Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I was delighted by some of the member calls at the live chat webinar, and before. Take a bow Gary Young with a 1.06 lay of Sundsvall 3-0 up. 4-4 it ended! Chris Gamble took the neutral bet route in Panathanaikos match and I did not! He won on a lay of the draw at 1.11! And there were a couple of great desmond shouts too. Well thought out too. I will post one at the DRT Facebook page this coming week as a great learning tool.
There were some great calls throughout if you took action on them - Benevento - Rapid Vienna (coming from behind and ending the desmond 2-2) - Liverpool / Leicester 2-1/1-2 - Burnley 1-0 (rather obvious after the red card) - and the piece de resistance (that's German for 'get in there'), a lay of Bayern Munich at 1.13 at the off. The mighty Hoffenheim return to their compelling best with a 1-2 win. We could even profit at 0-1 laying them as Bayern drew 1-1 fleetingly. Never be afraid to take on the market makers. I thought in research that 1.13 was far too short. One loss for me at Sunderland but I talked through the mine field associated with that match. The key element? Sunderland at 2.5 odds suggested it would be a toughie. I acknowledged the odds but went ahead in the trade and lost. Sunderland have been ultra reliable this season and given us plenty of profitable trades. I should, though, have stuck to my instincts and left a 2.5 shot alone. Look at all of the matches yesterday with a favourite at 2.4+ odds and tell me whether you could have predicted the results. These matches tend to be unreadable.
On to today, and the live chat webinar begins at 13:30 to cover the Dutch. This is likely to be the last live chat webinar for a while as the International Break embeds.
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6159306211132832267 is the link. Please register to attend and let's make some green screen.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

14:00 - Southampton v Chelsea - 1.92 Chelsea

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/10 Southampton home matches against top-half teams and in 9/12 Chelsea away matches against middle-third teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 6/10 Southampton home matches against top-half teams.
  • Only 2 wins for Saints came away v Brighton and Sheffield United.
  • 1-2, 1-1, 1-3 at home sees Saints scoring and conceding and not winning.
  • Saints failed to score in only their first match of the season.
  • Chelsea have only lost to Man Utd and Liverpool. They have scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Angles in? I like the look of Chelsea here. I note the Southampton scoring and conceding habit, without winning, and will look to that continuing today. Chelsea have been more emphatic away from home. 3 and 5 goals scored.

14:00 - Arsenal v Bournemouth - 1.47 Arsenal

  • Match outcome: Arsenal have won 12/15 home matches while Bournemouth have lost 8/9 away matches against top-six teams. Arsenal have won by two or more goals in 6/9 home matches against top-half teams.
  • It's all about Aubameyang for Arsenal. Winner v Newcastle, winner v Burnley, equaliser v Tottenham, 2 goals v Watford, winner v Aston Villa and equaliser v Man Utd. If he plays, Arsenal have an outstanding chance of winning or drawing.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime for Arsenal came in their first match of the season.
  • 2-1, 2-2 and 3-2 for Arsenal at home. All Bournemouth matches this season have seen both teams score.
  • Bournemouth 3-1 losses v Man City and Leicester City suggests similar v another top 6 side.
  • Like Arsenal, Bournemouth have had only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Angles? I think that Bournemouth are showing struggles v the best, conceding 3 goals despite scoring. I would expect same today. Make sure Aubameyang is playing for Arsenal.

14:00 - Man City v Wolves - 1.13 Man City

  • HT/FT: Man City have had W/W double results in 14/20 home matches while Wolves have lost the first half in 3/5 away matches against top-six teams. Wolves have conceded first in 10/14 away matches.
  • Man City's only aberration came v Norwich, post International Break and pre-Champions League.
  • Wolves sole win of the season came v Watford.
  • This is not the Wolves of last season. Affected by the Europa League this season?
  • Angles? 2+ goals scored by Man City in every match. The odds look far too short for me. I would be happy to lay Man City if they scored first. Low liability. Man City rarely concede first.

16:30 - Newcastle v Man Utd - 1.92 Man Utd

  • 1st goal: Newcastle have conceded first in 7/9 home matches against middle-third teams while Man Utd have scored first in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams. Newcastle have lost 6/9 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • It won't be long before Ole will be heading back to Molde from Man Utd. It's poor stuff. Man Utd have scored 1-1-1-1-0-1 goals recently which means any win (1) will be 1-0.
  • If they cannot add to this 2nd goal, Newcastle are a side who could strangle the life out of them.
  • 1-1, 1-1, 2-0 away for Man Utd.
  • Only 1 win for Newcastle was a 0-1 v Tottenham. The 'strangling' I alluded to earlier.
  • Newcastle are yet to score that 2nd goal.
  • Angles? An argument can be made to lay the first team to score (but cover the 1-0 or 0-1 as insurance). Man Utd are untrustworthy at present.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11am - Mallorca v Espanyol - 2.46 Mallorca

  • 1st goal: Bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 51% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15 while Espanyol have scored first in 6/9 away matches against promoted teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/8 Espanyol away matches against promoted teams.
  • 2 of the bottom 3 early season and 2.46 the favourite puts me off here. Newly promoted Mallorca have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Their sole win came at home first match of the season.
  • Espanyol failed to score in their opening 3 matches. 0-0, 1-2 and 1-1 away for Espanyol might suggest a cautious nod in their favour this morning? Remember though that 2.46 the favourite suggests it's too tough to call.

13:00 - Celta Vigo v Athletic Bilbao - 2.82 Celta Vigo

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/11 Celta Vigo home matches against top half non-Big Two teams and they have drawn the first half in 6/8 such matches. Ath. Bilbao have drawn 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Only 1 win for Celta Vigo came at home v Valencia. A touch of 'Man Utd-ness'. Celta Vigo are having trouble scoring that 2nd goal.
  • 1-1-0-1 scored at home.
  • Ath Bilbao have had an air of reliability about them this season. Unbeaten until the last match 0-1 loss to Valencia, the side Celta beat 1-0.
  • 1-1, 0-0, 1-1 away for Atl Bilbao.
  • Angles? Can we rely on Atl Bilbao to score away? If so, lay Celta if Celta score first (where's that 2nd goal coming from?) As ever, 2.82 suggests the market cannot even call this one.

15:00 - Valladolid v Atletico Madrid - 1.75 Atl Madrid

  • 1st goal: Valladolid have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against top-six teams while Atl. Madrid have scored first in 10/18 away matches. Valladolid have lost 5/8 home matches against top-six teams.
  • Valladolid's 2 defeats this season came away from home. 2 home 1-1 draws.
  • A 1-1 away v Real Madrid is a shot across the bow for Atl Madrid today. It may not be so easy.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets for Atl Madrid saw 2 home 0-0's. 0-1, 2-0 loss, 0-2 away for Madrid. An errant 2-0 loss v Sociedad was a bit of a coupon buster.
  • Angles: A couple of 1-1 draws for Valladolid v the current 1-2 early season may dilute confidence in Atl Madrid. Tentative argument for laying Atl Madrid if they lead and especially if they lead 0-1 for some time.

17:30 - Sociedad v Getafe - 1.93 Sociedad

  • 1st goal: Real Sociedad have scored first in 14/19 home matches against bottom-half teams while Getafe have conceded first in 6/9 away matches against top-six teams. Getafe have drawn 13/20 away matches.
  • 2 losses for Sociedad came away from home. 2/2 home wins. 5 goals scored. None conceded.
  • 2-3-3-2 goals scored for Sociedad recently.
  • Only 1 win for Getafe came at home. Only 2 losses tells you, 4 score draws.
  • Angles? If Getafe are score drawing, logic suggests laying them if they score first. Sociedad are scoring 2+ goals regularly and could punish a Getafe finding wins troublesome.

20:00 - Barcelona v Sevilla - 1.56 Barcelona

  • HT/FT: Barcelona have had W/W double results in 8/10 home matches against top-six teams while Sevilla have had L/L double results in 8/10 away matches against Big Two teams. Barcelona have won 9/10 home matches against top-six teams.
  • Interestingly, the same odds as Barcelona v Inter Milan in the Champions league mid week. Inter Milan scored first. Barcelona scored 2 goals via Suarez to win.
  • 2 Barcelona losses this season came away from home.
  • 5-2, 5-2, 2-1 at home for Barca. Note that they are conceding but winning at home. Only 1 clean sheet for Barcelona came last match.
  • Sevilla built their first 3 wins, away, on a clean sheet. Losses have come v Atl Madrid and 3-2 away v Eibar. 3-2 goals conceded last 2 by Sevilla could be punished.
  • Angles? Barcelona to concede but win seems to be the pattern at home this season. With Sevilla conceding 2+ goals last 2 matches, they might be punished.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Fiorentina v Udinese - 1.58 Fiorentina

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/11 Fiorentina home matches against middle-third teams and in 8/11 Udinese away matches against middle-third teams. Fiorentina have drawn the first half in 7/11 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • 2 losses, 2 draws, 2 wins for Fiorentina this season. 2-2-3 goals scored by Fiorentina last 3 matches. Unbeaten in 4 matches.
  • Fiorentina have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Udinese are yet to score that 2nd goal and the market thinks them vulnerable today, now Fiorentina are scoring 2 goals.
  • 1-0 and 0-0 away. Udinese have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Angles? The market is clearly impressed with Fiorentina's recent form and goal scoring, compared with Udinese's failure to score in 3 of their last 4 matches. I'm with the market.

14:00 - Roma v Cagliari - 1.47 Roma

  • Match outcome: Roma have won 10/15 home matches while Cagliari have lost 16/18 away matches against top-six teams. Cagliari have lost by two or more goals in 6/9 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Only 1 loss for Roma came v Atalanta. 3 wins in 4 matches. Roma's only clean sheet came last match.
  • 3-3, 4-2, 0-2 at home for Roma. Note they are conceding 2+ goals but lost only one of the three matches.
  • Cagliari started the season with 2 home losses, but since then, 3 wins and a 1-1 draw. 1-3 Parma and 0-1 Napoli wins for Cagliari this season away.
  • Angles. 3-0 and 2-2 for Roma v Cagliari last season. Roma are conceding at home which is a worry. Even if Cagliari score 2 goals today, they look layable.

14:00 - Atalanta v Lecce - 1.33 Atalanta

  • Match outcome: Atalanta have won 10/12 home matches against promoted teams while bottom-six promoted teams have lost 61% of away matches against top-six teams since 2014-15. Atalanta have won by two or more goals in 8/12 home matches against promoted teams.
  • Newly promoted Lecce are not fancied today away at established Seria A side Atalanta.
  • 2-3 loss and 2-2 draw for Atalanta at home so far this season. That 2-3 was the only loss suffered by Atalanta.
  • Atalanta have scored 2+ goals in all matches so far.
  • 4 losses for Lecce but 2 away wins v Torino 1-2 and Spal 1-3 is intriguing.
  • Angles? Note in those wins, Lecce did not concede 2 goals. But Atalanta are scoring 2+ goals. The market clearly expects the home win  despite those 2 Lecce away wins.

14:00 - Bologna v Lazio - 2.16 Lazio

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Bologna home matches and in 15/20 Lazio away matches against middle-third teams. Lazio have scored first in 8/11 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • No win in 3 matches for Bologna. Only 2 home matches. 1-0 home win v SPAL and 1-2 loss v Roma.
  • Bologna have failed to score in their last 2 matches, away.
  • 2 of Lazio's 3 wins came at home. 2 consecutive away defeats v SPAL and Inter Milan.
  • Angles? Not appealing for me.

17:00 - Torino v Napoli - 1.94 Napoli

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 10/11 Torino FC home matches against top-six teams while Napoli have drawn the first half in 10/12 away matches against top-half teams. There have been +1.5 goals in 5/8 Napoli away matches against top-half teams.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches for Torino. All 3 home matches were 2-1 scorelines. 2 wins v Sassuolo and AC Milan and a loss v Lecce.
  • Both teams scored in 5/6 matches for Torino.
  • 4 wins for Napoli, a 4-3 loss v Juventus and 0-1 shock home loss v Cagliari.
  • 4-3-4 goals scored away by Napoli.
  • Angles? note both teams tend to score in Torino matches. I, though, am really taken by the 4-3-4 goals scored by Napoli away. Enough to side with Napoli here even if they concede.

19:45 - Inter v Juventus - 2.74 Inter

  • Match outcome: Juventus have won 6/9 away matches against top-six teams and they have scored first in 12/20 away matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 13/19 Inter Milan home matches against top-six teams.
  • Inter Milan, under Antonio Conte, are renewed. Sarri is the new manager of Juventus.
  • 100% wins for Inter Milan. Their last 2 home wins were 1-0 wins. 4 clean sheets in 6 matches for Inter Milan.
  • 5/6 wins for Juventus. They drew 0-0 with Fiorentina pre-Champions League.
  • 0-1, 0-0, 1-2 for Juventus away from home.
  • Angles? This is 1st and 2nd in Italian Seria A and, as the market suggests, is far too difficult to call. Factor in the 2 new managers and it becomes impossible to get a trading angle. Enjoy the spectacle. By all means check out the in-play stats, but do exercise caution in these top 2 clashes.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

12:30 - Mgladbach v Augsburg - 1.55 Mgladbach

  • Match outcome: B. M'gladbach have won 8/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Augsburg have lost 10/15 away matches. B. M'gladbach have won by two or more goals in 8/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Only 1 loss for Mgladbach this season came v Leipzig.3 of 4 wins came away from home.
  • 0-0 , 1-3, 2-1 at home for Mgladbach. Yet to reach the reliability of last season at home.
  • 5 consecutive matches with at least a goal before halftime.
  • Augsburg have only 1 win, at home. They scored and conceded in their first 4 matches but lost the last 0-3.
  • No clean sheet yet for Augsburg.
  • 2-0 and 1-1 for Mgladbach v Augsburg last season. 6 wins and a draw in 7 v the bottom 7 at home last season for Mgladbach. Augsburg were bottom 7.
  • Angles? Mgladbach were solid at home v 7th and lower last season which, if continuing here, suggests they can cope with Augsburg. No clean sheet for Augsburg yet so note that. And you may want to look at a goal before halftime but the sample of matches is small.

14:30 - Wolfsburg v Union Berlin - 1.7 Wolfsburg

  • 1st goal: Wolfsburg have scored first in 5/10 home matches against promoted teams while bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 68% of away matches against top-half teams since 2014-15. Bottom-six promoted teams have lost 56% of away matches against top-half teams since 2014-15.
  • The Wolf are unbeaten this season. 3 1-1's though in their last 4 matches.
  • 2-1, 1-1, 1-1 at home.
  • They beat newly promoted Koln 2-1, drew 1-1 with newly promoted Paderborn and meet newly promoted Union Berlin today.
  • After a glorious home win v Dortmund, Union Berlin have struggled.3 consecutive defeats.
  • No clean sheets yet for Union Berlin.
  • Angles in? I do think that the Wolf won't lose today, although Union Berlin may score.

17:00 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Werder Bremen - 2.26 Frankfurt

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 E. Frankfurt home matches against middle-third teams and in 11/20 W. Bremen away matches. W. Bremen have conceded first in 6/9 away matches against top-half teams.
  • Both teams have scored in Frankfurt's last 5 matches.2 2-1 defeats came away from home.1-0, 2-1, 2-2 at home. That 2-2 was v Dortmund.
  • Werder Bremen coincidentally drew 2-2 with Dortmund last match. They are an enigma.3 losses conceding 3 goals, but only 1 loss in 4 matches. 3-2 win, 1-2 away win,0-3 loss v Leipzig, 2-2 v Dortmund.
  • In 4 of Werder's last 5 matches, they scored 2 goals at least.
  • Angles in? I expect goals. Werder have had a look of the Old 'un'reliables' about them but I note that they have scored 2+ goals in 4/5 matches and that may stand them in good stead v a Frankfurt side scoring and conceding at home.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - Lille v Nimes - 1.65 Lille

  • Match outcome: Lille have won 9/10 home matches while Nimes have lost 6/6 away matches against top-six teams. Lille have scored first in 9/10 home matches.
  • Lille's 2 defeats this season came away.
  • 4/4 home wins for last year's 2nd.
  • 2+ goals scored in each home win.
  • Nimes 2 wins came at home. Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss away from home. Nimes have failed to score in 3 away matches and failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Angles? It looks as if Lille like playing at home and scoring 2 goals. Add to that Nimes inability to score recently and it's a recipe for a home win, and an ability for Lille to equalise if conceding first.

16:00 - Rennes v Reims - 2.22 Rennes

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 17/20 Rennes home matches against middle-third teams and in 16/19 Reims away matches. Reims have scored first in 9/15 away matches.
  • 3 consecutive wins for Rennes started their season but it's no win in 5 now and scoring 1-0-1-0-1 goals. Poor stuff for a side beating PSG at the start of the season.
  • 2-1, 1-2, 1-1 at home for Rennes.
  • Reims last away match? A win 0-2 v a certain PSG!! That ended a run of 2 1-0 defeats away. 5 clean sheets in 8 matches for Reims suggests that their defence can click. Failing to score in 4 matches this season suggests another side.
  • Angles? No thanks. Rennes have a look of the inconsistent about them now. Note they are scoring and conceding. But the question is which Reims turns up? The side keeping 5 clean sheets in 8 matches or the side failing to score in 4 matches this season?

20:00 - St Etienne v Lyon - 2.12 Lyon

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Saint-Etienne home matches against middle-third teams and in 8/10 Lyon away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 10/16 Lyon away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • I'm not liking the perceived unreliability of St Etienne this season. Yes, 2-2 draw v Toulouse was a successful trade but on either side of that there were 4 defeats. Wins v Dijon and Nimes came away.
  • What on earth is with Lyon? Started the season with 9 goals to nil in 2 matches but no win since. 2 consecutive away 2-2 draws.
  • Angles? I wrote about angles and confidence in a recent e-letter. This match sees no strong angles and a total lack in confidence in these 2 sides.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 - ADO Den Haag v Ajax - 1.15 Ajax

  • 1st half outcome: Den Haag have lost the first half in 6/8 home matches against Big Two teams while Ajax have had W/W double results in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams. Ajax have won 8/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Only 2 wins for ADO amongst 6 defeats. 3 consecutive defeats. They have failed to score in only their last 2 matches.
  • 6 wins in 7 for Ajax. Things are a bit more competitive away. 2-2, 1-4, 1-4, 1-1 away. Conceding. Also note that Ajax have not scored before halftime in their last 3 matches. So I would not look to back 0-1, 0-2, any unquoted in the halftime score if 0-0 after 20 minutes. That lack of first half goals may have been the Champions League distraction.
  • Angles in? Ajax may concede but should win. They have not been as emphatic as these odds usually suggest of late so do brace for a potential slow start.

13:30 - Fortuna Sittard v Feyenoord - 1.41 Feyenoord

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 5/6 Sittard home matches against top-six teams and in 10/12 Feyenoord away matches against bottom-six teams. Feyenoord have won by two or more goals in 7/13 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Solid win v Twente last weekend for a Feyenoord side who were priced up at similar odds.
  • Fortuna are yet to win this season. Only clean sheet last match.
  • Feyenoord's only loss came v AZ Alkmaar. 3-3-0-5 goals scored last 4 matches.
  • Angles? Feyenoord scored 5 goals at 1.4 odds last weekend so let that be a template of sorts today.

15:45 - Willem II v AZ Alkmaar - 1.79 AZ Alkmaar

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/10 Willem II home matches against top-six teams and in 7/8 AZ Alkmaar away matches against top half non-Big Two teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 7/10 Willem II home matches against top-six teams.
  • No draw yet for Willem II.
  • AZ look solid. Only 1 loss v Vitesse. 6 wins. 4 consecutive wins. 6 clean sheets.
  • 3 losses in 4 for Willem II.
  • They kept only one clean sheet.
  • Angles? AZ look solid. 3 clean sheet wins to nil. 2 of those wins saw a 0-0 at halftime so keep the faith.

15:45 - PSV v VVV Venlo - 1.13 PSV

  • HT/FT: PSV have had W/W double results in 7/9 home matches against middle-third teams while VVV-Venlo have lost the first half in 8/11 away matches. PSV have won 8/8 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • PSV are unbeaten this season.6 wins and 2 draws. 6 wins in their last 7 matches. 3 goals at least scored in 5 matches this season.
  • 5 defeats in 7 for VVV Venlo.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Angles? Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. The only one for PSV was v Ajax. We expect 3+ goals from PSV today. VVV have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches so really should not land a blow.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

  • Only 6 matches into the season may be not enough to form patterns and generate those trading angles. But there are some familiar names already so I thought I would look at their early season form.

12:00 - Sivasspor v Ankaragucu - 1.43 Sivasspor

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 5/8 Sivasspor home matches against middle-third teams and in 5/6 Ankaragucu away matches against top-six teams. Ankaragucu have lost 6/6 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Both teams scored in Sivasspor's last 5 matches with just the one loss. 3 1-1 draws in 4 matches though.
  • Sivasspor have scored in every match.
  • 2 wins for Ankar this season. 2 losses in 3 matches.
  • Is it significant that Ankar's 2 defeats have come v early season 2nd and 5th, and they play early season 6th today?
  • 4-0 and 3-1 loss for Sivasspor v Ankar last season.
  • Angles? No ultra strong reason why Sivasspor are strong favourites today. Is it because Ankar have lost to top form sides (albeit a small sample of 6 matches) already this season?

14:30 - Besiktas v Alanyaspor - 2.08 Besiktas

  • 1st goal: Besiktas have scored first in 8/11 home matches while Alanyaspor have conceded first in 13/20 away matches. Besiktas have won 7/10 home matches against top-six teams.
  • Alanyaspor should be a name familiar to you this season. 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in a row and 2 consecutive trades saw Alanyaspor come from behind. 4 wins and 2 draws sees them unbeaten this season.
  • They do meet one of the big boys who entertained Wolves mid week.
  • But this is a poor start for Besiktas.Only 1 win v Goztepe came at home. They scored and conceded last 4 matches without winning.
  • 0-0 and 2-1 loss for Alanyaspor v Besiktas last season.
  • Besiktas lost only 2 home matches last season.
  • They remain unbeaten this season. 3-0, 1-1, 1-1.
  • Angles in? I am not sure if we can rely upon Alanyaspor as reliable trading vehicles today. This should be a step up for them. The in-play stats will tell all. Note Besiktas, for all their poor start to the season, are unbeaten at home.

17:00 - Gaziantep FK v Basaksehir - 2.02 Basaksehir

  • HT/FT: Istanbul BB have had W/W double results in 6/10 away matches against promoted teams and they have won 11/13 such matches. Top-six promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 53% of home matches against top-half teams since 2014-15.
  • A poor start to the season for Gaziantep saw a hefty loss v Fenerbahce. Since then they are unbeaten.3 wins and 2 draws.
  • They scored and conceded in those unbeaten matches.
  • 4-1, 3-2 (Besiktas), 1-1 at home for Gaziantep.
  • Last year's top 2 team Basaksehir lost their opening 2 matches. Win, Draw, Draw, Win last 4 matches. Only 1 clean sheet came last match.
  • Gaziantep are newly promoted so there is a question mark regarding a first meeting with a last-season top 2 side who only lost 3 away matches last season, 2 v the top 3. There is no doubting that Gaz have started brightly.
  • Angles? That hefty loss to Fenerbahce might be the benchmark against a top 2 Basaksehir side? But a watching brief needed via the in-play stats. Gaz are unbeaten in 5 and have beaten Besiktas at home.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

14:00 - Kalmar FF v AFC Utd - 1.59 Kalmar

  • 1st half outcome: Kalmar FF have drawn the first half in 7/8 home matches against bottom-six teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 9/11 Kalmar FF home matches. AFC United have conceded first in 11/13 away matches.

Kalmar

  • Only 4 wins all season yet are strong favourites?
  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Conceded last 14 matches and last 8 at home.
  • No win in 8 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 3-1 loss to AFC earlier this season.

Conclusions

  • And I will end it here with a question 'would you buy a used car off these dodgepots'? No win in 8 at home, only 4 wins all season and 1.59 favourites. The main reason? 100% defeats for AFC away v the top 11 and they play 12th today, a side they have beaten earlier this season.

14:00 - Hacken v Ostersunds FK - 1.4 Hacken

  • Match outcome: BK Hacken have won 10/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Ostersunds have lost 7/10 away matches. Ostersunds have lost the first half in 7/10 away matches.

Hacken (6th)

  • No win in 4.
  • 2 consecutive 1-2 home defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.
  • 100% wins at home v 9th and lower.

Ostersunds (13th)

  • No win in 11 and in 10 away.
  • 7 consecutive defeats.
  • Conceded last 9 and last 10 away.
  • Only away win v bottom.

Conclusions

  • Osterunds don't travel too well. Hacken should maintain their 100% win record at home v 9th and lower.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, expect 2nd half goals.

16:30 - Elfsborg v Falkenbergs - 1.9 Elfsborg

  • 1st half outcome: If Elfsborg have drawn the first half in 12/17 home matches and there have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 IF Elfsborg home matches. Falkenberg have lost 5/6 away matches against top-half teams.

Elfsborg (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 7 came v Malmo.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 5 at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 14 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home outside of the top 2.
  • 10 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Falkenberg (15th)

  • 6 losses in 7 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • No win in 13 away.
  • Beat the Elf 2-1 earlier this season.

Conclusions

  • I thought Elfsborg's odds would be shorter but I suppose only 1 win in 5 at home tempers enthusiasm. Falkenberg cannot win away. Rely on that? They are even having trouble scoring.

16:30 - Malmo FF v IFK Goteborg - 1.65 Malmo

  • Match outcome: Malmo FF have won 10/12 home matches while IFK Goteborg have lost 7/8 away matches against top-six teams. IFK Goteborg have had L/L double results in 5/8 away matches against top-six teams.

Malmo (2nd)

  • Utter dominance last match but it took an 82nd minute goal for them to win.
  • 6 clean sheet wins in their last 7 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches at home.
  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • 0-0 v IFK earlier this season.
  • No 2nd goal conceded at home.

IFK Goteborg (7th)

  • 2 consecutive away losses.
  • Failed to score last 2 matches.
  • 3 losses v the top 4 away.
  • 14 of 20 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A 0-0 the last time these 2 met but IFK away tend to lose to the top 4. Malmo are in excellent defensive and attacking form.
  • Keep the faith if they have not scored for a while. Malmo tend to find a goal.

SWISS SUPER LEAGUE

  • It's the big 2, and Melissa's best friends the Young Boys of Bern make an appearance. I just want to make you aware of the kick-off times. No need to research these 2 as they are so reliable. Usual rules apply. The expectation of a goal before halftime (confirm via the in-play stats) and the mighty Young Boys to maybe cock it up and then fight back to win (a la Rapid Vienna yesterday).

15:00 - St Gallen v FC Basel - 1.71 FC Basel


15:00 - FC Zurich v Young Boys - 1.56 Young Boys