Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7836938846339403266
is the link for today's 14:00 start webinar. Please register using the link. The curse of the Champions League had me hesitant about a number of teams yesterday. Bayern draw, Roma draw, Valencia lose despite utter dominance, Young Boys 0-0 halftime but came good 2nd half. Barcelona were losing in-running, Real Madrid 83rd minute opening goal.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

15:00 - Man City v Southampton - 1.12 Man City

  • 1.12 mid week and a 2-0 win for Man City in the league cup and they may take that today in a function win pre-Champions League.
  • 6 consecutive clean sheets City v a Saints side unable to score away at Bournemouth latest.
  • In fact they have failed to score in their last 5 matches.
  • I expect a City win, not spectacular as necessary team changes may change the team dynamic. 2-0 starters for me today.

16:00 - Chelsea v C Palace - 1.28 Chelsea

  • New manager Chelsea so head to heads irrelevant.
  • Chelsea are unbeaten this season.2 consecutive home score draws though v Liverpool and Man Utd.
  • Europa League mid week for Chelsea and they make team changes in that competition rather than the Premier League.
  • 3-2 win v Arsenal and 0-0 v Fulham shows tighter matches in London derbies.
  • 2 goals scored at least in all bar 1 match v 4th and lower for Chelsea.
  • 5 goals scored at home last 15 mins of Chelsea matches.
  • Only 2 wins for Palace v Fulham and Huddersfield away.
  • 2-2 v Arsenal....care of 2 penalties so still shy up front.
  • Palace should be conceding 2 goals at least today so note that. Look at Chelsea team news although for me they tend to field a weakened team in the Europa League.
  • 2-0, 2-1 appeals to me today if Chelsea have the first team out.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11am - Eibar v Alaves - 2.16 Eibar

  • 1-2 Eibar and 0-1 Alaves in the last 2 head to heads.
  • 3 wins only for Eibar, 2 came at home. Both teams have scored in 4/5 matches at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet Eibar.
  • Only 1 of the top 11 played v Eibar, a 1-3 loss to 3rd. Play 2nd today so a gap in form.
  • Alaves 2nd eh! The new Real Madrid? 6 wins in 8 matches for Alaves.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches away for Alaves who have scored in their last 8 matches.
  • On form, Alaves should not lose but the market is somehow with Eibar.

15:15 - Villareal v Levante - 1.64 Villareal

  • 1-0 Levante and 2-1 Villareal in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Villareal have Europa League football this week.
  • 0-1 win, draw, loss for Villareal pre-Europa League.
  • Only 2 wins away for Villareal came away from home. No win in 4 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 for Villareal.
  • Villareal are yet to win at home matches.
  • Only 4 over 2.5 goals matches for Villareal.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home for Villareal.
  • Not beaten top 14 teams yet, Levante are 7th.
  • Villareal have failed to score that 2nd goal at home so far.
  • 4 consecutive wins for Levante scoring 2 goals in 3 of the 4 wins.
  • Levante have failed to score only once.
  • This Villareal seem to be in a false position. A poor season. I think they are vulnerable and could certainly lay them if they scored first today. Levante are scoring regularly.
  • Note the 0-0's at halftime in Villareal home matches but expect a goal at least 2nd half.

17:30 - Sociedad v Sevilla - 2.58 Sevilla

  • Sociedad won the last home head to head.
  • Sevilla are involved in the Europa League.
  • 0-1 win, 0-0, 0-2 loss, 1-3 win 4-2 loss for Sevilla pre-Europa League. Sevilla do take this competition seriously.
  • First thing to note. The market cannot split these teams.

Sociedad (12th)

  • Only 3 wins came away from home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Loss, Draw, Loss, Draw at home.
  • Only met one of the top 10 at home so gap in form.

Sevilla (3rd)

  • 5 wins in 6 matches sees Sevilla recover from a season start of only 1 win in 4 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets though require 2 goals for a win?
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 matches.

Conclusions

  • A messy match to read with the gaps in form a concern, as is Sevilla's form pre-Europa League which we know they take seriously.
  • If Sevilla are up for this match and do not make sweeping changes I would quietly fancy them as the form team at the moment. If they score 2 goals that should be enough. But we simply do not know how Sociedad consistently play v the top 10.
  • I would contemplate laying Sociedad if Sociedad score first.

17:30 - Huesca v Getafe - 2.3 Getafe.

  • Only 1 win Huesa came first match of the season. 7 losses in 8 matches for Huesca.
  • No clean sheet Huesca.
  • They failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Draw, Draw, Win away for Getafe is decent nick and on that alone, and being an established La Liga side, I would be with them today.
  • They have conceded last 3 matches without losing.

19:45 - Betis v Celta Vigo - 1.87 Betis

  • 2-1 Betis and 3-2 Celta Vigo last 2 head to heads.

Betis (13th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats without scoring.
  • Ended a run of 6 unbeaten.
  • Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches for Betis.
  • Only 1 win at home for Betis v top 10. Did not score a 2nd goal.
  • All 4 goals at home scored 2nd half.

Celta Vigo (10th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches came last match.
  • Not won last 3 away matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.

Conclusions

  • A hint, on the limited form we have, that Celta Vigo may not lose today. They do tend to score regularly too. If Betis score first, I would lay them. Betis matches are invariably featuring 2 or fewer goals so note that.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Lazio v Spal - 1.37 Lazio

  • 0-0 and 2-5 Lazio in 2 contrasting matches last season.
  • No draw for either side this season.

Lazio (5th)

  • 6 wins in 8 matches. Losses only v Roma and Inter Milan. Solid stuff.
  • Europa League match for Lazio mid week.
  • Win, Loss, Win, pre Europa League for Lazio.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3 of 4 defeats have come v the current top 3.
  • 100% wins v 11th and lower.

SPAL (15th)

  • 5 losses in 6 matches. The win? V Roma of all teams!
  • 5 losses and a win v top 10 home and away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw or do you see the no-draw sequence ending? I could see a Lazio win on form. Not necessarily inconvenienced pre-Europa League, Lazio are on 6 wins in 8. SPAL's recent win v Roma saw a Roma distracted by the Champions League.
  • I am with Lazio and will react if anything else.

14:00 - Chievo v Sassuolo - 2.16 Sassuolo

  • 0-0 and 1-1 last season.

Chievo (20th)

  • No win.
  • 0-0-0-1 goals scored at home recently.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.

Sassuolo (9th)

  • Only losses v the current top 4.
  • 2 goals at least scored v 11th and lower.
  • Failed to score last 2 away.

Conclusions

  • From a seasonal form perspective, Sassuolo are doing well v the strugglers, scoring 2+ goals with regularity v 11th and lower.
  • That secures it for me. Chievo may have to wait for the win, particularly scoring 0-0-0-1 in recent home matches.

14:00 - Parma v Frosinone - 1.98 Parma

  • Both newly promoted I believe and Parma clearly having the better of it. 4 wins in 7 matches. Parma's last 4 losses were against solid teams such as Napoli, Juventus, Lazio and Atalanta.
  • 2 wins in 3 home matches for Parma.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime for Parma, none at fulltime.
  • 2 wins and a draw for Parma at home v 12th and lower augurs well v 19th today.
  • With Parma 13th, Frosinone have lost v all top 14 this season.
  • A single win for Frosinone came last match away v SPAL 0-3.
  • I acknowledge that both teams will eye this as easier opposition. On season long form, though, Parma are the form side and I would look for them not to lose this match. In-play stats will be key, given Frosinone suddenly dug out their sole impressive win, away, 0-3 last match.

14:00 - Sampdoria v Torino - 2.8 Sampdoria

  • The market is wholly off-putting so limited research here.
  • Only 3 losses Samp v 2 Milan sides and Udinese. Win, Draw, Loss, Win, Draw at home Inconsistent.
  • Samp's sole defeat at home was v 3rd 0-1.
  • Only 2 losses for Torino came v Roma and Napoli.
  • Torino are unbeaten away with 4 draws and a win.
  • Big gap in form - Torino not played 4th-13th away.
  • 2 sides beaten only, generally speaking, by really solid form sides. Torino remain unbeaten away but are drawing a lot. Lay them if they score first?
  • The market is right here. In-play stats may reveal all.

17:00 - Bologna v Atalanta - 1.8 Atalanta

  • 2 1-0 Atalanta wins in head to heads.

Bologna (17th)

  • Scored 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches at home.
  • Conceded 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 2-2 draws.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 2 wins, at home v 8th and 16th.
  • 5 of 7 home goals were scored 2nd half.

Atalanta (14th)

  • 2 consecutive wins but only 3 wins all season.
  • Only 1 away win, a 1-5 v Chievo. Not outstanding form as Chievo are poor.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 5 aways.
  • 2 of 3 wins cam v the bottom 3.
  • 8 of 10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 2 poor form sides.
  • Strong second half scoring stats both sides so take on any second half 0-0.
  • Other than that, in-play stats for me.

19:30 - Udinese v AC Milan - 1.91 AC Milan

  • 2-1 Milan and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.
  • Milan are in the Europa League.
  • Only 2 wins all season for Udinese. 4 defeats and a draw last 5 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home defeats Udinese.
  • 3/3 defeats v top 5 at home and meeting 4th today.
  • Milan are unbeaten v 7th and lower home and away.
  • Milan scored and conceded in all of those matches.
  • I think we may see another both teams to score match from AC Milan with the Milanese not losing.
  • A simple enough angle.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Mgladbach v Fortuna Dusseldorf - 1.39 Mgladbach

  • Last head to head was a friendly.
  • The market is right here. Dusseldorf are out of their depth currently.
  • 4/4 wins at home for Mgladbach. 2+ goals scored.
  • 7-1-3-0 goals conceded away by Dusseldorf.
  • Dusseldorf may keep a tight first half. 2 goals conceded first half away recently were penalties. A 0-0 at halftime may not surprise. But fulltime? I'd expect 2+ goals for Mgladbach.

17:00 - Mainz v Werder Bremen - 2.52 Werder

  • A market suggesting a tough-to-call match.
  • 2-2 and 1-2 Werder in the last 2 head to heads.

Mainz (15th)

  • No win in 6 now for Mainz. 0-0-1 goals scored recently at home.
  • Mainz failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All 4 scored goals at home came 2nd half.

Werder Bremen (6th)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 4 wins in 6 matches.
  • Werder have scored 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Scored in every match.

Conclusions

  • On season-long form, I am with Werder but acknowledge that the odds suggest this match is wide open.
  • Scoring 2 regularly (even in a spanking by Leverkusen latest) suggests we'll see 1/2 goals from Werder today.
  • It may be 0-0 at halftime and if so, I'd expect 2 goals at least 2nd half.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 - Heerenveen v Emmen - 1.61 Heerenveen

  • Newly promoted Emmen are struggling.

Heerenveen (9th)

  • 2 wins in 3 for Heerenveen 2 of only 3 wins all season.
  • They failed to score only against Ajax.
  • Heerenveen yet to have a 0-0 at halftime.
  • 3 defeats for Heerenveen came only v the top 4 and they play 16th today.
  • Gap in form. Not played 12th and lower at home.

Emmen (16th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 3 losses last 4 away.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime and none away.
  • Beat 8th and 11th 1-2 away and play 9th today.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • You might want to back 1-2 in case Emmen surprise again (as insurance)! But with 3 losses in 4 away, and with Heerenveen winning 2 of their last 3, Emmen are going off the boil.
  • No clean sheets for Emmen so lay them if they score first.

13:30 - Fortuna Sittard v PEC Zwolle - 2.6 Zwolle

Fortuna (13th)

  • Both teams have scored in all bar one of Sittard's matches.
  • Only 2 wins required them to score 3 goals . only 1 defeat v 8th and lower.
  • 6 of 9 goals scored and 7 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

PEC (12th)

  • 3 wins only, 2 came away.
  • All defeats have come v the top 9 this season.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today but it is difficult to pick a winner. PEC's defeats v top 9 exclusively but Fortuna only 1 defeat v 8th and lower.

13:30 - Utrecht v ADO - 1.57 Utrecht

  • 0-3 Utrecht and 3-3 last 2 head to heads.

Utrecht (8th)

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Both teams have scored in the last 4 home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 1st half.

ADO (11th)

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 2 defeats in 8 came v PSV and VVV.
  • The only matches they failed to score in.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 4-1-2-1-2 conceded and 2-1-0-1-4 scored v teams above them in the league away.

Conclusions

  • A hint that Utrecht may outscore ADO. ADO conceded 2+ goals regularly v teams above them.
  • Both teams to score pattern Utrecht without Utrecht losing.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

15:45 - Feyenoord v VVV - 1.27 Feyenoord

  • 1-1 and 1-0 VVV last 2 head to heads.

Feyenoord (3rd)

  • Only 2 losses came 1st and last matches.
  • 5/5 home wins.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 9 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

VVV (7th)

  • No win 3 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 2 of 3 defeats v top 2, playing 3rd today.

Conclusions

  • Head to heads suggest laying Feyenoord if they lead. But this season suggests Feyenoord are solid at home and should record the win.
  • Note their strong 2nd half scoring if a tight first half BUT statistically we lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.