Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, December 3, 2017

The pre-Champions League casualties are stacking up. Dortmund, Barcelona, Real Madrid, PSG, are 4 big names unable to win. No coincidence either. Minds are on other things. This is why I always mention pre-Champions League/Europa League. Man City are the highest profile pre-Champions League side. See you for a live chat 14:00 for the Italian Seria A.
The shortlist is at the DRT Facebook page. It was accidentally deleted yesterday. Hopefully it will not be deleted today. The eye-catching stats are in bold below.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

13:30 - Bournemouth v Southampton - 2.76 Southampton

  • A local derby of sorts and a market that does not want to form an opinion.

Bournemouth (15th)

  • Only 3 wins this season, 2 came within the last 4 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten the top 9 at home. Beat 10th placed Brighton at home.
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Southampton (11th)

  • 3 defeats in 4 matches now.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 3 losses in 4 away.
  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Only win away v bottom of the league.
  • Only lost once v teams below them in the league.
  • Not scored a 2nd goal in an away match.

Conclusions

  • If Southampton cannot score a 2nd goal away, it suggests laying Southampton if Southampton scores first.
  • Tough to call.

16:00 - Man City v West Ham - 1.12 Man City

  • New manager for both sides suggests head to heads are irrelevant.

Man City

  • It is basically the Raheem Sterling show at the moment. Midweek I put up a back of Raheem to score the 3rd goal at 12/1 at the Betfair Sportsbook and a back of Man City at odds of 13.5 (they were available at 20.00 and higher).
  • Up stepped my close showbiz pal, Raheem to score a late winner in the 3rd consecutive Man City match.
  • The genius that got David Moyes sacked from Man Utd and Real Sociedad is clear for all to see. His 3 games in charge has seen a 2-0 and 4-0 away defeat and 1-1 draw with Leicester. Those 3 matches saw a 1-0, 1-1 and 2-0 at halftime.
  • You get the feeling that if Raheem does not turn up, City's wins turn into draws. Pre-Champions League, the mighty are falling - Dortmund, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Paris St Germain all cannot win. Why? They necessarily have to shuffle the pack and lose cohesion. The Champions League also becomes an obsession above all else.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Hertha Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt - 2.7 Frankfurt

  • Hertha have won the last 2 home head to heads.
  • Hertha are unbeaten in 6 head to heads.

Hertha Berlin

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in the last 4 matches.
  • 2-2-1-4 goals conceded at home last 4 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 2 home defeats v top 4 teams.
  • No 0-0.

Frankfurt

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime - first and last played matches of the season.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 1 loss away v 2nd in the league.
  • 5 of 7 away goals scored came at home.
  • Scored first in 5/7 at home.

Conclusions

  • Hertha look great at home, but then Frankfurt have only 1 loss away v 2nd in the league.
  • Hence I suppose 2.7 the favourite.
  • The teams have strong both teams to score patterns. IS that something to rely on?
  • Lay any late 0-0.

17:00 - Wolfsburg v Mgladbach - 2.58 Wolfsburg

  • 2-1, 2-1 and 1-1 in Wolf's favour. Oh, no, they're saying, not another fecking score draw!

Wolfsburg (14th)

  • 7 consecutive score draws ended with a win and a loss.
  • Still scored and conceded in their last 9 matches.
  • Scored 3 goals in each of their last 2 home matches.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not played the top 4 yet at home.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side but had 3 away score draws.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Mgladbach (4th)

  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all bar 1 away match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 away loss.

Conclusions

  • Both teams really should score on form.
  • I would consider a speculative 3-2 and 2-3 correct score angle here. Why? Wolfsburg scored 3 goals in each of their last 2 at home. Mgladbach scoring 2 goals at least in all bar 1 away match.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Benevento v AC Milan - 1.42 AC Milan

  • No head to heads.
  • Europa League for AC Milan this week.

Benevento (20th)

  • All defeats.
  • Scored in 3 of their last 4 home matches.
  • 0-1 defeats v 8th and 11th.
  • Opponents have scored first in all home matches.

AC Milan (7th)

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches. 2 wins away in their last 3 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No draw in 7 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats v top 6.

Conclusions

  • Benevento I am sure will engineer a draw or a win at some point, but against an Italian giant with 2 away wins in 3 away matches (albeit the only wins in 9)? I am not so sure.
  • Further, AC Milan have only lost to the top 6 so logically really should not beat the bottom of the league.
  • Benevento have 0-1 defeats v 8th and 11th so do prepare for a rear guard action. They have scored in 3 of their last 4 home matches too but if scoring first, should be opposed.

14:00 - Inter v Chievo - 1.42 Inter

  • Inter have won the last 2 home head to heads.

Inter (2nd)

  • Unbeaten.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 6 wins in 7 matches at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home but no 0-0 at fulltime.
  • Scored first in 6/7 at home.

Chievo (9th)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 matches.
  • Not won at halftime away.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 4 defeats and a draw home and away v top 7.

Conclusions

  • Inter do not have a Champions League distraction.
  • Chievo tend to lose v top 7 and there is nothing to suggest that they will break that pattern. Yes they are scoring and conceding so that might be an angle in.
  • I will lay Chievo if Chievo score first.
  • DO not be surprised with a 0-0 at halftime but take on the 0-0 2nd half.

14:00 - Bologna v Cagliari - 2.08 Bologna

  • 2-1 Bologna and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Bologna (8th)

  • Only 2 draws.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 2-3-3 goals scored in their last 3 matches.
  • 2-1-2-3 goals scored in their last 4 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 7 goals conceded at home last 1/2 hour of matches.
  • Scored first in 5/7 at home.

Cagliari (13th)

  • No draw.
  • 3 wins in 5 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats v top 11.
  • Not scored a 2nd goal in a match v top 16.

Conclusions

  • Cagliari will have to break a season long pattern of losing to top 11 sides if they are to get anything here.
  • They have trouble scoring a 2nd goal so I would look to lay Cagliari if Cagliari score first, particularly with Bologna scoring 2-1-2-3 goals in their last 4 home matches.
  • Bologna concede late so you might want to lay them if they lead 1-0 late on.

14:00 - Fiorentina v Sassuolo - 1.62 Fiorentina

  • Fiorentina have scored 2 goals at least in their last 3 head to heads, going unbeaten.

Fiorentina (12th)

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 9 matches.
  • 2-1-2-3-2 goals scored in recent home matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 2 home losses came v top 6 teams.
  • Scored and conceded in 5/6 home matches.
  • Scored first in 4/6 at home.

Sassuolo (16th)

  • Only 3 wins came 2nd half.
  • 0-1 0-1 1-2 wins.
  • Only scored 2 goals once away and that was v 10 men.
  • No away draw.
  • Led only once at halftime away.
  • Wins came away v 13th and lower.
  • 10 of 15 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 5/7 away - that is interesting!

Conclusions

  • It does look as if Fiorentina should not lose today. They tend to score 2 goals at home and with Sassuolo scoring 2 goals only once away, if form is upheld then Fiorentina should outscore (or equal) Sassuolo.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Fiorentina do tend to score and concede so a win, you'd think, would require 2 goals.

19:45 - Sampdoria v Lazio - 2.12 Lazio

  • 1-2 Lazio and 7-3 Lazio in the last 2 head to heads.

Sampdoria (6th)

  • 3 defeats came away.
  • 5 wins in 7 matches.
  • 100% home wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in those home wins.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 12 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Lazio (5th)

  • Only 2 defeats v Napoli and Roma.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1st match.
  • All over 2.5 goals bar 2.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of the last 7 matches away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 2 losses came v top 4.
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This is another of those matches featuring 2 in-form teams.
  • 100% home wins Sampdoria. Only defeats for Lazio v top 4.
  • Both teams could score and help another over 2.5 goals match.
  • Apart from that, I cannot split the teams.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Leganes v Villarreal - 2.72 Villareal

  • 0-0 and 2-1 Villareal in the last 2 head to heads.

Leganes (11th)

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 12 team home or away.
  • Failed to score at home v top 10 sees 2 0-0's.

Villareal (6th)

  • Only 4 losses.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 away. 2 consecutive 1-1 away draws.
  • Failed to score in only 7 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Losses away v 7th, 12th, 14th and a win v 10th is muddling.

Conclusions

  • The market tells us this may not be an ideal match to trade.
  • And as I say with Villareal 'muddling' form away puts me off.
  • 0-0 is in play with leganes v top 10. But that is in contrast to Villareal scoring and conceded away.

15:15 - Getafe v Valencia - 2.44 Valencia

  • 2 consecutive 2-2 draws in head to heads.

Getafe (12th)

  • Only 4 wins, 3 did come at home.
  • 3 defeats at home came v the top 5.
  • Beat 6th and 7th at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches.
  • No draw at home.
  • 9 of 12 goals at home were scored 2nd half.
  • 5 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Valencia (2nd)

  • Failed to score only once.
  • In 5 of 6 matches, Valencia scored 2 goals at least.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • Scored in their last 10 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime.

Conclusions

  • Interesting that Valencia's odds are so high given their form.
  • Is this because these 2 tend to go hammer and tongs in head to heads? This is a derby of sorts I believe.
  • Getafe are highly likely to score and concede so lay them if they score first.
  • Strong 2nd half goals stats so fear not if 0-0 at halftime.
  • Getafe have lost to top 5 so really on form should not win tonight. What is the reason for the 2.44 Valencia odds? Injuries?
  • Both teams to score is a strong angle.

17:30 - Eibar v Espanyol - 2.42 Eibar

  • 3-3 and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Eibar (15th)

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Only 4 wins.
  • 2-3-1-0-2-2-2-2-1 goals before halftime in recent Eibar matches.
  • Only 2 under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 1st half.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Espanyol (13th)

  • 5 losses this season. 2 losses in their last 3 matches.
  • Not won an away match.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only played one teams 8th and lower away from home.
  • Only scored 2 goals away.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • If Eibar concede first, they will most likely reply 2nd half.

19:45 - Las Palmas v Betis - 2.28 Las Palmas

  • The home side has won the last 4 head to heads.

Las Palmas (19th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 9 matches.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • 12 of 17 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Betis (9th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not won at halftime away.
  • Lowest ranked team they have played away is 16th, where they lost.

Conclusions

  • You know that the world has gone mad when a team with only 2 wins, conceding 2+ goals in their last 8, and failing to score in 6 of their last 9 is favourite against a top 10 side!
  • Yes Betis form away is poor. They, too, are conceding 2+ goals in 5 of 7. Betis would be red hot favourites at home but a 5-0 loss v 16th away exemplifies why the market has gone with the home side.
  • Not a match which greatly appeals. I would note Betis have not had a 0-0 and I would not expect a 0-0 fulltime based on both team's recent concession rates.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:30 - VVV v AZ Alkmaar - 1.82 AZ

  • No recent head to heads.

VVV (13th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 3 consecutive draws and 2 consecutive score draws.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 2 of their last 4 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home and only 1 0-0 fulltime at home.
  • No trouble at home v teams below them, full of goals. 2-0-1-0 v teams above them. They only scored 2 after conceding 5!!
  • 11 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

AZ Alkmaar (3rd)

  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No 0-0 fulltime but 3 0-0's at halftime.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Getting in the faces of the big 4 this season (PSV, Ajax, Feyenoord, and it used to be Twente!).
  • Scored first in 5/6 away.

Conclusions

  • The odds do look rather generous for AZ Alkmaar. On a solid run of form, failing to score only twice and top 3. I cannot see how VVV can really trouble AZ today. VVV do tend to score 3 goals but v teams below them. They scored 2 goals v PSV but PSV scored 5 goals so see those as consolations.
  • Any 0-0 at halftime we can take on 2nd half. Overwhelmingly 0-0's at halftime do not tend to turn into 0-0 at fulltime.
  • This has the feel of a 'Liverpool 1.57 odds' match to me. A rather generous market.

13:30 - Roda JC v Heerenveen - 1.87 Heerenveen

  • 3 consecutive Heerenveen wins in head to heads, 2 of them were 3-0.

Roda (18th and bottom)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 1 home win was a 1-0.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • 1-1 draw at home v Feyenoord tells you more about Feyenoord than Roda.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • 3 wins came v bottom 3.
  • Opponents have scored first in 4/5 at home.

Heerenveen (8th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 came away v poorly performing Twente.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league and that includes 6 away matches so that franks the suggestion that they should cope with Roda.

Conclusions

  • Relatively high odds for this one again as Heerenveen are unbeaten away in the 6 matches played v teams below them in the league. Roda have just the one home win.
  • Roda should be opposed if scoring first today.

13:30 - PSV v Sparta Rotterdam - 1.16 PSV

  • 3 PSV in 4 head to heads. Sparta won in the Cup last year.

PSV (1st)

  • All wins bar an away loss v Heerenveen.
  • 4-3-4 goals scored in the last 3 home matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • 9 consecutive wins and 6 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • 11 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Tend to score first at home.

Sparta

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No away win.
  • Have actually led once at halftime away.
  • 6 goals conceded away at the beginning of the 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • With Sparta conceding 4 away to Ajax, the market expects similar today despite head to heads being a lot tighter.
  • PSV are likely to score first and negate any trade. If they have not scored by halftime, they could score quickly 2nd half as that is where Sparta concede the most away.
  • PSV are not Champions League affected so there really should be no excuses against an away team with only 2 wins.

15:45 - Breda v Excelsior - 2.28 Breda

  • Most recent head to head was a friendly.

Breda (17th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 at home.
  • Conceded in each of their last 6 at home.
  • Lost 0-8 to Ajax last home match so expect a defensive response today.
  • Only 1 win home and away v top 11.

Excelsior (10th)

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • No 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Do the vast majority of their winning away. 1-2, 1-2, 1-3 away v teams below them in the league.

Conclusions

  • I would have to favour the away side, despite both teams keeping only 2 clean sheets. Excelsior are happy travellers with 4 wins, a 2-2 and a single loss. They have scored 2+ goals away in 5 matches.
  • I would have to lay Breda if Breda scored first based on that Excelsior away form. Breda are conceding. But as I say we might see a lurch by Breda towards an ultra defensive set up. This tends to happen to teams after they have had a spanking (0-8 in Breda's case). That would be the one factor which skews the form and Excelsior expectation for 2 goals.