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https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/478609012066866957 is the link for today's webinar at 13:45.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

14:05 - Leicester City v Man Utd - 1.93 Man Utd

  • Research done before result of Leicester's mid week match with Liverpool (work load means early start).
  • New manager both sides.
  • I repeat, Leicester are known for their defence under new manager. Conceding 1-0-0-1-0-1-2(Spurs)-0-1-1-(Man City)-0-1-2-4.
  • Have they started to wobble. 2-4 conceded v Southampton and Wolves.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Loss at home for Leicester recently.
  • Leicester did beat Man City recently 2-1 at home so a threat is there.
  • Touch of the old Fergie era last match for United. 0-2 down, to 2-2 with 2 87th+ minute goals. Something to look out for?
  • Noticeably away from home, Man Utd have kept 2 consecutive away clean sheets. Is this a deliberate tactic because United under Ole tend to score and concede.
  • Will Leicester react to conceding 6 goals in 2 matches? It is most un-like them if it is symptomatic of holes in the defence, United can certainly exploit it. But note United were kept quiet for 87 minutes, at home, by the usually defensively astute Burnley.
  • An interesting game where I would still fancy United.

16:30 - Man City v Arsenal - 1.33 Man City

  • Well, that is a surprise. After cocking it up at 1.22 odds mid week v Newcastle, Man City are 1.33 odds today. Looks very short to me.
  • 4 consecutive City wins in head to heads, scoring 2/3 goals.
  • New manager Arsenal though.
  • Similar recent form. 3 losses, 4 wins both sides in recent matches.
  • 3 losses and a draw away for the Arsenal - is this the reason City are so short?
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home plays 2 away.
  • Arsenal's form away v the top 6 saw both teams score, and Arsenal score 1-2-2 goals without a win.
  • City's odds are very short. I am not sure why Arsenal are dismissed. On form, I can see it. Conceding last 11 away, scoring 1-2-2 v top 6 without a win. And that solid City head to head form?

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Augsburg v Mainz - 2.12 Augsburg

  • Both teams win their fair share of head to heads.

Augsburg (15th)

  • No win in 10 matches and in 6 at home.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 12 side home or away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.

Mainz (10th)

  • 2 draws and 2 wins recently. Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 matches losing only to Bayern, Dortmund and Leipzig. So it takes a good one to beat Mainz recently.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 6 wins and 2 draws home and away v 13th and lower.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On the seasonal form, I am with Mainz here. Yes they could score and concede but check out the calibre of the teams it takes to beat them recently.
  • They score a lot 2nd half so note that if in trouble first half.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the stats.

17:00 - Stuttgart v Freiburg - 2.26 Stuttgart

  • 2-2, 3-0 Stuttgart, 1-2 Stuttgart, 3-3 last 4 head to heads.
  • These 2 are bottom 6 so perhaps not a mach to dwell upon for too long.
  • 4 wins plays 5 wins.
  • 3 wins in 10 matches plays only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Not for me. In-play stats only.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - SPAL v Torino - 2.2 Torino

  • Torino are unbeaten in 3 head to heads.

SPAL (15th)

  • Only 5 wins.
  • Did win last match.
  • 5 consecutive home draws.
  • No win in 8 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (50%).
  • All home draws v 14th and lower.
  • 2 wins v 7th and 12th at home.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Torino (10th)

  • Only 5 losses but a general appearance of inconsistency.
  • Only 1 away loss v 5th. but 8 draws away.
  • 10 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A chance on Torino not losing today but not necessarily winning?
  • Strong 2nd half scoring stats for both sides. So if 0-0 at halftime, take that into account.
  • Only 1 away loss for Torino suggests a positive performance but inconsistency is a worry.

14:00 - Udinese v Fiorentina - 2.3 Fiorentina

  • 4 consecutive Fiorentina wins in head to heads.

Udinese (16th)

  • Only 4 wins, required clean sheets.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • Only 2 wins at home v 5th, 6th, 14th.
  • Scored 2 goals only once at home.

Fiorentina (9th)

  • Only 2 losses since 21st October but 8 draws in that time. 7 goals scored in their last 2 matches.
  • No defeat in 7 away.
  • Unbeaten away v teams below them in the league with 5 draws and a 3-4 win.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.
  • 67% of goals scored and 69% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Udinese look layable if scoring first.
  • Fiorentina are unbeaten v 13th and lower, albeit a lot of draws away. Faith in them not losing today?

14:00 - Genoa v Sassuolo - 2.52 Genoa

  • 2.52 suggests a tough match to call.
  • 0-0, 1-0 Genoa and 5-3 Sassuolo last 3 head to heads.

Genoa (13th)

  • Only 2 wins in 15 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 1-1-1-3-0-0 scored at home recently.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 win v top 16 at home came v 7th, 3-1 (we see those 3 goals above).

Sassuolo (11th)

  • Only 3 losses in 13 matches but only 3 wins in 13 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 14 side.
  • v top 14 away, conceded 2+ goals in 5 of 7 matches.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Only 1 win v top 16  at home plays a side not beating a top 14 side. You see now why the odds are 2.52 for the favourite.

17:00 - Inter v Bologna - 1.29 Inter

  • 2-1 and 0-3 Inter in the last 2 head to heads.

Inter (3rd)

  • Only 5 defeats, 4 were 1-0 and 4 losses were away.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • 7 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home ( 50%).
  • 4 wins to nil at home v 13th and lower.
  • 8 goals scored last 15 mins of home matches.

Bologna (18th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • No win in 11 away.
  • 2-0 and 3-2 away v 1st and 2nd.

Conclusions

  • A possible Inter Milan win to nil today. Even if Bologna score, Inter should win. Bologna have lost away v 1st and 2nd, conceding 2 goals at least.
  • Might get going 2nd half. So watch out.

19:30 - Roma v Milan - 2.34 Roma

  • Likely too high profile a match for us to garner any angles in. The 2 teams look well-matched.
  • This is usually the case in a top 5 clash.
  • 5 defeats v 4 defeats tells you that these 2 are in good nick.
  • No defeat in 5 at home plays no defeat in 5 away. You get the idea....
  • A look at the Challenge table reveals that Roma are in better nick at home than AC Milan are away from home.
  • 2-4 goals scored by Roma at home v top 13 sides and only 1 loss coming v 15th at home.
  • AC Milan have lost to 2nd and 3rd away and have not played 5th, 6th, 7th away.
  • If Roma continue with that impressive scoring, then I see them outscoring an AC Milan, who, remember, had trouble scoring that 2nd goal. They scored v SPal and Genoa twice, these are bottom 8 sides.
  • 60% 0-0's at halftime away for Milan so do not be surprised if they survive the first half unscathed!

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Villareal v Espanyol - 1.89 Villareal

  • Espanyol find themselves unbeaten in the last 5 head to heads.

Villareal (19th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • No win in 8 matches.
  • Both teams have scored in the last 7 home matches.
  • 4 draws in the last 6 matches a possible sign of improvement.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home (64%).
  • 82% goals scored, 67% goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Espanyol (15th)

  • 9 losses in 10 matches.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • Unbeaten home and away v bottom 5.
  • 90% of goals scored at home came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • These 2 are in poor form. Espanyol's unbeaten run v bottom 5 enough to side with them?
  • Only 3 wins plays 9 losses in 10 matches. Yikes.

15:15 - Real Betis v Atl Madrid - 2.24 Atl Madrid

  • 0-1, 0-0, 1-0 Atl Madrid's favour. Will it be as tight today?

Real Betis (8th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only their last match since 4th November 2018.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • Not played top 2 at home. Lost to 3rd at home, beat 4th at home.
  • Not scored 2 goals at home v the top 10.
  • 73% of goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Atl Madrid (2nd)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 6 wins in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No defeat in 18, scoring in last 14 matches.
  • Only 3 away wins despite just the single loss = 6 draws, 5 which were 1-1.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I cannot see Atl Madrid losing. Betis have not scored a 2nd goal at home v the top 10. Atl Madrid have scored in their last 14 matches, ergo 1-1 seems worst case scenario for Madrid.

17:30 - Eibar v Girona - 1.71 Eibar

  • 4-1 Eibar, 1-4 Eibar and 2-3 EIbar in the last 3 head to heads.

Eibar (10th)

  • Only 2 losses in 11 matches came away.
  • 4 draws and 3 wins last 7 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 5th-19th at home.
  • 14 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Girona (14th)

  • No win in 8 matches.
  • 2 losses, 3 draws, 2 losses.
  • Conceded last 9 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away (50%).
  • Only 1 win home and away v 13th and higher.
  • 10 of 12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The form points to Eibar not losing today. Unbeaten at home v 5th-19th. Simple angle in.

19:45 - Real Madrid v Deportivo Alaves - 1.26 Real Madrid

Real Madrid (3rd)

  • 4 wins in 5. Shock defeat v Sociedad.
  • 3 consecutive wins scoring 2 goals - a sign of recovery?
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • All clean sheets at home v the top 7 augurs well today.
  • 10 of 15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Alaves (5th)

  • A draw and 2 losses last 3 matches.
  • 3/3 losses away v the top 6, conceding 3 minimum and failing to score.

Conclusions

  • A chance for Real Madrid to get another win. Alaves, despite 5th, lose to the top 6 away without scoring and conceding 3+ goals. But note Real Madrid have 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home so confirmation required via the in-play stats.

SPL

12:30 - St Johnstone v Celtic - 1.35 Celtic

  • This is a reversal of Wednesday's SPL match. Result not known.
  • 3/3 losses for St Johnstone v the top 2 (Celtic 1st). 0-6 loss when Celtic last visited.
  • St Johnstone have not beaten a top 7 side at home.
  • Celtic are far worse away. Only 4 wins, albeit that pounding of St Johnstone.
  • Recent Celtic losses v Hibs and Rangers away.
  • Recent losses at home for St Johnstone were 1-2.
  • We expect a Celtic away win, in lieu of what happened in the head to head mid week. Best case for St Johnstone is a draw given they are yet to beat the top 7 at home.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 - Excelsior v Feyenoord - 1.31 Feyenoord

Excelsior (15th)

  • Loss and win last 2 matches post Winter Break saw Excelsior score 2 goals in each match.
  • Only 4 wins all season so very rare that last match win.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 6-7-3-2 goals conceded v top 4.
  • Did score 2+ goals in 6/9 home matches.
  • 17 of 25 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Feyenoord (3rd)

  • 2 losses, a draw and a win last 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 2-2-3-2 goals conceded recently.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 3-3-2-1-2 goals conceded away v 11th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Feyenoord may concede 2 goals today. Excelsior have scored 2 goals in their last 2 matches. Lay Feyenoord particularly if they lead 0-2. That's the value play.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based only on an expectation for goals.
  • If 0-0 after 20 minutes, back over 3.5 goals at enhanced odds.

13:30 - PEC Zwolle v Utrecht -  2.34 Utrecht

  • Utrecht are unbeaten in the last 10 head to heads.

PEC Zwolle (12th)

  • 2 consecutive wins included v Feyenoord.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime all season.
  • A poor record v top 13, tending to concede 2-4 goals in defeat but remember, that applied for the Feyenoord match PEC won 3-1!! An anomoly or a sign of vast improvement post Winter break?
  • 14 of 19 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Utrecht (6th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
  • All 4 away losses came v top 5.

Conclusions

  • No strong angle. Despite the win v Feyenoord, PEC Zwolle ordinarily concede 2-4 goals at home v the top 13. Utrecht are 6th. Utrecht themselves have conceded in their last 4 away BUT they have only lost v top 5 away.
  • Messy.

13:30 - PSV v Fortuna Sittard - 1.15 PSV

  • Only 1 loss for PSV all season. 2-2 and 2-1 since the WInter Break, not setting the world on fire. 2-2 was a shock as they were strong favourites.
  • All wins at home for PSV > 1.15 tells us that 3/4+ goals is expected (PSV have scored 3+ goals on 8 occasions at home.
  • Fortuna did beat Feyenoord away (3rd - PSV are 1st). But have conceded 2+ goals on 7 occasions away.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Solid home form may see PSV through. Value seekers see that Fortuna 0-2 win away v Feyenoord. Logically minded folk see that as an anomoly and expect a spanking for Fortuna.