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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
14:00 - Crystal Palace v Leicester - 2.2 Leicester
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 14/19 C Palace home matches while Leicester have drawn the first half in 8/13 away matches against top-six teams. C Palace have lost 8/9 home matches against top-six teams.
- 3 losses for Palace came v Sheff Utd, Tottenham away and Man City at home.
- Palace have not met 3rd-11th at home. Leicester are 3rd.
- Leicester's only defeats came v Man Utd and Liverpool away. Inbetween 6 wins.
- Leicester have not beaten the 3 top 7 sides they play away so far. They meet 6th today.
- Angles? Leicester were higher odds v Southampton and murdered them. Palace are a little less giving but still I must be with Leicester although they are yet to beat an early season top 7 side.
16:30 - Everton v Tottenham - 2.66 Tottenham
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/11 Everton home matches and they have drawn the first half in 11/16 home matches against middle-third teams. Spurs have scored first in 9/14 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- I won't research this match. Unreadable Everton plays 'which Spurs will turn up today?'. Pre-Champions League for Spurs too.
FRENCH LIGUE 1
- It's a tough league at the best of times, and even worse with 2.38, 2.78 and 2.58 favourites. I will not research French Ligue 1.
14:00 - Bordeaux v Nantes - 2.38 Bordeaux
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Bordeaux home matches and in 12/16 Nantes away matches. Nantes have drawn the first half in 13/18 away matches.
- 7 1-0 scorelines in 8 matches for Nantes.
- 2 consecutive 1-0 defeats.
- 2 consecutive home 0-1 defeats for Bordeaux.
- 5/5 wins for Nantes v 6th-12th - 4 wins were 1-0.
- 4 of 5 goals scored away by Nantes came 2nd half 80% of goals scored and 83% of goals conceded came 2nd half.
- Angles? Back 0-0 pre match with this Nantes side if they can continue being defensive and scoring and conceding 2nd half. Please remember 2.38 the favourite suggests a tough to call match.
16:00 - Nice v Reims - 2.78 Nice
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 15/20 Nice home matches and in 17/20 Reims away matches. Reims have drawn the first half in 9/13 away matches.
- 4 loss and a draw in 5 for Nice.
- 8 clean sheets this season for Reims.
- Reims have not played 13th and lower away. 3 0-0's at home v these sides.
- Angles? Not a match which appeals. Back 0-0 pre-match? Cash out as late as possible.
20:00 - St Etienne v Monaco - 2.58 Monaco
- 1st half outcome: Monaco have lost the first half in 9/11 away matches against middle-third teams and they have conceded first in 10/11 such matches. Saint-Etienne have won 9/11 home matches against middle-third teams.
- 3 1-0 wins and a draw last 4 matches for St Etienne. 4 wins in 5 matches for Monaco.
- Angles? A quick halt. Leave this to the in-play stats.
14:30 - Dusseldorf v Koln - 2.52 Koln
- Promoted last year plays newly promoted this year.
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 11/13 F Dusseldorf home matches and in 4/5 FC Koln away matches. FC Koln have lost 3/5 away matches.
- 2 strugglers. Both with limited form v the bottom 5 (where both reside).
- Dusseldorf have not scored that 2nd goal at home. Koln scored 2 goals only once away.
- Angles? In-play stats as this is too tough to read.
17:00 - Augsburg v Schalke - 1.99 Schalke
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/8 Augsburg home matches against top-half teams and +3.5 goals in 7/11 Augsburg home matches. Schalke 04 have drawn the first half in 10/15 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- Only 1 win.
- 2 consecutive draws.
- Both teams scored in 3/4 matches.
- Only 1 clean sheet last match.
- Failed to score in only 2 matches.
- Not beaten top 8 yet.
- A return to the solidity of 2 seasons ago. Only lost v Bayern Munich and a resurgent Hoffenheim.
- Draw, loss, draw last 3 matches.
- Not played 11th-17th away. Beat 18th 1-5.
- Gap in form for Schalke. Not played 11th-18th away but Augsburg are struggling to beat the current top 8, where Schalke reside. No European distractions. Both teams may score but on season form Schalke should not lose.
ITALIAN SERIA A
11:30 - Atalanta v Cagliari - 1.29 Atalanta
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 Atalanta home matches against top-half teams and +3.5 goals in 8/12 Atalanta home matches. Cagliari have had L/L double results in 11/16 away matches against top-six teams.
- No indepth research of Atalanta. We know they are scoring 2+ goals a game and did so away v a strong Napoli.
- Cagliari are in decent nick, unbeaten since the first 2 matches of the season.
- 1-1-1 goals scored away recently by Cagliari.
- No 0-0 at halftime for Atalanta. Only 1 0-0 at halftime away for Cagliari.
- Atalanta have only met the top 12 once at home so a slight gap in form, given Cagliari are 7th. Cagliari met only one of the top 4 away, 1-1 v 4th
- Angles? Atalanta host Man City next week. Will this play on their minds? Gap in form is a concern. Yes they are scoring 2+ goals but have only met a top 12 side once at home.
- If this pattern continues and if Cagliari keep scoring a single goal, the outcome seems obvious. Note the word 'seems'.
14:00 - Genoa v Udinese - 2.04 Genoa
- 1st half outcome: Genoa have drawn the first half in 7/10 home matches against middle-third teams as have Udinese in 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. Udinese have scored first in 8/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- Only 2 wins came at home.
- Both teams scored in all bar 2 matches.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Only 1 win v top 11.
- Only played one match v 12th and lower.
- 5 of 7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- Not scored a 2nd goal yet.
- 3 losses and a 0-0 away. 0-0-0-1 goals scored.
- Only played one match v 15th and lower.
- Gaps in form for both teams does concern me here.
- Strong 2nd half scoring and conceding for Genoa.
- Udinese still have not scored that 2nd goal.
Lecce v Sassuolo - 2.46 Lecce
- Match outcome: Sassuolo have won 10/14 away matches against promoted teams and they have scored first in 9/13 such matches. Promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 52% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15.
- Only 2 wins for Lecce came away.
- 0-1-0-1 goals scored at home.
- 3 consecutive score draws.
- Lecce have not kept a clean sheet.
- Lecce are yet to meet 13th and lower, where Sassuolo are.
- They have won away v 13th and 19th.
- Only 2 wins for Sassuolo. Loss, Loss, Loss, Win away.
- Sassuolo failed to score in only one match.
- Angles? As tough as the market suggests. 2 teams lacking form.Note Lecce yet to keep a clean sheet.
Verona v Brescia - 2.26 Verona
- -1.5 goals: There have been -1.5 goals in 3/5 Verona home matches and in 3/5 Brescia away matches. Brescia have lost 3/5 away matches.
- Only 3 wins. 2 1-0 wins.
- DLDWL (D-draw, L-loss, W-Win) at home. Inconsistent.
- Only 1 over 2.5 goals all season.
- Played 2 of 16th and lower, 0-1 away and 2-0 at home.
- Only 2 wins came away 0-1.
- 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
- Both teams scored in 4 of their last 5 matches (all defeats).
- If Brescia cannot score 2 goals, they look vulnerable and lose then both teams score.
- Back 0-0 pre match? Look at the under 2.5 goals pattern for Verona. 1-0, 0-1?
17:00 - Fiorentina v Parma - 1.58 Fiorentina
- 1st half outcome: Fiorentina have drawn the first half in 9/13 home matches against middle-third teams and they have drawn 8/15 home matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 9/10 Parma away matches against top-half teams.
- Only 3 losses. Only 1 loss last 8 matches.
- All wins this season v 10th and lower.
- Home losses v 5th and 6th.
- Win, Loss, Loss, Draw away.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Conceded last 5 matches.
- No 0-0 at halftime away.
- Not beaten the top 12 yet.
- All wins v 13th and lower.
- Neither side has beaten a top 10 side yet. All wins for Fiorentina v 10th and lower, and Parma 13th and lower.
- It could be a match where the odds are a little short for Fiorentina. Is this down to only 1 loss in 8 though, and Parma not winning last 3 away?
19:45 - AC Milan v Lazio - 2.56 Lazio
- 1st half outcome: AC Milan have drawn the first half in 6/9 home matches against top-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 6/8 Lazio away matches against middle-third teams.
- Europa League for Lazio.
- 2.56 suggests a watching brief.
- 3/4 Milan wins this season were 1-0 suggesting laying them if they score first (cover the 1-0).
- 2 Lazio losses came away but they are unbeaten in 5, scoring 2+ goals in all 5 matches.
- Angles? Due deference to the market (leave alone) but on form, Lazio look strong if not distracted by the Europa League. 2+ goals scored regularly v a Milan who only tend to win 1-0. Milan's goal shyness may cost them here.
SPANISH LA LIGA
11am - Valladolid v Mallorca - 2.16 Valladolid
- Only 3 wins for Valladolid. Only 1 came at home.
- Draw, Draw, Draw, Win at home.
- 3/3 wins v 14th and lower. Mallorca are 17th.
- Newly promoted. 3/3 wins at home but 4/4 defeats away.
- Tread warily as ever with newly promoted sides. Remember Real Madrid lost to them.
- Only 3 wins for Valladolid did come v 14th and lower. A sign they can cope with 17th? They did score 2 goals in those wins.
13:00 - Villarreal v Athletic Bilbao - 1.87 Villareal
- 1st goal: Villarreal have scored first in 8/10 home matches while Ath. Bilbao have conceded first in 6/8 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams. Ath. Bilbao have lost 7/8 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.
- Unbeaten at home.
- 3 consecutive home wins.
- 4-2-2-5-4 goals scored at home.
- Scored in every match.
- All wins v 13th and lower.
- 80% over 3.5 goals at home.
- 13 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Ath Bilbao (8th)
- 3 losses last 5 matches.
- 3 draws and 2 away losses last 5 away.
- 1-0-1-0-0 goals scored away.
- Only 1 over 2.5 goals match came last match.
- Conceded 2 goals only once.
- Attack v defence? Ath Bilbao have conceded 2 goals only once and Villareal have scored 2+ goals in all home matches.
- If Bilbao remain blunt away (1-0-1-0-0 scored) then a team like Villareal scoring in every match will get a score draw worst case scenario.
- Do remember a strong 2nd half scoring pattern for Villareal at home.
15:00 - Osasuna v Alaves - 2.16 Osasuna
- Match outcome: Alaves have lost 7/10 away matches and they have conceded first in 8/9 away matches against middle-third teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 3/5 Osasuna home matches.
- 2 losses came away v Real Madrid and Granada.
- Draw, Draw, Draw, Win, Win at home.
- Wins v Valencia and Villareal. Playing another side with v in their name.
- Scored and conceded in 4/5 matches without losing.
- 0-0 at home v 14th and 16th.
- 5 of 7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- All 3 wins came at home.
- 4 consecutive away defeats.
- 2+ goals conceded in each of their last 4 away matches.
- Always a watching brief with the newly promoted but Osasuna are in good nick and play an Alaves conceding 2 goals and losing away. Osasuna scored and conceded in 4/5 without losing. An angle?
17:30 - Leganes v Eibar - 2.04 Leganes
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 12/14 Leganes home matches and in 8/10 Eibar away matches. There have been -1.5 goals in 7/11 Leganes home matches against bottom-half teams.
- Only 1 win came last match v newly promoted Mallorca in a match they were expected to win.
- LLLDLW at home (L-loss, D-draw, W-Win).
- 0-0-0-1-1-1 scored at home.
- Only clean sheet came last match at home.
- Not beaten a top 16 side yet.
- No away win.
- No win in 6 away.
- Back 0-0 pre match? Goal shy home side and away side without a win away.
17:30 - Celta Vigo v Getafe - 2.6 Celta Vigo
- 1st half outcome: Getafe have drawn the first half in 10/12 away matches against bottom-six teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 8/11 Getafe such matches. Celta Vigo have scored first in 12/16 home matches against middle-third teams.
- Only 2 wins came at home and were 1-0.
- 1-1-0-1-1-0 goals scored at home.
- Failed to score in 5 of their last 8 matches.
- Not played 11th - 17th at home.
- 3 of 4 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- 5 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- 3 wins in 4 matches.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Conceded last 5 away matches.
- Losses came v top 4.
- Both teams scored in all matches v 5th and lower.
- I like Getafe this season and with 3 wins in 4, I could see them outscoring Celta. Celta have failed to score in 5 of their last 8 matches. Celta failing to score 2 goals at home is another negative for them.
20:00 - Granada v Sociedad - 2.56 Sociedad
- HT/FT: Granada CF have had W/W double results in 3/5 home matches while Real Sociedad have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 trips to top-six teams. Real Sociedad have lost 9/11 away matches against top-six teams.
- 5th v 6th. Newly promoted Granada having a great start to their season.
- 4 consecutive home wins.
- Scored last 9 matches.
- 3 consecutive 1-0 home wins.
- 4 1-0 scorelines at home.
- 2 wins and a loss last 3 matches.
- Failed to score in only one match.
- No draw in 10 matches.
- Scored last 8 matches.
- Only one win v top 12.
- All bar 1 win came v 15th and lower.
- You get the feeling that Granada may be vulnerable if 1-0 is the best they can do at home. Lay them if they score first and cover the 1-0? Sociedad have scored in their last 8 matches. Do note, though that their wins tend to congregate around 12th and lower.