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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 2, 2018

See you at 14:00 for a live chat for Italian Seria A.

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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

13:30 - Brighton v Arsenal - 1.88 Arsenal

Arsenal won 2-0 earlier this season

Brighton (12th)

only 1 loss in 6 at home
2 consecutive home wins
conceded in their last 7
only 2 0-0's at home
6 0-0's at halftime at home ( 42.9%)
all defeats v top 6 scoring just the one goal
4 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half

Arsenal (6th)

3 consecutive away defeats
failed to score in only 5 matches
conceded in their last 9 and last 5 away
7 0-0's at halftime away
only 3 away wins v 7th. 9th and 17th
16 of 22 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
11 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half

Conclusions

if 0-0 at halftime, lay it. Arsenal score and concede a lot 2nd half away.
Brighton really should struggle today against an Arsenal struggling themselves away.
Brighton do not tend to score v top 6.
3 consecutive away defeats Arsenal though.

16:00 - Manchester City v Chelsea - 1.64 Man City

another tasty affair and not researchable. We have to side with the home side not to lose today, they are simply so good....but Manchester City play Basel mid week in the Champions league, BUT....they hold such a commanding lead.
a match for the inplay stats. Better yet, to watch with my personal bias towards City. Chelsea I still see as week going forward.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - Caen v Strasbourg - 2.16 Caen

2 consecutive 0-0's in head to heads

Caen (13th)

conceded 2+ goals last 3 at home
6 0-0's at halftime at home
bitty home form. WLWLWLW v 11th and lower ( W= Win, L-Loss)

Conclusions

and there I apply the brakes. Bitty form for both sides. Little to get into and I would prefer to move on and focus on readable matches.

16:00 - Montpellier v Lyon - 2.52 Lyon

0-0 in the last Ligue 1 head to head

Montpellier (5th)

only 3 defeats since 16th September 2017
scored and conceded last 3 at home
only 2 0-0's at home
7 0-0's at halftime at home is 50% of matches
0-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 0-1 v top 7 at home

Lyon (4th)

no win in 5 matches, 3 losses and 2 draws
failed to score in only 4 matches
3-1, 3-2 and 2-2 last 3 away
scored in their last 11 away
only 1 0-0 away
2-0 , 3-2 v top 2 away, 0-0 v 6th away
scored first in 10/14 away

Conclusions

Do not be surprised with a 0-0 at halftime, 50% for Montpellier at home.
the market tells us this is yet another toughie. I have researched it as I have the time to, but it looks well-matched.

20:00 - Marseille v Nantes - 1.51 Marseille

3-2 Nantes and 0-1 Marseille last 2 head to heads

Marseille (3rd)

only 4 defeats
failed to score only 2 matches
no defeat 10 at home scoring in 13 at home
no 0-0
only 2 0-0's at halftime at home
only played 2 of top 6 at home , 2 2-2's v top 2

Nantes (6th)

only 1 win in 8 matches
scored in their last 8 away
no away 0-0
6 0-0's at halftime away
failed to score that 2nd goal away v top 9

Conclusions

muddied by the fact Marseille have only played 2 of the top 6 at home , the top 2.
On form, Nantes are yet to score a 2nd goal v top 9 away so lay them if they score first.
lay any late 0-0

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Koln v Stuttgart - 2.44 Koln

2-1 Stuttgart last head to head
10 games in Koln's new manager and 4 games in Stuttgart's new manager

Koln (18th)

superb form in 10 matches under new manager sees 4 wins 2 1-1 draws, losses v Freiburg ( Koln led 3-2 last minute of match!!), Bayern, Dortmund and Frankfurt
At home, Loss, Win, Win, Draw, Loss , Draw
scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7
scored and conceded in 4 of 5 at home under new manager

Stuttgart (12th)

3 consecutive 1-0 wins
no 0-0 away
only 1 away win was one of those 1-0 wins
scored 2 goals only once away

Conclusions

Stuttgart are clicking in their 4 matches under new management. 3 consecutive 1-0 wins, and their only away win.
This makes this Stuttgart side unreadable v a Koln superb at home under new manager.
I will monitor via inplay stats to see if Stuttgart are on track for another clean sheet. Their new manager has certainly steadied the ship.

17:00 - Freiburg v Bayern - 1.32 Bayern

5-4 goals scored by Bayern last 2 head to heads
14th March for the Champions League for Bayern so no excuses and a need to bounce back after a 0-0 last match

Freiburg (13th)

only 1 loss in 12 matches
no defeat in 6 at home
9 0-0's at halftime at home. Unbeaten at halftime at home
0-0 v 2nd, 0-1 v 3rd, 0-0 v 4th, 0-0 v 5th at home
6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half

Bayern Munich (1st)

10 consecutive wins ended with a shock 0-0 last match.
failed to score in 2 matches
7 wins in 8 away matches
5 consecutive away wins
no defeat in 11 matches
scored in their last 10 away
9 wins and a 2-2 v 12th and lower

Conclusions

no recent Champions League match, and no excuses. Or is there? 3 0-0's v top 5 at home for Freiburg. I would though take on a 0-0 given the fact I do not expect Bayern to show 2 consecutive 0-0's
I would not be shocked with a 0-0 at halftime.
Freiburg are an interesting side . They were battered at Bayern.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Genoa v Cagliari - 1.86 genoa

4-1 Cagliari and 2-3 Genoa last 2 head to heads

Genoa (13th)

only 3 losses in 10 matches , 2 were 1-0
3 wins in 4 at home
no draw in 7 and in 5 at home
no 0-0 at home
6 0-0's at halftime at home
all defeats bar one came v teams above them in the league

Cagliari (14th)

only 2 wins in 13 matches
only 5 clean sheets
only 1 0-0 away
only 1 loss v 11th and lower

Conclusions

Genoa are tough to beat and score against. If clicking today, they will likely keep a clean sheet and it only remains for them to conjure a goal.
Genoa's win over Inter Milan last home match was the perfect defensive plan executed.
Do not be surprised with a period of 0-0. You may want to back 0-0 pre match in the home Genoa's defence turns up.

14:00 - Torino v Crotone - 1.44 Torino

1-1 and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.

Torino (9th)

2 consecutive defeats. Loss v Verona saw Torino dominate the match.
only 1 0-0 at home
2 0-0's at halftime at home
losses at home v top 5 only.
scored 2+ goals in 6/8 matches v 11th and lower at home
10 goals scored at home in the last 15 mins of first half.

Crotone (17th)

only 2 wins in 14 matches
scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
only 4 clean sheets
no 0-0 away
6 losses and a win away v top 8 teams.
9 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.
opponents scored first in 11/13 away

Conclusions

Torino were poor last match and failed to score their expected 2 goals v Verona. Again today, they are expected to score 2 goals . They scored 2+ goals in 6/8 matches v 11th and lower at home.
as Torino equalised after Verona scored first last match, I would lay Crotone if Crotone scored first. They have scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.

14:00 - Udinese v Fiorentina - 2.38 Fiorentina

3-0 and 2-1 Fiorentina last 2 head to heads

Udinese ( 11th)

14 games in for new manager
new manager began with 5 wins in his first 6 but fast forward now and it is 4 defeats, a draw and a 0-1 last 6 matches
Only 2 home losses under new manager were v Roma and Napoli. No disgrace there.

Fiorentina (10th)

only 2 wins in 8 matches
beat 12th, 14th, 19th and 20th away

Conclusions

I have to research as it is Italian Seria A but the market is right again. Tough to call. Udinese under new manager have only lost to Napoli and Roma at home. With that kind of form, Udinese may come out of this with a draw worst case?

14:00 - Benevento v Verona - 2.1 Benevento

1-0 Verona last head to head

Benevento (20th)

love cheering them on at home, ever since their goalie scored to make it 2-2 v Milan!!
3 wins in 4 and a realistic chance for 3 points today
beat 15th and 17th at home recently.
11 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half

Verona (19th)

wins v Torino and Fiorentina recently do impress.but that is in the midst of 7 defeats
0-2, 0-0, 2-2 v 16th and lower away
17 of 26 goals conceded away came 2nd half

Conclusions

Not getting carried away with this. Benevento are relegated but at home tend to spark v fellow strugglers. A match well worth monitoring . I expect both teams to score in another competitive affair
2-2 appeals pre match as a trading angle.

14:00 - Atalanta v Sampdoria - 1.79 Atalanta

the home team won the head to heads in 2017

Atalanta (8th)

only 2 defeats in 12
1-1-0-1-1-1 conceded recently
only failed to score in 3 matches
no 0-0
not beaten top 5 at home
69% of goals conceded at home came 1st half

Sampdoria (6th)

only 1 loss in 7 last away v Milan
1-1-0-1-0-1-1 conceded recently. A tightening of the ship
67% of goals scored came 1st half

Conclusions

strong pattern for Samp scoring first half.
A very tight defensive display from both sides suggests a tight match today. 1-1 possible?

14:00 - Chievo v Sassuolo - 2.42 Chievo

1-3 Chievo and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.

Chievo (15th)

8 losses in 10 matches
3 1-0 losses in their last 4 matches
only 4 clean sheets
failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches
conceded in their last 10 and last 5 at home
6 0-0's at halftime at home
wins at home v 10th, 14th, 18th and 19th - both teams scored in those wins
scored and conceded at home v 7th and lower

Sassuolo (16th)

5 losses in 7 matches.
no win in 8 matches
3 consecutive away defeats
failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches
wins away v 14th, 18th and 20th were 0-1, 0-1 and 1-2

Conclusions

oh dear. Both sides have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches - how can we trust them tonight?
the teams tend to perform well v 14th and lower, which further muddies the waters.
Not a match I can get a strong angle on.

19:45 - Milan v Inter Milan - 2.46 Milan

local derby so not going to dwell on this match suffice to say that I think Milan are the team with the momentum here
6 wins in 7 for Milan.Only 2 wins in 11 Inter Milan came at home, one v red carded Bologna and the other v bottom side Benevento.
I must be with Milan today , the home side. But do remember that derbies can be a law unto themselves. Red cards are possible!

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:30 - Pec Zwolle v VVV - 2 Zwolle

1-1 in the last head to head

Pec Zwolle (6th)

6 losses and 2 wins in 8 matches
no draw in 9 matches
no 0-0 at home
only 2 0-0's at halftime at home
all home wins v 8th and lower
only 1 loss home and away v 9th and lower

VVV (11th)

3 consecutive draws
only 1 0-0 away
5 0-0's at halftime away
all draws v top 9 away
67% of goals scored away came 2nd half

Conclusions

If VVV continue to draw v top 9, then this suggests laying VVV if VVV scores first. No draw in 9 for Zwolle. Does this suggest a 2-1 win ( if a score draw turns into a win)?

13:30 - Sparta v ADO Den Haag - 2.26 Sparta

3 consecutive 1-0 ADO wins in head to heads.

Sparta (18th)

only 3 wins
5 defeats and a win last 6 at home
only 3 clean sheets
no win v top 12.
8 of 10 goals scored at home came 1st half

ADO

only 2 losses in 11 matches came away v PSV and Feyenoord.
2 losses, 3 draws last 5 away, 2 consecutive away 0-0's
6/6 wins v 14th and lower
unbeaten away v 11th and lower

Conclusions

I must favour ADO today . With only 3 wins, winning is very rare indeed for bottom side Sparta.
I would look to take on a very late 0-0. ADO's away sequence of 0-0's should end

13:30 - Vitesse v Ajax - 1.54 Ajax

3 1-0 Ajax wins ended with a 1-2 Vitesse win in head to heads

Vitesse (7th)

only 1 win in 4
failed to score in only 3 matches
scored in their last 6 at home
only 1 0-0 at home
4 0-0's at halftime at home
lost at home v 1st and 3rd
scored and conceded all v top 4

Ajax (2nd)

failed to score last match. Shock perforemance
no defeat in 14 and in 11 away
6 0-0's at halftime away
failed to score only once away
only 1 away loss
9 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half

Conclusions

Ajax cannot afford to not score today given Vitesse tend to score and concede albeit without winning, v top 4
No surprise a 0-0 at halftime but I'd expect goals today and both teams potential to score.
On form Vitesse should not win

15:45 - Twente v Groningen - 2.04 Twente

3-5 Groningen and 1-0 Groningen in the last 2 head to heads

Twente (16th)

only 4 wins
5 losses in 6 matches
only 3 clean sheets
no win in 8 at home
no 0-0 at home
only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
v 12th and lower at home, wins v 12th and 17th and draw v 18th.
100% over 1.5 goals at home

Groningen (13th)

only 1 win in 11 matches
3 consecutive draws
only 4 clean sheets
no win in 7 and in 6 away
only 2 0-0's at halftime away
only 1 win away from home

Conclusions

expect 2 goals total at least. Both sides have 100% over 1.5 goals.
Groningen tend to see both teams score away
lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the season long stats but note Twente are not in the best of form.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Levante v Espanyol - 2.62 Espanyol

another unappealing match on the face of it, but I will research it
0-0 last league head to head

Levante (17th)

no win in 14 and in 9 at home
conceded in their last 9 matches
only 1 0-0 at home
only 2 wins at home v 6th and 15th
8 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half
opponents have scored first in 10/13 at home

Espanyol (13th)

4 draws and a win last 5 matches
only 2 0-0's away
only 1 away win

Conclusions

No win in 14 plays only 1 away win . Unappealing pair, these 2.

15:15 - Barcelona v Atl Madrid - 1.68 Barcelona

1-2 Barca, 1-1, 1-2 Barca , 1-1 last 4 head to heads.
2 consecutive home 1-1's in head to heads
Barcelona meet Chelsea on the 14th March 2018 so they should not be affected today
This is a key match. If Atl Madrid can nick 3 points from Barcelona, the gap at the top becomes only 2 points.

Barcelona (1st)

1-1 draw v Las Palmas adds importance to this match
unbeaten
failed to score in only 1 match
not played the top 4 at home. 1-1 with Madrid earlier this season

Atl Madrid (2nd)

only 1 loss
6 consecutive wins
12 clean sheets in 16 matches
5 0-0's at halftime away ( 38.5% )
not played top 3 away.

Conclusions

no Champions League distractions Barcelona .
This is likely to be a 0-0 for a while. Back 0-0 pre match at its highest point and hope this is as tight as expected.

17:30 - Real Sociedad v Alaves - 1.81 Sociedad

1-0 Alaves and 0-2 Sociedad in the last 2 head to heads

Real Sociedad (15th)

2 consecutive home wins to nil
scored in their last 5 at home
no 0-0 at home
no 0-0 at halftime at home
only 2 defeats at home v 5th and lower came v 11th and 20th
17 first half goals scored at home

Alaves (14th)

4 wins in 5 matches. 2 losses in last 8 v Barcelona and Real Madrid
no draw in 12 away
conceded in their last 8 away
only 2 0-0's at halftime away
only 3 away wins

Conclusions

lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
Good recent form Alaves but they are conceding away
I would lay Alaves if Alaves scores first.

19:45 - Valencia v Betis - 1.51 Valencia

0-0 and 3-6 Valencia in the last 2 head to heads

Valencia (4th)

3 wins and a draw in 4 matches
failed to score in only 4 matches
scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches
conceded in their last 14 matches
only 1 0-0 at home
only 2 0-0's at halftime at home
100% wins at home v 8th and lower
17 of 27 goals scored at home came 1st half

Betis(10th)

5 wins in their last 8 matches
3 wins in 4 matches
4 wins in 5 away
this research done before the Sociedad match on 1st March
no draw in 12
no 0-0
beat Real Madrid and Sevilla away but 5 other defeats away v top 13 teams.
67%of goals scored away came 2nd half

Conclusions

Good recent form for Betis but the market is with Valencia today. Is that because Betis have 5
defeats in 7 matches away v top 13 teams.
lay any late 0-0. Valencia scored and conceded mid week. An unhealthy habit. I would lay Betis if Betis scored first.