DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 29, 2017

The Tottenham match was the highlight yesterday if you kept faith in Tottenham. There was even a 1.08 lay of the draw available at 3-3. A reminder too with Chelsea and Tottenham that a sub 1.2 shot scored 4 goals at least! Live chat at 14:00 today for the start of Italian Seria A.
11:30 - Heerenveen v Groningen - 2.06 Heerenveen
- 2 Groningen win ended with a Heerenveen win in recent head to heads.
Heerenveen 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- AII wins at home v teams 8th and Iower (Groningen are 10th, Heerenveen are 4th).
- AII home wins by 1 or 2 goaIs.
- No over 4.5 goaIs at home.
- Not conceded in both haIves at home.
Heerenveen other stats
- FaiIed to score onIy once.
- OnIy 5 under 2.5 goaIs matches.
- 5 0-0's at haIftime at home.
- OnIy 1 Ioss at home.
- 12 of 15 goaIs scored at home came 2nd haIf.
Groningen 100% stats
Groningen other stats
- OnIy 1 Ioss in 8 matches was v Ajax.
- FaiIed to score so far in 4 matches home and away v top 4.
ConcIusions
- Heerenveen shouId outscore Groningen who have yet to score against the top 4 teams. Yes good recent form but stumbIe v the best.
- If Heerenveen have not scored first haIf I expect them to score 2nd haIf so note that.
13:00 - Celtic v Hearts - 1.3 Celtic
- Both teams have scored in the last 5 head to heads and Celtic remain unbeaten with 4 wins and a draw.
- This is the Scottish Premier League.
Celtic 100% stats
- Unbeaten.
- Scored in every match.
- No home draws.
- Not conceded in both halves at home.
- No opponent has led at home at halftime.
Celtic other stats
- 11 clean sheets in their last 15 matches.
- 16 consecutive wins.
- Scored first in 9/10 at home.
- Led at halftime in 8/10 at home.
Hearts 100% stats
Hearts other stats
- Only 3 wins in 12 matches.
- Not beaten a top 6 side away from home - failing to score in the 3 matches they played.
- Conceded last 9 away matches.
Conclusions
- Only complacency will defeat Celtic I think, such is their lead at the top.
- On form, they will score first, likely lead at halftime and we will not see any trading angle.
13:30 - Ajax v ADO Den Haag - 1.18 Ajax
- 4 consecutive Ajax wins to nil in head to heads.
- A 5 point gap at the top of the Dutch Eredivisie suggests this, and all other matches, are must-wins for Ajax.
Ajax 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- Scored in all home matches.
Ajax other stats
- Only 2 defeats.
- Failed to score only once.
- 4 consecutive 0-0's at halftime.
- No defeat in 7 at home.
- 0-2 away win v ADO earlier this season.
- 8 goals scored at the beginning of the 2nd half at home.
ADO Den Haag 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- All defeats home and away v top 6 teams.
- No away clean sheets.
- 100% over 1.5 goals away.
ADO Den Haag other stats
- 12 defeats in their last 15 matches.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- All defeats bar a single win home and away v top 10 teams.
Conclusions
- ADO are highly likely to concede, and concede 2/3 goals today which makes for a straightforward trading angle.
- I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. I would back Ajax of ADO score first.
- With 4 consecutive 0-0's at halftime, I would love to see 0-0 at halftime again as this would open up a correct score angle such as 2-0, 3-1.
14:00 - Udinese v AC Milan - 2.36 AC Milan
- 4 very tight matches in head to heads in Italian Seria A saw Udinese win the last encounter 0-1.
Udinese 100% stats
- No 0-0 at home.
- No over 4.5 goals matches at home.
Udinese other stats
- 3 consecutive defeats.
- Only 5 clean sheets.
- Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- Not beaten any top 10 team at home (AC Milan are 7th).
- Conceded 2 goals at least in all bar 1 of those matches with top 10.
AC Milan 100% stats
- No away match with 2 goals exactly.
AC Milan other stats
- Failed to score in only 5 matches.
- Conceded in their last 6 away matches.
- Only 1 0-0 away.
- Only 2 defeats v teams below them in the league and one of those was v Udinese.
- 11 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- I would lay any late 0-0 here. With only 5 clean sheets and with Milan conceding in their last 6 away, we might see both teams score which tends to happen in Udinese matches v the top 10.
- Udinese are yet to win a match v top 10 at home and tend to concede 2 goals. Will AC Milan turn around the form? Lay Udinese if Udinese score first if you think so.
14:00 - Fiorentina v Genoa - 1.67 Fiorentina
- 0-0, 1-1, 1-0 Fior, 0-0, 1-0 Genoa in recent head to heads. Not quite in keeping with today's odds.
Fiorentina 100% stats
- Undefeated at home.
- Scored and conceded in the 4 matches v bottom 7 where Genoa reside.
- All home wins by 1 goal.
- No home match with 4 goals in total.
Fiorentina other stats
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Scored and conceded last 6 home matches.
- Lost 1-0 to Genoa earlier this season.
- 6 of 8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Genoa 100% stats
- Not scored in both halves away.
- Not led at halftime away.
Genoa other stats
- 4 defeats and a draw in their last 5 matches.
- No win in 7 away matches.
- Only 1 0-0 away.
Conclusions
- This looks good for Fiorentina who are likely to score and concede and not lose. 1-1 and 2-1 appeal on form. We shall see.
- Lay Genoa if Genoa score first.
14:00 - Sassuolo v Juventus - 1.51 Juve
- 3 Juve wins in the last 4 head to heads. Sassuolo won 1-0 in the last home head to head.
- Juve are top of Italian Seria A with a point and a match in hand.
Sassuolo 100% stats
- Have not won a match, home or away, v top 11 teams.
- 3-1 defeats in the 2 matches played v the current top 2.
- Not conceded in both halves at home.
Sassuolo other stats
- 2 consecutive wins.
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at home.
- Not scored 2 goals in a home match v teams above them in the league.
Juventus 100% stats
- No draw.
- Not led at halftime away.
- No over 4.5 goals matches away.
Juventus other stats
- Failed to score only once.
- 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.
- Scored and conceded last 4 away.
- Last 3 away matches have seen goals before halftime despite 67% 0-0's at halftime away.
- 12 of 13 matches played home and away v teams 9th and lower ended with at least over 2.5 goals.
- 12 of 13 goals scored away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- If this match is 0-0 at halftime fear not. I would expect goals. I would even back 1-3 as a possible scoreline.
- Juventus should outscore Sassuolo today despite my noting the 1-0 Sass win last time Juve visited.
- Sassuolo may score today so watch out for that. They are opposable if doing so.
14:00 - Sampdoria v Roma - 1.78 Roma
- 3 consecutive Roma wins in head to heads, scoring 2 goals at least.
Sampdoria 100% stats
- Not conceded in both halves at home.
Sampdoria other stats
- No win in 6 matches.
- 2 consecutive home 0-0's.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
- 6 goals scored last 15 mins of home matches.
Roma 100% stats
Roma other stats
- 12 wins in their last 15 matches.
- 3 consecutive 1-0 scorelines away, 2 were wins.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Undefeated home and away outside of the top 10 (Sampdoria are 16th).
Conclusions
- Roma have only limped over the line in their last 2 away wins (0-1) but tend not to lose to teams home or away outside the top 10 so expect that today if Sampdoria score first.
- 0-0 sequences tend to end quickly so look for that as Sampdoria have 2 consecutive 0-0 sequences at home. Lay the very late 0-0.
14:30 - Freiburg v Hertha Berlin - 2.52 Freiburg
- I would not ordinarily research a match with these odds but there are only 2 German Bundesliga matches today.
- Head to heads are inconclusive.
Freiburg 100% stats
- No home draws.
- Not scored in both halves at home.
Freiburg other stats
- Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches.
- Only 3 clean sheets and failed to score only 2 matches which lends itself to both teams scoring.
- Only 1 win home and away v top 12 sides.
Hertha Berlin 100% stats
- Not beaten any top 8 side away from home. Freiburg are 9th.
Hertha Berlin other stats
- 3 losses in their last 4 matches.
- Only one defeat home and away v teams outside of the top 8.
- Opponents have led at halftime in 6/9 away matches.
Conclusions
- Both teams to score? It has a strong trend with Freiburg.
- Other than that, I guess the market is right here. Tough to call.
15:15 - Betis v Barcelona - 1.28 Barcelona
- Barcelona tend to win when these 2 meet.
Betis 100% stats
- Wins at home by 1 or 2 goals.
- No home match with exactly 3 goals.
Betis other stats
- Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 home matches.
- 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
- 1-6 home loss to Real Madrid.
Barcelona 100% stats
- No 0-0 away.
- Scored in all aways.
Barcelona other stats
- Failed to score only once.
- Scored 3-5 goals away v teams 8th and lower. Betis are 12th.
- 19 of 28 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- 3 1-0's in their last 4 matches at halftime.
Conclusions
- At their best today, Barca will score 3-5 goals. They have been slow starters first half so a 0-0 or 0-1 would not surprise.
- A nice straightforward match (I'll be rooting for a Betis lead of course from a trading perspective).
15:15 - Espanyol v Sevilla - 2.2 Sevilla
- 6-4 Sevilla win in the last Spanish La Liga head to head.
Espanyol 100% stats
- Failed to score at home v teams above them in the league.
- No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.
Espanyol other stats
- 5 losses all season, 2 came in last 2 away matches.
- Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
- All home wins v teams 17th and lower.
- 11 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Sevilla 100% stats
Sevilla other stats
- 7 wins in 8 matches.
- Failed to score only once.
- Scored last 17 matches.
- 9 goals scored last 15 mins of away matches.
Conclusions
- Unlikely we will see a 1-0 or 0-1 so note that in-play.
- Sevilla are the form side here and Espanyol are likely to find it tough - their wins are really v teams in the bottom 5 of the league, not the top 2.
- Should Espanyol score first, lay them.
- If Espanyol keep the match tight late on, remember that Sevilla have a solid scoring record last 15 mins of matches.
15:45 - Feyenoord v NEC Nijmegen - 1.22 Feyenoord
- 3 Feyenoord wins in the last 4 head to heads.
Feyenoord 100% stats
- Unbeaten at home.
- Scored in all home matches.
- Not lost at home at halftime.
- No 0-0.
Feyenoord other stats
- Failed to score only once.
- 3 clean sheets last 4 matches.
NEC 100% stats
NEC other stats
- Only 5 clean sheets.
- 3 clean sheets last 4 matches though.
- All defeats v top 3.
Conclusions
- This should not end 0-0. Do note though NEC's recent clean sheets which might make Feyenoord wait. Feyenoord ordinarily will be leading at halftime.
- NEC have lost to all top 3 and it seems a stretch too far for them.
- The niggle is the NEC clean sheets. But if NEC score first, Feyenoord really should come back.
16:00 - Man Utd v Wigan - 1.2 Man Utd
- This is the FA Cup.
- Man Utd like meeting Wigan and tend to win to nil.
Man Utd overall form
- Only 1 loss in 18 matches was a 2nd leg match which was a'convenient' defeat as United qualified by aggregate scores.
- No win in 3 now for United.
- Unbeaten in 16 matches at home.6 wins in their last 7 home matches.
Man Utd FA Cup form
- Only 1 loss in 13 was v Arsenal.
- Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Draw, Win at home recently.
- A nice easy 4-0 win v Reading recently - it was a strong team.
Wigan overall form
- 3 consecutive wins after a run of 6 losses and a draw. Turning a corner?
- Only 3 wins in 15 matches away.
- 2 consecutive clean sheets away.
Wigan FA Cup form
- Beat Man City, and drew with Arsenal after taking the lead in 2014. Eye-catching stuff.
- Only 1 win in 4 FA Cup matches.
- 2 consecutive away defeats.
Conclusions
- Unlike Liverpool, Man Utd look as if they will field a strong side and therein lies the key to a likely win.
- Man Utd's win v Reading was superb. Wigan did have that purple patch in 2014 but new management now for both sides. I think a first team United will continue scoring the 2 goals they tend to score.
16:30 - Mainz v Dortmund - 1.68 Dortmund
- 4 consecutive Dortmund wins in head to heads.
Mainz 100% stats
- Not yet beaten a top 8 side (Dortmund are 4th).
- Not Iost to niI at home.
Mainz other stats
- OnIy 3 draws.
- OnIy 2 cIean sheets.
- FaiIed to score in 3 of their Iast 4 matches.
- Only 2 0-0's at haIftime at home.
- Scored first in 6/8 home matches.
Dortmund 100% stats
- No away 0-0.
- Conceded in aII away matches.
Dortmund other stats
- OnIy 3 defeats.
- 3 score draws in their Iast 4 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 9 of their Iast 11 matches.
- FaiIed to score, and onIy kept cIean sheets, in 3 matches aII season.
- Unbeaten home and away v 9th and Iower.
ConcIusions
- Dortmund tend to win when meeting Mainz and have a soIid record outside of the top 9.
- Lay the 0-0 in the haIftime score market.
- Both teams couId score (based on Dortmund) but Mainz have faiIed to score in 3 of their Iast 4.
17:00 - Anderlecht v Standard - 1.82 Anderlecht
- Standard have managed to win at home in head to heads and At Anderlecht Standard have won and had 2 consecutive score draws. So Standard have a decent enough record in this Belgian Pro League.
Anderlecht 100% stats
Anderlecht other stats
- 7 wins and a draw in their last 8 matches.
- Failed to score in only 2 matches.
- Scored 2 goals at least in 8 of the last 9 matches.
- No defeat in 7 home matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at home.
Standard 100% stats
- No 0-0 away.
- Not beaten any team above them away from home.
- Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
- 2 consecutive away 2-2's.
Conclusions
- Note that Standard seem to have the better of the head to heads in so far as not losing is concerned.
- Anderlecht are expected to score. They have failed to score in only 2 matches. Anderlecht to score 2 goals today?
- Lay Standard therefore if Standard score first. I must back 2-2 but we did win with 2-2 in Standard's last match and it is unlikely we will see a profit again but as I said in the research for the Eupen match, we can trade out at a 2-0, 1-1, 2-1 or the corresponding away scoreline.
17:30 - Athletic Bilbao v Sporting Gijon - 1.38 Ath Bilbao
- Top 7 v bottom 3 in the Spanish La Liga.
Ath Bilbao 100% stats
- All wins by 1 (4 games) or 2 (2 games) at home.
Ath Bilbao other stats
- 3 consecutive draws, 2 were 0-0.
- No defeat in 9 at home.
- Lost 2-1 to Gijon earlier this season.
- Scored and conceded in 7/10 at home.
Sporting Gijon 100% stats
- No away win.
- Not led at halftime away.
- All defeats away v top 11.
- No away matches with exactly 2 or 4 goals.
Sporting Gijon other stats
- Only 3 wins.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- 6 0-0's at halftime away.
- Only scored more than 1 goal in 1 away match.
Conclusions
- I would lay any late draw today as this is a match in which Bilbao are capable of winning.
- If Gijon score first, lay them. They rarely score a 2nd goal away.
19:45 - Real Madrid v Sociedad - 1.28 ReaI Madrid
- 2 top 5 sides in Spanish La Liga so this may be tighter than the odds suggest.
- ReaI have won the Iast 4 head to heads.
ReaI Madrid 100% stats
- Scored in every match.
- Unbeaten at home.
- Not yet met the top 5 at home.
- Scored and conceded in aII home matches v the top 16.
- 100% over 1.5 goaIs.
ReaI other stats
- OnIy one defeat.
- OnIy 4 over 2.5 goaI matches aII season.
- Scored first in 8/10 matches at home.
Sociedad 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- No away draw.
- AII away wins by 2 goaIs.
- 100% over 1.5 goaIs away.
Sociedad other stats
- OnIy 2 draws.
- FaiIed to score in onIy 3 matches.
- 3 cIean sheets in their Iast 4 matches.
- Not pIayed top 4 teams away.
ConcIusions
- ReaI Madrid shouId continue their scoring run. Sociedad Iost heaviIy at home to Barca and ReaI and shouId reaIIy concede 3+ goaIs.
- Lay the 0-0 in the haIftime score market. I try to extract 20 mins out of the 1st haIf before Iaying. We shouId see 2 goaIs minimum today given both sides'100% over 1.5 goaIs record.
20:00 - Paris St-G v Monaco - 1.7 PSG
- Monaco won the Iast 2 head to heads.
- This is 3rd v 1st in the French Ligue 1.
Paris St G 100% stats
- Undefeated at home.
- AII draws at home v top 7 teams.
- Not conceded in both haIves at home.
Paris St G other stats
- FaiIed to score in onIy 3 matches.
- OnIy conceded in 2 home matches v 2nd and 6th.
- Scored first in 8/10 home matches.
Monaco 100% stats
Monaco other stats
- 5 wins in their Iast 6 matches.
- FaiIed to score onIy once.
- OnIy 3 under 2.5 goaIs matches.
- Scored in their Iast 15 matches.
ConcIusions
- Lay any Iate 0-0. Both teams couId score today given Monaco have an exceIIent scoring record.
- Monaco couId be competitive today. I wouId Iay PSG if they Ied 1-0 for a whiIe.