Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

An excellent day yesterday. You should have filled your boots. I wish I could have bottled up yesterday! 13:30 start today for the live chat webinar. It will be a short one, probably until 16:00 latest. I will be on Telegram throughout the day. If you can attend a live chat webinar, please do, because you get all of the shouts.
Zoom details:
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/81508107970?pwd=cUJhVExTRlFGMGpoYzlhZ2RuUHJ5UT09
PASSCODE : 783590
Meeting ID : 815 0810 7970

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:00 - Chelsea v Burnley - 1.40 Chelsea

Chelsea

  • New manager Mr. Thomas Tickle from the Mr. Men series so no research. His first match in charge saw a 0-0 v Wolves, a huge % of possession and in-play stats which really impressed. It augurs well.

Burnley

  • As I have said many times, they have improved defensively but...conceded 2 goals v Aston villa latest albeit in a 3-2 win.
  • That put to an end 5 1-0 results including a 0-1 away win v Liverpool.

Conclusions

  • It must be a watching brief under new management.
  • Match outcome: Chelsea have won 13/18 home matches against bottom-six teams while Burnley have lost by two or more goals in 6/11 trips to top-half teams. Chelsea have won the first half in 12/19 home matches.

14:00 - Leicester v Leeds - 1.85 Leicester

Leicester - 3rd

  • Unbeaten in 7 matches. Good comeback latest from 1-0 down v Everton saw a hugely impressive 2nd half.
  • 2 goals scored in 4/5 home matches and 2 consecutive 2-0 home wins.
  • No 0-0.
  • 1-4 win last head to head.
  • v 11th-17th at home, 4/4 wins.
  • Scored most goals in the last 15 minutes of each half at home.

Leeds - 12th

  • 1-2 win v Newcastle was not unexpected latest.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Win away latest.
  • No draw in 10 and in 10 away.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • 6-4-3-0-3 goals conceded away v the top 8.
  • Scored and conceded without beating any top 5 side.

Conclusions

  • I must stay with Leicester here and honestly, 1.85 is tasty. They are in excellent form, scoring 2+ goals. Leeds have goals in them v the top 5 but they tend to concede and get out scored.
  • Leicester are particularly strongest last 15 minutes of each halves.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Leeds away matches and +3.5 goals in 5/10 Leeds away matches. Leicester have won 6/8 home matches against middle-third teams.

16:30 - West Ham v Liverpool - 1.75 Liverpool

West Ham - 5th

  • 2 draws and 4 consecutive wins.
  • Draw, Draw, Win, Win at home recently.
  • 2-3 goals scored last 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • Scored first in 7/10 at home.
  • Not played 3rd-8th at home and have a 1-1 and 1-3 loss v the top 2.
  • 2-1 loss to Liverpool last head to head.
  • 8/11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Liverpool - 4th

  • A poor run of 5 matches without a win ended emphatically with a 1-3 win v Tottenham.
  • Liverpool are unbeaten v the top 9.

Conclusions

  • Liverpool's form took a significant step forward with a real confidence boosting win v Tottenham, seeing 2 of the big 3 forwards scoring (in fact all 3 scored but Salah's goal was disallowed).
  • This lurch into form leaves a question as to whether this is going to be replicated today away to a top 5 side in West Ham.
  • West Ham may keep it quiet first half but do tend to concede 2nd half.

19:15 - Brighton v Tottenham - 2.15 Tottenham

Brighton - 17th

  • 2 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 3 draws and a loss at home recently.
  • No win in 10 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, 2 at fulltime.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.

Tottenham - 6th

  • 1-3 loss v Liverpool latest ends a run of 4 unbeaten matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away with just one win.
  • All defeats have come v 3rd - 7th exclusively.
  • 2-1 win last head to head.

Conclusions

  • Tottenham should not lose on seasonal form. They do have a poor habit for scoring and conceding away so may allow Brighton a look in.

SPANISH LA LIGA

13:00 - Getafe v Alaves - 1.95 Getafe

Getafe - 13th

  • 2 wins and a loss last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 7 matches at home, 1-0 v Huesca latest.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home none at fulltime.
  • 0-0 last head to head. 1-0 wins at home v 17th and 20th.

Alaves - 18th

  • A draw and 4 losses last 5 matches.
  • Both teams scored last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • 2 away wins v 2nd and 16th.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 12th-17th.

Conclusions

  • No ultra strong form having me agree with the markets. 2 1-0 wins v 17th and 20th at home for Getafe who meet an 18th placed side unbeaten home and away v 12th-17th.
  • Match outcome: Getafe have won 7/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while Alaves have lost 8/10 away matches against middle-third teams. Alaves have lost by two or more goals in 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams.

15:15 - Cadiz v Atletico Madrid - 1.50 Atletico Madrid

  • This looks like my banker bet of the weekend. Atletico Madrid and the toothed assassin, Luis Suarez are even more lethal than they usually are.
  • Only 1 loss in 5 for newly promoted Cadiz came v Sevilla and it was an emphatic defeat.
  • 4-0 loss v Atletico earlier this season. Cadiz did beat Barcelona but for me that is an anomaly.
  • Only 1 loss for Atl Madrid came v Real Madrid.
  • The have conceded in 3 of their last 4 matches, albeit wins.
  • I really expect a Real Madrid and remember, they are reliable 2nd half scorers if they have been kept tight first half.
  • 1st half outcome: Cadiz have drawn the first half in 6/10 home matches and there have been -2.5 goals in 6/10 Cadiz home matches. Atl. Madrid have scored first in 8/9 away matches against middle-third teams.

17:30 - Granada v Celta Vigo - 2.62 Celta Vigo

  • The market cannot split these 2 so a bare minimum look from me.
  • Draw, Win, Win, Loss (v Barcelona), Win recently at home for Granada grabs my attention. 3-2-2-0-2 goals scored in those matches.
  • Granada have worryingly conceded 2 goals at least in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss for Granada v 4th and lower.
  • 7th v 10th.
  • 3-1 loss for Granada last head to head.
  • 3 losses and a draw for Celta Vigo latest.
  • A draw and 2 losses away recently.
  • All Celta Vigo losses, bar 1, came v the top 8 and they play 7th today.
  • They have only 1 away win v 9th.
  • Angles? How significant is it that Celta's losses all tend to congregate v the top 8. Granada have strange form. Pretty solid at home only losing to Barcelona recently and scoring 2 goals, but also conceding 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches. Welcome to the world of 2.62 the favourite! A slight nod for me towards Granada.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Celta Vigo away matches against top-half teams and they have drawn the first half in 8/12 away matches. Granada CF have scored first in 5/7 home matches against middle-third teams.

20:00 - Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao - 1.40 Barcelona

Barcelona - 3rd

  • 7 wins and 2 draws last 9 matches.
  • 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 at home.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 and last 9 at home.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • Only loss at home came v 2nd.

Athletic Bilbao - 9th

  • No win in 7 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • Conceded last 9 away.
  • 2-3 loss to Barcelona earlier this season.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • 11/14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • It was a great trading match last time these 2 met IF we kept faith with Barcelona and we should retain that faith today, solid recent run, keeping clean sheets and no defeat in 6 at home.
  • Bilbao have no win in 7 away from home.
  • Match outcome: Barcelona have won 14/20 home matches while Ath. Bilbao have lost 8/11 away matches against top-six teams. Ath. Bilbao have conceded first in 6/9 away matches against top-six teams.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Koln v Arminia Bielefeld - 2.25 Koln

  • 2 newly promoted sides. I hope I have shown you plenty of examples of newly promoted sides' matches having an air of unpredictability about them. Double that now as 2 meet each other here!
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 6/7 FC Koln home matches against bottom-six teams and +3.5 goals in 4/7 FC Koln such matches. A Bielefeld have conceded first in 5/8 away matches.

17:00 - Wolfsburg v Freiburg - 1.85 Wolfsburg

Wolfsburg - 4th

  • Only 2 losses came away v Dortmund and Bayern Munich.
  • 2 draws and now 2 wins last 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • Unbeaten at home and v 8th and lower home and away.
  • 6 goals scored between 15th-30th minute at home.

Freiburg - 9th

  • Only 1 loss in 10 matches came away v Bayern Munich.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 and last 4 away.
  • Not beaten the top 8 home or away.
  • 10/14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both sides in surprisingly good form will make this competitive as was the last head to head 1-1.
  • You might want to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market 15th minute based on the Wolf scoring.
  • Wolf are unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower and Freiburg have not beaten a top 8 side away. Competitive fixture with the Wolf not losing?
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Wolfsburg home matches and in 7/9 SC Freiburg away matches against top-six teams. SC Freiburg have lost the first half in 7/9 away matches against top-six teams.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Spezia v Udinese - 2.10 Udinese

Spezia - 15th

  • Only 4 wins,2 wins in their last 4 matches.
  • Won their last home match.
  • Conceded in their last 5 home matches.
  • 0-2 win v Udinese last head to head.
  • Only 1 home win came last home match.

Udinese - 14th

  • No win in 9 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 away matches.
  • Played 3 matches away v 13th and lower. 2-2, 2-3 win, 1-1.

Conclusions

  • When looking for good trading candidates, we need an element of reliability e.g. Zlatan Ibrahimovic playing up front for AC Milan!
  • We don't necessarily get that here. Spezia's only home win came last home match.
  • Udinese do score and concede and v 13th and lower (without losing). Something to note?
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 4/5 Spezia home matches against middle-third teams and in 7/11 Udinese away matches against bottom-six teams. Udinese have scored first in 8/14 away matches.

14:00 - Atalanta v Lazio - 1.75 Atalanta

Atalanta - 4th

  • A replay of the mid week cup match. 2-2 until an Atalanta red card.
  • No defeat in 10 and in 5 at home.
  • 2 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Only played 2 of the top 7 at home, a 1-1 v 2nd and 4-1 win v 3rd.
  • 1-4 win v Lazio earlier this season and actually took the lead when red carded mid week in the cup.
  • 7/10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Lazio - 7th

  • A draw and 4 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Scored last 15 and last 7 away.
  • Not played 2nd to 9th away and lost away v 1st and 10th.

Conclusions

  • Gap in form for Lazio may cloud the form. Not played 2nd to 9th away. They do score though, Lazio. Atalanta are in the better recent form at home, no defeat in 5 and in 10 home and away. I would favour Atalanta but do note this is the 2nd consecutive match these 2 have played each other.
  • Match outcome: Atalanta have won 12/17 home matches while Lazio have lost 6/9 away matches against top-six teams. Lazio have conceded first in 7/9 away matches against top-six teams.

14:00 - Cagliari v Sassuolo - 2.30 Sassuolo

Cagliari - 18th

  • 6 consecutive losses.
  • No win in 12 matches.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 home matches.
  • 3 consecutive failures to score.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No win in 12 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 and last 6 at home.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 16.

Sassuolo - 9th

  • No win in 3 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Both teams scored in the last 8 matches and last 5 away.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league but not met 16th-20th away.
  • 13/19 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I like Sassuolo's form v teams below them in the league but the market is only luke warm on Sassuolo today.
  • Cagliari are highly likely to concede. On seasonal form, we are with Sassuolo.
  • 1st goal: Cagliari have conceded first in 7/12 home matches while Sassuolo have scored first in 10/16 away matches. Cagliari have lost 11/20 home matches.

14:00 - Crotone v Genoa - 2.50 Genoa

Crotone - 20th

  • Only 3 wins came at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 matches.
  • Conceded last 9 at home.
  • No draw in 7 and in 7 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 4-1 loss last head to head.
  • Wins at home v 11th, 15th and 19th saw both teams score.

Genoa - 16th

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, 2 at fulltime.
  • Only 1 away win v 15th.
  • 10/14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Genoa have only 1 away win, Crotone's wins at home come v 11th, 15th and 19th so they'll feel confident. But Genoa are on a 3 match clean sheet run. No ultra strong angles.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 6/9 Crotone home matches and in 13/20 Genoa away matches. Genoa have drawn 7/11 away matches against bottom-six teams.

17:00 - Napoli v Parma - 1.30 Napoli

Napoli - 6th

  • 3 wins and 2 losses last 5 matches.
  • Draw, Loss, Win at home recently.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 0-2 win last head to head. Not played bottom 3 at home but beat them all away from home.
  • 8/10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Parma - 19th

  • 6 losses and a draw last 7 matches.
  • Only 2 wins all season.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • Conceded last 7 and last 9 away.
  • Only away win v 16th.

Conclusions

  • Napoli have the air of unreliability about them of late but have scored in their last 6 at home. They are letting teams score but can a team as poor as Parma take advantage? 6 losses last 7 matches.
  • Napoli have beaten the bottom 3 away so should cope at home?
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 15/18 Napoli home matches and in 10/10 Parma away matches against top-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 5/8 Parma away matches against top-six teams.

19:45 - Roma v Verona - 1.60 Roma

Roma - 3rd

  • All 4 losses came away from home.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • Led at halftime at home in 7/10 matches.
  • Have a poor record v the top 9 - no wins. But at home 2-2, 2-2, 0-0.
  • 3-0 loss to Verona earlier this season.
  • 9/12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Verona - 8th

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • Unbeaten away v the top 7.

Conclusions

  • This could be competitive. Look at Verona's record v the top 7 away, and the head to head, and indeed Roma's inability to, Chelsea-like, beat a top 9 side. Intriguing match.
  • We could see both teams score and the in-play stats will determine whether the market has this right. It is a wring of confidence from market makers despite Verona's form.
  • Match outcome: Roma have won 8/11 home matches while Verona have lost 5/8 away matches against top-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 5/8 Verona away matches against top-six teams.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 - Twente v Heerenveen - 2.15 Twente

Twente - 7th

  • Only 3 wins in 10 matches came away from home.
  • 5 consecutive home defeats included a recent 0-1 v VVV who have now kept 2 consecutive clean sheets and have a killer striker.
  • Conceded last 13 and last 9 at home.

Heerenveen - 9th

  • One of those mid week headscratchers. 3-0 v Feyenoord when they had failed to score that 2nd goal in 11 matches?
  • 4 score draws in 5 away.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away.

Conclusions

  • The Dutch Eredivise threw in a curve ball mid week with Heerenveen somehow finding 3 goals via a solid Feyenoord so I will have to watch this match via the in-play stats.
  • The stats suggest both teams defences are poor but then Heerenveen keep a clean sheet v Feyenoord? What gives?

13:30 - Feyenoord v PSV Eindhoven - 2.6 both sides

  • Leave this to the in-play stats. 5th v 2nd in the league. A high profile match.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 6/8 Feyenoord home matches against Big Two teams and in 12/15 PSV away matches against top-six teams. PSV have conceded first in 6/9 away matches against top-six teams.

13:30 - Willem-II v Emmen - 2.00 Willem II

  • The bottom 2. Reluctant to trust these 2.

15:45 - AZ Alkmaar v Ajax - 1.95 Ajax

AZ Alkmaar - 4th

  • 0-1 loss v Utrecht saw them end an impressive scoring pattern.
  • Another high profile clash and AZ had better remember how to score today.
  • That was only their 2nd loss all season and first failure to score all season.
  • Conceded last 11 and last 5 at home.
  • Have beaten 2nd and 3rd 3-1 this season.
  • 8/11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Ajax - 1st

  • Excellent trading side last match with a 1-1 to 3-1 performance, a 1.07 shot backable at evens!!
  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Scored in their last 15 matches.
  • Not played the top 5 away.
  • Conceded all 6 goals 2nd half away.

Conclusions

  • Gap in form for Ajax away v the top 5.
  • They do score and concede.
  • AZ will be a real tester for Ajax today so in-play stats for me. Ajax were excellent for trading mid week. But today's opponent is a little more accomplished.

15:45 - Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam - 1.80 Sparta Rotterdam

ADO Den Haag - 16th

  • Only 2 wins came away.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • No win in 9 at home.
  • Opponents scored first in 7/9 at home.
  • 6-0 loss last head to head.
  • No win home or away v the top 12.
  • 7/8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Sparta Rotterdam - 11th

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • 3 away wins and a loss last 4 matches.
  • No draw in 12 and in 6 away.
  • 100% wins home and away v 13th and lower.
  • 67% of goals scored and 70% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Sparta's record v 13th and lower is consistent and impresses. With Only 2 wins for ADO coming away, we should favour Sparta on seasonal form.
  • Strong 2nd half goals in Sparta's matches.