Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A look at some of the matches yesterday. And if you want to practice your trading, retrospectively looking at matches and goal progressions can help hone your decision making and ability to spot entry points.
  • 0-0 at halftime between defensive Italy Women and Attack-minded Holland Women. Did you think about taking this 0-0 on 2nd half. I did bias towards the Netherlands and they did win 0-2.
  • 1-2 Germany women v Sweden Women. What I did here was to back Germany +1 when the scoreline was 1-2 with a cover of the 1-2 by laying over 3.5 goals. It ended 1-2 so I broke even. My thought processes? The likeliest next goalscorer would be the Germans but I must cover the 1-2 given the importance of the match.
  • Dalian conceded first in the Chinese Super League. Research hinted that they could cope with Beijing. Indeed Dalian did equalise and push on here.
  • Chongqing match. I noted the research. If 0-0 at halftime, I'd expect a 2nd half goal at least. It came in the 49th minute. Thankfully 0-0 layers did not have long to wait.
  • Guangzhou - lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market came in, no worries, in the, erm, 44th minute care of a penalty.
  • Lay 0-0 halftime score market did not come in Hebei match but remember if you expect a goal before halftime and it's 0-0 at halftime, logically, we'd take that 0-0 on again 2nd half? Agree?0-2 ended.
  • Nice research Ilves match 'we must be with Ilves'. They conceded first. 9th minute goal should have you thinking HALFTIME MARKET. 1-2 by halftime.
  • HJK - I did mention vulnerability and conceding all home goals 2nd half. Did you speculatively lay HJK late on? 1-1 it ended.
  • RoPS red card did not see a goal from KPV so losing trade if you followed the rule - look for increased shots on/off and corners from KPV.
  • Laying Rosenborg if they scored first would have engendered a low liability. It was a penalty. 1-0 it ended and if you covered the 1-0, break even.
  • Ostersunds lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market did not come in.
  • If you layed Falkenberg after scoring first, then Elfsborg did equalise but....eventually lost 2-1 to a Falkenbergs penalty. Interesting that the market was 2.5 the favourite. Accurate in the face of my research suggesting Elfsborg were the far better form side.
I have researched a number of matches without knowing the pre-match odds. So conclusions are not influenced by what the market thinks. The African Cup of Nations looks tough.

AFRICAN CUP OF NATIONS (ACN)

17:00 - Madagascar v Nigeria - 2.1 Nigeria

  • 108th v 45th in the rankings.
  • 2/2 wins for Nigeria so only really a draw needed to qualify in top place in Group B.
  • Madagascar have only 1 point.
  • 5 goals in total conceded by Madagascar. Nigeria have 2 consecutive 1-0 wins, 73rd and 77th minute wins.
  • I must favour the Nigerians here. Keeping clean sheets versus a side conceding 2.5 goals on average this ACN.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, watch out. Remember those Nigerian late goals.

17:00 - Burundi v Guinea - 1.73 Guinea

  • 134th v 71st in the rankings.
  • The rest of Group B sees these 2. Guinea on 1 point and Burundi yet to win.
  • 2-1 and 1-0 losses for Burundi. All goals in these matches were 2nd half goals so if 0-0 at halftime here, remember that.
  • 2-2 and 1-0 loss for Guinea. Can Guinea score again? That may be enough for them not to lose in a match featuring 2 of the lesser lights in Group B.

20:00 - Uganda v Egypt - 1.81 Egypt

  • 80th v 58th in the rankings.
  • Group A sees Egypt 2/2 wins and Uganda on 4 points, a win and a draw.
  • A draw is all Egypt need really in order to qualify top.
  • Both sides have scored goals in the first half in all matches. I am not sure if that will continue today as they are playing the best opposition they have met in this competition so far.
  • An interesting match. Potential team changes for Egypt as this is a tournament so watch that, particularly if it is a big name.
  • Very similar results for both sides v Zimbabwe and Congo could see a tight one here. I would lay Uganda if they scored first given Egypt are at home and hopefully play THOSE attackers up front!

20:00 - Zimbabwe v Congo - 2.66 Congo

  • 109th v 49th in the rankings.
  • A suggestion that these 2 aren't going anywhere unless 3rd place has some significance (it did in the Women's World Cup).
  • Congo are yet to score but meet the weakest side in Group A. 1-0 loss and 1-1 Zimbabwe - very defensive.
  • Not a match which greatly appeals.

CHINESE SUPER LEAGUE

12:35 - Tianjin Tianhai v Jiangsu Suning - 2.00 Jiangsu

Tianjin Tianhai (16th)

  • Only 1 win was a 2-3.
  • 4 losses and 2 score draws last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime all season.
  • No win in 6 at home.
  • Not beaten the top 11 home or away.
  • 5 of 7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Jiangsu (5th)

  • No win in 4 away, scoring and conceding.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • Conceded in their last 9 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only win away came v 14th away.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 away.

Conclusions

  • I would expect Jiangsu to score today at some point. Indeed there is a strong both teams to score pattern for both sides so expectation for that today. A hint Jiangsu may cope with 16th today. Their only away win came v 14th.

12:35 - Shenzhen v Shanghai SIPG - 1.57 Shanghai

Shenzhen (14th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score last 4 matches.
  • Not played the top 3 at home.
  • Not beaten the top 11 home or away.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Shanghai SIPG (2nd)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 away.
  • All wins bar 1 draw home and away v 7th and lower.
  • Failed to score a 2nd goal away.

Conclusions

  • Looks very clear cut. We expect an away win today. We could even see Shanghai lead at halftime and fulltime as they are yet to concede a goal first half away from home.

12:35 - Shandong Luneng v Beijing Guoan - 2.3 Beijing

Shandong Luneng (4th)

  • Only 6 wins.
  • 2 draws and a loss last 3 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • Not beaten the top 7 home or away.
  • Not played top 3 at home yet.

Beijing (1st)

  • All wins bar a loss this season.
  • Scored in every match.

Conclusions

  • 4 wins away for Beijing have been only 0-1 so there is cause for alarm here. It is a precarious scoreline. Still they have only lost to 2nd in the league. If Beijing lead 0-1 late on, the value may lie in laying them. 0-1's a lot away and playing 4th in the league who have scored and conceded in their last 6 matches. Beijing do look sharp though. But Shandong have failed to score in only one match.
  • Beijing look reliable if Shandong score first. They came from behind to win last match.

FINNISH VEIKKAUSLIIGA

16:30 - Lahti v HIFK - 2.35 Lahti

Lahti (9th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only 3 wins. Did beat HIFK 0-1 earlier this season.
  • Scored in their 6 at home.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded at home came 1st half.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 10th. 4 draws though at home.

HIFK (8th)

  • Unbeaten in 6 matches, albeit 4 1-1 draws and 2 consecutive wins.
  • Only 1 over 2.5 goals match all season was  a 2-1 win.
  • Conceded in their last 4 away.
  • 1-1 or 1-0 losses away from home the only score lines.

Conclusions

  • We may see a draw here? 4 draws at home Lahti. 1-1 or 1-0 losses away for HIFK.
  • Unless you think these sequences will end.
  • Lay the first team to score? Back 1-1 pre match? Not the greatest teams in the world, nor from the greatest league!

16:30 - Mariehamn v Honka - 2.3 Honka

Mariehamn (7th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • 4 defeats in 5 at home.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 5 of 7 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • Beat Honka 1-3 away this season but a real anomoly. Lost at home to 2nd, 3rd and 4th.
  • All other wins came v 10th and lower.

Honka (1st)

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Only 3 losses.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • 8 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.only 1 away loss v 8th.
  • Conceded 2 goals in only that loss away.

Conclusions

  • What is with that Marienhamn 1-3 win against top team Honka earlier this season. Consider that, knowing that Mariehamn lost v 2nd, 3rd and 4th at home. I would have to favour Honka today not to lose.

NORWEGIAN ELITESERIEN

17:00 - Mjondalen v Viking - 2.25 Mjondalen

Mjondalen (14th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 2 losses and then 2 draws last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • Scored last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only wins came v 15th and 16th.
  • 9 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Viking (7th)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 2 losses last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 5 away.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten away v 11th and lower without conceding.

Conclusions

  • Mjondalen should not win today even if scoring. They are a good trading side in so far as we oppose them!. Viking are unbeaten v 11th and lower away. Mjondalen could see both teams scoring.

17:00 - Stabaek v Ranheim - 2.3 Stabaek

Stabaek (15th)

  • Only 1 draw came first match of the season.
  • Only 3 wins, 2 came at home. Did buck the odds last match winning away v Kristiansund who dominated the match.
  • Failed to score in 4 of those last 5 matches.
  • Unreadable at home. Beating 3rd and 9th, losing to 4th and 11th (0-1 defeats).

Conclusions

  • I will cut this short. I do not like unreadable teams. How do we know which Stabaek will turn up today?
  • Ranheim I must say are unbeaten in 3 v 13th and lower, albeit only 1 away match 1-3 win v 13th.
  • An unappetizing match unless you can spot those all important trading angles?

17:00 - Lillestrom v Tromso - 2.00 Lillestrom

Lillestrom (12th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 5 of 6 defeats came v top 7, 4 defeats came v top 4.
  • Scored 2 goals only once at home.
  • Not played 11th or lower at home.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Tromso (11th)

  • Only 4 wins but 3 consecutive wins now.
  • Only 2 clean sheets came last 2 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored in their last 6 matches.
  • All defeats bar 1 came v the top 7.
  • Scored 2 goals only once away.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lillestrom have scored 2 goals only once at home, Tromso only once away. So 2 poor(ish) sides.
  • Tromso are suddenly starting to win. 3 on the bounce. Is that enough to side with this momentum?
  • I would note if 0-0 at halftime. A high likelihood of a 2nd half goal.

17:00 - Bodo v Odd - 2.00 Bodo

Bodo (3rd)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 2+ goals scored in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • Scored last 6 at home.
  • Only loss v 4th at home.
  • Beat 1st 3-2 at home.

Odd (2nd)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • Not played the top 3 home or away.
  • Only 1 match away v the top 8 was a loss v 5th.
  • 13 of 18 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • These 2 are in good nick, only 2 defeats and that leaves me unable really to find a weakness in one side.
  • Add to this a big gap in form for Odd. They have played only one of the top 8 away, a 1-0 defeat. There is nothing else really to gauge them v the top sides away.
  • Elements you may want to note? Bodo have scored in their last 6 at home and scored 2+ goals in 3 of their last 4 matches. Is that enough to expect a reply should Bodo concede first?

17:00 - Haugesund v Valerenga - 2.10 Haugesund

Haugesund (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches came last match.
  • A loss and 3 consecutive draws at home.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only loss at home came v 1st.
  • Not beaten the top 6 home or away. Loss and 3 draws at home v top 6.
  • 5 goals in 7 scored at home came 2nd half.

Valerenga (5th)

  • 2 losses and a draw last 3 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side away. Sole away win v 10th.
  • 7 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Haugseund have not beaten the top 6 home or away. Valerenga have not beaten a top 9 side away.
  • One point to note. Strong 2nd half scoring for both sides. If 0-0 at halftime, remember that.
  • Otherwise, both sides are struggling to beat the top teams (that does not discount the draw).

19:00 - Molde v Brann - 1.83 Molde

Molde (1st)

  • Only 3 defeats, 2 came away.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in every match.
  • No draw in 12.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played the top 4 at home.
  • Not conceded a 2nd goal at home.
  • Led at halftime in 5/6 at home.

Brann (4th)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 away.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored in their last 6 away.
  • Have played 2nd and 3rd away, 3-2 loss and 1-2 win.
  • Scored and conceded in 5/6 matches away.
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 2 of the better sides in show here. We might see both teams score based on Brann away.. There is another of those cursed gaps in form. Molde have not played the top 4 at home.
  • Molde outside the top 4 are not conceding that 2nd goal...but Brann have scored 2 goals away v 2nd and 3rd.
  • So the waters are muddied for me by that gap in form for Molde. This is the first time they play top 4 at home today.

NORWEGIAN FIRST DIVISION

14:00 - Kongsvinger v Sogndal - 2.5 Kongsvinger

Kongsvinger (5th)

  • 4 wins in 6 matches.
  • 3 losses came away this season.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v the top 11.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Sogndal (8th)

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 4-0-3-4-4 goals scored in recent matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 win away v 2nd.

Conclusions

  • No wonder it's 2.5 the favourite. 4 wins in 6 matches played 4 wins in 5 matches. Kongsvinger are unbeaten at home and Sogndal have only 1 away win. On that basis, we're with the home side but  look at Sogndal's recent goal scoring - 4-0-3-4-4 goals. On that basis, do not expect a 0-0 in this match if 0-0 at halftime.

17:00 - Aalesund v Sandnes -

  • I researched this match early but I cannot find it, or the odds, at the Betfair coupon.

Aalesund (1st)

  • Only 1 loss this season came last match.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only loss this season came away v 4th.

Sandnes (9th)

  • Only 3 losses came at home.
  • 4 draws and 2 wins away.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's away.
  • Not played the top 3 away but note, have conceded 4-3-2-2 goals home and away v top 5.
  • Only played one of the top 7 away, that was a 2-5 win v 4th away.

Conclusions

  • If Sandnes are conceding 2 goals v the top 5....at home, then they will be vulnerable to conceding 2 goals today v 1st in the league.
  • Take on that Sandnes 0-0 sequence away. If 0-0 late on, I will lay it. I love taking these sequences of 0-0 on.

17:00 - Skeid v Nest-Sotra -


17:00 - Jerv v Sandefjord -

Jerv(11th)

  • Only 3 losses but only 3 wins = drawitis.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.
  • 3 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • Only played one of the top 6 at home, a 0-0 v 1st.
  • 3/3 clean sheets at home v the top 9.

Sandefjord


17:00 - Ullensaker v KFUM -


17:00 - Tromsdalen v Start -


17:00 - Notodden v Strommen -


SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

14:00 - AIK v Malmo - 2.55 Malmo

AIK (3rd)

  • Only 3 losses.
  • Did lose their last home match.
  • 5 consecutive wins prior to that loss.
  • Not played the top 4 at home.
  • Only home loss v 6th.
  • 6 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Malmo (1st)

  • 9 wins in 11 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • No defeat in 11 matches.
  • Not played the top 3 home or away. Draws v 4th-6th.

Conclusions

  • Two of the big guns and a big gap in form. AIK have not played the top 4 at home. Malmo have not played the top 3 yet so absolutely no clue how these 2 forms will play against the 3 best sides in the league.
  • In-play stats for sure here will determine my trading angles. It is a match I am keen to follow despite not having an immediate angle.

16:30 - Norrkoping v Sirius - 1.44 Norrkoping

Norrkoping (6th)

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only played 2 teams outside the top 5 at home.
  • Not played 5th-12th at home.

Sirius (12th)

  • Only losses v the top 8. ALL losses v the top 8 home and away.

Conclusions

  • I am not happy with the perceived gap in form for Norrkoping at home. Not played 5th-12th at home so how can we gauge them v 12th today. And what of Sirius exclusively losing to the top 8 home and away and playing 6th today. Are you taken with that as an argument to take on this Sirius side even if they lead?