DRT Daily Research Bulletin, September 3, 2023
Summer leagues researched below but there are some elite league matches. I'll be covering them all today via the chat feed and live chat webinar. Links above.
Finnish Veikkausliiga
14:00 - FC Haka v Seinajoen - 2.25 SJK
Haka - 8th
- 7 consecutive home draws.
- Scored and conceded last 10 home.
- 10/15 goals conceded at home 1st half.
- 2-1 loss last head-to-head.
SJK - 3rd
- 6/9 goals conceded away 2nd half.
- Unbeaten away v 5th and lower.
Conclusions
- Both teams to score a very obvious Haka pattern. Lay any late score draw - Haka will be sick of the sight of them! SJK good unbeaten record away v 5th and lower to continue today?
14:00 - HJK Helsinki v Kuopio PS - 2.05 HJK
- Derby-style match with the big 2 in Finland. Add in a little pro-European club competition spice and I'll leave this to the in-play stats.
14:00 - Inter Turku v Oulu - 1.95 Inter Turku
Inter Turku - 6th
- 2 consecutive 2-1 wins.
- Scored and conceded last 4 at home, conceded last 7 at home.
- Scored first in 7/10 at home.
- 11/12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- Unbeaten home v 5th and lower.
Oulu - 7th
- No draw in 7 away.
- Conceded last 9 away.
- 13/16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- Only 1 win away v top 8 and play 6th today.
Conclusions
- Both teams could score with Inter not losing.
- Very strong 2nd half goals patterns so remember that if quiet first half.
- Inter are unbeaten at home v 5th and lower.
14:00 - KTP Kotka v Honka - 1.91 Honka
KTP - 10th
- No draw in 6.
- 8/10 goals scored at home 2nd half.
- 0-1 win last head-to-head.
Honka - 5th
- 4 wins in 5 matches.
- 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals away.
- 5/7 goals scored away 2nd half.
Conclusions
- Honka look like they can keep it tight away with their under 2.5 goals and coming in here in winning form, I honk towards Honka here. Beep Beep. Note Honka's strong 2nd half goals scoring.
14:00 - Lahti v Ilves - 2.30 Ilves
- 2.30 the favourite. Follow in-play IF at all.
14:00 - Mariehamn v Vaasa PS - 1.95 VPS
Mariehamn - 12th
- Bottom of the league. Four losses in five. No win in six at home for. Four out of six goals scored at home came first. Half A21 loss. Last head-to-head have failed to score in all home matches against the top five this season.
VPS - 4th
- Nine consecutive wins, no draw in 14. Four consecutive away. Clean sheets. Two plus goals scored in the last seven matches for nil-nil at halftime away. None at full-time. Unbeaten against the bottom 2 in 3 matches this season.
Conclusions
- Do what we did last match and lay Bottom of the League Mariehamn if they are leading. VPS unbeaten in 3 v the bottom 2 and VPS are scoring 2 goals regularly per match.
Norwegian Eliteserien
16:00 - Aalesund v Lillestrom - 1.80 Lillestrom
Aaelsund - 16th
- Only one draw all season. No draw in 14. No draw in seven at home. Five-one defeat. Last head-to-head. Three home wins came against fourth. Eighth and 10th. Two of the wins were one nil. Only 12 of 16 goals conceded at home came. Second half.
Lillestrom - 6th
- No draw in nine conceded in the last 11 matches. Four out of four wins home and away against 13th and lower scoring between 3 and 5 goals. 67% of goals away came second half. Ten goals in total in the 75th to 90th minute.
Conclusions
- Lillestrom find the bottom 2 very accommodating - 3+ goals expected at their best today.
- Lay any late draw.
16:00 - Brann v Sarpsborg - 1.70 Brann
Brann - 5th
- No draw in eight scored first in seven out of ten home matches led at halftime in six out of ten home matches. All defeats bar one this season have come away from home against the top 9. 21 defeat last head-to-head unbeaten at home against sixth and lower.
Sarpsborg - 7th
- No draw in 15 scored in the last 16; 15 consecutive over 2.5 goals four away. Defeats came against third, fourth, 10th and 13th. In three of those defeats, they conceded five goals. Eight goals conceded away in the last 15 minutes.
Conclusions
- Lay any late draw. Both teams to score a possible here. Brann are far better at home. Sarpsborg did beat them in head to head but Brann lose away but remain unbeaten at home. Tough to pick but rely on Brann? Better at home?
16:00 - Haugesund v Molde - 1.55 Molde
Haugesund - 12th
- No win in five scored in the last seven at home. All defeats. So far against the top five home and away scored and conceded in the two defeats at home against the top three one nil defeat last head to head 11 of 13 goals conceded at home came second half.
Molde - 4th
- No defeat in eight and in four away unbeaten in home and away against 10th to 13th inclusive unbeaten away against 11th to 15th inclusive. Nine of 14 goals conceded away came second half.
Conclusions
- If patterns continue, Haugesund could score albeit in likely defeat. They are strong first half defensively so may start conceding 2nd half. Molde are good v 11th-15th, teams around Haugesund in the league.
16:00 - Odd BK v Sandefjord - 1.73 Odd
Odd - 9th
- No drawing five at home, six consecutive over 2.5 goals for one defeat. Last head-to-head unbeaten at home in the four matches they've played against eight and lower bitty home form can beat fifth but lose to sixth can beat 14th but draw with 10th inconsistent form six of eight goals conceded at home came second half.
Sandefjord - 13th
- No draw in 7 away conceded in the last 7 away. Opponents have scored first in eight out of ten away matches and have led at halftime in six out of ten away matches. No win away against the top 12.
Conclusions
- Odd home form is lacking in patterns which makes them hard to read.
- Sandefjord tend to let opponents score first away from home and indeed are yet to beat a top12 side - they play 9th today.
16:00 - Stromsgodset v Stabaek - 2.15 Stromsgodset
Stroms - 10th
- Three consecutive home defeats. No draw in nine home matches conceded in the last seven matches. No. One win. Head-to-head. Only four home wins came against first, seventh, 13th and 16th have had four one-nil wins home and away against 13th and lower and five one-nil scorelines out of six against 13th and lower.
Stabaek - 15th
- Five consecutive defeats. No win in seven away matches conceded in the last five. Opponents have scored first in seven out of nine away matches. Only one win amongst seven defeats away against the top 11. And in the win the opponent still scored two goals have conceded two goals at least. In all, by one match away against the top 11.
Conclusions
- The market is a little lukewarm but it seems obvious that if Stabaek continue to concede 2 goals and generally lose v the top 11 away, we have to look towards Stroms but their record v 13th and lower tends to see a 1-0 result!
16:00 - Tromso v Rosenborg - 2.15 Tromso
Tromso - 3rd
- Only two defeats since the 29th of May. Three consecutive home wins. Unbeaten in six at home. Only one loss at home against second and lower was a nil. One, two, one loss. Last head-to-head have a run of four out of four wins against fourth to seventh at home and are playing eighth today. 10 or 15 goals scored at home came second half.
Rosenborg - 8th
- Five wins and a loss last six matches. No draw in nine. Opponents have scored first in seven out of nine away matches. Not beaten a top-nine side away from home. Six goals conceded away in the first 15 minutes of away matches.
Conclusions
- The away form for Rosenberg Doesn't look good enough to trouble Tromso today. A side who have only had two defeats since the 29th of May. So they know how not to lose their unbeaten in six at home as well, which gives them a strong advantage coming into this particular match. Tromso tend to score two-thirds of their home goals in the second half, so watch out for that if it's a tight or a quiet first half. Rosenberg Five wins and a loss in the last six matches, But opponents have scored first, generally speaking, away from home and are yet to beat a top-nine side away from home. So we'll have to be favoring Tromso. And what we see on the seasonal form.
18:15 - Ham-Kam v Bodo/Glimt - 1.40 Bodo/Glimt
Ham-Kam - 11th
- Three wins in four at home. No draw in 11. All defeats home and away against the top five. Three nil defeat last head to head. Failed to score in three out of four matches at home against the top six. 62% plus of goals at home. Second half.
Bodo/Glimt - 1st
- Only three defeats all season. Two losses in the last three matches. No draw and ten away scored and conceded in the last three away. Scored two-plus goals in each of the last four away or wins home and away against 11th and lower all wins by a two-nil defeat away against third and lower.
Conclusions
- Layany late draw, Ham-kam will have to overcome 100% defeat record home and away against the top five. Unlikely to do so with Bodo Glimt having only three defeats all season. They do score and concede in the last three away, but they could concede without losing Bodo Glimt today. They should be eyeing two-plus goals at least. Ham-Kam have trouble even scoring against the top six at home, so we're clearly favoring the away side today. As long as European club competition action doesn't mess with the form lines.
Swedish Allsvenskan
14:00 - Hammarby v AIK - 2.10 Hammarby
Hammarby - 6th
- Four consecutive home wins scored first in seven out of nine home matches haven't played 11th to 14th at home, but have only lost one home match all season. Two plus goals scored in all bar one of the wins at home. Eight out of nine goals conceded at home came second half.
AIK - 13th
- Only two defeats since the 1st of July. Scored in the last five away yet to beat a top-five side home or away. Yet to beat the top nine side away from home scored two goals. Only twice away from home. Seven out of ten goals scored away came first half.
Conclusions
- Hammarby have lost only 1 home match so are more confident with home advantage but they play an AIK rarely losing since 1st July BUT an AIK struggling for 2 goals away (vulnerable if leading) and struggling to beat any top 9 side away.
14:00 - Kalmar v Mjallby - 2.30 Kalmar
- In-play stats only with 2.3 the favourite.
16:30 - Malmo v IFK Goteborg - 1.33 Malmo
Malmo - 2nd
- No defeat in three at home. Two consecutive home clean sheets scored first in seven of 11 home matches or Winnsboro. Nil-nil home and away against ninth and lower this season have scored three-plus goals at least at home against ninth and lower nil one win last head-to-head.
IFK - 12th
- Four wins in five matches. Three consecutive wins scoring conceded last. Three scored two-plus goals in each of the last three not beaten the top 14 side away from home. Failed to score that second goal away against the top 11 did score against first and third away from home without winning.
Conclusions
- Second against 12th should pick itself. Malmo are unbeaten in three. Keeping clean sheets at home as well tend to score first at home. So we're unlikely to get a trade. Four wins in five for IFK, but consistently failing to score that second goal against the top 11 should cost them today. Not beating a top 14 side away from home either. IFK said. They've got to do something they haven't done all season in beating Malmo today. Unlikely to happen.
16:30 - Norrkoping v Djurgarden - 2.25 Djurgarden
Norrkoping - 5th
- Three consecutive home wins. Five wins in the last seven matches scored in the last ten. Two plus goals scored in the last four to two. Last head-to-head Failed to beat the top four. Home and Away conceding two goals at least in four of those in all five matches. One two loss and a 2-2 draw at home against the top three.
Djurgarden - 4th
- Would be much better at home. No win in two away. Not beaten the top six away from home. Only two away wins came against eighth and ninth. Six goals conceded away in the last 15 minutes.
Conclusions
- One of those markets suggesting a tight match. Probably because it is a top 5 clash. Norrköping coming to this in excellent form. Three consecutive home wins, but they don't tend to beat the top three. Tend to concede two goals at least. Is that pattern going to continue today? The away side far, far better at home than they are away. That's the concern. Only two away wins against eighth and ninth. We can't be certain that they'll put their best foot forward. So it's a tough match to predict. Home side coming into this in excellent home form and excellent recent form. But the away side are top four for a reason. But most of the good work for the away side is done at home.
16:30 - Varberg v Brommapojkarna - 2.10 Bromma
Varberg - 16th
Conclusions
- Just based on the above, Varberg could be layable if leading. Bromma away wins v 5th, 7th, 9th and 11th suggests they may be able to cope with bottom of the league.
- Varberg yet to score 2 goals at home.
Swedish Superettan
14:00 - Helsingborg v GIF Sundsvall - 2.05 Helsingborg
Helsingborg - 15th
- Three consecutive home defeats scored and conceded in the last seven have led at halftime and only one out of ten home matches. One one draw last head to head. Only two wins at home came against third and sixth. Seven goals conceded away in the last 15 minutes of matches. Five goals scored away in the last 15 minutes of home matches.
GIF - 12th
- No win in five away, conceded in the last 11 and last nine away. Three away wins against fifth, ninth and 11th have lost away to 14th and 16th in play 15th today. All defeats away came when they failed to score.
Conclusions
- Both teams to score a strong Helsingborg pattern. Strong last 15 minutes goals in Helsingborgs home matches so prepare for that.
- Tough to read GIF, can beat 5th, 9th, 11th away but lose to 14th and 16th away. Note too GIF have only lost away when they haven't scored. Keep an eye on in-play stats.
14:00 - Trelleborg v Eskilstuna - 2.05 Trelleborg
Trelleborg - 11th
- Only one win since the 10th of June. No win in four at home scored and conceded in the last four. One nil defeat last head to head, three wins at home came against second, sixth, 10th and 14th. Two of those wins were one nil. Only 62% of home goals scored came first half.
Eskilstuna - 9th
- Conceded in the last five away. Opponents have scored first in eight out of ten. Away matches never led at half-time away. Two away wins came against seventh and eighth, but did lose to 13th and 16th and third, fourth and fifth. Inconsistent form lines. Seven out of eight goals scored away came six and a half.
Conclusions
- Inconsistent form patterns for both teams leaves me unable to offer you much here. Eski do score 2nd half.
