Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I have done a video at DRT Facebook and will appear there if I have time today, as I did yesterday. I will do a video at DRT Facebook quickly looking through the English Championship.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

14:00 - Arsenal v Chelsea - 2.2 Chelsea

  • Match outcome: Arsenal have won 12/20 home matches and they have scored first in 14/20 home matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Chelsea away matches.
  • A London derby and a new Arsenal manager.
  • 0-0 and 1-1 away v Everton and Bournemouth. Arteta as manager has not had a home match.
  • 5 Chelsea losses in 7 matches so they are going through a pretty poor run themselves.
  • Add in the London Derby factor and this match becomes as appealing as being stuck in a lift with Piers Morgan. In-play stats or leave alone.

16:30 - Liverpool v Wolves - 1.3 Liverpool

Liverpool - 1st

  • All wins bar a draw v Man Utd.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 9 and last 9 matches at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Led at halftime in 8/9 at home.
  • Have conceded in all bar 1 home match.
  • 17 of 26 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Wolves - 6th

  • Only 3 losses all season.
  • 2 consecutive wins, conceding in each.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 matches, losing only once.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 10 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away (33%).
  • Only 1 away loss but only 3 away wins v 3rd, 16th and 20th.

Conclusions

  • Can any team stop this Liverpool? Emphatic at Leicester recently, their front 3 is too lethal for most defences. Wolves are buoyant but their win v Man City saw 2 City red cards.
  • Liverpool have been the best trading side in the Premiership as far as recoveries are concerned. There is little else to add! Only 3 wins for Wolves away but only 1 loss suggests too many draws to be ultimately effective.

18:00 - Manchester City v Sheffield United - 1.15 Man City

Man City - 3rd

  • This is simply a must win.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches.
  • 2-2 at home v 5th, 0-2 loss v 6th and 1-2 loss v 8th at home.Playing 7th today.

Sheffield United - 7th

  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten away. 2 consecutive wins away.
  • Not played the top 3 away, draws v 4th, 5th, 6th and lost to 1st and 2nd with home advantage.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market expects a comfortable home win for Man City today. Their home form v teams around Sheff Utd is poor, draw and 2 defeats! But Sheff Utd at home v 1st and 2nd have lost and the insinuation is that they will struggle away v 3rd away.
  • Sheff Utd are unbeaten away. The value is in laying Man City if Man City score first. The market does not expect though!

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

12:30 - Celtic v Rangers - 2.1 Celtic

  • Match outcome: Celtic have won 10/11 home matches against top half non-Big One teams while Rangers have lost 4/6 away matches against Big One teams. Celtic have won by two or more goals in 8/10 home matches.
  • The Old Firm Derby is not researchable. I remember the League Cup, where Rangers were unlucky not to get a result. They were utterly dominant.
  • Celtic have only 1 loss v Livingston. Rangers have only 1 loss v Celtic.
  • Both sides have failed to score in only 1 match.
  • In-play stats here.

14:00 - Hearts v Aberdeen - 2.55 Aberdeen

  • Match outcome: Hearts have lost 6/10 home matches against top half non-Big One teams while Aberdeen have won 13/18 away matches against bottom-six teams. Aberdeen have scored first in 13/18 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Hearts - 12th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 7 losses and a draw last 8 matches.
  • A draw and 3 consecutive losses at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 10 of their last 14 matches.
  • 3-2 loss v Aberdeen last time these 2 met.

Aberdeen - 4th

  • 2 consecutive away losses.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 3/3 wins v the bottom 2 this season.

Conclusions

  • Bottom of the league is obviously opposable. Aberdeen are 3/3 wins v the bottom 2 so expect to get a result today to end their run of 2 consecutive away losses. The market though is very strange. 2.55 for Aberdeen? This, against a Hearts failing to score in 10 of their last 14 matches.

15:00 - Livingston v Hibernian - 2.6 Hibernian

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 11/20 Livingston home matches and in 6/8 Hibernian away matches against middle-third teams. Hibernian have conceded first in 12/20 away matches.

15:00 - Motherwell v Hamilton - 1.5 Motherwell

  • Match outcome: Motherwell have won 10/12 home matches against bottom-six teams while Hamilton Ac have lost by two or more goals in 10/20 away matches. Hamilton Ac have had L/L double results in 7/11 away matches against top half non-Big One teams.

Motherwell - 3rd

  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • 4 wins and a loss last 5 matches at home.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No draw in 19 and in 10 at home.
  • 11 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Hamilton - 11th

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Only 3 wins all season.
  • No win in 9 away.
  • All defeats home and away v the top 4.

Conclusions

  • It looks as obvious as the market suggests here. Motherwell beat Hamilton easily at Hamilton and are in great form. Hamilton have 100% defeats home and away v the top 4 and that is set to continue.

15:00 - St Johnstone v Ross - 1.88 St Johnstone

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 13/18 St Johnstone home matches while Ross County have drawn the first half in 4/6 away matches against bottom-six teams. Ross County have drawn 4/6 away matches against bottom-six teams.

St Johnstone - 9th

  • 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches at home.
  • 7 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 2-2 v Ross earlier this season.
  • Unbeaten at home v 7th and lower.
  • Only 2 wins at home came v the bottom 2.

Ross County - 8th

  • 3 losses, 2 wins, then 2 losses.
  • No win in 6 away matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 away matches.
  • 14 of 20 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Only 1 away win v 3rd.

Conclusions

  • These 2 aren't all that, girlfriend.
  • Ross County are good at home, but have only 1 away win.
  • St Johnstone are unbeaten at home v 7th and lower. 2-2 the last time these 2 met.
  • Note that St Johnstone score a high % of their goals 2nd half at home. Remember that if 0-0 at halftime.

15:00 - St Mirren v Kilmarnock - 2.62 Kilmarnock

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Kilmarnock away matches against bottom-six teams and -1.5 goals in 11/19 Kilmarnock away matches. St Mirren have conceded first in 7/8 home matches against top-half teams.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

11:00 - Sivasspor v Goztepe - 1.73 Sivasspor

  • Match outcome: Sivasspor have won 8/10 home matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/8 Goztepe SK away matches against top-six teams.

Sivasspor - 1st

  • 7 wins and a draw last 8 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 10 and last 6 at home.
  • Only played 1 of 6th-13th at home so there is a gap in form of sorts.
  • 7 goals scored at home last 15 minutes of matches.

Goztepe - 9th

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 away.
  • Scored last 12 and last 6 away.
  • Wins away v the top 6 were 0-1 only.

Conclusions

  • Best case for Goztepe could be a 0-1 win so, if they score first, lay them but cover the 0-1. Sivasspor really should score 2+ goals here as has happened recently.
  • Watch out for a late recovery from Sivasspor (last 15 mins) if they are drawing or losing coming into the 75th minute.

13:30 - Alanyaspor v Konyaspor - 1.7 Alanyaspor

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/12 Konyaspor away matches and they have drawn the first half in 12/20 away matches. Alanyaspor have scored first in 7/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Alanyaspor - 6th

  • Only 3 wins in 12 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower.
  • 12 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Konyaspor - 14th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • No win in 9 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 6 away.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side home or away.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal v the top 12 away.

Conclusions

  • If Konyaspor cannot score that 2nd goal v the top 12 away, we should be ok here with Alanyaspor who are unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower. The problem with Alanyaspor is their failure to score in 5 of their last 7 matches. But Alanyaspor remain unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower.

13:30 - Gaziantep v Yeni - 2.35 Gaziantep

  • 1st goal: Gaziantep BB have scored first in 5/8 home matches while Yeni Malatyaspor have lost the first half in 7/10 away matches against middle-third teams. Yeni Malatyaspor have conceded first in 7/10 away matches against middle-third teams.

Gaziantep - 10th

  • A draw and 2 consecutive wins last 3 matches. 3-4 goals scored last 2 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets all season did come within the last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 win at home v the top 11.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match v 13th and higher at home.
  • 10 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Yeni - 8th

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 5 away.
  • Scored in each of their last 5 away.
  • Only 2 losses away v 3rd and 16th.
  • 7 goals scored and 5 goals conceded away last 15 minutes of matches.

Conclusions

  • The market suggests these 2 cannot be split. Here's the negatives. Gaziantep have only 1 win at home v the top 11. Here's the positives for Yeni. They are undefeated in 5 away. They have only 2 away losses, one v a top 3 side. Both teams may score and if this Yeni form continues, they may not lose.

16:00 - Rizespor v Fenerbahce - 1.7 Fenerbahce

  • Match outcome: Fenerbahce have drawn 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams and they have drawn the first half in 8/9 such matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/7 Rizespor home matches against top-six teams.

Rizespor - 12th

  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 matches at home.
  • 5 losses and a win last 6 away matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 12 matches.
  • Only played 2 of the top 8 at home (win v 1st and loss v 3rd).
  • Not played 4th-8th at home.

Fenerbahce - 4th

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Only 1 win in 7 away matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Not played 12th-17th away.

Conclusions

  • The gaps in form here make this match unappealing. Fenerbahce have been poor away from home but still they have only 4 defeats all season.