Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. 13:45 looks a good start for the live chat webinar at DRT Facebook today. See you there. I will try and Telegram whilst live chatting but if busy will be unable to do so. Sunday is usually a little less trying than Saturday.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:00 - West Brom v Crystal Palace - 2.60 Crystal Palace

West Brom - 18th

  • Only 1 win came last match.
  • That's 3 consecutive 1-0 scorelines.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only win came v bottom.
  • All 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Crystal Palace - 15th

  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches away.
  • Only clean sheet first match.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 1-1 v 16th, 1-2 win v 17th, 1-0 loss away v 19th. Play 18th.
  • 4 goals conceded last 15 mins.

Conclusions

  • The market cannot split these 2 teams.
  • If 0-0 at halftime expect 2nd half goals. West Brom have conceded all of their home goals 2nd half.
  • I would lay West Brom if they score first. I think 1-0 win would be their best case. Cover the 1-0 if they score first.

14:15 - Sheffield Utd v Leicester - 2.00 Leicester

Sheffield Utd - 20th

  • All defeats bar a single draw.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 5 consecutive defeats.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Failed to score at home v the top 12.

Leicester City - 4th

  • 4 wins and a loss away.
  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • No draw in 10 matches.
  • All wins away v 11th and lower.
  • 10/13 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 6 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Evens looks quite high about Leicester here who have a 100% win record away v 11th and lower.
  • Sheff Utd are failing to score v the top 12. They have kept no clean sheets.
  • Leicester do score 2nd half so note that if a tight first half.

16:30 - Tottenham v Arsenal - 1.95 Tottenham

  • This is a North London Derby and I won't research this match. I tend not to trade these high profile matches but am happy to be flexible if the in-play stats reveal an angle.

19:15 - Liverpool v Wolves - 1.50 Liverpool

Liverpool - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss came away v Aston Villa.
  • 5 consecutive home wins scoring 2+ goals.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2+ goals scored home and away v the top 8.
  • 5 goals scored end first half at home, and 4 goals scored away end of 2nd half.

Wolves - 7th

  • Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win away.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Have lost away to 4th and 5th.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Wolves have lost to 4th and 5th away which does not augur well for 2nd today.
  • Liverpool are scoring 2+ goals at home and that should be enough.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

12:00 - Ross County v Rangers - 1.15 Rangers

Ross County - 9th

  • 5 losses and 2 draws last 7 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home draws.
  • No win in 6 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 9/13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • All defeats v the top 3 without scoring and conceding 2+ goals.

Rangers - 1st

  • Unbeaten.
  • 13 clean sheets this season.
  • Only failed to score once.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 9/13 goals scored away came 1st half.
  • 2-0 win v Ross county earlier.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Possible win to nil expected.
  • Rangers have scored 2+ goals before halftime recently.

15:00 - Celtic v St Johnstone - 1.28 Celtic

Celtic - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss came v Rangers.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 matches. No draw in 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 50% of goals scored in each half.
  • 3+ goals scored in the 4 home wins.
  • 0-2 win last head to head.

St Johnstone - 7th

  • Unbeaten in 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • 3-5 win and 2-2 away last 2 matches.
  • Conceded last 7 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 9/13 goals conceded away came 1st half.
  • Lost all 3 matches v the top 3.

Conclusions

  • Celtic are definitively out of the Europa League and should return to winning ways today without a distraction.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • When Celtic win at home, they score 3 goals. That is the expectation if they can keep this pattern running.

SPANISH LA LIGA

13:00 - Granada v Huesca - 2.40 Granada


15:15 - Osasuna v Real Betis - 2.6 home and away


17:30 - Villarreal v Elche - 1.33 Villareal

Villareal - 3rd

  • Have qualified for the Europa League so should be focused solely on this match.
  • Only 1 loss.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 at home and remain unbeaten.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 5 goals scored at home 60th minute+.

Elche - 10th

  • 3 consecutive 1-1 draws too.
  • 1-2-1-1 goals scored away.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not met the top 11 away.

Conclusions

  • I like Villareal at home. Whenever they have conceded first, they have equalised. With Elche scoring one goal max in 3/4 away matches, this could continue.
  • The stats tell us to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

20:00 - Alaves v Real Sociedad - 1.80 Real Sociedad

Alaves - 13th

  • Unbeaten in 5 matches including a 1-2 win v Real Madrid latest.
  • Win, Loss, Draw, Draw at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 win at home was a 1-0. Not played the top 6 at home.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half and post 60th minute.

Sociedad - 1st

  • 6 wins and a draw last 7 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • 6/8 clean sheets v the top 15 home and away.
  • 9/12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 3 horse race in the Europa League and this match is sandwiched between 2 Europa League fixtures. It hasn't affected Sociedad's league performance yet.
  • Sociedad have kept 6 clean sheets v the top 15 and that may limit Alaves scoring ability here. Lay Alaves if they score first.
  • If 0-0 at halftime lay the 0-0 2nd half, and wait 60th minute if you want.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Werder Bremen v Stuttgart - 2.50 Stuttgart


17:00 - Schalke v Leverkusen - 1.50 Leverkusen

Schalke - 18th

  • No win.
  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss at home.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 4/4 defeats v the top 5 saw Schalke not score.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal at home.

Leverkusen - 3rd

  • Unbeaten.
  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • 2+ goals scored last 2 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 3/3 wins away v 14th and lower.
  • 5/8 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • This match is sandwiched between 2 Europa League matches for Leverkusen. I think Leverkusen are qualified.
  • If Leverkusen don't throw in one of their wobblies, they have the form v 14th and lower to win today.
  • Schalke should not score that 2nd goal at home so if scoring first, lay them.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Verona v Cagliari - 2.10 Verona

Verona - 7th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Win, Win, Draw, Win, Loss at home.
  • Only 1 home loss came v 4th.

Cagliari - 12th

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded 2 goals + in 7 of their last 8 matches but scored 2+ goals in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side home or away.
  • 8/13 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Put into context, Cagliari scoring 2+ goals in 6 of their last 7 matches is excellent but they have quite simply not beaten a top 10 side home or away and meet such today. Will this pattern continue? If you think so then if Cagliari lead 0-2, lay them.

14:00 - Parma v Benevento - 2.15 Parma

Parma - 16th

  • Only 2 wins, one came last match.
  • Win, Draw, Draw at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only home loss came v 3rd.

Benevento - 15th

  • Only 3 wins, 2 were 1-0.
  • 0-1 win and 1-1 latest.
  • 3-2-1-1 goals scored away.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Away wins v 11th and 17th.
  • 5/7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Benevento, if they haven't scored 1st half, tend to score 2nd half.
  • No ultra strong angles here.

14:00 - Roma v Sassuolo - 1.70 Roma

Roma - 6th

  • Roma were excellent in the Europa League v Young Boys and are qualified so the next Europa League match next week should not be a distraction.
  • Only 2 defeats came 1st and last match.
  • A draw and 3 wins at home.
  • 5 wins in 7 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Failed to score only in the defeats.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 4 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played the top 4 at home.
  • 6 goals scored at home last 15 minutes of the first half.

Sassuolo - 4th

  • Only 1 loss came last match.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 4 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 8 goals scored away last 1/2 hour of matches.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Both sides are scoring 2 goals regularly so this could be a goal fest.
  • If you want to delay until the 30th minute before you lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market, it may be worth it with Roma scoring 2 goals in the last 15 minutes of the first half.

14:00 - Udinese v Atalanta - 2.05 Atalanta

Udinese - 13th

  • A draw and 2 consecutive wins.
  • The only 2 clean sheets this season came within the last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Lost at home to 1st and 6th.
  • 2 home wins came v 16th and lower.

Atalanta - 9th

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 3 consecutive 00's at halftime.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only home loss v 4th.
  • 73% of goals scored and 88% of goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Atalanta are one of those sides with pressing Champions League matters and only 1 match to fix it in. Having failed to score in the 2 matches prior to other Champions League engagements, they really are unreliable at the moment.
  • On seasonal form, we expect a goal at least before halftime.

17:00 - Crotone v Napoli - 1.36 Napoli

Crotone - 20th

  • All defeats and 2 draws.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 5/7 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Napoli - 3rd

  • Lost their last 2 at home but 3 wins in 4 away.
  • All defeats came v the top 5. All wins elsewhere.
  • 4/5 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Napoli top Group F in the Europa League but it is a 3 horse race so they need that focus there. They should not be adversely affected today as they have a 100% win record v 6th and lower, and meet bottom of the league today.

19:45 - Sampdoria v AC Milan - 1.75 AC Milan

Sampdoria - 11th

  • A draw, 2 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Draw, Loss at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored last 4 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played the top 8 at home or the top 4 home or away.
  • 6/7 goals scored at home came 1st half.

AC Milan - 1st

  • Unbeaten.
  • 7 wins and 2 draws last 8 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 2+ goals scored all matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • This match is sandwiched between 2 for AC Milan but as they are unbeaten this season, they do not seem to play under par prior to the Europa League....unlike others I can mention.
  • We must see Zlatan Ibrahimovic playing today as he is basically THE difference for AC Milan domestically and was injured recently.
  • Some gap in form for Sampdoria v the top 8 at home. But if Milan continue to score 2 goals, that should suffice today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 - Feyenoord v Heracles - 1.44 Feyenoord

Feyenoord - 4th

  • Unbeaten.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Draw, Win, Draw, Win at home.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Acored and conceded in 8 matches without losing.
  • All wins home and away v 15th and lower.
  • 6/9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Heracles - 15th

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 away matches.
  • Only clean sheet came 1st match.
  • 11/16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Feyenoord still have unfinished business in the Europa League. They remain unbeaten. Can we rely upon them for another pre-Europa League match? They have tended to score and concede and did equalise from behind last match. More of the same today if Heracles score first?
  • Strong 2nd half scoring trends so note that if a quiet first half.

13:30 - AZ Alkmaar v Groningen - 1.50 AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar - 7th

  • 5 consecutive score draws and 4 consecutive wins last 9 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 2 draws and 2 wins at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Not played the top 10 at home.
  • Only played one of the top 9 home and away.

Groningen - 8th

  • Win, Loss, Win, Loss away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 4/5 wins this season have come v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • AZ still have Europa League business on Thursday but are on a 4 match winning run so don't tend to fall foul of the Curse of the Europa League.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • AZ have scored in every match. Can they keep it up against the top 9?
  • AZ's form is excellent but remember that they have not really played the top 9 home or away so this will be a test of their credentials.

13:30 - Utrecht v Den Haag - 1.22 Utrecht

Utrecht - 9th

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • 2 losses and 2 draws last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded in their last 5 matches and last 4 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only home loss came v 1st.

ADO Den Haag - 16th

  • Only 1 win came away.
  • 5 losses and 2 draws last 7 matches.
  • 4 losses and a win away.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side home or away.
  • 13/17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The stats say to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Utrecht should be favoured based on ADO's away form v the top 10 and concession of 4 goals+.

15:45 - Heerenveen v PSV Eindhoven - 1.73 PSV Eindhoven

Heerenveen - 6th

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Win, Win, Win, Loss at home.
  • Failed to score only in that home defeat v AZ.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played top 5 at home.

PSV Eindhoven - 3rd

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Draw, Win, Loss, Draw away.
  • 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Scored every match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • PSV are already in the Europa League but already qualified so there should be no distractions, but I could have said that about Barcelona!
  • PSV if dropping points do so away from home. We do not know if Heerenveen will be capable of landing a blow given they are yet to play the top 6 at home.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.