Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook, see you on Telegram throughout the day and also zoom live chat at about 13:30. Please note I cannot simultaneously broadcast on DRT Facebook until I get some colleagues to find a solution so if you want to join the live chat, it is Zoom only.

Clive Keeling is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Topic: DRT live chat webinar for 2nd May 2021

Time: May 2, 2021 01:30 PM London

Join Zoom Meeting

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87638485435?pwd=UlB0ZjVFam85RkNBK1dldHg0WnJBZz09

Meeting ID: 876 3848 5435

Passcode: 629290


English Premier League

14:00 - Newcastle v Arsenal - 1.85 Arsenal

  • 16th v 10th.
  • Newcastle are 9 points clear of relegation.
  • Arsenal are 9 points shy of 5th spot so a European spot is achievable.
  • Newcastle are best judged on their post International break form where they have scored 2+ goals in 3/4 matches, drawn with both Tottenham and Liverpool, beaten a solid West Ham and Burnley. They have scored and conceded in those matches, so on that basis Arsenal will hold no fear.
  • Arsenal play Villareal in the Europa League before and after this match, further compounding the possibility of a good result for Newcastle.
  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches is poor form. Wins v Tottenham and Sheffield United.
  • Angles? The value is in opposing the odds on favourites Arsenal with possible Europa League distractions and playing a renewed Newcastle who are doing their survival hopes a great boost. 5 matches remain for Newcastle and it is almost job done for them. This gap to relegation zone is realistically going to keep them up. But after Arsenal, they play Leicester and a Man City who may have the title wrapped up. I look forward to a possible lay of Arsenal if they lead here today. Can the Geordies score 2 goals again?

16:30 - Man Utd v Liverpool - 2.60 Liverpool

  • I will leave this to the inplay stats. Great to watch and not necessarily to read pre-match.

19:15 - Tottenham v Sheffield Utd - 1.30 Tottenham

  • 7th v relegated.
  • Tottenham are 2 points shy of 5th spot, 5 points shy of 4th spot so still have unfinished business.
  • Tottenham have a new interim manager so looking at what they did under Mourinho won't work here. There may be changes. We did leave the Spuds with 4 wins and a loss v Man Utd at home.and only 2 losses in 9 v Arsenal and Man Utd. That form is not too bad, but the Special (at getting a massive payout for being sacked). One has gone now.
  • Sheffield United are down but spoilt the party for Brighton with a 1-0 win. There is always a danger that the Blades will play with the shackles off and buck the market but realistically they will find the Spuds tougher opponents than a stuttering Brighton

Scottish Premiership

12:00 - Rangers v Celtic - 2.45 Rangers

  • Tasty and I would slightly favour Rangers here albeit Celtic are improving under new management.

Spanish La Liga Primera

13:00 - Valladolid v Real Betis - 2.25 Real Betis

  • 18th v 6th. A win could take Valladolid out of the bottom 3. A win could help Betis retain a top 6 berth.

Valladolid

  • Since I wrote the above, other results have helped Valladolid move out of the bottom 3.
  • 3 consecutive score draws.
  • Only 1 win since 10th January.
  • Conceded last 16 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side but 1-1's v 4th and 5th. 2-0 loss last head to head.

Betis

  • Another case of drawitis. 5 consecutive draws. 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • Loss, Draw, Draw away recently.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away, only 1 at fulltime.
  • All wins bar 1 this season came v 10th and lower.
  • 13/18 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The first thing to focus on is to see this 0-0 sequence of Betis' end. 2 is a relatively long sequence and I tend to take it on.
  • Both sides are doing a touch of drawitis which is dampening their season-end. Valladolid have 2 1-1 scorelines v 4th and 5th to hold onto tackling 6th today. Betis would be keen to end a points-leaking 5 match draw sequence so lay any late draw. Betis wins tend to come v 10th and lower.

15:15 - Villarreal v Getafe - 2.00 Villareal

  • Pre-and post-Europa League for Villareal.
  • 7th v 15th. Villareal are one point off 6th spot and 4 points off 5th spot.
  • A 5 point gap for Getafe to the relegation zone is comfortable (ish).

Villareal - 7th

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Those 3 defeats were 2-1.
  • Scored in their last 8 and last 3 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 9 at home.
  • 8 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 12th and lower.
  • 1-3 win last head to head.
  • 2+ goals scored at home v 12th and lower.
  • 16 goals scored and conceded 61st-75th minute at home.

Getafe

  • Only 2 wins since 25th January 2021.
  • 6 losses and a draw last 7 away matches.
  • All defeats away v the top 9.

Conclusions

  • Villareal are well positioned to win here if they can continue their 2+ goals wins v 12th and lower at home. They may be distracted by the Europa League so watch out. Getafe need points but have only 2 wins since 25th January 2021.

17:30 - Granada v Cadiz - 1.91 Granada

  • 8th v 13th. Granada are 8 points shy of a top 6 spot and it is looking increasingly unlikely they will breach the top 6.
  • Cadiz are 8 points clear of relegation. Oh so near to guaranteed survival.
  • 1st goal: Granada CF have scored first in 5/9 home matches against middle-third teams while Cadiz have lost the first half in 6/8 away matches against top-half teams. Cadiz have conceded first in 6/8 away matches against top-half teams.

20:00 - Valencia v Barcelona - 1.40 Barcelona

  • 14th v 2nd.
  • 7 points clear of relegation is poor stuff from Valencia who are certainly a side who enjoy their  matches with Barcelona.
  • Barcelona have a game in hand over 1st place so a win here is a necessity.

Valencia - 14th

  • 3 score draws in 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home. Scored in their last 8 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 16/25 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Barcelona

  • 2 losses in 4 matches now. This is a must win match to stay on the coat tails of 1st in the league who currently have played one more match and are 5 points ahead.
  • No draw in 10 and in 13 away.
  • Scored in their last 25 and 12 away.
  • Have lost away v 13th and 15th.

Conclusions

  • What on Earth happened v Granada for Barcelona? They were appalling. This match is a must win v a Valencia unbeaten in 8 at home. I cannot call this one as matches between these 2 tend to be competitive.
  • Can you trust Barca to bounce back?

Italian Serie A

11:30 - Lazio v Genoa - 1.40 Lazio

  • 6th v 13th. Lazio are 6 points clear of 7th and 5 points shy of 3rd, 4th and 5th. Lazio have a game in hand over 1st - 5th so this is a must win to make that game advantage count. A win takes them to within 2 points of a Champions League spot.
  • Genoa are a worrying 5 points clear of relegation.

Lazio

  • 6 wins and a loss last 7 matches.
  • 10 consecutive home wins.
  • No draw in 17 and in 12 at home.
  • Scored last 16 at home.
  • All home wins v 12th and lower.
  • 1-1 draw last head to head.

Genoa

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches.
  • 4 losses and a win last 5 away matches.
  • Conceded last 5 away.
  • 6 losses and a draw away v the top 8.

Conclusions

  • Lazio's home form is so good and Genoa's poor form v the top 8 so poor that I expect a home win today.
  • Expect lazio to score if it is tight.

14:00 - Bologna v Fiorentina - 2.60 Fiorentina

  • 12th v 14th.
  • 7 points and 3 points respectively above the relegation zone. Unfinished business, particularly for Fiorentina.
  • 5 games left.

Bologna

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches came v Spezia.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win, Draw at home.
  • Conceded last 9 and last 4 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 0-0 last time these 2 met.
  • v 9th and lower unbeaten.

Fiorentina

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 9 matches.
  • Conceded last 9 away.
  • All away defeats have come v the top 11.

Conclusions

  • Relegation six pointer(ish) with the need greater in Fiorentina.
  • Both teams to score has a chance - look at Fiorentina. Bologna are unbeaten at home v 9th and lower and that may see them right here.

14:00 - Napoli v Cagliari - 1.40 Napoli

  • 3rd v 17th.
  • Napoli are 13 points shy of top spot.
  • Cagliari are equal on points with 3rd bottom and 5th bottom so 3 points is imperative and will bring Fiorentina and Spezia more into the relegation fight.

Napoli

  • Only 1 loss in 11 came v Juventus.
  • Scored in their last 21 and last 13 at home.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home.
  • All wins home and away 17th and lower.
  • 14/17 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Cagliari

  • 4 losses ended with 3 consecutive wins.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away, only one at fulltime.
  • All defeats home and away v the top 6.

Conclusions

  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • I must be with Napoli despite Cagliari's need for points. They tend to lose to the top 6. They are on a 3 match winning sequence Cagliari so a cursory look at the in-play stats.

14:00 - Sassuolo v Atalanta - 1.50 Atalanta

  • Atalanta have a game in hand over first (they are 3rd) and a 14 point gap to Inter Milan.
  • Sassuolo are 8th and 9 points shy of 6th.
  • With 5 matches remaining, if Atalanta win today, they retain an interest in the title albeit will require Inter Milan to lose all remaining matches. That ain't gonna happen! Inter are Champions all but mathematically.
  • 6 wins and a draw for Atalanta playing a Sassuolo putting together a 4 match winning run, the most eyecatching of which was v AC Milan.
  • 3 wins and a 2-2 draw v Roma at home for Sassuolo suggests they will be competitive.
  • Sassuolo have scored in their last 11 matches at home so expect a goal?
  • Sassuolo lost 5-1 last head to head and have lost to 1st and 2nd at home.
  • Atalanta are unbeaten away v 5th and lower.
  • Angles? Atalanta must win to keep their slip hopes of the title alive, at least mathematically. We are in for a possible both teams to score match here with, on seasonal form, Sassuolo not winning.

17:00 - Udinese v Juventus - 1.50 Juventus

  • 11th v 5th.
  • An uncomfortable 8 points above the relegation zone Udinese. Juventus are 5th. They cannot win the title but a top 4 spot is available with wins.
  • There are 5 matches remaining. A win for Udinese can help nail survival. Juventus have plenty of points available. Top 4 is a must for this team.

Udinese - 11th

  • 2 wins in 3 matches came away.
  • 3 consecutive home defeats.
  • 8 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home, 2 at fulltime.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side at home, failing to score in 3 of those matches but have scored and conceded at home v 2nd, 3rd, 4th.
  • 4-1 loss last head to head.

Juventus - 5th

  • Only 2 defeats in 12 matches. Last 3 defeats were 1-0 only. In all defeats this season Juventus failed to score.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 6 away.
  • Unbeaten away v 6th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Must wins for both sides. On seasonal form, Udinese tend to score without winning and Juve go unbeaten away v 6th and lower.
  • Strange results can happen at this stage but faith in seasonal form?

19:45 - Sampdoria v Roma - 2.40 Roma

  • 1st half outcome: Sampdoria have lost the first half in 10/12 home matches against top-half teams while Roma have won the first half in 6/10 away matches against middle-third teams. Sampdoria have conceded first in 10/12 home matches against top-half teams.

French Ligue 1

12:00 - Bordeaux v Rennes - 1.75 Rennes

  • 1st half outcome: Bordeaux have drawn the first half in 6/10 home matches against top-half teams. Rennes have scored first in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

14:00 - Brest v Nantes - 2.60 Brest

  • Match outcome: Stade Brestois have won 7/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while Nantes have lost 5/8 away matches against middle-third teams. Nantes have conceded first in 7/8 away matches against middle-third teams.

14:00 - Dijon v Metz - 2.00 Metz

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 12/14 Dijon home matches and in 14/20 Metz away matches. Metz have drawn the first half in 11/17 away matches.

14:00 - Lorient v Angers - 1.85 Lorient

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 5/6 Lorient home matches against middle-third teams and in 10/12 Angers away matches against bottom-six teams. Angers have drawn the first half in 7/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.

14:00 - Nimes v Reims - 2.20 Nimes

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Nimes home matches against middle-third teams and in 10/12 Reims away matches against bottom-six teams. Reims have drawn the first half in 7/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

16:05 - Montpellier v St. Etienne - 2.45 Montpellier

  • 1st goal: Montpellier have scored first in 10/20 home matches while Saint-Etienne have lost 11/20 away matches. Montpellier have won 5/8 home matches against middle-third teams.

20:00 - Monaco v Lyon - 2.37 Monaco

  • Match outcome: Monaco have won 9/13 home matches while Lyon have conceded first in 10/15 away matches against top-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 11/13 Monaco home matches.

Dutch Eredivisie

11:15 - Den Haag v Feyenoord - 1.33 Feyenoord

  • 1st half outcome: Den Haag have lost the first half in 7/10 home matches against top-six teams and they have conceded first in 7/10 such matches. Feyenoord have won 7/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.

13:30 - Ajax v Emmen - 1.11 Ajax

  • Match outcome: Ajax have won 10/10 home matches against bottom-six teams and they have had W/W double results in 14/20 home matches. Emmen have conceded first in 14/20 away matches.

13:30 - Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam - 2.30 Groningen

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 10/11 Groningen home matches against middle-third teams and they have drawn the first half in 6/8 such matches. Sparta R'dam have lost 6/9 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.

15:45 - PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen - 1.28 PSV Eindhoven

  • Match outcome: PSV have won 15/16 home matches against middle-third teams while Heerenveen have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 trips to Big Two teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 8/8 Heerenveen away matches against Big Two teams.