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DRT Daily Tips Bulletin, February 4, 2018

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4665122671997905155 is the link for today's webinar which begins at 14:00 for the Italian Seria A. See you there.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

14:15 - C Palace v Newcastle - 2.08 Palace

  • 2 consecutive Newcastle 1-0 wins in head to heads.

Palace (12th)

  • Only 2 defeats in 14 matches under Woy were v Arsenal, as I mentioned mid week.
  • 2-2-2-2-2-2-2-0-1 goals scored at home recently under new manager. The 0 was v Man City and 1 was a 1-0 win v Burnley.
  • 3 losses away v 14th, 18th and 19th but I feel Woy's work has undone that vulnerability v strugglers at home.

Newcastle (15th)

  • Only 2 losses in 6 matches came v Man City.
  • Wins away v West Ham, and Stoke ended with a loss v Man City.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 6 1-0 scorelines (4 losses) away v 6th and lower.
  • Conceded the vast majority of away goals in the 31st -75th minutes.

Conclusions

  • I am personally with Palace today given their consistency at home under Woy Hodgson.
  • 2 recent wins for Newcastle away v West Ham (simply scored one more goal and conceded 2) and Stoke (poor form this season).
  • I must lay Newcastle if Newcastle score first. Palace could return to their 2 goals again today so watch for that. Yes they did win 1-0 last match.

16:30 - Liverpool v Tottenham - 2.14 Liverpool

  • 3 wins and a draw in the last 4 head to heads at Liverpool.

Liverpool (3rd)

  • Only 2 loss since 29th October was v Swansea under new management. Back on track with a 0-3 win v Huddersfield.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 12  at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Vulnerable v top 5. Beat Man City 4-3, lost away to City, 0-0 at home v 2nd, 1-1 at home v 4th, 4-1 loss away v 5th.
  • 17 of 25 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Tottenham (5th)

  • Ended a run of 3 losses v top 3 with an excellent win v Man Utd mid week.
  • Scored in their last 13 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 7 matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 3 losses away v top 6 teams 4 losses away v top 8.

Conclusions

  • Tottenham ended a poor sequence v top 3 teams with a win mid week.
  • Liverpool put to bed their shock loss v Swansea with an emphatic win v Huddersfield.
  • As with the Tottenham v Man Utd match mid week, this is tough to call. A big team clash of top 5 teams. In head to heads, Liverpool have tended to win or draw.
  • Is that enough to side with Liverpool today?

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Verona v Roma - 1.5 Roma

  • 3 1-1 draws ended with a 3-0 Roma win.

Verona (19th)

  • Only 4 wins and beat Fiorentina emphatically last match. That skewed the form lines.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • 5 losses in their last 6 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • All defeats v top 5.

Roma (5th)

  • No win in 6 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws away.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only away loss v Juventus.

Conclusions

  • The Roma odds should be shorter. They are not given the recent winless run.
  • I would have to lay a Verona lead. Roma are scoring and conceding and tending to score draw.
  • I would lay any late 1-1 draw. I think Roma will be keen to end this season.
  • Verona remember have 5 losses in 6 home matches so this should present a good opportunity for the away team to end that winless sequence.

14:00 - Atalanta v Chievo - 1.4 Atalanta

  • 1-0 Atalanta and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Atalanta (8th)

  • 2 consecutive home losses.
  • The only 2 losses in 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 10th and lower.
  • 5 wins, a 1-1 and a loss v teams 12th and lower at home.
  • 8 of 12 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Chievo (13th)

  • 6 losses and 2 draws in the last 8 matches.
  • No win in 7 away matches.
  • 4 losses in 5 away matches.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • An unbeaten run away v 9th-16th inclusive.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side home and away.

Conclusions

  • Atalanta odds at first glance look too short, particularly if Chievo can extend their unbeaten away run v 9th-16th inclusive, to 8th.
  • But they are yet to beat a top 8 side home and away.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • No win in 7 away for Chievo enough for us to lay them if they score first?

14:00 - Bologna v Fiorentina - 2.3 Fiorentina

  • 3 consecutive wins for Fiorentina in head to heads.

Bologna (12th)

  • Only 3 draws all season were 1-1.
  • 5 losses and 2 wins in the last 7 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 13 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Poor form at home, with wins v 6th, 18th and 20th.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • Scored first in 7/11 at home.

Fiorentina (11th)

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in the last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • All away wins v 16th and lower.
  • Gap in form away v 7th-15th - only 1 away match played.

Conclusions

  • There is a gap in form for Fiorentina away from home which may muddy the waters. They have not really played a mid table side away.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

14:00 - Cagliari v Spal - 2.18 Cagliari

  • 0-2 Cagliari in the last head to head.

Cagliari (16th)

  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 10 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • 100% wins v the bottom 4. At home.
  • Opponents have scored first in 8/11 at home.

SPAL (18th)

  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 matches with only 1 win v Benevento.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Only away win v Benevento (bottom side).
  • 6 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Cagliari should have this match earmarked for the win today. They have already beaten SPAL away from home and have beaten all of the bottom 4 at home.
  • SPAL's only away win is v struggling Benevento.
  • SPAL have a very strong scoring and conceding pattern so if scoring first should be opposed.
  • Using logic, a winning scoreline of 2-1 fits here?

14:00 - Juventus v Sassuolo - 1.27 Juventus

  • 4 consecutive Juventus wins in head to heads.
  • 8 games in for the new manager of Sassuolo.

Juventus  (2nd)

  • A win could take them top.
  • 8 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 12 wins in 14 matches.
  • 100% wins home and away v 9th and lower.
  • Scored first in 9/11 at home.

Sassuolo (14th)

  • No win in 4.
  • Recent 1-1 draw v Roma away catches the eye.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Only led one match away at halftime.
  • 3-3-6 goals conceded v top 3 this season.

Conclusions

  • At their best, Juventus should be eyeing 3+ goals today. Sassuolo have managed to score v the top 3 but conceded 12 goals in 3 matches.
  • There seems to be no strong argument here for an upset.
  • In the expectation for goals, it is not a stretch to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Niggle? Sassuolo 1-1 v Roma last away match.

14:00 - Udinese v AC Milan - 2.24 AC Milan

  • 2-1 Udinese and 2-1 Milan in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Udinese have scored first in 11/18 home matches while AC Milan have conceded first in 13/17 away matches.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 7/11 AC Milan away matches against middle-third teams.

Udinese (9th)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 under a new manager. Vast improvement.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Wins at home v 6th and 8th and play 7th today.

Milan (7th)

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • All defeats bar one came v top 8 teams.

Conclusions

  • An interesting match with Udinese vastly improved under a new manager.
  • Milan though only tend to lose to top 8 teams. Will that continue to 9th?
  • Lay any late 0-0. A good Udinese display would not disappoint. I must say though that Milan are improving rapidly - 3 consecutive wins - is that because they are playing lesser teams?

19:45 - Benevento v Napoli - 1.2 Napoli

  • 6-0 Napoli in the last head to head.

Benevento (20th)

  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 100% losses v top 5.
  • Scored and conceded at home in 4/5 matches v top 7.
  • 9 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Not led at halftime at home.

Napoli (1st)

  • No defeat in 11 away.
  • 6 consecutive wins, 4 away.
  • 3 0-1 wins in 4 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 3-3-2-6 goals scored in wins v the bottom 3.

Conclusions

  • Really Napoli should eye the win here although Benevento are likely to give a spirited performance. 2 consecutive home wins have the fans loving it.
  • Benevento have scored and conceded v top teams at home so let's hope, please, that they can score first here!
  • If Benevento survive to halftime 0-0, expect Napoli to score 2nd half.
  • If Napoli are on song, they should score 2/3 goals. But 3 0-1 wins in 4 away matches sees Napoli only limping over the line.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11am - Getafe v Leganes - 1.97 Getafe

  • 1-2 Getafe in the last head to head.

Getafe (9th)

  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • Last 3 defeats since 21st October 2017 were away from home.
  • Unbeaten in 7 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower.
  • 12 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Leganes (11th)

  • 3-2 loss, 2-2 and 3-2 win last 3 matches.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v top 13.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I would side with Getafe today at least not to lose.
  • If 0-0 at halftime fear not, both sides have very strong 2nd half scoring patterns.

15:15 - Espanyol v Barcelona - 1.35 Barcelona

  • Barcelona tend to win. They 'allowed' Espanyol to win 0-1 in the first leg of the Copa del rey and won the 2nd leg with ease.
  • Espanyol have lost by two or more goals in 6/9 home matches against Big Two teams while Barcelona have won by two or more goals in 6/8 trips to bottom-half teams.
  • Espanyol have lost 8/9 home matches against Big Two teams.

Espanyol (14th)

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Lost 5-0 to Barca already this season.
  • Beat Atl Madrid 1-0 at home-that is the template for today. 0-0 and nick an 88th minute winner.
  • Only scored 2 goals twice at home.

Barcelona (1st)

  • Unbeaten. V Sociedad and Alaves recently, Barcelona came from behind to win. More today please!
  • Scored in every match.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 8 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Have lost at halftime in 3 matches.
  • 100% wins v 8th and lower.
  • 24 of 28 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Barcelona should be scoring 2 goals and winning today. Espanyol at their best will look to keep a clean sheet as they did v Atl Madrid.
  • I would not be surprised with a 0-0 at halftime but as with Sociedad and Alaves, Barcelona scored 2nd half consistently and even won.

17:30 - Girona v Athletic Bilbao - 2.56 Girona

  • 2-0 Bilbao last head to head.
  • I would have expected Bilbao to be clear favourites today. is there a story behind the odds?

Girona (10th)

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 of 15 matches.
  • Scored in each of their last 6 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.

Ath Bilbao (12th)

  • Unbeaten in 10 but 7 draws.
  • 3 consecutive score draws.
  • Scored in each of their last 6 away.
  • No away 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Girona certainly have goals in them and we could be heading for another score draw today.

19:45 - Atletico Madrid v Valencia - 1.52 Atl Madrid

  • Atl Madrid tend to win but then a 0-0 last head to head.

Atl Madrid (2nd)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 8 clean sheets in their last 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 10 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All draws v top 5 home and away.
  • Not conceded 2 goals at home this season.
  • 11 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Valencia (3rd)

  • 5 losses in their last 8 matches were the only losses this season.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Not played top 2 away but 2 draws at home.
  • 11 of 15 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Valencia are suddenly losing. But we note with both sides that, when playing the top 4, we tend to see a draw.
  • This suggests a 1-1 opening gambit given Valencia have scored and conceded in 6/7 recently.
  • Atl Madrid have a habit for 2nd half scoring so watch that.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Augsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt - 2.48 Augsburg

  • 3-1 Frankfurt and 1-2 Augsburg in the last 2 head to heads.

Augsburg (8th)

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 at home.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • 1-1 v 2nd and 1-0 v 5th at home.
  • Only 1 win though v top 12 at home.

Frankfurt (4th)

  • Only 2 defeats in 14 matches came v Bayern and Leverkusen. Solid stuff.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 away matches.
  • Unbeaten away v 7th and lower.
  • 10 of 14 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • We may see both teams scoring today. 1-1 looks like a tradable scoreline.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. If Frankfurt score , they are more likely to score 1st half.
  • 2.48 odds tells you the market cannot split these 2. I personally would be more inclined towards Frankfurt.

17:00 - Hamburg v Hannover - 2.28 Hamburg

  • 0-3 Hamburg and 2-0 Hannover last 2 head to heads.

Hannover (10th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • No win in 7 matches.
  • Beat 8th and 9th at home.

Conclusions

  • And there I will end this one. Messy form for both teams. I'd rather concentrate on better candidates.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - Rennes v Guingamp - 2.02 Rennes

  • 1-1 and 2-0 Guingamp in the last 2 head to heads.

Rennes (8th)

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No draw in 9 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v teams below them in the league.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Guingamp (10th)

  • 3 consecutive losses.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All away defeats v teams above them in the league.

Conclusions

  • On form, Rennes should eye a positive result here today.
  • Rennes score a vast majority of goals 2nd half, so note that if 0-0 at halftime at home.

20:00 - Monaco v Lyon - 2.38 Monaco

  • 1-3 Lyon, 1-2 Monaco and 3-2 Lyon in the last 3 head to heads.
  • A top 4 clash.

Monaco (4th)

  • Only 5 defeats, one a 3-2 v Lyon.
  • Unbeaten in 8 and in 5 at home.
  • Scored in their last 12 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 7 1-0 lead at halftime at home.
  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • Most vulnerable v top 7 where we see 1 win, 4 defeats, 4 draws.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Lyon (2nd)

  • 3 consecutive 1-2 away wins ended with a 0-2 win last match.
  • Scored in their last 10 and last 9 away only 2 away v top 5, 2-0 loss and 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Goal fest last time these 2 met.
  • Lyon have been goal shy v top 5 away - if that continues then Monaco may gain revenge over a Lyon 3-2 win last match.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:30 - Excelsior v Utrecht - 1.85 Utrecht

  • 2 2-1 wins and then 2 3-1 wins in the last 4 head to heads.

Excelsior (11th)

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 100% defeats at home v top 10.

Utrecht (7th)

  • 4 draws in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 11 matches.
  • Scored in their last 5 away matches.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 2 defeats v top 12 sides came v the top 3.

Conclusions

  • I would favour Utrecht. A poor draw habit but only 2 losses v top 12 teams.
  • 100% defeats at home v top 10 for Excelsior.
  • I would lay any late draw here and hope Utrecht's recent pattern ends.

13:30 - Az Alkmaar v Roda JC - 1.2 AZ Alkmaar

  • 1-1, 1-1, 0-1 AZ in the last 3 head to heads.

AZ Alkmaar (3rd)

  • Only 1 loss in 13 matches came v Ajax.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No draw in 10 at home.
  • Scored in their last 13 matches.
  • 3 of 4 defeats came v top 4.
  • 17 of 21 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Roda (17th)

  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 12 and last 10 away.
  • 100% away defeats v top 15.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored away came first half.

Conclusions

  • The odds look right here. Roda tend to lose to top 15 conceding 2+ goals.
  • No draw in 10 at home for AZ suggests a home win.

15:45 - Ajax v Breda - 1.09 Ajax

  • 0-0 and 0-8 Ajax in the last 2 head to heads.

Ajax (2nd)

  • 7 wins in 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 at home.
  • 3-3-3-3-8-5-4 goals scored home and away v 13th and lower.
  • 22 of 28 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Breda (16th)

  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of 4 matches.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • Did beat Feyenoord away but have conceded 4-8-2 goals v top 3.

Conclusions

  • Ajax are expected to score 3+ goals at least which fits in with the Ajax 1.09 odds.
  • In expectation for goals, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Ajax have been conceding at home so watch that. The ideal is a Breda lead so we can take them on.

13:30 - VVV v Feyenoord - 1.58 Feyenoord

  • 1-0 Feyenoord and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

VVV (10th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side.
  • 5 losses and a draw at home v top 9.
  • 13 of 17 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Feyenoord (4th)

  • Only 4 losses.
  • Only 2 losses in 14 matches were v Ajax.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 3 of 4 losses this season came v top 2.
  • 12 goals scored away came within the first half hour.

Conclusions

  • Good recent form for VVV but 5 losses and a draw at home v top 9.
  • On that basis, Feyenoord should not lose. They really only tend to lose to top 2 teams.

18:00 - Estoril v Sporting Lisbon - 1.52 Sporting Lisbon

  • 5 consecutive Sporting wins in head to heads.

Estoril (17th)

  • Only 4 wins all required 3 goals, 2 of them were 3-2 wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played the top 4 at home. Lost to all top 4 away.

Sporting Lisbon (3rd)

  • Unbeaten.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Scored in their last 12 matches and last 9 away.
  • 2-1, 3-0, 0-2 v bottom 2 so Estoril should be within their compass.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws away.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 8/9 away.

Conclusions

  • It's a great battle at the top between the top 3. Benfica and Porto both won last night. Sporting are expecting 3 points today.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws away does suggest we lay Estoril if Estoril scores first.
  • Sporting are in good goal scoring form so do expect them to score.