Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8984211060823644930
is the link for today's slower live chat webinar. Please register to attend. It looks like derby day in the Premier League. Roma v Inter adds to the high profile derby type feel. See you at 14:00.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:00 - Chelsea v Fulham - 1.21 Chelsea

  • It's derby day in the Premier League.
  • Chelsea have Win, Draw, Win, Loss in London derbies.
  • Last London derby a 3-1 loss to Tottenham.
  • 7 without defeat at home though.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home (29%).
  • 100% win record for Chelsea v 14th and lower home and away.
  • Only 2 wins for Fulham came v Burnley and Southampton, arguably 2 of the out-of-form sides.
  • 3-1 and 1-5 losses in London derbies to Tottenham and Arsenal.
  • The suggestion today is that we are likely to see a repeat of the above London derby scorelines from Fulham.
  • On stats, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Fulham may score so let's hope they score first.

14:05 - Arsenal v Tottenham - 2.66 Arsenal

  • Arsenal's only defeats came v Chelsea and Man City. They face another big boy today. Surely we don't have remnants of the Wenger era where they struggled v the top 5?
  • 1-1 v Liverpool means no win v 3 of the big 5.
  • That puts a context into the solid season the Arse have been having.
  • 7 wins in 8 for the boys from Tottingham. Only loss was a 0-1 v Man City.
  • A recent 3-1 home win v Chelsea had a tinge of pre-European club competition distraction about it (and post-International!).
  • Noticeably Tottingham have yet to play the top 6 away and 2 of their defeats came home v the current top 2.
  • A great spectacle. Dick Emery has worked wonders at Arsenal but obviously they still have that top 5 hurdle to overcome.
  • In-play stats today. Sorry I cannot make a call in the first North London derby for Emery.
  • Both sides have failed to score only once. Both sides are collecting losses v the big guns (albeit Tottenham beat Chelsea).

16:15 Liverpool v Everton - 1.44 Liverpool

  • Another high profile derby match where bookings points are likely to be high.
  • New Everton manager.
  • 1-1 and 0-0 last season. The market is heavily skewed towards the home side today.
  • Liverpool are unbeaten. Failed to score only once.
  • Liverpool not played 3rd-10th at home so a gap in form there and a context for the unbeaten home form which has largely come v 11th and lower. Everton are 6th.
  • Noticeably Everton have a 0-0 and 2 defeats away v the top 7. They are yet to play the top 3. They failed to score away v Chelsea and Arsenal. 0-0 best case for the Toffees today?
  • On form I'd have to be with Liverpool but remember the derby may see form thrown out of the window.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11am - Betis v Sociedad - 2.2 Betis

  • 4-4 and 0-0 last 2 head to heads.
  • Immediately for me, it takes a good one to beat Sociedad. 4 defeats v Eibar, Barcelona, Valencia and Atl Madrid.
  • Sociedad are unbeaten away v 15th and lower, scoring 2+ goals in all bar 1 match. They play 16th today.. A home side, Betis with 2 1-0 wins v 1st and 15th.They have only played one of the top 10, Sociedad being 9th so a gap in form there.
  • A concern here is that gap in form, for how do we know how Betis at home generally play v the top 10 when they have only played one of them this season.
  • Sociedad's away form really catches the eye and on that basis I would lay Betis if Betis scored first. Can Sociedad score 2 goals again?

15:15 - Girona v Atl Madrid - 1.86 Atl Madrid

  • 2-2 and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.

Girona (8th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 0-0 last home match.
  • Only 1 win at home v top 16.
  • Not played top 3 at home but lost 1-4 to 4th.
  • 7 of 8 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Atl Madrid (3rd)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Win, Draw sees Atl Madrid dropping points every 2nd game recently.
  • 3 consecutive away draws.
  • Atl Madrid have kept clean sheets away v 5th and 7th, 0-0 and 0-2 win. They surprisingly have not beaten 12th and lower away.
  • All 5 conceded goals Madrid away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Girona in decent nich. Yet to play the top 3 though and lost to Real Madrid at home.
  • If Girona score it is likely to be first half but then Atl Madrid yet to concede away first half. So who will out?
  • Atl Madrid form away is strange. Yet to beat 12th and lower but clean sheet draw and win v 5th and 7th away and meet 8th.
  • An interesting match. Draw worst case for Madrid today?

17:30 - Barcelona v Villareal - 1.26 Barcelona

  • 4-2-5 goals scored by Barca last 3 head to heads.

Barcelona (2nd)

  • No win in 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 11 matches. Another big team under performing (see Real Madrid, Bayern Munich form this season).
  • 4-5-3 goals scored last 3 at home .....and still lost the last match!
  • Scored every match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Draw at home v 8th, loss v 16th, draw v 18th and win v 20th. Poor stuff.Yet 100% win record v top 5!
  • Failed to score 3 goals at home only twice.
  • 18 of 26 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Villareal (17th)

  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
  • Not beaten top 6 away.
  • All wins this season v 15th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Barcelona like meeting Villareal but which Barcelona turns up today? Like Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, this giant has some very odd form. 100% win record v the top 5 at home yet, a draw, loss, draw, win v 8th and lower at home.
  • Barca are likely to score, and have averaged 4 a game last 3 matches.
  • Both teams are scoring and conceding. We may see Villareal get on the scoresheet.

19:45 - Alaves v Sevilla - 2.08 Sevilla

  • 1-0 Alaves and 1-0 Sevilla in the last 2 head to heads.

Alaves (4th)

  • All 4 defeats came away.
  • 4 wins in their last 5 at home.
  • Not played top 3 at home. Beat 5th and 6th 1-0 and 2-1.
  • 7 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Sevilla (1st)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Only 3 clean sheets , 2 did come within the last 3 matches.
  • Not played 2nd to 8th away.

Conclusions

  • To not see Barcelona or Real Madrid as the usual top 2 tells us it has been a strange season for the big guns. Barca are 2nd, Sevilla 1st.
  • A gap in form for Sevilla. Not played 2nd to 8th away. A match for in-play stats. Alaves great season but yet to meet the top 3 at home.
  • Note Alaves, if they are to score, tend to score 2nd half.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - AC Milan v Parma - 1.57 AC Milan

  • Not met since 2015.

AC Milan (5th)

  • 3 losses v Napoli, Inter Milan and Juventus. It takes a good'un to beat AC Milan.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in 2 of those defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only lost to top 3.
  • Beat 7th and 8th at home and play 6th today.
  • Scored 2+ goals in every home match v 7th and lower.

Parma (6th)

  • Solid season. Upset the market with a 1-2 win away v Torino recently. 2 consecutive 2-1 wins now.
  • Conceded in their last 4 away.
  • No away draw. Losses away v 2nd, 10th and 15th, wins v 3rd, 12th and 14th.
  • Have lost at home v 1st and 4th. If losing with home advantage, may be vulnerable v 5th today?
  • 5 of 6 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • AC Milan are finding it hard to keep a clean sheet. Parma upset the odds recently with a 1-2 away win v Torino and do have goals in them.It might require AC Milan to revert to their 2+ goals a match at home in order to get the win. Watch out then for that Parma goal and look for AC Milan to equalize if conceding. Parma inconsistent away. Loss v 2nd, win v 3rd. Loss v 10th, win v 12th. Loss v 15th, win v 14th. I don't like unreadable sides.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home for Milan but 50% for Parma who have scored 5/6 goals away first half. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Milan keeping only 1 clean sheet............ergo they will concede.....and it is likely to be first half?

14:00 - Sassuolo v Udinese - 2.1 Sassuolo

  • 0-1 Udinese and 1-2 Sassuolo in the last 2 head to heads.

Sassuolo (8th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower. 5-3, 3-1 and 2-2 v 14th and lower at home.

Udinese (17th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 was a 1-0 v Roma last match.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 away. Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
  • Only 1 away win v 20th.
  • 7 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Only 1 win in 7 plays only 1 win in 8. Yuk!
  • On Challenge Table form, I would side with Sassuolo. Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower, conceding plenty but scoring more! I'll enter the match with that expectation if Udinese score first.

14:00 - Frosinone v Cagliari - 2.56 Cagliari

Frosinone (19th)

  • Only 1 win.
  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home score draws.
  • No win in 6 at home.
  • The 3 draws at home came v 11th and lower.
  • 9 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Cagliari (13th)

  • Only 1 away win.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away.
  • 3 of 4 defeats this season came v top 6 sides.
  • Not played bottom 4 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in all bar 2 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Only 1 win plays only 1 away win.
  • On the barest of form (3 defeats coming v top 6 away), I would side with Cagliari tentatively. But 2.56 the favourite, we saw in the live chat webinar, makes for sometime unreadable matches.

14:00 - Torino v Genoa - 1.8 Torino

  • 0-0 and 1-2 Torino in the last 2 head to heads.

Torino (11th)

  • Only 3 defeats. Shock defeat v Parma latest at similar or shorter odds.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 home matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home (33%).
  • All 3 losses at home came v top 7.
  • 1-1-0-1-1-3 goals scored at home. They were undone v Parma with an inability to score 2 goals consistently at home.

Genoa (14th)

  • No win in 7 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Conceded in their last 8 matches and last 6 away matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats came v the top 9.
  • All wins v 16th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Only 3 defeats for Torino and they are not scoring 2 goals regularly at home. That puts them at a disadvantage if scoring. Note Genoa have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Genoa are likely to score today. Take a chance and lay Torino if Torino score first in the hope they stumble with that 2nd goal. Genoa's wins, though, have only come v 16th and lower.

17:00 - Chievo v Lazio - 1.55 Lazio

  • 1-2 and 5-1 Lazio in the last 2 head to heads.

Chievo (20th)

  • No win. 2 consecutive draws includes a 0-0 v Napoli.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • Conceded 2+ goals at home in each of their last 3 matches.
  • Only played 1 match v the top 8 at home ( came v 1st).
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 5 of their 7 matches at home.
  • Opponents have scored first in 6/7 home matches.

Lazio (4th)

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Napoli, Juventus, Roma and Inter Milan the only victors over Lazio.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 3 of 4 defeats came v the top 3.
  • All wins bar 1 v 11th and lower.
  • 6 of 7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Chievo are unlikely to beat Lazio today. 100% win record v 11th and lower for Lazio but a couple of 1-0 wins only.
  • If Lazio have not scored 1st half, expect them to score 2nd half. Chievo are layable if scoring first in the hope they will concede 2+ goals again at home.

19:30 - Roma v Inter - 2.74 Roma

  • 2-1 Roma, 1-3 Roma, 1-3 Inter, 1-1 last 4 head to heads.
  • Another high profile match very hard to call.
  • Roma's recent losses have come pre-Champions League. That seems to be a big distraction.
  • No play for me. A cracker to watch and better watched via the in-play stats. It does seem a Sunday for high profile derby type matches.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Leipzig v Mgladbach - 1.98 Leipzig

  • 2-2 and 0-1 Leipzig in the last 2 head to heads.

Leipzig (5th)

  • Only 2 defeats came 1st and last match. A shock defeat v Wolfsburg.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • 4 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not played top 10 at home.

Mgladbach (2nd)

  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Failed to score 2 goals in only 2 matches.
  • 10 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Loss v 7th and 13th, draws v 10th and 14th away.

Conclusions

  • Leipzig have not met the top 10. That really clouds the home form and gives you a context for them being unbeaten at home.
  • Mgladbach tend to score 2 goals, and away, but away is where they drop points.
  • If Mgladbach continue to score 2 goals, Leipzig are layable if scoring first BUT remember we simply do not know how they are v the top 10 at home. They meet 2nd today.

17:00 - Frankfurt v Wolfsburg - 1.93 Frankfurt

  • 0-1 Wolfsburg and 1-3 Frankfurt in the last 2 head to heads.

Frankfurt (4th)

  • 6 wins in their last 7 matches.
  • Scored in all matches.
  • 2 clean sheets ( out of 3) came within the last 3 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored and conceded v top 8, where 3 losses and a draw occured.

Wolfsburg (10th)

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches came v Dusseldorf and Leipzig ( pre-Europa League).
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not played the top 7 away.conceded 2 goals at home v 2nd, 3rd and 7th.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • More gaps in form. Wolf not met the top 7 away yet but can we infer, in conceding 2 goals with home advantage v 2nd, 3rd and 7th, that they will be vulnerable away from home v 4th today?
  • Favour Frankfurt.