Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

See you at 14:00 for the Italian Seria A. I cannot promise a visit from Mystic Meg as happened in last night's live chat which was excellent, nailing some big priced winners (Bologna at 20 to win at halftime, and a 1.08 lay the draw Newcastle match). Yesterday's live chat showed how we can profit when teams play to their form!!


12:00 - Tottenham v C Palace - 1.27 Tottenham

  • 2 consecutive Tottenham 1-0 wins in head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v bottom in the English Premier League.


  • A brilliant mid week 3-1 win v Real Madrid. Will this be 'after the Lord Mayor's show?'
  • Only 2 losses v Chelsea and Man Utd.
  • 2 consecutive wins now have, I hope, put the Wembley 'curse' to bed.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 0-0 at home v 17th, 1-0 at home v 19th and play bottom today.


  • 'New manager' syndrome has seen improved home fortunes with 2-1 and 2-2.
  • Palace have yet to keep a clean sheet.
  • Palace are yet to score away from home. Remember they ended this sequence with a home win v a London team.
  • Positive home results have come v London teams.
  • All defeats away v top 9.


  • Palace are vastly improved under Woy and especially when playing London opponents, albeit at home.
  • Palace will score an away goal eventually. There is a concern that Spurs may be flat after an exceptional win at home v Real Madrid.
  • I do not expect Tottenham to lose today. It might be tight. Tottenham are starting to win at home now so Palace may have to wait for that away win.

14:15 - Man City v Arsenal - 1.51 Man City

  • Both teams have scored in the last 5 head to heads.
  • Very rarely will there be such a warm favourite in a match featuring such sides.

Man City

  • All wins bar a draw.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not met the top 5 at home.
  • 14 of 21 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Led at halftime in 4/5 at home.


  • 5 wins in 7 matches.
  • Terrible away form. Draw v 4th 0-0, losses v 6th, 8th, 14th.
  • All wins have come v 11th and lower.


  • Man City are yet to be tested at home (i.e meet the top 5).
  • So in that respect the form may be hard to pin as we have no form for City v current best top 5 teams at home.
  • Currently Arsenal are dire away from home and best case seems to be a 0-0 as was the case v Chelsea.
  • I must be with Man City today on form and oppose any Arsenal lead.

16:30 - Chelsea v Man Utd - 2.58 Chelsea

  • Matches like these are far too tough to call and best left to in-play stats if we play at all.

16:30 - Everton v Watford - 2.18 Everton

  • New manager syndrome for Everton may see a tactical change for Everton which will make form research difficult.
  • Only 2 wins for Everton who, despite scoring 2 goals at home recently, still lost.
  • Watford still have only 3 defeats but 2 consecutive defeats now saw Stoke stop the 2 goal a game juggernaut.
  • Still, away from home Watford are scoring 2 goals a game.
  • As I say Everton are unreadable currently under David Unsworth and so I am not willing to come to any conclusions until we see patterns form under this new manager.


12:15 - Middlesbrough v Sunderland - 1.71 Middlesbrough

  • Note this is a north east derby and so form could be thrown out of the window.


  • No win in 3 at home saw 2 0-1 defeats.
  • 2 consecutive wins came away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower (Sunderland are 22nd).
  • v 18th and lower, home and away, Boro scored 2 or 3 goals at least.


  • Only 1 win.
  • 4 score draws in 5 matches. Still not getting that 2nd win.
  • Conceded in every match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not yet played a top 8 side away (Boro are 8th) but did score 2 goals v 9th, 10th and 11th (and conceded 1-2-5 by the way!!).
  • Did concede 2 goals AT HOME v 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 7th.
  • 11 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.


  • If you see the Sunderland corner count rise in-play, it signals goals. They have been able to turn corners into goals in recent matches but as you see v 9th-11th away, they cannot shut the back door.
  • If Sunderland have scored 2 goals or take a 2 goal lead, the match may not be over.
  • Boro have been scoring 2+ goals v strugglers this season and that is where Sunderland find themselves.
  • I would back 2-2 and 3-3 pre match here and hope we see a goal fest (which may be abruptly ended as Boro have 2 consecutive 0-1 losses at home). But here is my evidence a) Boro score 2 or 3 v bottom teams home and away b) Sunderland have 4 score draws in 5 matches c) Sunderland have been scoring 2 or more v 9th-11th but conceded 1-2-5 goals v same!).


12:00 - Nice v Dijon - 1.6 Nice

  • 2-1 Nice and 0-1 Nice in the last 2 head to heads.


  • 4 consecutive losses.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in all of the last 5 matches.
  • Both teams scored in the last 3 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored in all home matches.


  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet came last match.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 away matches.
  • Not won at halftime away.


  • Both teams to score is a current pattern for both sides.
  • I would back 2-2 here as a trading angle and hope a) Nice continue to concede 2 but score as they have in all home matches b) Dijon continue to score and concede away.

16:00 - Marseille v Caen - 1.51 Marseille

  • 1-0 and 1-5 Marseille last 2 head to heads.


  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 3-1-1-2-2 goals scored at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played 2nd-9th at home yet (Caen are 7th).
  • Scored first in 4/5 at home.


  • No draw.
  • 0-2-0-1-0 goals scored away.
  • All defeats v top 12 this season (Marseille are 4th).
  • 3 of those defeats were 1-0.


  • Caen have a pronounced defensive bent to them so may be tough to break down for Marseille this evening.
  • It makes it difficult to decide whether there will be a goal before halftime.
  • If Caen continue their struggles v top 12, they will lose 1-0 or 2-0.

16:00 - Metz v Lille - 2.12 Lille

  • 3-2 Metz and 0-2 in the last 2 head to heads.


  • All defeats bar a single win.
  • All home defeats.
  • All draws at halftime at home.
  • Not met a bottom 4 side (these 2 are the bottom 2).
  • Failed to score 2nd half at home - conceded 9 goals 2nd half at home.


  • Only win came 1st match.
  • 0-1-0-0 scored away.


  • Another quick ending to this one. Bottom 2 cannot be trusted.

20:00 - St Etienne v Lyon - 2 Lyon

  • 2-0 Lyon and 2-0 St Etienne in the last 2 head to heads.

St Etienne

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches and in the last 2 matches.
  • Only  1 home loss was a 0-1 last match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played the top 8 at home (3rd placed Lyon).
  • 4 of 5 goals conceded at home came 1st half.


  • Only loss was v PSG.
  • 2-0-0-3-5 goals conceded away.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • In 4 of their last 5 matches, Lyon have scored 3 goals at least.


  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • St Etienne are yet to play top 8 so little to go on but Lyon have goals in them and for me are the team to favour today.
  • I would lay St Etienne if St Etienne scored first today.


14:30 - FC Koln v Hoffenheim - 2.22 Hoff

  • 4-0 Hoff and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Koln are currently bottom of the league.

FC Koln

  • All defeats bar 2 0-0's.
  • 1-0-1-0 scored at home.
  • Not scored a home goal in the first 75 mins of matches.


  • The Hoff are showing glimpses of what we know and love them for.
  • They have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • No win in 4 matches. 2 losses and 2 draws.
  • Scored and conceded in all away matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 3/4 away.
  • Not led at halftime away.


  • On form Hoff should not lose today but they are allowing teams to score. But Koln scoring 1-0-1-0 may not take advantage of the generous Hoff.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in anticipation for goals but really we would be relying only on the Hoff to conjure up a first half goal.
  • Hoff's scoring of 2 goals away consistently should, I hope, be enough against this faltering Koln. Do remember though that sequences do end (ask Palace and their scoreless losing streak!).

17:00 - Wolfsburg v Hertha Berlin - 2.04 Wolfsburg

  • 2-3 and 1-0 Hertha in the last 2 head to heads.


  • 6 consecutive score draws is part of a pattern of 7 score draws in 8 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home 1-1 draws.
  • Only the one clean sheet.
  • 5 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Hertha Berlin

  • Scored and conceded in 6/8.
  • Only clean sheet came 1st match of the season.
  • 0-1-0-1 scored away.


  • Surely Wolfsburg cannot continue with their score draws. This sequence must end soon.
  • They are likely to score today though as Hertha have kept only 1 clean sheet.
  • I would have to lay any late 1-1. 4 consecutive 1-1's must end soon.


11:30 - Inter v Torino - 1.51 Inter

  • I like this season's Inter Milan.
  • 1-2 Torino, 2-1 Inter and 2-2 in the last 3 head to heads.
  • Inter could go top with a win.

Inter Milan

  • All wins bar 2 draws.
  • All wins at home, scoring 3 goals in 3 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 6 goals scored and none conceded first half at home.
  • Scored first in all homes and led at halftime in 4/5 at home.


  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 7 team with 4-0 and 3-0 losses away.
  • No 0-0.


  • Torino are still faltering v top sides and I cannot see a weakness with Inter Milan.
  • Inter tend to score first at home and lead at halftime so we may not see a trade today (a ready angle would be a Torino lead as they would be layable).
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

14:00 - Cagliari v Verona - 1.9 Cagliari

  • 1-0 and 1-2 Verona in the last 2 head to heads.


  • No draw.
  • Only 3 wins.
  • No 0-0.


  • Only 1 win.
  • 3 defeats in their last 4 away.
  • No away win. Not led at halftime away.


  • Another match which I choose not to play in. Cagliari have 3 wins to Verona's single win. Is that enough to give the home side a slight nod?

14:00 - Chievo v Napoli - 1.42 Napoli

  • 5 consecutive Napoli wins in head to heads.


  • Only 4 defeats. 2 consecutive defeats last 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in all home matches.
  • 3-2-3 goals before halftime in last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Have lost all 3 matches v top 6 teams (Napoli are 1st).


  • All wins bar a single draw.
  • Failed to score only in that draw.
  • All away wins.
  • 3 goals scored in away wins v 12th and lower (Chievo are 11th).


  • It looks as if Napoli should outscore Chievo today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Chievo have shown nothing v top 6 teams so far so why suddenly should we expect the win now?

14:00 - Fiorentina v Roma - 2.38 Roma

  • 1-2 and 1-0 last 2 Roma visits.


  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 4 at home, 3 wins and a draw.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 2-1-2-3 goals scored at home recently.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats v current top 6 (Roma are 5th).
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored first in 4/5 at home.


  • No draw saw only 2 defeats.
  • Not conceded an away goal.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Not played top 7 away yet Fiorentina are 7th).


  • Roma look excellent and are yet to concede away. Roma have scored 8 goals in 4 home matches so pose a threat.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Fiorentina tend to score first at home so watch out for that. Roma look strong and should equalise.

14:00 - Juventus v Benevento - 1.07 Juventus

  • It should be a tough afternoon for newly promoted Benevento.
  • A possibility of going top for Juve so you can bet they will be fully focused. Only complacency will defeat them today.
  • Benevento have lost every match this season. They have conceded 6 -2-5-4 goals v top 5 teams and that ties in with a 1.07 quote.
  • With matches such as this the only value that can be extracted is a correct score, on the assumption it will be a win to nil.
  • 4-0, 6-0, 7-0 are potentials today. I tend to back them with Betfair Sportsbook as it allows effective trading in play with the cash out facility. This assumes Benevento do not score. An errant penalty scuppers plans!

14:00 - Lazio v Udinese - 1.33 Lazio

  • Lazio have not conceded in the last 3 head to heads, and won the last 2.


  • All wins bar a draw and a defeat to Napoli.
  • 6 consecutive wins.
  • Rather like Valencia yesterday, Lazio have their scoring boots on. 4-3-1-3-6-2-3-2-5 goals scored recently.
  • They have only kept 3 clean sheets so 2+ goals are a necessity to collect the 3 points.
  • 10 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half - this is skewed by the fact Napoli scored 4.


  • No draw.
  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats ended with an away win last match.
  • Scored in every match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.


  • There are so many inform teams in Italian Seria A right now - Napoli, Juventus, Lazio, Inter Milan it is making for an exciting season.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • A chance Udinese could score today albeit in defeat. They should be outscored by a Lazio who have scored 18 goals in their last 5 matches.
  • We should expect 3 goals in total or more.

17:00 - Atalanta v Spal - 1.32 Atalanta


  • 4 wins and a draw in 5 home matches.
  • Failed to score only 1st match of the season.
  • All wins at home v 12th and lower.
  • No 0-0.


  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • 2+ goals conceded away in the last 4 matches.


  • Atalanta are strong favourites. They are expected to score 2 goals at least today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Atalanta tend to beat 12th and lower.

19:45 - Sassuolo v AC Milan - 2.14 Milan

  • Sassuolo have won the last 2 home head to heads, hence the lukewarm odds for AC Milan.


  • Only 2 wins were 0-1 away wins.
  • 0-1-0-0-0 scored at home tells the story.
  • No win at halftime at home.
  • Have lost all matches v top 10 scoring in 4/5 of them (Milan are 8th).


  • Not quite up to standard as far as a title bid is concerned.
  • Only 1 win in 6.
  • No draw away.
  • All defeats have significantly come v top 6 sides (Sassuolo are 17th).


  • On the face of it, we have poor recent form from Milan but we need a context. All defeats have come v top 6 and they play 17th today so form wise they should be eyeing a win or draw.
  • Sassuolo are having trouble even scoring at home. Milan have found scoring v 11th and lower easy so I would expect a comfortable enough afternoon for the Milanese. As I hinted, they should not be losing this match. Clearly they are vulnerable v top 6, but score 2+ elsewhere.


11:30 - ADO Den Haag v Feyenoord - 1.48 Feyenoord

  • 4 consecutive wins in head to heads for Feyenoord.


  • 5 losses this season. 2 losses came within the last 3 matches.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • 5 defeats and a draw v top 9 teams (Feyenoord are 6th).
  • No 0-0.


  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 2 of 3 defeats this season came v top 2 teams.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored away came 1st half.


  • Feyenoord are likely to score first. Do not be worried with the recent form. On further inspection, 2 of Feyenoord's 3 defeats came v the current top 2.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • ADO on form tend to lose to current top 9 so that would be my expectation for this match.

13:30 - Ajax v Utrecht - 1.27 Ajax

  • 3-2 and 0-1 Ajax in the last 2 head to heads.


  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • 4-4-4-3 scored last 4 matches.
  • No home draw. No draw at halftime at home.
  • 8 out of 11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

FC Utrecht

  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 away.
  • Losses at home v 1st and 4th away suggests potential struggles.


  • Ajax look worth favourites. Utrecht have struggled to beat top 4 sides and should do so again.
  • Ajax are in hot goal scoring form so do not be shocked if they score 3+ again.
  • Utrecht are layable if scoring first.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

13:30 - Vitesse v Zwolle - 1.91 Vitesse

  • 3-1 scorelines last 2 head to heads for each side.


  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Lost to PSV last home match.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 matches.
  • Scored and conceded all home matches.
  • Losses at home v 1st and 4th. play 3rd today.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded away came 1st half.


  • Only 1 defeat.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 away loss v 2nd but 3 other draws. Just the one win.


  • Zwolle have only 1 loss but only 1 win away. Both teams could score today.
  • Tough to call. Vitesse losses at home v top 4 and play 3rd today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market as Vitesse tend to concede, if they concede, 1st half.

15:45 - PSV v Twente - 1.2 PSV

  • 1-1 and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.


  • All wins bar an away loss.
  • 7-4-5-3-4 goals scored recently. Twente had better get that defence straightened out.
  • All home wins.
  • Clean sheet wins in 4 home matches.


  • All 3 wins came at home.
  • No draw this season so all away defeats.
  • 0-0-0-1 scored in recent aways.
  • Conceded 2 goals in defeats to top 6 away and PSV are 1st.


  • This is not the Twente of old. They should be losing today and have trouble scoring. PSV should simply blow them away and score 2 goals at least.
  • A simple angle in so take on any Twente lead.


11:00 - Levante v Girona - 2.38 Levante

  • Only 2 wins for Levante .....but only 2 defeats. Yes Levante have a touch of draw itis.
  • Levante have only 1 loss at home but 3 draws.
  • We know that the likes of Valencia and Villareal have goals in them so to see Levante keep them to 1-1 and a 1-0 win  at home says a lot about their defence.
  • Indeed Levante even beat goalscorers Sociedad 3-0.
  • If you thought that was an impressive selection of giant killings, well Girona have just beaten real Madrid 2-1 after drawing with Atl Madrid 2-2.
  • 3-3 away v Celta Vigo and 1-2 win away v Deportivo sees the newcomers in fine fettle.
  • I was going to side with Levante given their superb defence v established goal scorers but now I see Girona with 2 consecutive wins.
  • Girona have scored and conceded last 4.
  • A slight nod for me towards Levante just because it takes something to keep Valencia, Villareal and Sociedad quiet.

15:15 - Celta Vigo v Athletic Bilbao - 2.18 Celta Vigo

  • A quick peak at the form and this is not an appealing match. Both teams' form is messy and lacks any strong patterns.
  • I can make arguments for either side too. Celta have 3 wins and a loss v teams below them in the league (where Bilbao are) and Bilbao have 4 of 5 defeats v top 8 (Celta are 14th).
  • We don't have to trade every match, just pick the readable matches.

17:30 - Sociedad v Eibar - 1.62 Sociedad

  • 2-0 Eibar and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.


  • 2 defeats and 2 draws last 4 home.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 home defeats v the current top 4 (Eibar are 17th).
  • Have beaten 14th-16th-18th away from home so should be encouraged with home advantage.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • Scored first in only 1/5 home matches.


  • Only 2 wins.
  • 2 draws in 3 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.3-6-3-3 conceded.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Not scored a first half goal away.


  • With Sociedad beating 14th and lower away and playing 17th at home, they should eye the win today.
  • Eibar are conceding 3+ albeit v the cream but Sociedad have shown a propensity for goals and should score 2 goals at least today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Sociedad on form should be leading at halftime but......intriguingly they have conceded first in 4/5 home matches so watch an early Eibar strike and take them on.

17:30 - Villarreal v Malaga - 1.54 Villareal

  • 0-2 Villareal and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.


  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
  • 3 wins and a draw in 4 home matches.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 3+ goals scored in wins v 17th and lower (Malaga are 19th).
  • 8 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.


  • Only win came last match.
  • 5 away defeats and failed to score.
  • Conceded in every match.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.


  • You don't score, you don't win. Villareal will be eyeing the win today against a Malaga finding it hard to even score away.
  • We could see 3 goals again from Villareal.
  • Do note a strong 2nd half bias scoring for Villareal and conceding for Malaga so any 0-0 at halftime, fear not!

19:45 - Real Madrid v Las Palmas - 1.09 Real Madrid

  • No longer can we dive straight in and back Real Madrid. Their poor run recently has Zidane's hair turning grey.
  • 2-2 and 3-3 in the last 2 head to heads.

Real Madrid

  • Beaten by Girona - well that was a shock! Beaten 3-1 by Tottenham. Not as much of a shock.
  • That's 2 defeats for a usually flawless Madrid.
  • Draw, Draw, Loss, Win, Win at home is also unheard off. Expectation is usually for a 100% home record.
  • Failed to score only once - that was the only 0-0 at halftime.

Las Palmas

  • All defeats bar 2 wins.
  • Failed to score in 4 aways.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Have conceded 8 goals in the last 3 away matches but they were all conceded 2nd half.
  • All defeats away v top 6 without scoring.


  • Patience....or rather frustration could be the watchword in the first half here. Las Palmas are likely to be tough to score against first half. So do not be surprised with a 0-0 or a failure for Real to score by halftime.
  • If Real were not in this slump I would expect 2 goals at least from them today.
  • Do note the score draws in head to heads too! It all makes for a lay of Real if they lead especially. They are certainly layable at 1.1 (put it this way, I would not back this lot given the evidence above!).

15:00 - Hearts v Kilmarnock - 1.77 Hearts

  • 0-0 and 0-1 Hearts in the last 2 head to heads.


  • 4 of 5 defeats came away. Last defeat was at home to Rangers.
  • If you recall this is a Hearts will only 2 home matches played this season so little home form to work from.
  • They have failed to score in only 3 matches.


  • Only 1 win.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 away draws v Rangers and Celtic of all people! That is 3 1-1 draws v the top 3 in the SPL and a win in their last 4 aways.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.


  • A peculiar fixture list leaves us with little home form to work with from Hearts.
  • Kilmarnock though must be counted here given their superb 3 away 1-1 draws v the big 3 in the SPL. On that basis I would be a contrarian here and oppose any lead from the 1.77 favourites Hearts.