There are lots of potential trades today but I cannot research the matches as there is nothing to research. My main focus is on the established Swedish Allsvenskan and Irish Premier Division.
There are some interesting friendlies with familiar names, and in-play stats will play a crucial role (e.g. in showing you yesterday for instance that the Hoff were utterly dominant - they did score first).
In-play stats is where it's at at this part of the season. The in-play stats pointed to a good few trading angles yesterday if you were with me @drtclub Twitter.
Tennis looks to be Finals day and I would err on the side of caution. Finalists are, by nature, the 2 most in-form players at that Tournament....unless you can find a weakness in one player, do not play.
14:00 - IFK Goteborg v Norrkoping - 2.34 IFK
- Norrkoping has won the last 3 head to heads.
- This is 11th v 5th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.
- Only 4 wins all season.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- 6 score draws in 7 home matches. No wonder IFK are a lowly 11th.
- 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
- No 0-0.
- Tends to score first at home.
- 3 consecutive defeats.
- Conceded in each of their last 7 away matches.
- Unbeaten v 11th and lower albeit mostly at home.
- No away 0-0.
- The first angle? If IFK are score drawing so often at home, it suggests we lay the team which scores first.
- Lay any late 0-0.
- IFK at home tends towards 2 goals in total.
- Statistically IFK are the most likeliest first goal scorers.
14:00 - Ostersunds FK v Halmstads - 1.49 Ostersunds
- 1-0 Halmstads in the last head to head.
- This is 6th v 15th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.
- Only 4 defeats all came away from home.
- Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 home matches.
- 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- Only 1 win was v Osterunds on the opening day.
- 3 draws in 4 matches - a bit more fight without winning?
- Conceded in their last 6 away matches.
- Scored and conceded without winning v top 12 sides away.
- Have conceded a huge 8 goals directly after halftime away.
- A definite match for the shortlist.
- Ostersunds may concede but not lose. That is a straightforward angle we can work with. Halmstads simply don't win despite scoring away from home.
- If a quiet first half, note Halmstads are extremely vulnerable right after halftime.
- Be with Ostersunds today even if they may concede first.
16:30 - AIK v Kalmar FF - 1.62 AIK
- 3 AIk wins and a draw last 4 head to heads.
- This is 3rd v 14th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.
- Only 3 defeats.
- Conceded only 1 goal in 4 matches v teams 13th and lower.
- Worryingly, have scored 2 goals in only 1 home match.
- Tend to avoid the draw.
- 8 defeats in their last 10 matches.
- 6 consecutive away defeats.
- Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 6 away matches.
- 100% over 1.5 goals away.
- There may be trouble ahead........AIK at home have real trouble scoring that 2nd goal. They do though meet a Kalmar side conceding 2 goals at an alarming rate away from home.
- Will that change AIK's fortunes?
- If AIK cannot score that 2nd goal, they will have to be careful because Kalmar has scored in each of their last 3 away matches.
- Value seekers will be laying an AIK lead in the vain hope that they continue to fail to score 2 goals in a home match. Others will note that in Kalmar, AIK meet a side which has a very leaky defence.
17:00 - Derry City v Limerick - 1.86 Derry
- 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads.
- This is 3rd v 7th in the Irish Premier Division.
- 6 defeats this season.
- 3 wins in their last 4 matches.
- No home 0-0.
- 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
- Scored and conceded in 6 of 8 home matches v top 9 teams.
- Scored 2 goals at least in 8 home matches.
- Only 3 wins in 14 matches.
- Scored in their last 5 aways.
- No away 0-0.
- Unbeaten away v 3rd-6th but inconsistent away form, losing to top 2 (no surprises) but then to 3 teams 8th and lower.
- Lay any late 0-0 would be my first eye-catching angle.
- Limerick's inconsistency away is a concern. Inconsistent teams are dangerous teams to trade!
- We may see both teams score today. There is history with these 2 (2 1-1's) and Derry tend to score and concede.
- I would take a chance on 2-1 and 1-1 today - note Derry scored 2 goals in at least 8 home matches.
Some good tennis trades yesterday on Twitter @drtclub and tennis has been a real boon while the football has taken a siesta. It looks to be Finals day in the tennis today and as logic tells us, the 2 most in-form players meet. This makes it hard to find any weaknesses! Proceed with caution. If you are taken by any of the research below, then go for it.
Leonardo Mayer v Florian Mayer - 1.57 Leo
- If I were you, I would back Mr. Mayer to win this match. Guaranteed 100% profit or your money back!
- 131st v 47th and yet again Florian Mayer the German is proving himself in his home tournaments (remember his superb 2016 German grass court run).
- This is clay and Leo is the favourite here. Is that because he is South American and clay is their bread and butter?
- Head to heads from 2013.
- Florian had a bit of luck yesterday (as did us 1.09 Kohl layers) as Kohl retired.
- On form lines, Leo's form is the better. He beat Delbonis who beat Ferrer and Khachanov, 2 players I hold in very high regard.
- This is a final and as you know I prefer plundering early rounds as inevitably the 2 most in-form players are here now.
- I would tentatively be with Leo today and consequently lay Florian if Florian wins the first set.
Ryan Harrison v John Isner - 1.41 Isner
- It's Finals day in Atlanta, a tournament big John won last year.
- Big John is 5-2 in head to heads v fellow American Ryan Harrison.
- Harrison won the most recent 2016 encounter in 3 sets, 2 of which were rather predictably tie breakers.
- Big John is yet to drop a set, and rather amazingly, yet to have a tie breaker here at Atlanta.
- Ryan has had 2 3 setters. He did actually beat Chris Eubanks in straight sets. I did not know the ex boxing champion had turned his hand to tennis. Kudos to him.
- Isner has the form and won in Newport in the run up to this so has the momentum too. I am with Big John here. We may see his first tie breaker today and that could ensure higher odds in-play for Big John which I would be happy to take.
- Head to heads suggest if Ryan is to take a set, it will be via a tie breaker.
Yannick Hanfmann v Fabio Fognini - 1.33 Foggy
- 262nd v 29th and another final.
- Hanfmann has done superbly to get here.but he has had to battle. 4 consecutive 3 setters tells us that he is layable if he wins the first set.
- We backed Foggy at 6 yesterday after losing the first set. Lord knows why he was at odds of 6. I suspect he may have called for the trainer. Anyway he won the next 2 sets and the match v solid yardstick Agut.
- 3 3 setters for Foggy meets 4 consecutive 3 setters for Hanfmann.
- I can only dream of backing Foggy at 6 today!!
Caroline Wozniacki v Katerina Siniakova - 1.36 Wozza
- Forget Kelly Brook and Rachel Riley, Wozza is the only woman I need!
- 11th v 38th.
- 2 straight sets wins in 2016 and 2017 for Wozza.
- 3 3 setters in 4 matches here at Inglorious Bastad for Wozza. You know the drill don't you? Back her at the highest odds you can get because she usually delivers.
- Siniakova has beaten 24th and 26th in her last 2 matches so will be competitive today. I am with the Wozza though.
Nao Hibino v Shuai Peng - 1.19 Peng
- I singled out Peng a few days ago here and she has continued to deliver.
- 80th v 37th.
- Peng is a China Woman in China and does tend to play well on the Asian legs.
- Hibino is lucky to be here I would argue. Krystina Pliskova retired in the round of 16. Similarly, another European player retired in Peng's round of 16.
- 131st and 242nd the players Nao beat to get here.
- 118th and 136th the players Peng beat to get here.
- Peng I would suggest is one of the highest ranked players here at Nanchang and I would have to be with here and be comfortable backing her at 1.6 or higher in play should that eventually come to pass.
Heather Watson plays at Washington today and is 1.08. I am not going to research WTA Washington yet as Heather is the only recognisable player on that Coupon.