Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, February 5, 2023

I'll put up a provisional live chat webinar today at 14:00 - I say 'provisional' as anything could happen with my Dad. It looks as if yesterday was an ample reminder to you that NEW MANAGER matches do need to be treated with kid gloves. Well done the Toffees! I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook and look forward to the 14:00 live chat and apologise in advance for any no-show. You will understand the latter should it occur I hope.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

14:00 - Nottingham Forest v Leeds - 2.60 Nottingham Forest

  • 2.6 the favourite suggests a wide-open affair but Forest's home form surely deserves shorter odds?
  • Only 2 losses in 10 for Forest came v Arsenal and Man Utd. Forest are unbeaten in 6 at home, scoring last 8 at home.
  • They have had 3 consecutive under 2.5 goals at home. 13th v 15th, Forest are unbeaten at home v 8th-16th inclusive conceding 2 goals just once.
  • 3 draws in 4 for a Leeds side without a win in 6.
  • Their only away win came v Liverpool.
  • v 5th-14th away, Leeds have 6 losses and a 1-2 win.
  • Angles? 2.6 the favourite suggests leave alone but I will watch with a bias towards a Forest side whose 6-match home unbeaten run and unbeaten home run v 8th-16th stands them in good stead. Only Man Utd and Arsenal have beaten Forest recently.
  • Leeds are about as readable as a Jeffrey Archer novel.

16:30 - Tottenham v Man City - 1.73 Man City

  • Flirting with 'derby style' match this one.
  • This is a top 5 clash.
  • Only 4 wins in 11 is manager-sacking type of form for Spurs.
  •  Wins v Bournemouth, Leeds, Crystal Palace and Fulham hardly have Man City shaking.
  • 4-2 loss to them as recently as 19th January is an immediate gauge. Tottenham led 0-2 at halftime and might be vulnerable if leading today.
  • City's 2 away defeats came v Liverpool and Man Utd.
  • Angles? Tottenham's form is very poor recently and the recent 4-2 loss to City should really have us favouring the away side, even if they concede first.

Scottish Premiership

12:00 - St Johnstone v Celtic - 1.22 Celtic

  • 8th v 1st.
  • 5 consecutive defeats, 3 at home for St Johnstone.
  • St J conceded last 5 at home.
  • St J. has scored in 6 of their last 7 home matches.
  • 1-2 loss and 4-1 loss for St J. v Celtic this season.
  • Both teams have scored v the top 4 at home.
  • Only 1 loss for Celtic.Only 1 away loss. 7 wins and a draw last 8 away. 100% Celtic wins v 7th and lower.
  • Angles? Celtic, like Rangers, are dependable. Yes, these 1.22 shots may not score before halftime when expected to but they will tend to conjure up a win and 2+ goals.
  • 20-minute rule may apply today. Both teams to score a possible with this St J. side v the top 4 at home.

German Bundesliga

14:30 - Stuttgart v Werder Bremen - 2.15 Stuttgart

Stuttgart - 15th

  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 at home.
  • 2+ goals conceded in 4 of the last 6 matches.
  • Conceded last 14 and last 9 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 13 side home or away.
  • 100% conceding rate at home.
  • 89% 1st half conceding rate at home.
  • 8/11 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Werder Bremen - 10th

  • 4 consecutive defeats ended in a win at home v Wolfsburg.
  • For me, Werder are about recent history. The last 3 away matches were all defeats, conceding 2-6-7 goals. The latter 13 goals is something Werder addressed v Union Berlin where they were far tighter albeit in defeat. 90th-minute goal only conceded last match in a win.
  • Scored and conceded last 6.
  • No draw in 11.
  • v 13th and lower, 2 wins away v 13th and 16th.
  • 88% conceding rate away.

Conclusions

  • I think Werder will be eyeing another improved defensive performance after conceding 13 goals last 2 away but just a 90th-minute goal last match.  Both teams have a very high conceding rate so both teams to score is an obvious call on that basis.
  • Take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Stuttgart's 8/11 home goals conceding first half.

16:30 - Wolfsburg v Bayern Munich - 1.61 Bayern Munich

Wolfsburg - 7th

  • 10 consecutive matches unbeaten, including 6 consecutive wins, ended v Werder Bremen latest.
  • 4 wins in 5 at home and have scored 3-2-4-2-6- goals at home recently.
  • 11 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • 2+ goals scored last 6 at home.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Scored last 11.
  • Not played top 3 at home.
  • Beat 4th and 5th at home.
  • 88% scoring rate at home, 1st half, 2nd half and scoring both halves all 88%.
  • 8/10 goals conceded at home 1st half.
  • 7 goals scored last 15 mins home.

Bayern - 1st

  • 3 consecutive 1-1 draws is surely a target to end?
  • No defeat in 11 and in 5 away scoring in all of those.
  • Led at halftime in 7/9 away.
  • Not played 7th-12th away.
  • 10 goals scored away 31st to 45th minute.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • IF Bayern need a goal, or look like threatening a goal entering the 30th minute, take a chance and lay that 0-0 halftime score market there if you want to delay.
  • Gaps in form for both teams is really not ideal.
  • Wolfsburg have been in solid home goalscoring form. We may see both teams to score but do lay any late 1-1 as that Bayern sequence is not only losing them points, but a long sequence near its natural end.

Spanish La Liga Primera

13:00 - Mallorca v Real Madrid - 1.70 Real Madrid

Mallorca - 10th

  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 8 consecutive home under 2.5 goals.
  • 4-1 loss last head-to-head.
  • 3/3 losses v the top 3, albeit 2 were 1-0.
  • 2 goals have been scored only once by either side in a Mallorca home match, and that was a 1-2 loss v Real Betis.
  • No 0-0 at fulltime at home.

Real Madrid - 2nd

  • Loss, Win, Loss, Win away recently.
  • 0-0 latest sees 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • No draw in 10 away.
  • Scored last 10 away.
  • 100% wins v 9th and lower away scoring 2+ goals in all bar 1 of those matches.

Conclusions

  • Real Madrid should win if they can score 2+ goals as they have done generally v 9th and lower away.
  • 2 goals is a rarity in a Mallorca home match so do remember that should Real struggle as they have done away recently.
  • Lay any late 0-0. You might want to back said 0-0 pre-match if you hope Mallorca can keep it tight and collect another 0-0 at halftime.

15:15 - Girona v Valencia - 2.20 Girona

  • Girona newly promoted - I'd be happier leaving this to the in-play stats given the market.

17:30 - Real Sociedad v Valladolid - 1.40 Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad - 3rd

  • 5 wins and a 0-0 latest.
  • 2+ goals scored last 2 at home.
  • 1-0 loss last head-to-head.
  • Not played bottom 5 at home yet.
  • 78% scoring rate first half.

Valladolid - 17th

  • Newly promoted.
  • 5 consecutive losses ended with a 1-0 win v Valencia.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • Note they have had 4 0-0's at halftime in the last 5 matches and conceded in every one 2nd half.
  • Failed to score last 5 away.
  • 100% conceding rate away.

Conclusions

  • 3 points gift-wrapped for Sociedad here. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market OR chance a Sociedad lead at halftime - 78% scoring rate first half at home.

20:00 - Barcelona v Sevilla - 1.33 Barcelona

Barcelona - 1st

  • Only 1 defeat.
  • 9 wins and a 1-1 last 10 matches.
  • A run of 3 consecutive 1-0 wins ended with a 1-2 win latest.
  • Scored last 18 and last 8 at home.
  • Led at halftime in 7/9 at home.
  • 0-3 win last head-to-head.
  • 78% scoring rate first half at home.
  • Conceded only 1 goal at home.

Sevilla

  • Been thrown some soft balls at home recently and got 3/3 wins. But the demons returned with a 2-1 loss away to newly promoted Girona. 88th-minute winner.
  • I cannot really venture deeper with Sevilla. Having a season to forget, this one-time bottom 3 side has climbed to 13th, a far cry from their performances last year - they are 20 points behind last year's accumulation at this time.

Conclusions

  • A huge step up for Sevilla in quality of opponent after some really easy plays at home where they reaped the 9 points.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Slight concern with a recent set of 1-0 wins for Barcelona so do check the in-play stats. Can they replicate the earlier 0-3 win at Sevilla? Sevilla really hard to read.

Italian Serie A

11:30 - Spezia v Napoli - 1.33 Napoli

Spezia - 17th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 2 consecutive 2-0 defeats.
  • No win in 6 at home.
  • 1-0 defeat last head-to-head.
  • Not played top 3 at home.
  • 80% scoring rate first half at home; 70% conceding rate same.
  • 11/13 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Napoli - 1st

  • One loss only.
  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • 7 wins and a loss last 8 away.
  • No draw in 16.
  • 2 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4.
  • 1-0 win last head-to-head.
  • 70% scoring rate 2nd half away.

Conclusions

  • Spezia not played top 3 at home but failed to score away.
  • Strong scoring rate Napoli 2nd half IF Spezia are as tight as the 1-0 head-to-head win.
  • Lay any late draw.
  • Expect 2+ goals from a Napoli at their best.

14:00 - Torino v Udinese - 2.30 Torino

  • Leave this to the in-play stats.

17:00 - Fiorentina v Bologna - 1.83 Fiorentina

Fiorentina - 12th

  • Only 1 win in 6; 2 losses and a draw latest.
  • Conceded last 7 and last 6 away.
  • Not beaten a top 13 side home or away.
  • 2-1 loss last head-to-head.
  • 80% conceding rate at home.

Bologna - 9th

  • Win, Draw, Win latest.
  • No draw in 6 away.
  • Conceded last 9 away.
  • v top 13 away. 6 defeats and 1-2 wins away v 7th and 11th.

Conclusions

  • I don't fancy this one. Neither side has a good record v fellow top 13 opponents, albeit Bologna have beaten 7th and 11th away 1-2 but that's it.
  • Both sides do their fair share of conceding too.

19:45 - Inter Milan v AC Milan - 2.00 Inter Milan

  • I don't research derbies - anything could happen on the day.

Dutch Eredivisie

11:15 - Cambuur v Ajax - 1.25 Ajax

Cambuur - 17th

  • Only 3 wins but did beat PSV Eindhoven.
  • 6 consecutive home defeats.
  • No draw in 10 at home.
  • Conceded last 6 at home.
  • 4-0 loss last head-to-head.
  • 70% 2nd half conceding rate at home.

Ajax - 4th

  • 6 consecutive draws ended with a win latest.
  • No defeat in 7 and in 6 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 away.
  • Defeats came v the top 3.

Conclusions

  • A prime opportunity for Ajax to really put that draw sequence to bed with a win today - both teams to score is a problem but 6 consecutive defeats at home for Cambuur is poor stuff.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

13:30 - Feyenoord v PSV Eindhoven - 2.15 Feyenoord

  • Derby type match here so no research. I personally slightly favour a renewed Feyenoord vying for the title, but acknowledge that these matches can be unreadable.

15:45 - Groningen v Twente - 1.65 Twente

Groningen - 18th

  • 7 consecutive defeats, 3 at home.
  • Conceded last 7 and last 7 at home.
  • 3-0 loss last head-to-head.
  • Beat 3rd 4-2 but that was the sole win amongst emphatic defeats v the top 9 home and away.
  • 89% conceding rate 2nd half.
  • 9 goals conceded at home last 15 mins.

Twente - 5th

  • 5 draws in 7 matches spoils an unbeaten run of 10 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away draws.
  • 3/3 clean sheets v bottom 3, 2 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away 1 at fulltime.

Conclusions

  • 18th v 5th should pick itself. And looking at Groningen, yes, they tend to lose, conceding 2+ goals v the top 9 but watch out for some bite. A couple of those matches saw Groningen competitive - 4-2 win v 3rd, 2-3 v 9th at home, 2-3 v 11th at home.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 - Marseille v Nice - 1.70 Marseille

  • This is a Cote D'azur derby (Monaco also involved in these derbies down south) so loathe to research.
  • Marseille are 2nd to PSG and only 5 points shy so must get 3 points to exploit recent PSG defeats post-World Cup.
  • 7 wins and a draw last 8; 3 wins and a draw at home for Marseille - the draw...in the other Cote D'azur derby with Monaco so you have been warned!
  • Nice have really flown under the radar. Only 1 loss since 9th October caught me unawares. New signings clicking?  3 wins in 4 matches, the last 3 scorelines were 0-0 away, 1-0 home, 0-1 away wins.
  • 0-3 Marseille win last head-to-heads; 2nd v 8th, Nice away v top 5 - 2-1 loss, 0-1 win and 2-1 loss - one was very recent v Rennes. Top 4/5 too hot to handle at the moment?
  • Angles? I tend to favour Marseille at home and in an electric atmosphere, the home support may not let them get away with a draw or a loss! As ever, particularly with an improving side, we cannot strongly discount Nice.