Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I would love to do a live chat webinar today but I have family round. One of the advantages of an extended stay in Guernsey. I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:00 - Burnley v Sheffield Utd - 2.75 Sheff Utd

  • Not sure of the geography but a derby element here. A match featuring 2 sides who have top 5/6 pretentions but will require 100% wins and results to simply fall their ways.
  • It's a market, at 2.7 the favourite, screaming out in-play stats! Where on Earth did Sheff Utd get 3 goals from last match where they failed to score in the previous 3 matches? I don't recall them bringing on Sean Bean during that match.

14:15 - Newcastle v West Ham - 2.7 both sides


16:30 - Liverpool v Aston Villa - 1.33 Liverpool

  • Dead rubber Liverpool. Will they play the cast of Brookie and Bread in lieu of the First Team? Villa will hope so. Villa will also hope that Liverpool play as they did against Manchester City i.e. a few players with minds elsewhere.
  • No win in 8 for Villa who conceded in their last 16 away.
  • 1-2 Liverpool win last head to head.

19:00 - Southampton v Man City - 1.32 Man City

  • Saints are 13 points clear of the relegation zone.
  • Man City are 8 points clear of 3rd place.
  • 6 matches remain for Saints who have 4 wins equivalent ahead of the relegation zone.
  • 7 matches remain for Man City so it is unfinished business for them because a top 4 place is not yet confirmed.
  • 4 losses in 5 at home for Saints.
  • 3 losses in 4 away for Man City.
  • 3/3 losses for Saints v the top 2 .Only 1 loss home and away for Man City v 9th and lower.
  • Angles? With work still to be done, expect a fully motivated Man City. Saints have scored in 2/3 losses v the top 2. Watch out for that.

SPANISH LA LIGA

13:00 - Ath. Bilbao v Real Madrid - 1.6 Real Madrid

Ath Bilbao - 7th

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches came v Barcelona.
  • 3 wins and a draw in their last 4 at home.
  • 0-0 last head to head.
  • Not scored a 2nd goal home or away v the top 6.

Real Madrid - 1st

  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • 2 consecutive away wins.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v the top 10.

Conclusions

  • This could be a tight match given the last head to head. But for me Ath Bilbao are yet to score that 2nd goal v the top 6 and that is a stat I will remember if they score first. Remember Real Madrid are unbeaten v the top 10.

16:00 - Espanyol v Leganes - 2.6 Espanyol

  • Not researching this one or the Osasuna match given the pre-match odds. Please use the in-play stats.

18:30 - Osasuna v Getafe - 2.55 Getafe


21:00 - Villarreal v Barcelona - 1.73 Barcelona

Villareal - 5th

  • 5 wins and a draw since lockdown.
  • 5 clean sheets.
  • 5 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored last 8 at home.
  • 3/3 draws v top 4 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v the top 15.
  • 2-1 loss v Barca earlier.
  • 15 of 19 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Barcelona - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss in 12 came v 2nd.
  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 2-2 draws.
  • Only 2 wins away v the top 12 came v 3rd and 6th.

Conclusions

  • Villareal have been excellent post lockdown, particularly with clean sheets.
  • Both sides like the draws. 3/3 draws v top 4 at home for Villareal, 2 consecutive 2-2 draws for Barcelona.
  • Villareal not to win, but can't discount the draw? Can we trust Barca with their 3 losses in 4 matches.

ITALIAN SERIA A

16:15 - Inter Milan v Bologna - 1.44 Inter Milan

Inter Milan - 3rd

  • Win, Draw, Win, Win post lockdown, scoring 2-3-2-6 goals.
  • 3 wins and a 3-3 at home last 4.
  • No defeat 11 at home.
  • Scored last 7 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • 1-2 win v Bologna earlier.

Bologna - 11th

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches away.
  • No draw in 11 away.
  • Conceded last 24 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Lost away to 1st and 2nd.

Conclusions

  • Inter Milan have impressed post lockdown but Bologna too have 3 wins in 4 matches away.
  • Inter are strong at home, unbeaten in 11. Will that continue without a crowd?
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Bologna have conceded last 24 matches. Remember that.

18:30 - Brescia v Verona - 1.75 Verona

Brescia - 20th

  • No win in 14 matches and in 7 at home.
  • Conceded in those matches.
  • 100% defeats home and away v the top 8.
  • 2-1 loss v Verona earlier.
  • 11 of 15 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Verona - 8th

  • Only 2 losses in 14 matches.
  • 5 draws and a loss last 6 away matches.
  • 3 goals scored in each of last 2 matches.
  • 5/5 wins home and away v 17th and lower.

Conclusions

  • With 6 goals in 2 games, Verona are scoring just when Brescia don't want them to. Brescia have conceded last 14 so note that. Brescia have 100% defeats home and away v the top 8 and Verona 100% wins v 17th and lower. It looks clear cut on seasonal form.

18:30 - Cagliari v Atalanta - 1.52 Atalanta

Cagliari - 9th

  • 2 wins and a draw last 3 matches.
  • 5 matches without a win at home ended with a 4-2 win v Torino.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 9 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats at home v the top 7.
  • 0-2 win v Atalanta earlier.
  • 19 of 29 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 19 of 25 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Atalanta - 4th

  • 8 wins and a 2-2 last 9 matches.
  • 7 consecutive wins, 4 away.
  • Scored last 17 and last 7 away.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 9 matches.
  • Not played 7th-10th away.

Conclusions

  • Slight gap in form with Atalanta away. They have scored last 17 matches and scored 2+ goals last 9 matches. They could simply outscore Cagliari today.
  • Very strong 2nd half goals records for Cagliari so make sure you lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

18:30 - Sampdoria v Spal - 1.88 Sampdoria

Sampdoria - 16th

  • 5 consecutive 2-1 scorelines, 3 were wins.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 matches and last 4 at home.
  • Opponent scored first in 11/15 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower.
  • 0-1 win v SPAL last time.
  • 12 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Spal - 19th

  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 9 away.
  • Scored last 5 away.

Conclusions

  • I must be with Sampdoria based on their record v 14th and lower home and away. Samp do score a lot 2nd half so note that if a barren first half.

18:30 - Udinese v Genoa - 2.35 Udinese

Udinese - 14th

  • Only 1 win in 10 was a surprise win v Roma latest.
  • Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss away.
  • Only 2 defeats at home v 6th and lower.
  • 1-3 win v Genoa earlier.
  • 12 of 15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Genoa - 17th

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • 2-3-2-2 goals scored last 4 away.
  • All draws away v 13th and lower.
  • 13 of 19 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • If Genoa can find their 2 goal touch away as they have done last 4, then they will have a chance here today, but then if Udinese find the scoring display as per their win v Roma then.....
  • You may want to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Genoa's high % of goals scored first half.

20:45 - Napoli v Roma - 2.10 Napoli

Napoli - 6th

  • 3 points outside a top 5 spot.
  • 5 consecutive wins ended v Atalanta.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 at home. Conceded last 8 at home.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 7.
  • 2-1 loss v Roma earlier.

Roma - 5th

  • 3 losses, 3 wins, 2 losses recently.
  • 2 consecutive 2-0 losses.
  • Not beaten top 7 away.

Conclusions

  • Both sides tend to falter v fellow top 7 sides making it tough to trust these teams but prior to that loss v Atalanta, Napoli were more consistent than Roma and that may see the home side unbeaten.