It will be a more sedate live chat webinar this Sunday, more suited to learning. Saturday is straight in at the deep end.
14:30 - Fortuna Dusseldorf v Freiburg - 2.48 Dusseldorf
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 6/7 F Dusseldorf home matches against top-six teams and +3.5 goals in 4/7 F Dusseldorf such matches. SC Freiburg have lost 12/17 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- Freiburg have been threatening goals this season. 3 wins scoring 3 goals. They only scored 1 goal v Augsburg latest.
- Freiburg have scored in every match.
- Dusseldorf started brightly with a win but since then, 3 losses and a draw. They have scored and conceded all matches.
- Angles? Freiburg have scored 3 goals twice away. Dusseldorf are scoring and conceding and could be layable if scoring first. Please note 2.48 suggests a tough to call match.
17:00 - FC Koln v Hertha Berlin - 2.22 FC Koln
- 1st goal: Bottom-six promoted teams have scored first in 51% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15 while Hertha Berlin have lost 5/8 away matches against promoted teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 10/13 Hertha Berlin away matches.
- Both sides have just the single win. Koln are newly promoted. Noticeably Hertha's only win came v newly promoted Paderborn.
- Both sides are yet to keep a clean sheet. Neither side has had a 0-0 at halftime.
- Angles? Not a match which appeals to me. Both sides are in relatively poor form and Koln are newly promoted.
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
16:30 - Leicester v Newcastle - 1.56 Leicester
- Match outcome: Newcastle have lost 11/12 away matches against top-six teams and they have lost by two or more goals in 7/12 such matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 10/15 Leicester home matches against bottom-six teams.
- 2 new managers. Only 1 defeat for Leicester under Rodgers. Intriguingly, came v Newcastle under Benitez as manager. Leicester are yet to concede 2 goals under Rodgers at home.
- So far, under Steve Bruce away, 3-1 losses v Liverpool and Norwich and 0-1 win v Tottenham.
- Newcastle will have to strangle Leicester's shots on target here in order to get a result. On what I see, I am firmly with the home side today. Under Rodgers they look excellent and Jamie Vardy is back, happy, and scoring.
ITALIAN SERIA A
11:30 - Napoli v Brescia - 1.23 Napoli
- Match outcome: Napoli have won 10/10 home matches against promoted teams while middle-third promoted teams have lost 59% of away matches against top-six teams since 2014-15. Napoli have had W/W double results in 7/8 home matches against promoted teams.
- No draw for either side this season.
- Napoli were similar odds mid week and lost 0-1 v Cagliari. They play newly promoted Brescia and took Lecce to town 1-4. Brescia's 2 away wins were 0-1 v Cagliari and Udinese.
- Angles. What do we make of Napoli's mid week calamity? I see their comfortable win v newly promoted Lecce and expect similar v Brescia today.
14:00 - Lazio v Genoa - 1.48 Lazio
- Match outcome: Lazio have won 14/17 home matches against bottom-six teams while Genoa have lost 9/11 away matches against top-half teams. Genoa have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 away matches against top-half teams.
- Lazio's 2 defeats this season have come away. 3-3 and 3-1 losses away for Genoa this season. With Lazio 1.48 odds, the market suggests Genoa will likely concede 2+ goals.
- Both sides failed to score only in the last matches.
- Angles? Will Genoa concede 3 goals again today? Your answer will determine your angle.
14:00 - Udinese v Bologna - 2.62 Bologna
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 11/17 Udinese home matches and in 7/10 Bologna away matches against bottom-six teams. Bologna have drawn the first half in 5/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- A market suggesting that there are no strong angles here.
- Udinese have failed to score in their last 2 matches. Only win was a 1-0 v AC Milan. 1-1-0-0-0 goals scored by Udinese this season.
- Bologna have only 1 loss v Roma. 1-1, 3-4, 0-0 away from home.
- 2-1 win and 2-1 loss for Udinese v Bologna last season.
- Angles? No strong angles. But if Udinese cannot score that 2nd goal, this makes them vulnerable if scoring first.
14:00 - Lecce v Roma - 1.61 Roma
- Match outcome: Roma have won 8/8 away matches against promoted teams and they have won by two or more goals in 6/8 such matches. Middle-third promoted teams have drawn the first half in 51% of home matches against top-six teams since 2014-15.
- Lecce's 2 wins came away v Torino and SPAL. 0-1 and 1-4 losses at home v Hellas Verona and Napoli.
- Roma only lost their last match v Atalanta.That was the only match both teams did not score in.
- 1-1 and 1-2 away for Roma this season.
- Angles? Acknowledge that this is a newly promoted side playing one of the big guns. Expectation is for Roma to win, even if conceding first. Lecce are brighter away from home so far this season.
17:00 - Cagliari v Verona - 2.24 Cagliari
- 1st half outcome: Cagliari have won the first half in 6/9 home matches against promoted teams while bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 68% of away matches against top-six teams since 2014-15. Bottom-six promoted teams have lost 61% of away matches against top-six teams since 2014-15.
- A 0-1 away win v Napoli was an unexpected, but welcome, 3 points for Cagliari.
- 2 losses and now 3 consecutive wins for Cagliari.
- Their only clean sheet was kept v Napoli.
- Only 1 win for Verona came v Lecce 0-1 away.
- Verona are yet to score 2 goals this season.
- Angles? Cagliari are showing unexpected good winning form. With Verona unable to score that 2nd goal yet this season, favour the home side?
19:45 - AC Milan v Fiorentina - 2.2 AC Milan
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/9 AC Milan home matches against bottom-six teams and in 7/10 Fiorentina away matches against middle-third teams. Fiorentina have drawn the first half in 13/17 away matches.
- AC Milan have been poor this season and are returning to the goal scoring troubles which hit them last season. 2 wins were 1-0. AC Milan are yet to score that 2nd goal this season.
- 2 losses v Napoli and Genoa for Fiorentina, a 0-0 v Juventus then draw and win. Fiorentina have scored 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches.
- Angles? In the small sample of matches we have, I do fear for AC Milan if they cannot score that 2nd goal. It will need them to keep a clean sheet in order to win. With Fiorentina scoring 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches, AC Milan could be layed if scoring first. Take insurance on the 1-0 if you must.
SPANISH LA LIGA
11:00 - Espanyol v Valladolid - 1.94 Espanyol
- 1st goal: Espanyol have scored first in 9/12 home matches against bottom-half teams while Valladolid have conceded first in 13/15 away matches. Espanyol have won 8/12 home matches against bottom-half teams.
- Only 1 win each for these 2 this season. 0-0-1 goals scored at home by Espanyol sees 3 defeats.
- Both teams have scored last 3 matches.
- 1-2 win, 2-0 loss, 2-0 loss for Valladolid away from home this season.
- Angles in? None that I can see. These 2 look a tad untrustworthy, collecting losses.
13:00 - Eibar v Celta Vigo - 2.42 Eibar
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Eibar home matches and in 6/8 Celta Vigo away matches against bottom-half teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 5/10 Celta Vigo away matches against bottom-half teams.
- The market suggests no trading angles.
- Another match with just a single win for each side this season.
- 1-2 and 3-2 for Eibar at home. Eyecatchingly came back from 0-2 down v Sevilla to record that 3-2 win mid-week. Is this the shot in the arm Eibar need?
- 1-1 and 0-0 so far for Celta Vigo away from home. 3 draws in 4 matches. Celta are yet to score a 2nd goal this season.
- Angles? - Respect the market. It is usually right in these cases and suggests the match is too hard to call. How much do we read into Eibar's come-from-behind 3-2 win v Sevilla mid week at home? Are Celta vulnerable because they cannot score that 2nd goal?
15:00 - Alaves v Mallorca - 1.96 Alaves
- 1st half outcome: Alaves have drawn the first half in 7/8 home matches against promoted teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 10/13 Alaves home matches. Bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 67% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15.
- Both sides have won their opening match of the season but little else. Alaves have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Mallorca, newly promoted, have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Angles - oh Lordy. These 2 have trouble even scoring. Back 0-0 pre match? The market has Alaves as marginal odds on favourites. Enough to trust a side failing to score in 4/5 matches?
17:30 - Levante v Osasuna - 2.14 Levante
- 1st half outcome: Levante have won the first half in 3/5 home matches against promoted teams while middle-third promoted teams have conceded first in 53% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15. There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Levante home matches.
- Newly promoted Osasuna have only lost to Real Madrid last away match. A 2-2 v Barcelona was part of a run of 4 draws, and a 0-1 away win v Leganes.
- 2-1, 2-0, 0-0 at home for Levante this season so unbeaten at home.
- Angles - Osasuna may have trouble scoring that 2nd goal (2nd goal v Barcelona was a penalty) and that leaves them limited as to points winning scorelines. It also leaves them vulnerable if scoring first particularly as Levante have scored 2 goals twice at home.
20:00 - Sevilla v Sociedad - 1.76 Sevilla
- Match outcome: Sevilla have won 12/19 home matches while Real Sociedad have lost 9/14 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams. Sevilla have scored first in 14/19 home matches.
- 3 clean sheets in 4 opened up Sevilla's season. 1-3 goals conceded last 2 matches saw 2 consecutive defeats.
- 1-1 and 0-1 at home for Sevilla.
- 4 wins in 5 for Sociedad. They failed to score away in defeat v Atl Bilbao.
- 2-3-3 goals scored in their last 3 matches impresses v a spluttering-at-home Sevilla.
- 6th v 9th from last season. 5-2 and 0-0 for Sevilla v Sociedad last season.
- Angles in? Well Sevilla are unbeaten in head to heads but have scored 1-0 at home of late. Sociedad are in rare old form and scoring 2-3-3 goals. The market clearly favours Sevilla so thinks head to heads will frank the form today but you may want to keep track of Sociedad's shots on and off target today given their 8 goals in 3 matches.
FRENCH LIGUE 1
14:00 - Strasbourg v Montpellier - 2.6 Strasbourg
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Strasbourg home matches against middle-third teams and in 11/14 Montpellier away matches against bottom-six teams. Montpellier have drawn 5/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- Montpellier's 3 wins have come at home.
- 1-1, 0-2, 2-2, 2-1 at home for Strasbourg, scoring and conceding and not losing. When they failed to score, they lost.
- Only 1 clean sheet Strasbourg.
- 1-1, 1-0, 1-1 away for Montpellier. Yet to score that 2nd goal.
- Angles - as messy as the market suggests. I'll leave this.
16:00 - Nimes v St Etienne - 2.46 Nimes
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 5/7 Nimes home matches against bottom-six teams and in 8/12 Saint-Etienne away matches against middle-third teams. Saint-Etienne have lost 5/8 away matches against middle-third teams.
- Be warned. 2.46 usual suggests we leave this match alone from an ability to read perspective.
- 2 of Nimes 3 losses this season came away from home. 3-0 v Brest and 1-0 v Toulouse at home is good stuff. 2 consecutive clean sheets.
- St Etienne have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches, 4 defeats and a 2-2. 2-0-0-1 goals scored away by a really spluttering St Etienne.
- 9th v 4th from last season. 2-1 and 1-1 for St Etienne v Nimes last season.
- Angles? Head to heads are with last season's 4th placed St Etienne. Nimes are on a 2 match home winning sequence, keeping 2 clean sheets. No strong angles for me. St Etienne don't look like a top 4 side this season.
20:00 - Marseille v Rennes - 1.87 Marseille
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 13/18 Marseille home matches and in 6/10 Rennes away matches against top-six teams. Rennes have drawn the first half in 10/20 away matches.
- Only 1 loss for Marseille came first match. 0-2, 1-0, 1-1 at home for Marseille. They lost to a Reims recently beating PSG 0-2 away from home.
- Rennes lost to Nice and recently to Nantes. They started brightly with 3 wins, including v PSG. But no win in 4 matches has the market siding with Marseille.
- I have liked the look of Marseille this season. A nice trade last home match where they came from 0-1 down v Montpellier. Marseille only lost the first match v a Reims who recently beat PSG 0-2 at PSG so that looks good form from Reims.
- 0-2, 1-0, 1-1 for Marseille at home this season. A little shy on the goals. In total though, a 6 match unbeaten run.
- Rennes started the season as title contenders with 3 consecutive wins, including PSG. 1-2 loss, 0-0 v Brest, 1-1 and 1-0 loss to Rennes in their last 4 matches sees the wheels fall off.
- Angles? Rennes need a check via the inplay stats because they have no win in 4 matches now. Marseille are unbeaten in 6 matches but have scored 0-1-1 goals at home which is a little disappointing.
- Slightly favour Marseille today.
11:15 - RKC Waalwijk v Vitesse Arnhem - 1.45 Vitesse
- +2.5 goals: Bottom-six promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 64% of home matches against top-six teams since 2014-15. There have been +2.5 goals in 11/13 Vit. Arnhem away matches against promoted teams. Vit. Arnhem have scored first in 9/13 away matches against promoted teams.
- No win yet for RKC. They have conceded 3-2-3-3-3-6-4 goals this season and Vitesse should be licking their lips here. Vitesse have only lost v PSV. Noticeably Vitesse score more at home. They have scored 2-1-0 goals away.
- Angles? There should be no let up from Vitesse here v newly promoted RKC. 3 goals could be on Vitesse's radar?
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market given RKC concede so heavily.
13:30 - PEC Zwolle v PSV - 1.29 PSV
- 2 wins in 3 matches for PEC were the only 2 wins.
- 1-3, 2-2, 6-2 at home for PEC is interesting. Noticeably they lost to Utrecht 3-1 and Vitesse 3-0, albeit away from home. But it is noticeable that an increase in quality of opponents sees 3 goals conceded.
- PSV are unbeaten with 5 wins in their last 6 matches.
- 1-1, 0-2, 1-3, away for PSV. 3 goals last away match.
- Angles? I think PEC are vulnerable to 2/3+ goals from PSV today. It is noticeable that quality sides such as Vitesse and Utrecht scored 3 goals v PEC.
13:30 - FC Utrecht v Willem II - 1.62 FC Utrecht
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 14/18 Utrecht home matches and +3.5 goals in 8/10 Willem II away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 5/8 Utrecht home matches against top-six teams.
- No draw for Willem II this season. Only 1 Willem clean sheet came last match.
- Utrecht have scored and conceded in all matches. 3-1, 1-2, 3-1 for Utrecht at home this season. Their losses came v VVV and Twente.
- Noticeably those Willem II wins have come v the current bottom 8 sides.
- Angles? Both teams have scored in all Utrecht matches and in all Willem II away matches. The market favours Utrecht today who can be free-scoring against the right opponent. Interesting head to heads last season. 0-1 and 0-1 loss and win when Utrecht met Willem II in 2018/2019 season.
15:45 - AZ Alkmaar v Heracles - 1.4 AZ
- Match outcome: AZ Alkmaar have won 10/12 home matches against top half non-Big Two teams while H Almelo have lost 12/15 away matches against top-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 14/19 H Almelo away matches.
- Only 1 loss for AZ this season came v Vitesse Arnhem. 4-0, 0-0, 5-1 at home. Solid enough and keeping sides low scoring. In fact that Vitesse 2 goal win was the only time that AZ have conceded 2 goals this season.
- No clean sheets for Heracles this season. In 5 of their last 6 matches, both teams scored. 3 consecutive wins. 1-1, 1-2, 2-3 away for Heracles this season.
- 2-1 win and 3-2 loss when AZ met Heracles last season.
- Angles? - The market is firmly with the home side who have conceded 2 goals only once this season against a Heracles with 3 consecutive wins. Both teams scored in head to heads last season. Will AZ's defence do its work today? 3-2-1 goals scored away by Heracles this season. Remember that Heracles are yet to keep a clean sheet so there may be an angle here.
15:45 - Feyenoord v FC Twente - 1.6 Feyenoord
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/12 Feyenoord home matches. Top-six promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 62% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15. Feyenoord have won 14/20 home matches.
- Both sides' sole losses this season came in their last matches.
- Only 2 wins for a very tradeable Feyenoord came v Willem II and ADO Den Haag. The 3-3 v Emmen was great. Feyenoord led 0-2, 2-2 it became, 3-2 to Emmen, Emmen red card, 90th minute Feyenoord equalizer for a lovely 1.07 lay.
- Great season for Twente on the return to the league they feel they belong in. They have started hitting a solid goal scoring sequence of 3-3-0-3-3-2 goals. That may be enough to rattle Feyenoord's cages.
- Angles? The last time Feyenoord were priced this short they did beat Willem II but I think that their odds are far too short for me v a Twente who have a goal threat. I am happy to lay Feyenoord if they lead (even shorter odds) but with one eye on the in-play stats. When they were this short v Willem II, Feyenoord did justify the odds with their strong in-play stats.
PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA
18:00 - Portimonense v Braga - 2.08 Braga
- Both sides have only 1 win all season.
- At home, Portimonense have already met 2 of the big 4, 1-3 loss and 2-3 loss.
- In those 2 matches, Portimonense conceded 2 goals in the first half. Braga are 4th best of the big 4.
- They have only 1 win. 2 of their losses came v the big 3. 1-1-0 goals scored away v Braga.
- Angles? Braga are not reliable yet. Normally I would trust this top 4 side to win/draw. Will Portimonense concede as they have done v the big 3 already at home (2 goals in the first half)?
20:00 - Rio Ave v Porto - 1.56 Porto
- Porto lost the first match of the season but won the rest. 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Rio Ave's highlight this season was a 2-3 win v Sporting Lisbon.Porto scored 2+ goals in their wins this season and will need to do same if the Rio Ave who played Sporting Lisbon turn up today.
- Angles? An interesting match sees Rio Ave score and conceded in all home matches but they are yet to play the top 3 at home. They did beat Sporting away. If Porto score 2 goals again, that should be enough.
14:00 - IFK Goteborg v Hacken - 2.58 IFK
- Only 5 defeats.
- 2 defeats last 3 away matches.
- Unbeaten in 6 at home.
- Only 1 home loss was a 0-1.
- 0-0 at home v 3rd. 4th and 7th.
- 1-2 win v Hacken earlier this season.
- Disappointed mid week in not coming from behind a 2nd time v Elfsborg.
- No defeat in 3 away.
- Scored last 8.
- 7 0-0's at halftime away and only 1 at fulltime.
- All wins bar 1 have come v 8th and lower.
- 12 of 16 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- IFK have only 1 loss at home. Hacken tend to win v 8th and lower.
- You may want to back 0-0 pre match. Look at the 0-0's for IFK v 3rd, 4th and 7th.
14:00 - Elfsborg v AIK - 1.8 AIK
- Unexpected win v Hacken mid week.
- Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Conceded last 13 matches.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home (50%).
- Home defeats came v 1st and 3rd.
- 3-0 loss v AIK earlier this season.
- Failed to score 2 goals at home v the top 7.
- 9 of 12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- 9 wins last 11 matches.
- 5 wins and a loss last 6 away.
- Scored last 11 and last 9 away.
- 50% 0-0 at halftime away.
- Losses away v 4th, 6th and 8th.
- 15 of 20 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- If Elf cannot score that 2nd goal at home v the top 7, lay them if they score first. AIK have scored last 9 away.
- Strong 2nd half goals both sides so lay any 0-0 you see second half.
14:00 - Sundsvall v Sirius - 2.46 Sundsvall
- A market suggesting caution.
- Only 3 wins all season. Won their last match.
- 5 losses in 6 at home.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- No win in 9 at home.
- Conceded last 6 at home.
- 2+ goals conceded last 3 at home.
- 2 home wins came v 2nd and 14th.
- 1-0 loss to Sirius earlier this season.
- Only 1 win in 12 matches.
- No win in 6 away.
- Conceded last 6 away.
- Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.
- Is the key to this match the fact that Sirius are unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower? Or do we remember they have only 1 win in 12 matches. Sundsvall though have only 3 wins all season. They did win their last match but the probability of them putting together a winning sequence based on what we know is slim. Would you agree?
16:30 - Falkenbergs v Norrkoping - 1.47 Norrkoping
- Only 4 wins all season.
- Won their last home match 1-0.
- Not beaten a top 7 side home or away.
- 4-3 loss v Falkenbergs earlier this season.
- 5 wins in 6 matches.
- 1-0 loss v Malmo last away match.
- 7 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Failed to score in their last 5 matches.
- 3 away losses v 3rd, 10th, 13th.
- 9 of 12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- Falkenbergs tend to come alive v 6th and lower at home. They start winning v 8th and lower but meet 7th today.
- Norrkoping have been excellent defensively this season and I think that may quash any Falkenbergs win today. Norrkoping's clean sheets should stop Falkenbergs from scoring 2+ goals today.
16:30 - AFC Utd v Malmo FF - 1.27 Malmo
- 1st goal: AFC United have conceded first in 6/11 home matches while Malmo FF have won 7/8 away matches against bottom-six teams. Malmo FF have had W/W double results in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
AFC United (16th)
- Only 3 wins.
- 6 losses and a draw last 7 matches.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- 2+ goals conceded last 7 matches and last 4 at home.
- Conceded last 12 matches and last 8 at home.
- Not beaten a top 6 side home or away.
- 16 of 22 goals conceded at home came 1st half.
- Only 2 defeats.
- 4 consecutive wins to nil.
- 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- No defeat in 11 away.
- 8 0-0's at halftime away and only 3 at fulltime.
- Did lose to 15th away.
- It looks as obvious as the market suggests. AFC are liable to conceding 2 goals at least.
- No surprise to see a 0-0 at halftime, but expect 2nd half goals.