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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

13:30 - Brighton v Arsenal - 1.88 Arsenal

  • Arsenal won 2-0 earlier this season.

Brighton (12th)

  • Only 1 loss in 6 at home.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Conceded in their last 7.
  • Only 2 0-0's at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (42.9%).
  • All defeats v top 6 scoring just the one goal.
  • 4 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Arsenal (6th)

  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 9 and last 5 away.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 3 away wins v 7th. 9th and 17th.
  • 16 of 22 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • 11 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If 0-0 at halftime, lay it. Arsenal score and concede a lot 2nd half away.
  • Brighton really should struggle today against an Arsenal struggling themselves away.
  • Brighton do not tend to score v top 6.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats Arsenal though.

16:00 - Manchester City v Chelsea - 1.64 Man City

  • Another tasty affair and not researchable. We have to side with the home side not to lose today, they are simply so good....but Manchester City play Basel mid week in the Champions league, BUT....they hold such a commanding lead.
  • A match for the in-play stats. Better yet, to watch with my personal bias towards City. Chelsea I still see as week going forward.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - Caen v Strasbourg - 2.16 Caen

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's in head to heads.

Caen (13th)

  • Conceded 2+ goals last 3 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Bitty home form. WLWLWLW v 11th and lower (W= Win, L-Loss).

Conclusions

  • And there I apply the brakes. Bitty form for both sides. Little to get into and I would prefer to move on and focus on readable matches.

16:00 - Montpellier v Lyon - 2.52 Lyon

  • 0-0 in the last Ligue 1 head to head.

Montpellier (5th)

  • Only 3 defeats since 16th September 2017.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home is 50% of matches.
  • 0-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 0-1 v top 7 at home.

Lyon (4th)

  • No win in 5 matches, 3 losses and 2 draws.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 3-1, 3-2 and 2-2 last 3 away.
  • Scored in their last 11 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 2-0 , 3-2 v top 2 away, 0-0 v 6th away.
  • Scored first in 10/14 away.

Conclusions

  • Do not be surprised with a 0-0 at halftime, 50% for Montpellier at home.
  • The market tells us this is yet another toughie. I have researched it as I have the time to, but it looks well-matched.

20:00 - Marseille v Nantes - 1.51 Marseille

  • 3-2 Nantes and 0-1 Marseille last 2 head to heads.

Marseille (3rd)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Failed to score only 2 matches.
  • No defeat 10 at home scoring in 13 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only played 2 of top 6 at home, 2 2-2's v top 2.

Nantes (6th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Scored in their last 8 away.
  • No away 0-0.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal away v top 9.

Conclusions

  • Muddied by the fact Marseille have only played 2 of the top 6 at home, the top 2.
  • On form, Nantes are yet to score a 2nd goal v top 9 away so lay them if they score first.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Koln v Stuttgart - 2.44 Koln

  • 2-1 Stuttgart last head to head.
  • 10 games in Koln's new manager and 4 games in Stuttgart's new manager.

Koln (18th)

  • Superb form in 10 matches under new manager sees 4 wins 2 1-1 draws, losses v Freiburg (Koln led 3-2 last minute of match!!), Bayern, Dortmund and Frankfurt.
  • At home, Loss, Win, Win, Draw, Loss, Draw.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of 5 at home under new manager.

Stuttgart (12th)

  • 3 consecutive 1-0 wins.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 away win was one of those 1-0 wins.
  • Scored 2 goals only once away.

Conclusions

  • Stuttgart are clicking in their 4 matches under new management. 3 consecutive 1-0 wins, and their only away win.
  • This makes this Stuttgart side unreadable v a Koln superb at home under new manager.
  • I will monitor via inplay stats to see if Stuttgart are on track for another clean sheet. Their new manager has certainly steadied the ship.

17:00 - Freiburg v Bayern - 1.32 Bayern

  • 5-4 goals scored by Bayern last 2 head to heads.
  • 14th March for the Champions League for Bayern so no excuses and a need to bounce back after a 0-0 last match.

Freiburg (13th)

  • Only 1 loss in 12 matches.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime at home. Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • 0-0 v 2nd, 0-1 v 3rd, 0-0 v 4th, 0-0 v 5th at home.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Bayern Munich (1st)

  • 10 consecutive wins ended with a shock 0-0 last match.
  • Failed to score in 2 matches.
  • 7 wins in 8 away matches.
  • 5 consecutive away wins.
  • No defeat in 11 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 away.
  • 9 wins and a 2-2 v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • No recent Champions League match, and no excuses. Or is there? 3 0-0's v top 5 at home for Freiburg. I would though take on a 0-0 given the fact I do not expect Bayern to show 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • I would not be shocked with a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Freiburg are an interesting side . They were battered at Bayern.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Genoa v Cagliari - 1.86 Genoa

  • 4-1 Cagliari and 2-3 Genoa last 2 head to heads.

Genoa (13th)

  • Only 3 losses in 10 matches, 2 were 1-0.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • No draw in 7 and in 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All defeats bar one came v teams above them in the league.

Cagliari (14th)

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 loss v 11th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Genoa are tough to beat and score against. If clicking today, they will likely keep a clean sheet and it only remains for them to conjure a goal.
  • Genoa's win over Inter Milan last home match was the perfect defensive plan executed.
  • Do not be surprised with a period of 0-0. You may want to back 0-0 pre match in the home Genoa's defence turns up.

14:00 - Torino v Crotone - 1.44 Torino

  • 1-1 and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.

Torino (9th)

  • 2 consecutive defeats. Loss v Verona saw Torino dominate the match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Losses at home v top 5 only.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 6/8 matches v 11th and lower at home.
  • 10 goals scored at home in the last 15 mins of first half.

Crotone (17th)

  • Only 2 wins in 14 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 6 losses and a win away v top 8 teams.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored away  came 2nd half.
  • Opponents scored first in 11/13 away.

Conclusions

  • Torino were poor last match and failed to score their expected 2 goals v Verona. Again today, they are expected to score 2 goals . They scored 2+ goals in 6/8 matches v 11th and lower at home.
  • As Torino equalised after Verona scored first last match, I would lay Crotone if Crotone scored first. They have scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.

14:00 - Udinese v Fiorentina - 2.38 Fiorentina

  • 3-0 and 2-1 Fiorentina last 2 head to heads.

Udinese (11th)

  • 14 games in for new manager.
  • New manager began with 5 wins in his first 6 but fast forward now and it is 4 defeats, a draw and a 0-1 last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 home losses under new manager were v Roma and Napoli. No disgrace there.

Fiorentina (10th)

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches.
  • Beat 12th, 14th, 19th and 20th away.

Conclusions

  • I have to research as it is Italian Seria A but the market is right again. Tough to call. Udinese under new manager have only lost to Napoli and Roma at home. With that kind of form, Udinese may come out of this with a draw worst case?

14:00 - Benevento v Verona - 2.1 Benevento

  • 1-0 Verona last head to head.

Benevento (20th)

  • Love cheering them on at home, ever since their goalie scored to make it 2-2 v Milan!!
  • 3 wins in 4 and a realistic chance for 3 points today.
  • Beat 15th and 17th at home recently.
  • 11 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Verona (19th)

  • Wins v Torino and Fiorentina recently do impress. But that is in the midst of 7 defeats.
  • 0-2, 0-0, 2-2 v 16th and lower away.
  • 17 of 26 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Not getting carried away with this. Benevento are relegated but at home tend to spark v fellow strugglers. A match well worth monitoring . I expect both teams to score in another competitive affair.
  • 2-2 appeals pre match as a trading angle.

14:00 - Atalanta v Sampdoria - 1.79 Atalanta

  • The home team won the head to heads in 2017.

Atalanta (8th)

  • Only 2 defeats in 12.
  • 1-1-0-1-1-1 conceded recently.
  • Only failed to score in 3 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not beaten top 5 at home.
  • 69% of goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Sampdoria (6th)

  • Only 1 loss in 7 last away v Milan.
  • 1-1-0-1-0-1-1 conceded recently. A tightening of the ship.
  • 67% of goals scored came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Strong pattern for Samp scoring first half.
  • A very tight defensive display from both sides suggests a tight match today. 1-1 possible?

14:00 - Chievo v Sassuolo - 2.42 Chievo

  • 1-3 Chievo and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.

Chievo (15th)

  • 8 losses in 10 matches.
  • 3 1-0 losses in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 10 and last 5 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Wins at home v 10th, 14th, 18th and 19th - both teams scored in those wins.
  • Scored and conceded at home v 7th and lower.

Sassuolo (16th)

  • 5 losses in 7 matches.
  • No win in 8 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Wins away v 14th, 18th and 20th were 0-1, 0-1 and 1-2.

Conclusions

  • Oh dear. Both sides have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches - how can we trust them tonight?
  • The teams tend to perform well v 14th and lower, which further muddies the waters.
  • Not a match I can get a strong angle on.

19:45 - Milan v Inter Milan - 2.46 Milan

  • Local derby so not going to dwell on this match suffice to say that I think Milan are the team with the momentum here.
  • 6 wins in 7 for Milan.Only 2 wins in 11 Inter Milan came at home, one v red carded Bologna and the other v bottom side Benevento.
  • I must be with Milan today, the home side. But do remember that derbies can be a law unto themselves. Red cards are possible!

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:30 - Pec Zwolle v VVV - 2 Zwolle

  • 1-1 in the last head to head.

Pec Zwolle (6th)

  • 6 losses and 2 wins in 8 matches.
  • No draw in 9 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All home wins v 8th and lower.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 9th and lower.

VVV (11th)

  • 3 consecutive draws.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All draws v top 9 away.
  • 67% of goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If VVV continue to draw v top 9, then this suggests laying VVV if VVV scores first. No draw in 9 for Zwolle. Does this suggest a 2-1 win (if a score draw turns into a win)?

13:30 - Sparta v ADO Den Haag - 2.26 Sparta

  • 3 consecutive 1-0 ADO wins in head to heads.

Sparta (18th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 5 defeats and a win last 6 at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win v top 12.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored at home came 1st half.

ADO

  • Only 2 losses in 11 matches came away v PSV and Feyenoord.
  • 2 losses, 3 draws last 5 away, 2 consecutive away 0-0's.
  • 6/6 wins v 14th and lower.
  • Unbeaten away v 11th and lower.

Conclusions

  • I must favour ADO today. With only 3 wins, winning is very rare indeed for bottom side Sparta.
  • I would look to take on a very late 0-0. ADO's away sequence of 0-0's should end.

13:30 - Vitesse v Ajax - 1.54 Ajax

  • 3 1-0 Ajax wins ended with a 1-2 Vitesse win in head to heads.

Vitesse (7th)

  • Only 1 win in 4.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Lost at home v 1st and 3rd.
  • Scored and conceded all v top 4.

Ajax (2nd)

  • Failed to score last match. Shock performance.
  • No defeat in 14 and in 11 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Failed to score only once away.
  • Only 1 away loss.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Ajax cannot afford to not score today given Vitesse tend to score and concede albeit without winning, v top 4.
  • No surprise a 0-0 at halftime but I'd expect goals today and both teams potential to score.
  • On form Vitesse should not win.

15:45 - Twente v Groningen - 2.04 Twente

  • 3-5 Groningen and 1-0 Groningen in the last 2 head to heads.

Twente (16th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win in 8 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • v 12th and lower at home, wins v 12th and 17th and draw v 18th.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Groningen (13th)

  • Only 1 win in 11 matches.
  • 3 consecutive draws.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No win in 7 and in 6 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 1 win away from home.

Conclusions

  • Expect 2 goals total at least. Both sides have 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • Groningen tend to see both teams score away.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the season long stats but note Twente are not in the best of form.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Levante v Espanyol - 2.62 Espanyol

  • Another unappealing match on the face of it, but I will research it.
  • 0-0 last league head to head.

Levante (17th)

  • No win in 14 and in 9 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 9 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 wins at home v 6th and 15th.
  • 8 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Opponents have scored first in 10/13 at home.

Espanyol (13th)

  • 4 draws and a win last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's away.
  • Only 1 away win.

Conclusions

  • No win in 14 plays only 1 away win. Unappealing pair, these 2.

15:15 - Barcelona v Atl Madrid - 1.68 Barcelona

  • 1-2 Barca, 1-1, 1-2 Barca , 1-1 last 4 head to heads.
  • 2 consecutive home 1-1's in head to heads.
  • Barcelona meet Chelsea on the 14th March 2018 so they should not be affected today.
  • This is a key match. If Atl Madrid can nick 3 points from Barcelona, the gap at the top becomes only 2 points.

Barcelona (1st)

  • 1-1 draw v Las Palmas adds importance to this match.
  • Unbeaten.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Not played the top 4 at home. 1-1 with Madrid earlier this season.

Atl Madrid (2nd)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 6 consecutive wins.
  • 12 clean sheets in 16 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away (38.5%).
  • Not played top 3 away.

Conclusions

  • No Champions League distractions Barcelona.
  • This is likely to be a 0-0 for a while. Back 0-0 pre match at its highest point and hope this is as tight as expected.

17:30 - Real Sociedad v Alaves - 1.81 Sociedad

  • 1-0 Alaves and 0-2 Sociedad in the last 2 head to heads.

Real Sociedad (15th)

  • 2 consecutive home wins to nil.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 defeats at home v 5th and lower came v 11th and 20th.
  • 17 first half goals scored at home.

Alaves (14th)

  • 4 wins in 5 matches. 2 losses in last 8 v Barcelona and Real Madrid.
  • No draw in 12 away.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 3 away wins.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Good recent form Alaves but they are conceding away.
  • I would lay Alaves if Alaves scores first.

19:45 - Valencia v Betis - 1.51 Valencia

  • 0-0 and 3-6 Valencia in the last 2 head to heads.

Valencia (4th)

  • 3 wins and a draw in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 14 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 100% wins at home v 8th and lower.
  • 17 of 27 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Betis (10th)

  • 5 wins in their last 8 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 away.
  • This research done before the Sociedad match on 1st March.
  • No draw in 12.
  • No 0-0.
  • Beat Real Madrid and Sevilla away but 5 other defeats away v top 13 teams.
  • 67%of goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Good recent form for Betis but the market is with Valencia today. Is that because Betis have 5.
  • Defeats in 7 matches away v top 13 teams.
  • Lay any late 0-0. Valencia scored and conceded mid week. An unhealthy habit. I would lay Betis if Betis scored first.