DRT Daily Research Bulletin, February 5, 2017

11:00 - Sevilla v Villarreal - 1.67 Sevilla
- 0-0 the last time these 2 met in the Spanish Primera Liga.
- Two top 6 teams.
Sevilla 100% stats
- No draws at home.
- Scored in every home match.
Sevilla other stats
- 7 wins in the last 9 matches.
- Failed to score only once.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches.
- Scored in their last 18 matches.
- Only led in one match at home at halftime.
- 8 wins and a loss at home.
Villareal 100% stats
- Not lost at halftime away.
- Not beaten a top 10 side away (4 matches played).
- No over 4.5 goals matches at home.
- Not conceded first half away.
Villareal other stats
- Only 4 defeats.
- 2 0-0's in their last 3 away matches.
- 5 0-0's at halftime away.
Conclusions
- Lay any late draw and hope Sevilla continue to avoid draws at home.
- Both teams could score today. Note Villareal have not conceded first half yet so if 0-0 at halftime I would still back both teams scoring 2nd half.
- I would lay Villareal if Villareal score first. They have had trouble scoring 2 goals in an away match v the top 10.
11:30 - Roda JC v Ajax - 1.34 Ajax
- 2 consecutive 2-2's in head to heads in the Dutch Eredivisie.
Roda 100% stats
- 2nd bottom plays 2nd top.
- Not beaten any top 13 team.
- Failed to score at home v the top 4.
- No over 4.5 goals at home.
Roda other stats
- Only 2 wins v the same team - Excelsior.
- Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
Ajax 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- All wins v 12th and lower away, scoring 2/3 goals.
Ajax other stats
- Only 2 defeats.
- Failed to score only once.
- 6 0-0's at halftime away.
- 14 of 18 goals scored away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- Ajax should win, scoring 2/3 goals today.
- Roda unlikely to score 2 goals so back Ajax if Roda score first.
- Ajax have a very strong 2nd half scoring bias away so fear not if they have not scored by halftime.
11:30 - AC Milan v Sampdoria - 1.64 AC Milan
- 4 consecutive Milan wins in head to heads.2 consecutive 0-1 away wins.
AC Milan 100% stats
AC Milan other stats
- 2 consecutive 2-1 defeats.
- Failed to score in only 5 matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at home.
- 45.5% 0-0's at halftime at home.
- Failed to score only twice at home.
Sampdoria 100% stats
- No away 0-0.
- Not beaten any top 14 team away.
- Not scored in both halves away.
Sampdoria other stats
- Only 1 win in 7 matches, a 3-2 home v Roma.
- No win in 10 away, conceding in each match.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
- Scored and conceded in 5 of 6 matches away v teams above them in the league.
Conclusions
- Milan like playing Sampdoria in head to heads and will feel confident against a team with no win in 10 away matches.
- I would cautiously lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market (delay entry) given the recent antics v Roma for Samp.
- Both teams could score with Sampdoria not winning 2-1 appeals if 0-0 for a while.
12:00 - Huddersfield v Leeds - 2.32 Huddersfield
- The away team has won the last 4 head to heads in this English Championship clash.
- 2 top 5 teams.
Huddersfield 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- No draw home or away v top 11 teams.
- No over 4.5 goals matches at home.
Huddersfield other stats
- 7 wins in 9 matches.
- Failed to score in only 5 matches.
- Scored in their last 7 at home.
- No 0-0.
- 7 home matches have seen a 2-1 scoreline.
- Scored first in 10 of 14 at home.
Leeds 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- No draw home and away v top 8 teams.
Leeds other stats
- 7 wins in 9 matches.
- Failed to score in only 6 matches.
- Scored and conceded in their last 4 away matches.
- 7 0-0's at halftime away.
Conclusions
- Lay any late 0-0.
- Too tough to call with both sides with 7 wins in their last 9 matches.
- Lay any late draw as these 2 tend to avoid the draw v top 8 teams.
12:30 - St Johnstone v Celtic - 1.48 Celtic
- St Johnstone scored 2 goals in each of the last 2 head to heads at home in the Scottish Premier League.
- They won 1 and lost 1 of those matches.
St Johnstone 100% stats
- No home match with exactly 4 goals.
St Johnstone other stats
- Failed to score in only 5 matches.
- Lost 1-0 to Celtic as recently as 25th January this year.
- Scored in their last 7 at home.
- 13 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- Not beaten a top 3 side home or away.
Celtic 100% stats
- Unbeaten.
- 1-0 and 2-4 wins for Celtic v St Johnstone this season.
Celtic other stats
- 18 consecutive wins.
- Led at halftime in 7/11 away.
Conclusions
- St Johnstone scored 2 goals in 2 consecutive home matches v Celtic, winning only one. I hope St J score again and lead 2-0 so we can lay them.
- Celtic remain unbeaten and have beaten St J twice this season already. Remember, Celtic tend to score so if 0-0 for a while, keep the faith.
- If you want to, back Celtic in the halftime market as they have led in 7/11 away at halftime.
13:30 - Twente v Feyenoord - 1.72 Feyenoord
- Feyenoord have won the last 4 head to heads.
Twente 100% stats
- Scored in all home matches v top 16 teams.
- Not lost to nil at home.
Twente other stats
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Only 5 clean sheets.
Feyenoord 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- Unbeaten home and away v top 17 teams.
Feyenoord other stats
- Failed to score only once and that was the only defeat.
- 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
- 6 consecutive wins.
- 8 goals scored last 15 mins of away matches.
Conclusions
- Both teams could score today. Note Twente beat Ajax 1-0 (2nd in league) so could be up for this one v first in the league.
- Feyenoord have a good scoring record v teams around Twente and could score 2.
- If Feyenoord are losing or drawing coming into 75th min, take a chance and hope for a Feyenoord goal as they tend to score very late away.
- Lay any late 0-0.
13:30 - Man City v Swansea - 1.23 Man City
- City back to their best against West Ham mid week. Swansea will also be happy with their mid week performance.
Man City 100% stats
- Scored in all home matches.
- 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
- Not conceded in both halves at home.
- No 0-0.
Man City other stats
- 4 consecutive home matches scoring 2 goals.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 9 of their 11 home matches.
- 10 of 12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Swansea 100% stats
- No away 0-0.
- 5 goals in total away v 2nd, 3rd, 4th and play 5th today.
- All away wins by 1 goal.
Swansea other stats
- 3 wins in 4 matches now.
- 5-3-3-1-2 goals conceded in the last 5 away.
- Conceded in their last 10 away.
- Conceded 2 goals at least in all matches v top 6 teams.
Conclusions
- No doubting that Swansea are in a mini-revival but it remains that they have conceded 2+ regularly v the top 6 teams and City showed mid week that they have that capability having scored 2 goals at least in their last 4 home matches.
- That is the expectation. City are conceding though so mark that if Swansea score first. Swansea are unlikely to be keeping a clean sheet.
14:00 - Empoli v Torino - 2.22 Torino
- Empoli are unbeaten in 6 matches. A 0-0 last head to head in the Italian Seria A.
Empoli 100% stats
- Not beaten a top 9 team and Torino are 9th.
- Failed to score 2 goals home and away v top 13 teams.
Empoli other stats
- 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches.
- 3 consecutive home wins to nil.
- Failed to score in 12 of 15 matches played home and away v top 13 teams.
Torino 100% stats
- Not beaten a top 16 team away (Empoli are 17th).
- Unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower.
- No 1-0 and 0-1 away.
Torino other stats
- Only 1 win in 8 matches.
- Only 5 clean sheets and failed to score in only 5 matches.
- 11 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- Strictly speaking, Torino have a good record v bottom sides. Empoli have a strong recent clean sheet record which might scupper thingsbut, contrarily, Empoli have failed to score in 12 of 15 matches v top 13 teams!!
- Another match where I cannot make a strong case of either side so will sit this one out!
14:00 - Genoa v Sassuolo - 2.12 Genoa
- 2 Genoa wins ended with a Sassuolo win in the last head to head.
Genoa 100% stats
- Not beaten a bottom 4 side at home, and playing 5th bottom today.
Genoa other stats
- Only 6 clean sheets.
- Only 1 win in 9 matches.
- Only 2 defeats at home.
Sassuolo 100% stats
- No 0-0 away.
- Not beaten any top 14 teams away and play 15th today.
- Scored in all away matches.
Sassuolo other stats
- Only 5 clean sheets.
- Scored and conceded last 10 away.
Conclusions
- Lay any late 0-0.
- On form Genoa should not lose and both teams should score.
14:00 - Atalanta v Cagliari - 1.52 Atalanta
- 3-0 Cagliari win in the last head to head in Italian Seria A.
Atalanta 100% stats
- No home draws.
- No home match with exactly 2 goals.
Atalanta other stats
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- Scored in their last 7 at home.
- 13 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Cagliari 100% stats
- Conceded in all away matches.
- Not scored in both halves away.
Cagliari other stats
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Failed to score in 4 of their last 7 matches.
- Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- Conceded in their last 11 away matches and last 18 matches.
- No win in 7 away matches.
- All defeats bar 2 away.
Conclusions
- Atalanta are highly likely to score today so note that if 0-0 or 0-1.
- Cagliari should not be winning this match.
- Lay any late draw and hope Atalanta avoid the draw again.
14:00 - Chievo v Udinese - 2.42 Chievo
- 11th v 10th in Italian Seria A - a tight match expected?
Chievo 100% stats
- Not scored in both halves at home.
Chievo other stats
- 4 defeats in their last 5 matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at home.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
- All defeats bar 1 came v top 9 teams...playing 10th today.
Udinese 100% stats
- No over 4.5 goals matches away.
Udinese other stats
- Only 5 clean sheets.
- 3 losses in 4 matches.
- Wins away v 6th 8th and 19th but 5 matches without a win away v teams below them in the league.
Conclusions
- Udinese's away form is all over the shop so on that basis they are unreadable.
- The only stat? I don't think there'll be a 0-0, so mark that in-play.
- Research is as much about finding which matches to avoid as much as about finding strong trading candidates!
14:00 - Pescara v Lazio - 1.63 Lazio
Pescara 100% stats
- Not won a home match.
- No over 4.5 goaIs at home.
Pescara other stats
- OnIy 2 cIean sheets.
- Concede in their Iast 8 home matches.
Lazio 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- OnIy pIayed one of the bottom 7 and won 0-1. Have beaten aII of the bottom 7 they have pIayed at home (Pescara are bottom).
ConcIusions
- Pescara done tremendous and gave 110% in taking a 1-0 Iead at home to Fiorentina before eventuaIIy Iosing 1-2. We profited on that mid week. Same again today foIks if Pescara Iead.
- No form reaIIy to gauge Lazio away to the bottom 7 so faith in their 100% home record as suggesting they shouId be too good for Pescara today.
- We shouId not see a 0-0.
14:30 - Augsburg v Werder Bremen - 2.2 Augsburg
Augsburg 100% stats
- Wins come v teams below them in the league.
- Not scored more than 1 goal in a home game.
- Not lead at halftime at home.
- Not scored in both halves at home.
Augsburg other stats
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
- 5 of 6 home goals scored 2nd half.
Werder Bremen 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- No 0-0 at halftime away.
- Scored and conceded in every match v teams 7th and lower (Augsburg are 12th).
- Not scored in both halves away.
Werder Bremen other stats
- Only one clean sheet and failed to score only once.
- Only one 0-0 at halftime.
ConcIusions
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime market as per usuaI. Both teams tend to score too in Werder matches. Werder might have a sneaky chance here today if Augsburg cannot score that 2nd goaI in a home match.
15:00 - Brentford v Brighton - 2.48 Brighton
Brentford 100% stats
Brentford other stats
- Beat Brighton 0-2 earlier this season.
Brighton 100% stats
Brighton other stats
- Only 4 defeats.
- Failed to score in only 5 matches.
- Lost their last 2 away matches.
- 7 0-0's at halftime away.
- The loss at home to Brentford was the only loss home and away v teams 12th and lower.
Conclusions
- There is little to work with here. The fact that Brighton have only 4 defeats, tend to score and only lost to Brentford, of teams 12th and lower, suggests to me that we lay Brentford if Brentford scores first.
15:15 - Sporting Gijon v Alaves - 2.22 Sporting
Sporting Gijon 100% stats
- All wins came at home.
- Scored and conceded in all home matches v teams 3rd and lower.
- 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
Sporting Gijon other stats
- Only 1 win in 17 matches.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Scored and conceded in their last 6 at home.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
Alaves 100% stats
Alaves other stats
- 5 draws in their last 7 matches.
- 0-0, 0-0, 1-0 in the last 3 away matches.
- Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- 6 0-0's at halftime away.
- Unbeaten v 16th and lower.
- 8 of 10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- If Gijon have only 1 win in 17 matches it follows that they are layable if leading today. Alaves have not lost away v teams 16th and lower.
- Not a match which greatly appeals.
15:45 - Utrecht v Heerenveen - 1.99 Utrecht
- Utrecht are unbeaten in the last 3 matches, with a 2-2 last time in the Dutch Eredivisie.
- Two top 7 teams.
Utrecht 100% stats
- No 0-0 at home.
- Not won v top 10 teams.
- No home match with exactly 4 goals.
Utrecht other stats
- Only 1 loss in their last 12 matches.
- Failed to score in only 2 matches.
- 50% of halftime scores 1-0 at home.
- Scored and conceded in 9/10 matches at home v the top 10.
- Conceded 8 goals in the last 15 mins of home matches.
Heerenveen 100% stats
- All over 2.5 goals away.
- Not beaten at top 7 team home or away.
Heerenveen other stats
- Failed to score only once - last match.
- Scored and conceded in their last 5 away matches.
- Both teams scored in 6 of 7 matches away v top 13 teams.
Conclusions
- Lay any late 0-0.
- We should see goals here. Look at the both teams to score stats and the over 2.5 goals bias away for Heerenveen.
- I will back my old buddy 2-2 here given the above.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in the expectation for goals.
16:00 - Leicester v Man Utd - 1.74 Man Utd
Leicester 100% stats
- No opponent has scored an equaliser in a Leicester home match.
Leicester other stats
- Failed to score last 4 matches.
- Conceded 2 goals at least at home v 4 of the 5 teams in the top 8.
- Solid outside of the top 10 at home.
- 11 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Man Utd 100% stats
- No over 4.5 goals matches away.
Man Utd other stats
- All wins away v 14th and lower.
Conclusions
- This is obviously not the Leicester of last year. Having trouble scoring now and tend to be solid at home outside the top 10. Expect struggles today.
- Man Utd are on another draw sequence - this is 3 - the last was 3 and ended with a run of 6 wins. I would lay the late draw today as you can bet United will be going for the win.
- Leicester tend to concede 2 goals v top 8 teams so if united can find their attacking flair, that is a figure to bear in mind.
16:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Darmstadt - 1.62 Frankfurt
Frankfurt 100% stats
- 3rd in the BundesIiga and having a great season.
- Unbeaten at home.
- Yet to meet the bottom 7 at home, Darmstadt are bottom.
- No opponent has Ied at halftime at home.
- Have equaIised in aII home matches they have needed to.
Darmstadt 100% stats
- 100% of points earned at home.
- Not Ied at halftime away.
- Not scored in both haIves away.
Darmstadt other stats
- FaiIed to score in 5 of their Iast 6 matches.
- 15 of 20 away goaIs conceded came 2nd haIf.
ConcIusions
- Frankfurt wiII be eyeing a win today. Something of an unknown as they are yet to meet bottom 7 at home but Darmstadt Iook out of their depth and are highIy IikeIy to Iose even if Ieading.
- Darmstadt have not Ied at halftime so Iet's Iay them if they take an earIy first haIf Iead....in the halftime market.
17:00 - Palermo v Crotone - 2.4 Palermo
- 1-1 in the recent Seria A head to head.
- These are 2 bottom 3 sides.
Palermo 100% stats
- No home wins.
- Not scored 2 goals in a game at home.
- No 0-0.
Palermo other stats
- Only 2 wins.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Conceded last 17 matches.
Crotone 100% stats
- No away win.
- Scored and conceded in all matches away v bottom 7 teams.
- Not scored in both halves away.
- No 0-0.
Crotone other stats
- Only 3 wins.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Conceded 2 goals away to 14th, 15th, 16th ,17th and meeting 18th today.
Conclusions
- Bottom 3 sides are, by their very nature, unreliable for trading purposes.
- Note Crotone tend to score and conceded v bottom teams and that Palermo cannot score than 2nd goal. This suggests we lay Palermo if Palermo score first.
17:30 - Sociedad v Osasuna - 1.35 Sociedad
- 0-2 Sociedad win last head to head in the Spanish Primera Liga.
Sociedad 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- All home defeats v top 3 only.
- Not yet met the bottom 5 at home (Osasuna reside there).
Sociedad other stats
- Only 2 draws.
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- 1/2 home matches 0-0 at halftime.
Osasuna 100% stats
- No away 0-0.
- All defeats v top 6 teams home and away.
- 100% over 1.5 goals away.
Osasuna other stats
- 3 score draws in their last 4 matches.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Conceded in their last 16 matches.
Conclusions
- On Osasuna's form v top teams home and away, Osasuna should lose today, conceding 2/3 goals at least.
- Expect 2 goals for sure given Osasuna's 100% over 1.5 goals stats.
- This SHOULD be a straightforward match.
19:45 - Juventus v Inter MiIan - 1.62 Juventus
- Inter won the Iast head to head at Inter.
Juventus 100% stats
- No draw.
- 100% home wins.
- Unbeaten at haIftime at home.
- Not conceded 2 goaIs at home.
Juventus other stats
- FaiIed to score onIy once.
- Scored first in 10/11 at home.
- Lead at haIftime in 9/11.
Inter MiIan 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- Conceded 2 goaIs at Ieast in the away matches v top 8 teams.
Inter MiIan other stats
- 7 consecutive wins, 3 consecutive away.
- 5 cIean sheets Iast 7 matches.
- Lost aII 3 matches pIayed away v top 6 teams.
- 9 of 12 goaIs scored away came 2nd haIf.
ConcIusions
- Lay any Iate draw and hope Juventus continue to avoid them. Inter are in exceIIent form but teIIingIy they have conceded 2 goaIs away v top teams and Iost v top 6 teams.
- 1-1 and 2-1 Iooks an interesting correct score given inter are in enough form to score.
- WiII Juventus Iead at haIftime at home as they tend to do? I wouId deIay entry here given the fact inter are in reasonabIe nick recentIy.
19:45 - Celta Vigo v Real Madrid - 1.56 Real Madrid
Celta 100% stats
- No home draw.
- Unbeaten at halftime at home.
- Not conceded in both halves at home.
- No home match with exactly 2 goals.
Celta other stats
- 3 wins in last 4 matches.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- 1/2 home matches 0-0 at halftime.
- 3 goals minimum conceded at home v top 4 teams.
- 14 of 16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Real Madrid 100% stats
- Scored in every match.
- Unbeaten at halftime away.
- Undefeated outside of the top 3.
- 100% over 1.5 goals.
Real Madrid other stats
- Lost their last away match.
- Scored 2+ goals away v 4th and lower.
Conclusions
- Both teams are unbeaten at halftime. Will this lead to 0-0 halftime? If it does, expect 2nd half goals and Real Madrid, on form, could score 2/3 goals today.
- Real Madrid should win today.
20:00 - St Etienne v Lyon - 2.14 Lyon
- 2 top 5 teams in French Iigue 1. This couId be a tight match.
St Etienne 100% stats
- Not beaten a top 7 side yet.
- Not conceded more than 1 goaI a game at home.
- No over 4.5 goaIs matches at home.
- Not scored in both haIves at home or conceded in both haIves at home.
St Etienne other stats
- 6 0-0's at haIftime at home.
- 10 of 12 goaIs scored at home came 2nd haIf.
Lyon 100% stats
- OnIy 1 draw was a 0-0.
- Scored in their Iast 5 away and Iast 12 overaII.
- 7 goaIs scored directIy before haIftime away.
ConcIusions
- Tough to caII. I wouId note St Etienne have a strong 2nd haIf scoring bias so if they have not scored 1st haIf they are highIy IikeIy to 2nd haIf.
- I wouId Iay any Iate score draw and hope Lyon avoid another draw.