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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 29, 2017

The Tottenham match was the highlight yesterday if you kept faith in Tottenham. There was even a 1.08 lay of the draw available at 3-3. A reminder too with Chelsea and Tottenham that a sub 1.2 shot scored 4 goals at least! Live chat at 14:00 today for the start of Italian Seria A.

11:30 - Heerenveen v Groningen - 2.06 Heerenveen

  • 2 Groningen win ended with a Heerenveen win in recent head to heads.

Heerenveen 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • AII wins at home v teams 8th and Iower (Groningen are 10th, Heerenveen are 4th).
  • AII home wins by 1 or 2 goaIs.
  • No over 4.5 goaIs at home.
  • Not conceded in both haIves at home.

Heerenveen other stats

  • FaiIed to score onIy once.
  • OnIy 5 under 2.5 goaIs matches.
  • 5 0-0's at haIftime at home.
  • OnIy 1 Ioss at home.
  • 12 of 15 goaIs scored at home came 2nd haIf.

Groningen 100% stats

  • No 1-0 or 0-1.

Groningen other stats

  • OnIy 1 Ioss in 8 matches was v Ajax.
  • FaiIed to score so far in 4 matches home and away v top 4.

ConcIusions

  • Heerenveen shouId outscore Groningen who have yet to score against the top 4 teams. Yes good recent form but stumbIe v the best.
  • If Heerenveen have not scored first haIf I expect them to score 2nd haIf so note that.

13:00 - Celtic v Hearts - 1.3 Celtic

  • Both teams have scored in the last 5 head to heads and Celtic remain unbeaten with 4 wins and a draw.
  • This is the Scottish Premier League.

Celtic 100% stats

  • Unbeaten.
  • Scored in every match.
  • No home draws.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • No opponent has led at home at halftime.

Celtic other stats

  • 11 clean sheets in their last 15 matches.
  • 16 consecutive wins.
  • Scored first in 9/10 at home.
  • Led at halftime in 8/10 at home.

Hearts 100% stats

  • Not won to nil away.

Hearts other stats

  • Only 3 wins in 12 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side away from home - failing to score in the 3 matches they played.
  • Conceded last 9 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Only complacency will defeat Celtic I think, such is their lead at the top.
  • On form, they will score first, likely lead at halftime and we will not see any trading angle.

13:30 - Ajax v ADO Den Haag - 1.18 Ajax

  • 4 consecutive Ajax wins to nil in head to heads.
  • A 5 point gap at the top of the Dutch Eredivisie suggests this, and all other matches, are must-wins for Ajax.

Ajax 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Scored in all home matches.

Ajax other stats

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 4 consecutive 0-0's at halftime.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • 0-2 away win v ADO earlier this season.
  • 8 goals scored at the beginning of the 2nd half at home.

ADO Den Haag 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats home and away v top 6 teams.
  • No away clean sheets.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.

ADO Den Haag other stats

  • 12 defeats in their last 15 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • All defeats bar a single win home and away v top 10 teams.

Conclusions

  • ADO are highly likely to concede, and concede 2/3 goals today which makes for a straightforward trading angle.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. I would back Ajax of ADO score first.
  • With 4 consecutive 0-0's at halftime, I would love to see 0-0 at halftime again as this would open up a correct score angle such as 2-0, 3-1.

14:00 - Udinese v AC Milan - 2.36 AC Milan

  • 4 very tight matches in head to heads in Italian Seria A saw Udinese win the last encounter 0-1.

Udinese 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.

Udinese other stats

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Not beaten any top 10 team at home (AC Milan are 7th).
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in all bar 1 of those matches with top 10.

AC Milan 100% stats

  • No away match with 2 goals exactly.

AC Milan other stats

  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Only 2 defeats v teams below them in the league and one of those was v Udinese.
  • 11 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I would lay any late 0-0 here. With only 5 clean sheets and with Milan conceding in their last 6 away, we might see both teams score which tends to happen in Udinese matches v the top 10.
  • Udinese are yet to win a match v top 10 at home and tend to concede 2 goals. Will AC Milan turn around the form? Lay Udinese if Udinese score first if you think so.

14:00 - Fiorentina v Genoa - 1.67 Fiorentina

  • 0-0, 1-1, 1-0 Fior, 0-0, 1-0 Genoa in recent head to heads. Not quite in keeping with today's odds.

Fiorentina 100% stats

  • Undefeated at home.
  • Scored and conceded in the 4 matches v bottom 7 where Genoa reside.
  • All home wins by 1 goal.
  • No home match with 4 goals in total.

Fiorentina other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 home matches.
  • Lost 1-0 to Genoa earlier this season.
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Genoa 100% stats

  • Not scored in both halves away.
  • Not led at halftime away.

Genoa other stats

  • 4 defeats and a draw in their last 5 matches.
  • No win in 7 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.

Conclusions

  • This looks good for Fiorentina who are likely to score and concede and not lose. 1-1 and 2-1 appeal on form. We shall see.
  • Lay Genoa if Genoa score first.

14:00 - Sassuolo v Juventus - 1.51 Juve

  • 3 Juve wins in the last 4 head to heads. Sassuolo won 1-0 in the last home head to head.
  • Juve are top of Italian Seria A with a point and a match in hand.

Sassuolo 100% stats

  • Have not won a match, home or away, v top 11 teams.
  • 3-1 defeats in the 2 matches played v the current top 2.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Sassuolo other stats

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Not scored 2 goals in a home match v teams above them in the league.

Juventus 100% stats

  • No draw.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Juventus other stats

  • Failed to score only once.
  • 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • Last 3 away matches have seen goals before halftime despite 67% 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 12 of 13 matches played home and away v teams 9th and lower ended with at least over 2.5 goals.
  • 12 of 13 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If this match is 0-0 at halftime fear not. I would expect goals. I would even back 1-3 as a possible scoreline.
  • Juventus should outscore Sassuolo today despite my noting the 1-0 Sass win last time Juve visited.
  • Sassuolo may score today so watch out for that. They are opposable if doing so.

14:00 - Sampdoria v Roma - 1.78 Roma

  • 3 consecutive Roma wins in head to heads, scoring 2 goals at least.

Sampdoria 100% stats

  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Sampdoria other stats

  • No win in 6 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home 0-0's.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 6 goals scored last 15 mins of home matches.

Roma 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals away.

Roma other stats

  • 12 wins in their last 15 matches.
  • 3 consecutive 1-0 scorelines away, 2 were wins.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Undefeated home and away outside of the top 10 (Sampdoria are 16th).

Conclusions

  • Roma have only limped over the line in their last 2 away wins (0-1) but tend not to lose to teams home or away outside the top 10 so expect that today if Sampdoria score first.
  • 0-0 sequences tend to end quickly so look for that as Sampdoria have 2 consecutive 0-0 sequences at home. Lay the very late 0-0.

14:30 - Freiburg v Hertha Berlin - 2.52 Freiburg

  • I would not ordinarily research a match with these odds but there are only 2 German Bundesliga matches today.
  • Head to heads are inconclusive.

Freiburg 100% stats

  • No home draws.
  • Not scored in both halves at home.

Freiburg other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets and failed to score only 2 matches which lends itself to both teams scoring.
  • Only 1 win home and away v top 12 sides.

Hertha Berlin 100% stats

  • Not beaten any top 8 side away from home. Freiburg are 9th.

Hertha Berlin other stats

  • 3 losses in their last 4 matches.
  • Only one defeat home and away v teams outside of the top 8.
  • Opponents have led at halftime in 6/9 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score? It has a strong trend with Freiburg.
  • Other than that, I guess the market is right here. Tough to call.

15:15 - Betis v Barcelona - 1.28 Barcelona

  • Barcelona tend to win when these 2 meet.

Betis 100% stats

  • Wins at home by 1 or 2 goals.
  • No home match with exactly 3 goals.

Betis other stats

  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 home matches.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 1-6 home loss to Real Madrid.

Barcelona 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.
  • Scored in all aways.

Barcelona other stats

  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored 3-5 goals away v teams 8th and lower. Betis are 12th.
  • 19 of 28 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 3 1-0's in their last 4 matches at halftime.

Conclusions

  • At their best today, Barca will score 3-5 goals. They have been slow starters first half so a 0-0 or 0-1 would not surprise.
  • A nice straightforward match (I'll be rooting for a Betis lead of course from a trading perspective).

15:15 - Espanyol v Sevilla - 2.2 Sevilla

  • 6-4 Sevilla win in the last Spanish La Liga head to head.

Espanyol 100% stats

  • Failed to score at home v teams above them in the league.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Espanyol other stats

  • 5 losses all season, 2 came in last 2 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All home wins v teams 17th and lower.
  • 11 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Sevilla 100% stats

  • No 1-0 or 0-1 away.

Sevilla other stats

  • 7 wins in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored last 17 matches.
  • 9 goals scored last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Unlikely we will see a 1-0 or 0-1 so note that in-play.
  • Sevilla are the form side here and Espanyol are likely to find it tough - their wins are really v teams in the bottom 5 of the league, not the top 2.
  • Should Espanyol score first, lay them.
  • If Espanyol keep the match tight late on, remember that Sevilla have a solid scoring record last 15 mins of matches.

15:45 - Feyenoord v NEC Nijmegen - 1.22 Feyenoord

  • 3 Feyenoord wins in the last 4 head to heads.

Feyenoord 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Scored in all home matches.
  • Not lost at home at halftime.
  • No 0-0.

Feyenoord other stats

  • Failed to score only once.
  • 3 clean sheets last 4 matches.

NEC 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.

NEC other stats

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • 3 clean sheets last 4 matches though.
  • All defeats v top 3.

Conclusions

  • This should not end 0-0. Do note though NEC's recent clean sheets which might make Feyenoord wait. Feyenoord ordinarily will be leading at halftime.
  • NEC have lost to all top 3 and it seems a stretch too far for them.
  • The niggle is the NEC clean sheets. But if NEC score first, Feyenoord really should come back.

16:00 - Man Utd v Wigan - 1.2 Man Utd

  • This is the FA Cup.
  • Man Utd like meeting Wigan and tend to win to nil.

Man Utd overall form

  • Only 1 loss in 18 matches was a 2nd leg match which was a'convenient' defeat as United qualified by aggregate scores.
  • No win in 3 now for United.
  • Unbeaten in 16 matches at home.6 wins in their last 7 home matches.

Man Utd FA Cup form

  • Only 1 loss in 13 was v Arsenal.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Draw, Win at home recently.
  • A nice easy 4-0 win v Reading recently - it was a strong team.

Wigan overall form

  • 3 consecutive wins after a run of 6 losses and a draw. Turning a corner?
  • Only 3 wins in 15 matches away.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets away.

Wigan FA Cup form

  • Beat Man City, and drew with Arsenal after taking the lead in 2014. Eye-catching stuff.
  • Only 1 win in 4 FA Cup matches.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats.

Conclusions

  • Unlike Liverpool, Man Utd look as if they will field a strong side and therein lies the key to a likely win.
  • Man Utd's win v Reading was superb. Wigan did have that purple patch in 2014 but new management now for both sides. I think a first team United will continue scoring the 2 goals they tend to score.

16:30 - Mainz v Dortmund - 1.68 Dortmund

  • 4 consecutive Dortmund wins in head to heads.

Mainz 100% stats

  • Not yet beaten a top 8 side (Dortmund are 4th).
  • Not Iost to niI at home.

Mainz other stats

  • OnIy 3 draws.
  • OnIy 2 cIean sheets.
  • FaiIed to score in 3 of their Iast 4 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at haIftime at home.
  • Scored first in 6/8 home matches.

Dortmund 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • Conceded in aII away matches.

Dortmund other stats

  • OnIy 3 defeats.
  • 3 score draws in their Iast 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their Iast 11 matches.
  • FaiIed to score, and onIy kept cIean sheets, in 3 matches aII season.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 9th and Iower.

ConcIusions

  • Dortmund tend to win when meeting Mainz and have a soIid record outside of the top 9.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the haIftime score market.
  • Both teams couId score (based on Dortmund) but Mainz have faiIed to score in 3 of their Iast 4.

17:00 - Anderlecht v Standard - 1.82 Anderlecht

  • Standard have managed to win at home in head to heads and At Anderlecht Standard have won and had 2 consecutive score draws. So Standard have a decent enough record in this Belgian Pro League.

Anderlecht 100% stats

  • Not lost to nil at home.

Anderlecht other stats

  • 7 wins and a draw in their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 8 of the last 9 matches.
  • No defeat in 7 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.

Standard 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.
  • Not beaten any team above them away from home.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away 2-2's.

Conclusions

  • Note that Standard seem to have the better of the head to heads in so far as not losing is concerned.
  • Anderlecht are expected to score. They have failed to score in only 2 matches. Anderlecht to score 2 goals today?
  • Lay Standard therefore if Standard score first. I must back 2-2 but we did win with 2-2 in Standard's last match and it is unlikely we will see a profit again but as I said in the research for the Eupen match, we can trade out at a 2-0, 1-1, 2-1 or the corresponding away scoreline.

17:30 - Athletic Bilbao v Sporting Gijon - 1.38 Ath Bilbao

  • Top 7 v bottom 3 in the Spanish La Liga.

Ath Bilbao 100% stats

  • All wins by 1 (4 games) or 2 (2 games) at home.

Ath Bilbao other stats

  • 3 consecutive draws, 2 were 0-0.
  • No defeat in 9 at home.
  • Lost 2-1 to Gijon earlier this season.
  • Scored and conceded in 7/10 at home.

Sporting Gijon 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v top 11.
  • No away matches with exactly 2 or 4 goals.

Sporting Gijon other stats

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only scored more than 1 goal in 1 away match.

Conclusions

  • I would lay any late draw today as this is a match in which Bilbao are capable of winning.
  • If Gijon score first, lay them. They rarely score a 2nd goal away.

19:45 - Real Madrid v Sociedad - 1.28 ReaI Madrid

  • 2 top 5 sides in Spanish La Liga so this may be tighter than the odds suggest.
  • ReaI have won the Iast 4 head to heads.

ReaI Madrid 100% stats

  • Scored in every match.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Not yet met the top 5 at home.
  • Scored and conceded in aII home matches v the top 16.
  • 100% over 1.5 goaIs.

ReaI other stats

  • OnIy one defeat.
  • OnIy 4 over 2.5 goaI matches aII season.
  • Scored first in 8/10 matches at home.

Sociedad 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • No away draw.
  • AII away wins by 2 goaIs.
  • 100% over 1.5 goaIs away.

Sociedad other stats

  • OnIy 2 draws.
  • FaiIed to score in onIy 3 matches.
  • 3 cIean sheets in their Iast 4 matches.
  • Not pIayed top 4 teams away.

ConcIusions

  • ReaI Madrid shouId continue their scoring run. Sociedad Iost heaviIy at home to Barca and ReaI and shouId reaIIy concede 3+ goaIs.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the haIftime score market. I try to extract 20 mins out of the 1st haIf before Iaying. We shouId see 2 goaIs minimum today given both sides'100% over 1.5 goaIs record.

20:00 - Paris St-G v Monaco - 1.7 PSG

  • Monaco won the Iast 2 head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 1st in the French Ligue 1.

Paris St G 100% stats

  • Undefeated at home.
  • AII draws at home v top 7 teams.
  • Not conceded in both haIves at home.

Paris St G other stats

  • FaiIed to score in onIy 3 matches.
  • OnIy conceded in 2 home matches v 2nd and 6th.
  • Scored first in 8/10 home matches.

Monaco 100% stats

  • No 0-0's.

Monaco other stats

  • 5 wins in their Iast 6 matches.
  • FaiIed to score onIy once.
  • OnIy 3 under 2.5 goaIs matches.
  • Scored in their Iast 15 matches.

ConcIusions

  • Lay any Iate 0-0. Both teams couId score today given Monaco have an exceIIent scoring record.
  • Monaco couId be competitive today. I wouId Iay PSG if they Ied 1-0 for a whiIe.