is the link for today's 14:00 start webinar. Please register using the link. The curse of the Champions League had me hesitant about a number of teams yesterday. Bayern draw, Roma draw, Valencia lose despite utter dominance, Young Boys 0-0 halftime but came good 2nd half. Barcelona were losing in-running, Real Madrid 83rd minute opening goal.
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
15:00 - Man City v Southampton - 1.12 Man City
- 1.12 mid week and a 2-0 win for Man City in the league cup and they may take that today in a function win pre-Champions League.
- 6 consecutive clean sheets City v a Saints side unable to score away at Bournemouth latest.
- In fact they have failed to score in their last 5 matches.
- I expect a City win, not spectacular as necessary team changes may change the team dynamic. 2-0 starters for me today.
16:00 - Chelsea v C Palace - 1.28 Chelsea
- New manager Chelsea so head to heads irrelevant.
- Chelsea are unbeaten this season.2 consecutive home score draws though v Liverpool and Man Utd.
- Europa League mid week for Chelsea and they make team changes in that competition rather than the Premier League.
- 3-2 win v Arsenal and 0-0 v Fulham shows tighter matches in London derbies.
- 2 goals scored at least in all bar 1 match v 4th and lower for Chelsea.
- 5 goals scored at home last 15 mins of Chelsea matches.
- Only 2 wins for Palace v Fulham and Huddersfield away.
- 2-2 v Arsenal....care of 2 penalties so still shy up front.
- Palace should be conceding 2 goals at least today so note that. Look at Chelsea team news although for me they tend to field a weakened team in the Europa League.
- 2-0, 2-1 appeals to me today if Chelsea have the first team out.
SPANISH LA LIGA
11am - Eibar v Alaves - 2.16 Eibar
- 1-2 Eibar and 0-1 Alaves in the last 2 head to heads.
- 3 wins only for Eibar, 2 came at home. Both teams have scored in 4/5 matches at home.
- Only 1 clean sheet Eibar.
- Only 1 of the top 11 played v Eibar, a 1-3 loss to 3rd. Play 2nd today so a gap in form.
- Alaves 2nd eh! The new Real Madrid? 6 wins in 8 matches for Alaves.
- 3 wins in 4 matches away for Alaves who have scored in their last 8 matches.
- On form, Alaves should not lose but the market is somehow with Eibar.
15:15 - Villareal v Levante - 1.64 Villareal
- 1-0 Levante and 2-1 Villareal in the last 2 head to heads.
- Villareal have Europa League football this week.
- 0-1 win, draw, loss for Villareal pre-Europa League.
- Only 2 wins away for Villareal came away from home. No win in 4 matches.
- 3 losses in 4 for Villareal.
- Villareal are yet to win at home matches.
- Only 4 over 2.5 goals matches for Villareal.
- 4 0-0's at halftime at home for Villareal.
- Not beaten top 14 teams yet, Levante are 7th.
- Villareal have failed to score that 2nd goal at home so far.
- 4 consecutive wins for Levante scoring 2 goals in 3 of the 4 wins.
- Levante have failed to score only once.
- This Villareal seem to be in a false position. A poor season. I think they are vulnerable and could certainly lay them if they scored first today. Levante are scoring regularly.
- Note the 0-0's at halftime in Villareal home matches but expect a goal at least 2nd half.
17:30 - Sociedad v Sevilla - 2.58 Sevilla
- Sociedad won the last home head to head.
- Sevilla are involved in the Europa League.
- 0-1 win, 0-0, 0-2 loss, 1-3 win 4-2 loss for Sevilla pre-Europa League. Sevilla do take this competition seriously.
- First thing to note. The market cannot split these teams.
- Only 3 wins came away from home.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Loss, Draw, Loss, Draw at home.
- Only met one of the top 10 at home so gap in form.
- 5 wins in 6 matches sees Sevilla recover from a season start of only 1 win in 4 matches.
- Only 2 clean sheets though require 2 goals for a win?
- Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 matches.
- A messy match to read with the gaps in form a concern, as is Sevilla's form pre-Europa League which we know they take seriously.
- If Sevilla are up for this match and do not make sweeping changes I would quietly fancy them as the form team at the moment. If they score 2 goals that should be enough. But we simply do not know how Sociedad consistently play v the top 10.
- I would contemplate laying Sociedad if Sociedad score first.
17:30 - Huesca v Getafe - 2.3 Getafe.
- Only 1 win Huesa came first match of the season. 7 losses in 8 matches for Huesca.
- No clean sheet Huesca.
- They failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
- Loss, Win, Draw, Draw, Win away for Getafe is decent nick and on that alone, and being an established La Liga side, I would be with them today.
- They have conceded last 3 matches without losing.
19:45 - Betis v Celta Vigo - 1.87 Betis
- 2-1 Betis and 3-2 Celta Vigo last 2 head to heads.
- 3 consecutive defeats without scoring.
- Ended a run of 6 unbeaten.
- Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches for Betis.
- Only 1 win at home for Betis v top 10. Did not score a 2nd goal.
- All 4 goals at home scored 2nd half.
Celta Vigo (10th)
- Only 1 win in 7 matches came last match.
- Not won last 3 away matches.
- Failed to score only once.
- Scored and conceded last 4 away.
- A hint, on the limited form we have, that Celta Vigo may not lose today. They do tend to score regularly too. If Betis score first, I would lay them. Betis matches are invariably featuring 2 or fewer goals so note that.
ITALIAN SERIA A
11:30 - Lazio v Spal - 1.37 Lazio
- 0-0 and 2-5 Lazio in 2 contrasting matches last season.
- No draw for either side this season.
- 6 wins in 8 matches. Losses only v Roma and Inter Milan. Solid stuff.
- Europa League match for Lazio mid week.
- Win, Loss, Win, pre Europa League for Lazio.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- 3 of 4 defeats have come v the current top 3.
- 100% wins v 11th and lower.
- 5 losses in 6 matches. The win? V Roma of all teams!
- 5 losses and a win v top 10 home and away.
- Lay any late draw or do you see the no-draw sequence ending? I could see a Lazio win on form. Not necessarily inconvenienced pre-Europa League, Lazio are on 6 wins in 8. SPAL's recent win v Roma saw a Roma distracted by the Champions League.
- I am with Lazio and will react if anything else.
14:00 - Chievo v Sassuolo - 2.16 Sassuolo
- No win.
- 0-0-0-1 goals scored at home recently.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Only losses v the current top 4.
- 2 goals at least scored v 11th and lower.
- Failed to score last 2 away.
- From a seasonal form perspective, Sassuolo are doing well v the strugglers, scoring 2+ goals with regularity v 11th and lower.
- That secures it for me. Chievo may have to wait for the win, particularly scoring 0-0-0-1 in recent home matches.
14:00 - Parma v Frosinone - 1.98 Parma
- Both newly promoted I believe and Parma clearly having the better of it. 4 wins in 7 matches. Parma's last 4 losses were against solid teams such as Napoli, Juventus, Lazio and Atalanta.
- 2 wins in 3 home matches for Parma.
- 4 0-0's at halftime for Parma, none at fulltime.
- 2 wins and a draw for Parma at home v 12th and lower augurs well v 19th today.
- With Parma 13th, Frosinone have lost v all top 14 this season.
- A single win for Frosinone came last match away v SPAL 0-3.
- I acknowledge that both teams will eye this as easier opposition. On season long form, though, Parma are the form side and I would look for them not to lose this match. In-play stats will be key, given Frosinone suddenly dug out their sole impressive win, away, 0-3 last match.
14:00 - Sampdoria v Torino - 2.8 Sampdoria
- The market is wholly off-putting so limited research here.
- Only 3 losses Samp v 2 Milan sides and Udinese. Win, Draw, Loss, Win, Draw at home Inconsistent.
- Samp's sole defeat at home was v 3rd 0-1.
- Only 2 losses for Torino came v Roma and Napoli.
- Torino are unbeaten away with 4 draws and a win.
- Big gap in form - Torino not played 4th-13th away.
- 2 sides beaten only, generally speaking, by really solid form sides. Torino remain unbeaten away but are drawing a lot. Lay them if they score first?
- The market is right here. In-play stats may reveal all.
17:00 - Bologna v Atalanta - 1.8 Atalanta
- 2 1-0 Atalanta wins in head to heads.
- Scored 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches at home.
- Conceded 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- 2 consecutive 2-2 draws.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Only 2 wins, at home v 8th and 16th.
- 5 of 7 home goals were scored 2nd half.
- 2 consecutive wins but only 3 wins all season.
- Only 1 away win, a 1-5 v Chievo. Not outstanding form as Chievo are poor.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- Conceded in their last 5 aways.
- 2 of 3 wins cam v the bottom 3.
- 8 of 10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- 2 poor form sides.
- Strong second half scoring stats both sides so take on any second half 0-0.
- Other than that, in-play stats for me.
19:30 - Udinese v AC Milan - 1.91 AC Milan
- 2-1 Milan and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.
- Milan are in the Europa League.
- Only 2 wins all season for Udinese. 4 defeats and a draw last 5 matches.
- 3 consecutive home defeats Udinese.
- 3/3 defeats v top 5 at home and meeting 4th today.
- Milan are unbeaten v 7th and lower home and away.
- Milan scored and conceded in all of those matches.
- I think we may see another both teams to score match from AC Milan with the Milanese not losing.
- A simple enough angle.
14:30 - Mgladbach v Fortuna Dusseldorf - 1.39 Mgladbach
- Last head to head was a friendly.
- The market is right here. Dusseldorf are out of their depth currently.
- 4/4 wins at home for Mgladbach. 2+ goals scored.
- 7-1-3-0 goals conceded away by Dusseldorf.
- Dusseldorf may keep a tight first half. 2 goals conceded first half away recently were penalties. A 0-0 at halftime may not surprise. But fulltime? I'd expect 2+ goals for Mgladbach.
17:00 - Mainz v Werder Bremen - 2.52 Werder
- A market suggesting a tough-to-call match.
- 2-2 and 1-2 Werder in the last 2 head to heads.
- No win in 6 now for Mainz. 0-0-1 goals scored recently at home.
- Mainz failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
- All 4 scored goals at home came 2nd half.
Werder Bremen (6th)
- Only 2 defeats.
- 4 wins in 6 matches.
- Werder have scored 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Scored in every match.
- On season-long form, I am with Werder but acknowledge that the odds suggest this match is wide open.
- Scoring 2 regularly (even in a spanking by Leverkusen latest) suggests we'll see 1/2 goals from Werder today.
- It may be 0-0 at halftime and if so, I'd expect 2 goals at least 2nd half.
11:15 - Heerenveen v Emmen - 1.61 Heerenveen
- Newly promoted Emmen are struggling.
- 2 wins in 3 for Heerenveen 2 of only 3 wins all season.
- They failed to score only against Ajax.
- Heerenveen yet to have a 0-0 at halftime.
- 3 defeats for Heerenveen came only v the top 4 and they play 16th today.
- Gap in form. Not played 12th and lower at home.
- Only 2 wins.
- 3 losses last 4 away.
- No clean sheets.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime and none away.
- Beat 8th and 11th 1-2 away and play 9th today.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- You might want to back 1-2 in case Emmen surprise again (as insurance)! But with 3 losses in 4 away, and with Heerenveen winning 2 of their last 3, Emmen are going off the boil.
- No clean sheets for Emmen so lay them if they score first.
13:30 - Fortuna Sittard v PEC Zwolle - 2.6 Zwolle
- Both teams have scored in all bar one of Sittard's matches.
- Only 2 wins required them to score 3 goals . only 1 defeat v 8th and lower.
- 6 of 9 goals scored and 7 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- 3 wins only, 2 came away.
- All defeats have come v the top 9 this season.
- Both teams could score today but it is difficult to pick a winner. PEC's defeats v top 9 exclusively but Fortuna only 1 defeat v 8th and lower.
13:30 - Utrecht v ADO - 1.57 Utrecht
- 0-3 Utrecht and 3-3 last 2 head to heads.
- 3 consecutive wins.
- 2 consecutive home wins.
- Both teams have scored in the last 4 home.
- No 0-0 at halftime at home.
- 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 1st half.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Only 2 defeats in 8 came v PSV and VVV.
- The only matches they failed to score in.
- No 0-0 at halftime away.
- 4-1-2-1-2 conceded and 2-1-0-1-4 scored v teams above them in the league away.
- A hint that Utrecht may outscore ADO. ADO conceded 2+ goals regularly v teams above them.
- Both teams to score pattern Utrecht without Utrecht losing.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
15:45 - Feyenoord v VVV - 1.27 Feyenoord
- 1-1 and 1-0 VVV last 2 head to heads.
- Only 2 losses came 1st and last matches.
- 5/5 home wins.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- 9 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- No win 3 away.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
- 2 of 3 defeats v top 2, playing 3rd today.
- Head to heads suggest laying Feyenoord if they lead. But this season suggests Feyenoord are solid at home and should record the win.
- Note their strong 2nd half scoring if a tight first half BUT statistically we lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.