  • Under Big Sam, 2-3 win v Wolves, 2-1 loss v West Ham, 0-5 loss v Man City, 2-2 v Fulham, 2-1 loss v Sheffield United.

Conclusions

  • The market won't desert a poor Tottenham given West Brom under Big Sam are very generous, conceding 2,2,5,2,2 goals in recent matches.
  • Watching brief with Tottenham for me. The Special One's special tactics are clearly not working...or are they just missing Harry Kane?
  • Match outcome: Spurs have won 9/12 home matches against bottom-six teams while WBA have lost 7/11 away matches. WBA have lost the first half in 8/11 away matches.

14:00 - Wolves v Leicester - 2.25 Leicester

Wolves - 14th

  • Only 1 win in 9 came last match v 9 man Arsenal.
  • 3 wins since 29th November were all 2-1 and 2 v Arsenal and one v Chelsea.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Not played 2nd-5th at home but lost to them all away - 1-0 last head to head.
  • All defeats v the top 6.

Leicester - 3rd

  • Only 2 losses since 6th December 2020.
  • No defeat in 6 away.
  • Scored last 9 and last 6 away.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • Unbeaten away v 6th and lower.
  • 16 of 23 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Derby of sorts. Good win for Wolves v Arsenal but extenuating circumstances i.e. 2 red cards for the Arsenal.
  • I must side with Leicester here not to lose. Unbeaten in 6 away, and a questionable spluttering up front for a Wolves side failing to score that 2nd goal all too often.
  • 1st goal: Wolves have conceded first in 8/10 home matches against top-six teams while Leicester have scored first in 7/11 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 8/13 Leicester away matches.

16:30 - Liverpool v Man City - 2.30 Man City

  • Humdinger but for me too high profile to trade unless the in-play stats are emphatic. There is one very strong pattern Liverpool will want to see end. They have failed to score, at home, in their last 3 matches. A record breaker. Someone phone Norris McWhirter.
  • Contrast this with Man City who are undefeated in 5 away, and 13 in total and have scored in their last 10 and last 4 away. City have scored 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
  • Match outcome: Liverpool have won 13/14 home matches against top-six teams and they have had W/W double results in 7/9 such matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 8/11 Man City away matches against top-six teams.

19:15 - Sheffield Utd v Chelsea - 1.53 Chelsea

  • Sheffield United are best judged on their last 5 matches, 3 wins and 2 defeats.
  • Wins v Newcastle and West Brom at home, win v Man Utd away. Losses came v Tottenham and Man City which does not augur well.
  • New manager for Chelsea has managed 2 clean sheets to date in a 0-0 and 2-0 win v Burnley. I expect a repeat of that latter result.
  • Watching brief as ever with the new manager syndrome.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 13/15 Chelsea away matches against bottom-six teams and +3.5 goals in 7/12 Chelsea such matches. Sheffield Utd have drawn the first half in 5/8 home matches against top-six teams.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

12:00 - Hamilton v Rangers - 1.11 Rangers

  • Bottom v top.
  • 100% defeats for Hamilton home and away v the top 3. 0-2 and 8-0 defeat v Rangers already this season.
  • Rangers are unbeaten, scraped a 1-0 win latest, that goal coming 2nd half so do rely on them if 0-0 at halftime. Morellos was suspended last match.
  • Angles? Obvious isn't it?
  • 1st goal: Hamilton Ac have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against top half non-Big One teams while Rangers have won 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams. Rangers have had W/W double results in 8/10 away matches.

SPANISH LA LIGA

13:00 - Real Sociedad v Cadiz - 1.33 Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad - 6th

  • Only 1 win since 29th November 2020.
  • 3 score draws in 4 matches.
  • 4 score draws and a loss in 5 home matches.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 10th and lower.
  • 0-1, 1-1, 1-1 at home v 14th, 15th, 17th.
  • 7/9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Cadiz - 13th

  • Only 2 wins in 13 came at home.
  • No win in 6 away.
  • Conceded last 6 away.
  • 4 losses and a win away v the top 10.
  • Not scored 2 goals v top 14 away.

Conclusions

  • Sociedad have scored 1 goal max v teams around Cadiz at home but may get away with it if Cadiz still struggle to score that 2nd goal v top 14.
  • 1st goal: Real Sociedad have scored first in 14/18 home matches against middle-third teams while Cadiz have conceded first in 5/10 away matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Cadiz away matches.

15:15 - Athletic Bilbao v Valencia - 2.05 Athletic Bilbao

Athletic Bilbao - 11th

  • 3 wins in 4 matches at home.
  • No draw in 10 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 2 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 2-2 last head to head.
  • Sporadic home form, can beat one team, lose to the team below them in the league. So no real pattern.
  • 11 goals scored at home last 30 mins of home matches.

Valencia - 14th

  • Only 5 wins, did win last match at home 1-0.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal in their last 7 matches.
  • Scored in their last 6 and last 4 away.
  • 7/11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I don't like matches where one team shows no patterns. And that team is Bilbao, winning and losing at home without any strong pattern.
  • So watching brief for me.
  • Potential to lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • 1st goal: Ath. Bilbao have scored first in 10/17 home matches while Valencia have lost 13/20 away matches. Ath. Bilbao have won 7/8 home matches against middle-third teams.

17:30 - Osasuna v Eibar - 2.62 Osasuna

  • Only 2 losses in 8 for Osasuna, saw 5 draws. Won last home match v Granada, the only win since 31st October 2020.
  • Osasuna have not played 12th-16th at home.0-0 last time these 2 played.
  • 10 goals in total in the last 15 minutes of home matches for Osasuna.
  • Only 4 wins for Eibar, same as Osasuna.
  • Eibar have scored in their last 10 away and scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • Angles? The market cannot split these strugglers who have both only managed 4 wins. I do note 2 things. Eibar tend to score away. And Osasuna matches at home see a lot of goals 75th minute+.
  • 1st half outcome: Osasuna have drawn the first half in 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 8/13 Eibar away matches. Eibar have drawn the first half in 6/11 away matches.

20:00 - Real Betis v Barcelona - 1.55 Barcelona

Real Betis - 7th

  • Unbeaten in 5 matches with 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 home matches.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.
  • Scored last 7 and last 5 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side.
  • 5-2 loss v Barcelona earlier.

Barcelona - 2nd

  • One of a long list of sides on their own mini-revival. Brilliant mid week v Granada who I layed at 1.05 and 1.04 2-0 up with 4 mins to go. Final score 2-2? Messi the provider, Griezemann with a quite wonderful goal.
  • 5 consecutive away wins.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches away.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 and last 3 away.
  • Scored last 12 and last 6 away.
  • Not played 3rd to 7th away.

Conclusions

  • Barcelona have been a little careless in recent matches, particularly in the cup where they have been behind 1-0 and 2-0 and came out with a win and  a draw. I need to see Griezemann and Messi playing if I am to maintain the confidence in Barca I had mid week.
  • Betis are in solid recently form but quite simply are yet to beat the top 9.
  • 1st goal: Real Betis have conceded first in 8/12 home matches against top-six teams while Barcelona have won the first half in 10/14 away matches. Barcelona have won 9/13 away matches.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Hoffenheim v Frankfurt - 2.20 Frankfurt

Hoffenheim - 12th

  • 0-0, 0-3 win, 3-0 win, 4-1 loss to Bayern latest. Hoff had been improving till Bayern exacted revenge.
  • 0-0 and 3-0 at home latest.
  • I think that is our focus for the Hoff.
  • All defeats bar a win v Bayern v the top 6 and at home, 1 win and all defeats v top 9.

Frankfurt - 4th

  • 6 wins and a loss last 7.
  • Only 2 losses.
  • Scored 2+ goals last 8 matches.
  • Unbeaten outside the top 3.

Conclusions

  • A fascinating match. Ordinarily a green light to Frank but Hoff had 3 clean sheets prior to the loss v Bayern (both of these sides lost to Bayern).
  • Will the defensive Hoff turn up?
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 15/19 Hoffenheim home matches and in 13/17 E. Frankfurt away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 6/10 E. Frankfurt away matches.

17:00 - Arminia Bielefeld v Werder Bremen - 2.45 Werder Bremen

  • As unreadable as a ghost-written Katie Price novel.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 4/6 A Bielefeld home matches against middle-third teams and in 7/10 W. Bremen away matches. W. Bremen have scored first in 9/11 away matches against bottom-six teams.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Benevento v Sampdoria - 2.45 Sampdoria

  • Newly promoted Benevento at home leaves me cold, as does the 2.45 the favourite quote.
  • 12th v 10th.
  • Benevento are yet to beat the top 9 home or away.
  •  2-3 win v Sampdoria earlier this season.
  • Sampdoria lost away to the top 5 but have beaten 7th, 9th and 11th (both teams scoring).
  • 12/15 goals conceded away by Samp came 2nd half.
  • Angles? Newly promoted sides leave me wanting to read the match via the in-play stats.
  • 1st goal: Benevento have conceded first in 6/10 home matches while Sampdoria have won 5/8 away matches against middle-third teams. Benevento have lost 5/10 home matches.

14:00 - Udinese v Verona - 2.37 Udinese

  • Not too keen on the market.
  • Only 1 win in 10 for Udinese came last match v Spezia.
  • They scored 2 goals only once in those matches.
  • Udinese haven't scored that 2nd goal last 7 at home.
  • Only 1 win for Udinese at home v 16th and higher. They play 9th today.
  • 2 consecutive away losses for Verona.
  • Verona have scored 2 goals only once v 13th and lower (Udinese 13th).
  • Angles? Not an appealing match given the lack of a 2nd goal consistently enough for both sides!
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Udinese home matches against middle-third teams and in 7/9 Verona away matches against middle-third teams. Udinese have drawn the first half in 13/19 home matches.

15:00 - AC Milan v Crotone - 1.22 AC Milan

AC Milan - 1st

  • Only 2 defeats did come within the last 5 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Loss at home last 3.
  • Failed to score only last home match.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.
  • 2+ goals scored home v 8th and lower.

Crotone - 20th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 5 losses and a win last 6 matches.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • 8 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 0-2 loss v Milan last time.

Conclusions

  • 2+ goals expected of AC Milan today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Match outcome: AC Milan have won 10/16 home matches while Crotone have had L/L double results in 7/10 away matches. Crotone have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 away matches.

17:00 - Parma v Bologna - 1.20 Bologna

Parma - 19th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 7 losses and a draw last 8 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home defeats.
  • Failed to score in 7/9 matches, a surprise with a striker as good as Gervinho.
  • Failed to score last 7 at home.
  • 4-1 loss to Bologna earlier this season.

Bologna - 15th

  • 3 losses and a win last 4.
  • 3 draws and 2 losses last 5 away.
  • Failed to score last 3 away.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league. Not played bottom 3 away but beat them at home.
  • 6/7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Parma are really struggling but whenever I watch them, they threaten but the stats tell us all - failed to score in 7/9 matches. Bologna beat them easily last head to head.
  • Bologna have failed to score last 3 away but are unbeaten v teams below them in the league.
  • Match outcome: Parma have lost 11/18 home matches and they have conceded first in 6/10 home matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 6/8 Bologna away matches against bottom-six teams.

19:45 - Lazio v Cagliari - 1.36 Lazio

Lazio - 6th

  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 and last 4 at home.
  • 100% wins v 15th and lower but not played 16th and lower at home but beat them all away.
  • 69% of goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Cagliari - 18th

  • 6 losses and a draw last 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away losses.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 100% defeats v the top 7. 0-2 loss to Lazio earlier.

Conclusions

  • Market spot on UNLESS Cagliari start playing like a team desperately needing points! 100% defeats v top 7 suggests Lazio's winning run can continue.
  • Asian handicap: Lazio have won by two or more goals in 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Cagliari have conceded first in 8/11 away matches. Cagliari have lost 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 - Ajax v Utrecht - 1.33 Ajax

Ajax - 1st

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 2 draws and 5 wins last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored last 10 at home.
  • Led at halftime in 7/10 at home.
  • 0-3 win last head to head.

Utrecht - 8th

  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 3/3 defeats v the top 3.
  • 8/9 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 9/12 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Utrecht tend to concede 1st half and Ajax lead at halftime 70% of home matches.
  • Utrecht may offer some resistance but notably lost the head to head at their place and have 3/3 losses v the top 3.
  • HT/FT: Ajax have had W/W double results in 14/19 home matches and they have won by two or more goals in 12/20 home matches. Utrecht have lost 7/8 away matches against Big Two teams.

13:30 - Groningen v Feyenoord - 2.00 Feyenoord

Groningen - 6th

  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, only once at fulltime.
  • 2-0 loss to  Feyenoord earlier.
  • Only 1 home win v the top 10 at home was a 1-0.
  • 9/13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Feyenoord - 4th

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • 3 losses and a win last 4 away matches.
  • 3/3 losses away v the top 9, failing to score.
  • 8/11 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Feyenoord are wobbling at the moment. Can they take advantage of Groningen's only 2 wins in 7 matches? Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Both sides have struggled v the top 9 making it hard for me to trust Feyenoord.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 14/19 Groningen home matches and in 8/10 Feyenoord away matches against top-six teams. Feyenoord have conceded first in 7/10 away matches.

13:30 - Willem-II v Den Haag - 1.67 Willem II

  • Only 3 wins for Willem II but did win their last home match.
  • This is 3 wins v 2 wins. Den Haag must be dodgepots if a team with 3 wins is 1.67 favourite!
  • Willem II have scored in their last 7 at home and last 10 overall.
  • 16th v 17th here. Willem II have 2 wins v 14th and 18th at home. ADO Den Haag have beaten 14th, 15th and drawn with 18th away.
  • Both sides have conceded 70% + of goals 2nd half.
  • Angles? 1.67 looks a tad short to me given Den Haag have beaten 14th and 15th and away and play 16th today. Similarly Willem II do their winning v 14th and 18th and play 17th.
  • In-play stats for me!
  • 1st goal: Willem II have scored first in 7/11 home matches while Den Haag have lost 12/17 away matches. Willem II have won the first half in 5/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.

15:45 - Venlo v Sparta Rotterdam - 2.20 Sparta Rotterdam

Venlo - 14th

  • 4 wins, a draw and a loss last 6 matches for Venlo.
  • Win, Draw, Win at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in 4/5 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss v 8th and lower.
  • Scored and conceded in all homes v 7th and lower.
  • 19/28 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Sparta - 12th

  • 2 losses and 2 draws last 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten away v 15th and lower.
  • 7/10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • An equal argument for both sides. No strong angles for me. Note the strong 2nd half goals patterns if 0-0 or a draw at halftime.
  • 1st goal: VVV-Venlo have scored first in 7/8 home matches against middle-third teams while Sparta R'dam have lost 11/18 away matches. Sparta R'dam have conceded first in 11/16 away matches.

DANISH SUPERLIGA

  • With the Midtjylland loss mid week, I think these return-from-1-month-break matches need a watching brief so I will only report the football form lab game notes.

13:00 - Nordsjaelland v Odense BK - 2.20 Nord

  • Match outcome: Nordsjaelland have won 9/12 home matches against bottom-six teams while Odense have lost 10/16 away matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/11 Odense away matches against middle-third teams.

13:00 - SonderjyskE v Vejle - 2.15 Sonder

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 5/9 SonderjyskE home matches against bottom-six teams and in 4/7 Vejle Kolding away matches. Vejle Kolding have conceded first in 4/7 away matches.

15:00 - Horsens v Copenhagen - 1.53 Copenhagen

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/10 Horsens home matches against top-half teams and in 13/20 Kobenhavn away matches against bottom-six teams. Kobenhavn have scored first in 9/13 away matches.

17:00 - AGF Aarhus v Lyngby - 1.40 AGF

  • Match outcome: AGF Aarhus have won 8/12 home matches against bottom-six teams while Lyngby BK have lost 7/9 away matches against top-half teams. Lyngby BK have conceded first in 7/9 away matches against top-half teams.

19:00 - Brondby v AaB Aalborg - 2.08  Brondby

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 6/8 Brondby home matches against middle-third teams and in 7/11 Aalborg BK away matches. Brondby have won 12/19 home matches.