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ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Brescia v Lazio - 1.55 Lazio

  • Match outcome: Brescia have lost 6/8 home matches while Lazio have had W/W double results in 7/11 away matches against bottom-six teams. Lazio have won 13/20 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Brescia

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 1 loss in 4.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats at home v the top 12.
  • 6/8 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Lazio

  • 8 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • 2+ goals scored last 11 and last 5 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • As long as they haven't had too many after-eight mints, Lazio should pick up where they left off and score 2 goals at least which should clinch the win.
  • We never know with newly promoted at home. They may raise their game, and only 1 loss in 4 augurs well but simply, 100% defeats at home v the top 12 for Brescia.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

14:00 - SPAL v Hellas Verona - 2.62 SPAL

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/10 SPAL 1907 home matches against middle-third teams and they have drawn the first half in 6/10 home matches. Verona have scored first in 5/7 away matches.
  • The market suggests a toughie. Only 3 wins for SPAL.
  • SPAL have not played 9th-15th at home and play 13th today.
  • 4 of Hellas' 5 wins this season came v 15th-18th and they play 19th today.
  • Hellas have only played one of 9th and lower away so another gap in form.
  • Next please!!

17:00 - Genoa v Sassuolo -  2.42 Genoa

  • 1st half outcome: Genoa have drawn the first half in 9/12 home matches against middle-third teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 11/18 Genoa home matches. Sassuolo have conceded first in 7/11 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Genoa - 20th

  • Bottom.
  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • 2 consecutive home 0-1 defeats.
  • Not beaten a top 14 side home or away.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Sassuolo - 12th

  • Only 5 wins.
  • Unbeaten last 5 away.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 3/3 wins v 17th and lower, 2 came at home.
  • Unbeaten away v 11th and lower.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 1st half.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Sassuolo must be given a chance surely? Unbeaten away v 11th and lower. 3/3 wins v 17th and lower.. Unbeaten in 5 away v a Genoa not beating the top 14 home or away.
  • The market suggests these 2 are on equal footing.

19:45 - Roma v Torino - 1.53 Roma

  • 1st half outcome: Roma have won the first half in 7/9 home matches against middle-third teams while Torino FC have conceded first in 11/20 away matches against top-six teams. Torino FC have drawn 5/8 away matches against top-six teams.

Roma - 4th

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 7 wins in their last 9 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home (25%).
  • Scored and conceded in the 5 wins v 8th-13th.
  • 7/11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Torino - 10th

  • Only 2 defeats in 6 matches.
  • 2 wins and a draw last 3 away.
  • 25% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 1 away win v top 17.

Conclusions

  • Torino hit a bit of away form but only 1 win away v top 17 is the worry here v a Roma with 7/9 wins, 4 consecutive home wins and scoring 2+ goals at home recently. The recent Torino wins away have come v strugglers. I cannot see them getting the better of Roma.
  • Is 75% of matches goal before halftime enough to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market?

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Granada v Mallorca - 1.99 Granada

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/9 Granada CF home matches and they have drawn the first half in 6/9 home matches. Mallorca have lost 7/8 away matches.

Granada - 11th

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches. 6 losses.
  • Scored last 8 at home.
  • 56% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 4 wins v teams below them, 3 were 1-0. All clean sheets.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Mallorca - 17th

  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • 7 losses and a draw last 8 away.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 2+ goals conceded last 4 away.
  • Conceded last 9 and last 8 away.
  • 5/7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Mallorca, when we last left them, tended to concede 2 goals away. Granada tend to beat teams below them at home, albeit 3 were 1-0 wins.
  • High % 0-0 at halftime Granada so 0-0 HT no surprise. Maybe 1-0 2nd half to Granada?

13:00 - Sociedad v Villareal - 1.98 Sociedad

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/10 Real Sociedad home matches against middle-third teams and in 10/11 Villarreal away matches. Villarreal have lost 7/11 away matches.

Sociedad - 5th

  • Only 2 defeats in 10.
  • Scored and conceded 10/12 recently.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 at home.
  • 25% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower.
  • Lost at home v 9th though.

Villareal - 10th

  • A run of 6 without a win ended with 2 consecutive wins.
  • 3 losses then a win away.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Wins away v 3rd, 19th and 20th.
  • 10 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 2 of Villareal's away wins came v 19th and 20th and that suggests they may fall flat of 5th in the league, a side with only 2 defeats in 10 and unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower. Sociedad are scoring and conceding and if season form continues, Villareal may score without winning.

15:00 - Alaves v Betis - 2.66 Alaves

  • 1st goal: Alaves have scored first in 6/8 home matches against bottom-half teams while Real Betis have lost the first half in 7/11 away matches against bottom-half teams. Real Betis have lost 8/13 away matches.

Alaves - 15th

  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 at home.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (67%).
  • Only 1 match played at home v 5th-13th - gap in form. Only lost to 2nd and 3rd at home though.
  • 9 of 11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Betis - 13th

  • 2 losses in 8 came at home v big guns Sevilla and Atl Madrid.
  • Scored and conceded in 11/13 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 6.
  • Noticeably poorer away but 3 2-1 wins, a 1-1 draw and 2-2 draw v 16th and lower home and away.

Conclusions

  • Alaves may keep it to 0-0 at halftime but I would not expect 0-0 fulltime, what with this Betis scoring and conceding.
  • Slight nod towards Betis given their form v 16th and lower (could score and concede but not lose).

20:00 - Celta Vigo v Osasuna - 2.08 Celta Vigo

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Celta Vigo home matches against middle-third teams and in 7/9 Osasuna away matches. Osasuna have conceded first in 7/9 away matches.

Celta Vigo - 18th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 2 home wins were 1-0 v 7th and 8th.

Osasuna - 12th

  • Only 5 wins.
  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Not won at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.
  • All 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Only 3 wins plays only 5 wins. Not too sharp these 2.
  • If Celta lead, you may want to lay them, but cover the 1-0. 2 home wins were only 1-0.
  • Osasuna, if they haven't scored first half, are more likely to score 2nd half away. They are, intriguingly, unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower....

GREEK SUPER LEAGUE

13:00 - AEK Athens v Panaitolikos - 1.27 AEK

  • Match outcome: AEK Athens have won 8/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Panetolikos have lost 10/13 away matches. AEK Athens have had W/W double results in 8/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.

AEK Athens - 3rd

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only home loss came first match of the season.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Scored last 8 at home.
  • All home wins v 9th and lower.

Panaitolikos - 13th

  • Only win came last match.
  • Prior to that win, failed to score in 5.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 away matches.
  • All defeats v the top 3.

Conclusions

  • It looks good for AEK Athens here. Panaitolikos are unlikely to record a 2nd consecutive win, and they have trouble even scoring. AEK should eye 2 goals at least today.

15:15 - Panionios v Lamia - 2.46 Panionis

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/9 Panionios home matches against middle-third teams while Lamia have drawn the first half in 10/12 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been -1.5 goals in 6/8 Panionios home matches against middle-third teams.

Panionios - 14th

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of 4.
  • 1-1 v Lamia the last time.

Lamia - 10th

  • A loss and 2 draws.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Have lost 4-1 away v 12th.

Conclusions

  • Not a match which appeals. As you can see, 2 sides lacking any winning momentum.

17:30 - Olympiakos v Panathanaikos - 1.32 Olympiakos

  • Match outcome: Olympiakos have won 15/16 home matches while Panathinaikos have lost 3/5 away matches against Big Two teams. Olympiakos have won by two or more goals in 12/16 home matches.

Olympiakos - 2nd

  • Unbeaten.
  • 3 clean sheets last 4.
  • Failed to score last match.
  • 7 wins and a draw last 8 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored last 8 at home.
  • All wins bar a 1-1 v 1st at home.

Panathanaikos - 7th

  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away draws (3 score draws).
  • No defeat in 8 and in 6 away.
  • 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.

Conclusions

  • 2 big names in Greece. Olympiakos are showing something like the dominance we'd expect of them and should go unbeaten. Panathanaikos are drawing regularly - best case for them I feel. I would be more confident laying Panathanaikos if they scored first. Oly have scored in their last 8 at home.

ISRAEL LIGAT Ha'al

17:00 - Ashdod v Hapoel Ra'anana - 2.08 Ashdod

  • 1st half outcome: Ashdod have drawn the first half in 9/12 home matches while Hapoel Ra'anana have drawn 6/10 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Hapoel Ra'anana away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • A quick look here and it is only 2 wins playing only 1 win.
  • 4 draws in 6 plays 5 draws in 6.
  • A match making very little appeal. I do tend to want to focus on the bigger names if plundering this league.

18:15 - Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Be'er Sheva - 1.86 Beer

  • 1st half outcome: Hapoel Tel Aviv have lost the first half in 6/8 home matches against top-six teams while H Be'er Sheva have won the first half in 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams. Hapoel Tel Aviv have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against top-six teams.

Hapoel Tel Aviv  - 9th

  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 home win.
  • Failed to score last 3 home.
  • All 3 home losses v the top 3.

Beer - 4th

  • All hail to the Ale!
  • Inconsistent recent form. 2 losses, 1 win, 2 losses, 2 wins.
  • 2 consecutive 0-1 away wins.
  • 3-0 win v Hapoel Tel Aviv already this season.
  • Only 2 away defeats v 1st and 13th.

Conclusions

  • Advantage the Beer on head to heads and away form. Only 2 defeats. Beer are 4th and Hapoel have lost 3/3 v the top 3.
  • Yes, keeping clean sheets of late but remember Beer scored 3 against them last time these 2 met.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

15:00 - Rio Ave v Maritimo - 1.6 Rio Ave

  • 1st goal: Rio Ave have scored first in 7/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while Maritimo have lost 10/10 away matches against top-six teams. Maritimo have had L/L double results in 9/12 away matches against top-six teams.

Rio Ave - 6th

  • A draw and 2 wins last 3 matches at home.
  • 2 consecutive home 1-0 wins.
  • Not played 13th-17th at home but beat 12th and 18th.
  • Unbeaten v 11th and lower.

Maritimo - 13th

  • Only 3 wins, 2 of those were 1-0 only.
  • 2 draws and 2 losses last 4 away.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Not played 2nd-6th away.

Conclusions

  • Based on Maritimo's away form, Rio Ave look as if they can justify the odds albeit it may not be a goal fest. Slight gaps in form I hope don't cloud this match.

17:30 - Sporting Lisbon v Porto - 2.18 Porto

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Sporting CP home matches against Big Three teams and in 9/11 FC Porto away matches against Big Three teams. FC Porto have won the first half in 7/10 away matches.
  • Big derby may suggest playing via the in-play stats.
  • More of a must win for Sporting Lisbon than Porto given the gap 3rd to 2nd.

Sporting - 3rd

  • 6 wins and 2 losses last 8 matches. The 2 losses came away.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4.
  • Not played top 2 yet.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Porto - 2nd

  • Only loss 1st match of the season.
  • Scored every match.
  • Clean sheets in all bar 4 matches.
  • Couple of recent 1-1's away.

Conclusions

  • Must win for Sporting as Porto and Benfica are started to run away. Porto have scored in every match so note that today.
  • Sporting have not played the top 2 yet but are on a decent enough home winning run.
  • Porto are tough to score against and consistently so. Only 4 matches without clean sheets might swing things in their favour (as far as keeping Sporting to a single goal at most?).
  • Do please remember that these top rival derbies could simply go to best on the day.

20:00 - Famalicao v Setubal - 2 Famalicao

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 5/6 Famalicao home matches and +3.5 goals in 4/6 Famalicao home matches. Vitoria FC have lost 10/11 away matches against top-six teams.

Famalicao - 4th

  • 4th based really on pre November form.
  • 2 draws and 4 defeats last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets came first 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 at home.
  • 2+ goals conceded last 5 matches overall.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only played one of the top 9 at home.
  • 67% of goals scored and 70% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Setabul - 7th

  • Only 3 defeats came away from home.
  • A draw and 2 consecutive wins.
  • Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches all season.
  • 3/3 defeats away v the top 6, 2 were 1-0.

Conclusions

  • Setabul can threaten a 0-0 so note that (mostly at home) but only 2 over 2.5 goals matches all season may suggest backing 0-0 pre match and hoping their defence bosses this match at least until we can cash out for a profit.
  • Famalicao have had a great season but are struggling of late with no win in 6. They have scored 2+ goals in their last 5 at home but may struggle to score 2 v Setabul.
  • An interesting match.