Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

See you officially at 14:00 today but there are some earlier kick offs I will monitor. Please make sure you join the back up Telegram channel at https://t.me/joinchat/TpJaD_0f3Qn74Xw5 to ensure an uninterrupted service until the main Telegram channel is working correctly.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:00 - Burnley v Fulham - 2.40 Burnley

  • As I keep repeating with Burnley, they are tightening up defensively and will be hard to beat. Heck, Leeds could only score one goal. Win, Draw, Win, Win at home. 3 of Burnley's last 4 wins were 1-0. Take away Man City, and Burnley have conceded 0-0-1-0-0-1-1-0 goals.
  • Fulham are going through a defensive revival themselves. 1-0-1-0 goals conceded latest in 1-1, 0-0, 1-1, 0-0.
  • 16th v 18th. 2 0-0's and a 1-0 win for Burnley v 17th and lower. Fulham have 2 away 1-1's v 15th and lower.
  • Angles? Defence v, erm, defence today. I am personally more taken by Burnley whose recent form is far better than 16th. I will enter the match expecting a score draw as best case scenario for Fulham.

14:15 - Newcastle v Leicester - 1.65 Leicester

  • Workload necessitates I research before the result of the Newcastle v Liverpool match is known. I assume a home loss.
  • Only 2 clean sheets for Newcastle all season. They have conceded last 8 home matches.
  • I assume a loss v 1st at home, add to a 1-4 loss at home v 2nd. They play 3rd today.
  • 6/9 goals scored by Newcastle at home came 2nd half.
  • 2 consecutive score draws for Leicester.
  • Their only away loss was v Liverpool.
  • 6 wins and a loss away.
  • 8 goals scored last 15 minutes away for Leicester.
  • Angles? I must be with the Foxes on that superb away form. Only Liverpool have beaten them. They are on a 2 match score draw sequence. Lay any late score draw.

16:30 - Chelsea v Man City - 2.37 Man City

  • This is too high profile a match for me to research. Sit back, enjoy, and play if you must via the in-play stats.

SPANISH LA LIGA

13:00 - Athletic Bilbao v Elche - 1.53 Athletic Bilbao

Ath Bilbao - 11th

  • 2 losses in 3 home matches saw them fail to score.
  • No draw in 7 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Only played 1 of teams 13th and lower at home, a 2-0 home win v 20th.
  • 8/20 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Elche - 16th

  • 6 draws and 2 defeats last 8 matches.
  • Vonceded first in their last 4 matches and did score in 3 of those matches without winning.
  • Not beaten a top 12 side home or away.

Conclusions

  • If Elche continue to fail to beat the top 12 home or away, then we must by default be with Bilbao. Bilbao have failed to score at home in 2 of their last 3 matches, resulting in defeat. Elche do concede first recently so that should bolster Bilbao's chances today.

15:15 - Alaves v Atletico Madrid - 1.55 Atletico Madrid

Alaves - 13th

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches, were both 2-1 and one was v Real Madrid.
  • Draw, Draw, Draw, Win at home latest. Kept Barcelona to a 1-1.
  • Have beaten 1st away and 0-0 at home v 3rd.
  • But not scored that 2nd goal at home v the top 16.
  • 83% of goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • 71% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Atl Madrid - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss came v Real Madrid. 10 wins in 11 matches.
  • 4 wins and that loss v Real Madrid last 5 away matches.
  • 10 clean sheets in their last 13 matches.
  • Not played 9th-17th away.
  • 6/8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 70% of Alaves goals conceded at home came 2nd half which fits in nicely with Atl Madrid's usual modus operandi. Keep it tight first half, score 1 or 2 goals 2nd half.
  • If Alaves do score, they have not scored that 2nd goal v the top 16 away so confidently lay them.

17:30 - Real Sociedad v Osasuna - 1.55 Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad - 3rd

  • 3 draws, 3 losses and a win recently for Sociedad.
  • Only 2 losses at home, one came latest v Atl Madrid and that is not a huge surprise.
  • 1-1 at home v 17th, 0-1 at home v 18th and play 19th today. They did beat 20th 4-1 at home.
  • 5/6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Osasuna - 19th

  • Only 3 wins came within the first 6 matches of the season.
  • Only 1 away win came 1st match of the season.
  • Scored 2 goals in their last 2 away matches without winning.
  • 4/4 defeats v the top 6.
  • 8/11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Only 3 wins for Osasuna, compounded by their 4/4 defeats v the top 6, should seal their fate today. Slight concerns for me that Sociedad managed only a 1-1 and 0-1 at home v 17th and 18th.

20:00 - Huesca v Barcelona - 1.44 Barcelona

  • Koeman showed a new tactic last match. You've got the world's best player, a player who is the difference in tight matches, so what do you do? You rest him, that's what you do! The CLOWN! Hopefully Ronald McDonald will have learnt from that draw last match and field a full first team.
  • Huesca have only 1 win this season and have scored 2 goals only twice and still did not win.
  • Huesca will be playing a packing defence if their 0-0 at home v 2nd and 0-1 loss v 5th is any indicator. They have failed to score in their 3 matches at home v the top 10.
  • 3 wins and 2 draws in 5 matches for Barcelona. Only 1 away match in those 5 was a 0-3 win v Valladolid.
  • Barca are yet to meet 16th and lower away and play 20th today.
  • I expect Barcelona to eventually pull through today but their form and worrying managerial decision making is a concern. 2+ goals expected of Barcelona today.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Dortmund v Wolfsburg - 1.57 Dortmund

  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches for Dortmund who have scored and conceded in their last 7 matches with this dire return.
  • 3 consecutive home losses for Dortmund.
  • They failed to score only in 2nd match of the season.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3/3 defeats v the top 7. 5th v 4th today.
  • 10/14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • The Wolf have only lost to 1st placed Bayern Munich and that came last away match.
  • 6 wins in 9 matches. They have only 1 away win and that is v Schalke so are poor travellers.
  • They have scored in their last 10 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Angles? Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Both teams to score has a chance here today. Dortmund are poor but the Wolf have only beaten Schalke away and that is poor stuff. I cannot personally trust Dortmund so need the in-play stats as a guarantor.

17:00 - Bayern Munich v Mainz - 1.10 Bayern Munich

  • Only 1 loss plays only 1 win.
  • Bayern have uncharacteristically scored and conceded in 11 matches this season.
  • 2 consecutive home score draws ended with a home win latest.
  • Both teams scored in Bayern's last 8 matches. They have scored last 13 matches.
  • Bayern have not had a 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 4-2-4-8 goals scored by Bayern v 14th and lower. 1st v 17th.
  • Only 1 win  for Mainz.
  • They failed to score last 3 matches.
  • 100% defeats for Mainz home and away v the top 8.
  • Angles? Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. If 0-0 after 20 minutes, back 1-0, 2-0, any unquoted Bayern in the halftime score market. We expect 3+ goals for Bayern. If 0-0 at halftime, back 3-0, 3-1, any other home score.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Inter Milan v Crotone - 1.20 Inter Milan

Inter Milan - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss for Inter came v Milan. 3 consecutive 0-0's at halftime saw 2nd half goals.
  • 7 consecutive wins, 4 at home.
  • Scored last 14 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in all matches v 9th and lower.
  • Scored and conceded all home matches v 13th and lower.
  • 13/17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Crotone - 19th

  • Only 1 loss in 4 matches. 2 wins in 4 matches.
  • No win away.
  • 2 0-0's away.
  • 4/5 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • 2+ goals expected of Inter Milan today who may concede as they have done v 13th and lower. They have a strong 2nd half scoring record.

14:00 - Atalanta v Sassuolo - 1.55 Atalanta

Atalanta - 7th

  • Wobbles due to European club competition and better judged on recent form. 2 consecutive home wins and 2 consecutive away score draws.
  • 2 losses at home v 9th and 11th.

Sassuolo - 5th

  • Unbeaten away.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 matches.
  • 2 losses came at home v the top 2.
  • 11 goals scored away 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I wouldn't be as dismissive as the market is of Sassuolo's chances. They are having a great season, unbeaten away and only beaten by the Milans at home. They have scored and conceded last 3 and that should let an improving Atalanta in. Solid since European club competition took a break, they have an air of confidence about them.
  • We could see both teams score. The question is whether you trust this revived Atalanta side if Sassuolo scores first given their unbeaten away record.

14:00 - Cagliari v Napoli - 1.44 Napoli

Cagliari - 15th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 4 draws and 2 losses last 6 matches.
  • Draw, Loss, Draw at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side home or away.
  • 4 goals conceded at home last 15 minutes of matches.

Napoli - 6th

  • 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score in those 2 defeats.
  • No draw in 7 away.
  • 4/4 wins away v 10th and lower.
  • 3/3 clean sheets away v 13th and lower.
  • 7/9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Napoli should win and keep Cagliari from scoring more than 2 goals.
  • Napoli goal scoring away tends to come 2nd half so remember that.

14:00 - Fiorentina v Bologna - 2.10 Fiorentina

Fiorentina - 14th

  • Only 3 wins. Beat Fiorentina latest but that was down to a Juventus red card.
  • 3 consecutive home 1-1 draws.
  • Conceded in their last 6 home matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away, albeit 4 matches, v 12th and lower.

Bologna - 13th

  • 2 losses and 3 score draws last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower.
  • 6/7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams have similar Challenge Table form making it hard to pick. Do note Bologna tend to score 2nd half away.

14:00 - Genoa v Lazio - 1.61 Lazio

Genoa - 18th

  • Only 2 wins came in the first and last matches of the season.
  • No win in 6 at home.
  • Conceded last 11 matches and last 7 at home.
  • 5 consecutive over 2.5 goals at home.
  • Not played 5th-15th at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • 7/10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Lazio - 8th

  • Only 3 wins in 8 matches. Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Win, Win, Win, Draw, Loss away recently, 3-2 loss v AC Milan latest.
  • Scored last 10 matches and last 5 away matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 100% wins away v 15th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Lazio's 100% wins v 15th and lower away is compelling isn't it and flies in the face of really poor recent form.
  • Genoa matches see goals so do not expect a 0-0. Big gap in form Genoa not met 5th-15th at home.

14:00 - Parma v Torino - 2.60 Torino

  • I will leave 2.6 the favourite to the in-play stats.

14:00 - Roma v Sampdoria - 1.44 Roma

Roma - 4th

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 home matches.
  • Both teams have scored last 4 matches.
  • 5-3-1-3 goals scored.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Led at halftime in 6/7 at home.
  • 100% wins home and away v 10th and lower.
  • 7 goals scored 31st-45th minute at home.

Sampdoria - 11th

  • Only 5 wins.
  • Both teams scored in 11 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Conceded last 10 and last 7 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 4/4 defeats v the top 6.
  • 10/12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Roma score a lot last 15 mins of first half.
  • 100% wins v 10th and lower plays 4/4 defeats v top 6. On form this should be a Roma win.
  • Both teams tend to score so remember the above point of Samp score first.

14:00 - Spezia v Verona - 2.25 Verona

Spezia - 17th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • No home win.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Hadn't scored a 2nd goal at home v the top 8.

Hellas Verona - 9th

  • Both teams scored last 5 matches.
  • 2 losses and a draw last 3 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 5 away matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • No win home and away v 14th and lower.

Conclusions

  • I have to be with Verona on form, unbeaten last 5 away - that's not to say they'll win. No win home and away v 14th and lower. Spezia are yet to have a home win and have scored and conceded so it suggests they may score but not win.

17:00 - Benevento v AC Milan - 1.57 AC Milan

Benevento - 10th

  • Newly promoted and could surprise.
  • Only 1 loss in 7.
  • 2 consecutive 2-0 wins.
  • Draw, Draw, Win at home. Draws impressive v Juventus and Lazio.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side. Both teams scored in all bar 1 match.

AC Milan - 1st

  • Are unbeaten and that will be compounded by the return of Ibrahimovic up front - check team news.
  • Scored and conceded in 10/11 matches.
  • 6 wins and a 2-2 away.
  • Scored every match.
  • 2+ goals scored last 14 matches.
  • 6/7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Benevento are in decent form but crucially have not beaten the top 9. AC Milan are expected to score 2 goals and that is likely to get them out of trouble. Both teams do score and certainly expect AC Milan to equalise of Benevento are leading at any point.

19:45 - Juventus v Udinese - 1.40 Juventus

Juventus - 3rd

  • Only loss came last match and was red card only influenced. No other reason.
  • Failed to score only there.
  • Have conceded last 3 at home.
  • 5 goals scored at home last 15 minutes of matches.

Udinese - 12th

  • Only 1 loss in 7 came v newly promoted Benevento.
  • Draw, Win, Win, Draw away.
  • No defeat in 4 away.
  • Not beaten the top 5 yet.

Conclusions

  • I don't expect a 2nd consecutive home defeat for Juventus unless they are hit by another red card. It should be a routine home win. Their loss to Fiorentina had them bossing the match but an own goal knocked the wind out of their comeback v Fiorentina.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

15:00 - Guimaraes v Nacional - 1.73 Guimaraes

Guimaraes - 5th

  • 3 wins and a loss in 4 matches. Guimaraes led twice v Porto latest but lost the match.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches at home.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • 3/4 home losses came v the top 4.

Nacional - 8th

  • 3 losses and a win last 4 matches.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 away matches.
  • Losses away v 3rd and 4th.

Conclusions

  • I like Guimaraes here based on what they did v Porto last match. They tend to lose at home to the top 4 and play 8th today.

16:00 - Santa Clara v Benfica - 1.44 Benfica

Santa Clara - 10th

  • 6 losses and 2 wins last 8 matches.
  • A draw and 3 consecutive losses at home.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • 3/3 losses at home v the top 5.
  • 5/7 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Benfica - 2nd

  • 10 wins and 2 defeats.
  • 3 2-1 and a 2-0 last 4 wins.
  • 4 wins and a loss away.
  • Failed to score only in that away defeat.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 matches. 100% wins v 6th-15th home and away.

Conclusions

  • 100% defeats at home v the top 5 and they play 2nd. It points to a Benfica win, scoring 2+ goals just as they have beaten 6th-15th home and away (Santa Clara are 10th).

21:00 - Porto v Moreirense - 1.20 Porto

Porto - 3rd

  • Good trading side last match conceding first v Guimaraes and scoring an equaliser before halftime.
  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 9 matches.
  • Fought from 1-0 down and 2-1 down last match to win so in good fighting form.
  • 5 wins and a loss last 6 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 100% wins v 8th and lower.
  • 7 goals scored last 15 mins of first half at home.

Moreirense - 9th

  • 2 draws and a win last 3 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4/5 away matches.
  • Conceded 2 goals v 1st and 2nd away.

Conclusions

  • Reliance on Porto again? Good profit makers for us last match and playing a Moreirense failing to score away and conceding 2 goals v the top 2, they meet 3rd today!
  • If 0-0 30th minute you might want to speculate on a Porto goal before halftime.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

13:30 - FC Eindhoven v Cambuur - 1.50 Cambuur

FC Eindhoven - 8th

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 at home.
  • All losses have come v the top 9.

Cambuur - 1st

  • 12 wins and a loss last 13 matches.
  • 7 wins and a draw last 8 away matches.
  • 7 clean sheets last 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.

Conclusions

  • Cambuur's away form is excellent and their keeping clean sheets should keep a lid on Eindhoven.
  • Eindhoven though tend to score 2 goals at home and even if doing so today, I will lay them.
  • lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on an expectation for goals.

19:00 - Volendam v MVV Maastricht - 1.36 Volendam

Volendam - 6th

  • Only 3 losses, one came last match.
  • That ended a run of 13 matches unbeaten.
  • 4 wins and 2 score draws last 6 matches at home.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • 100% wins v 15th and lower home and away.
  • 10 goals scored at home came last 15 minutes of matches.

MVV - 17th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 1 win in 12 matches came last match.
  • 4 losses and 2 draws last 6 away matches.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • Conceded last 12 and last 8 away.
  • Opponents have scored first in 7/9 away matches.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side home or away.
  • 12/17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market looks right here. Opponents tend to score first in MVV away matches so any trade may be negated here.
  • Only 3 losses plays only 3 wins.
  • 100% wins v 15th and lower for Volendam.
  • Volendam do score 75th+ minute goals so look out for late goals.