Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Inspired by one DRT member's comment at the DRT Facebook page, I have re-designed the DRT Logo. Hope you like it.

I think it is very catchy. The use of the word 'almost' gives us hope that it is not a total waste of time. I am a little concerned that my publishers won't be as enthused as me with the new tag line. This waste of time netted you a couple of 10.00 decimal odds profits along with a few other angles mentioned yesterday, not to mention an excellent Wednesday session mid week which the commenter on Facebook conveniently forgot to mention.

I will be almost wasting your time again on Telegram throughout the day. No live chat webinar today given it is predominantly international break and any league football tends to be second and third tier. I'll start wasting your time from about 13:30 onwards today. That will capture the Dutch match and the 14:00 kick-offs.


World Cup Qualifying - European Qualifiers

14:00 - Kazakhstan v France - 1.14 France

  • 122nd v 2nd.
  • Group D.
  • 1-2 Lithuania win v Kazaks. It was 1-1 until a Kazak red card. Lithuania scored a 90th minute winner.
  • France were poor v Ukraine. 1-1, the Ukraine goal was an own goal. Only 2 shots on target will need to be improved upon today. They were short priced v the Ukraine but surely playing 122nd in the rankings should see the 3 points they need.

17:00 - Albania v England - 1.28 England

  • 66th v 4th.
  • Group I.
  • Not much to read into the first matches v Andorra and San Marino. Albania are on a winning run at the moment, albeit definitely not against top 4 ranked opponents. A single goal only v Andorra for Albania should not have England concerned.

17:00 - Armenia v Iceland - 2.10 Iceland

  • 99th v 46th.
  • Group J.
  • Armenia dominated Liechtenstein but the goal was a late own goal to secure the win. Iceland lost 3-0 to Germany in their opener which makes it 5/5 recent defeats for Iceland in all competitions.

17:00 - Denmark v Moldova - 1.03 Denmark

  • 12th v 177th.
  • Group F.
  • A comfortable win v Israel for the Danes saw them score 2 goals as they have done in their last 4 matches in all competitions.
  • 1-1 v the Faroes for Moldova in their opener. Now sides at these odds have, so far, scored before halftime and generally to nil (Montenegro the exception as Gibraltar were awarded a penalty) so think correct score win to nil in the halftime score market. The Danes have Braithwaite from Barcelona up front. Not too shabby.

17:00 - Georgia v Spain - 1.18 Spain

  • 89th v 6th.
  • Group B.
  • 3 1-1 draws in 4 matches for the Spanish, including World Cup qualifier opener sees this match as a must win already.
  • Georgia went down 1-0 to Sweden and if Spain are huffing and puffing in breaking down defensively dense sides, they may struggle today. They were unlucky in that 1-1 v Greece in so much as Greece's goal was a penalty.
  • Georgia have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches so are unlikely to score 2 goals if taking a lead here.

19:45 - Bulgaria v Italy - 1.22 Italy

  • 68th v 10th.
  • Group C.
  • The Swiss were excellent in their 1-3 win v Bulgaria. Italy were excellent in their 2-0 win v Northern Ireland. 4 consecutive clean sheet wins for the Italians, scoring 2 goals at least is a hark back to their famous defensive best. The only time recently that Bulgaria have scored more than 2 goals is via Gibraltar.

19:45 - Israel v Scotland - 2.7 home and away

  • 87th v 48th.
  • Group F.
  • Israel lost 0-2 to Denmark. Scotland drew 2-2 with Austria, coming from behind twice in that match.
  • 2.7 the favourite tells you everything here. Tough to call.

19:45 - Romania v Germany - 1.36 Germany

  • 37th v 13th.
  • Group J.
  • Efficient Germany 3-0 win v Iceland. Romania threw away a 2-0 lead v North Macedonia to see a 2-2 before a late winner for them.
  • Romania have been full of goals in all competitions at home, 5-3-3 recently. This new look Germany had better be wary.

19:45 - Ukraine v Finland - 1.65 Ukraine

  • 24th v 55th.
  • Group D.
  • Ukraine were gifted an own goal equaliser v France, a team they kept to 2 shots on target for the majority of the match.
  • 2-2 v Bosnia for Finland saw Bosnia score first and last. Norwich's Pukki the scorer of the Finns goals.

Spanish Segunda

13:00 - Lugo v Sabadell - 2.40 Lugo

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/9 CD Lugo home matches against bottom-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 8/10 home matches. CE Sabadell have conceded first in 6/9 away matches against bottom-half teams.

15:00 - Girona v Albacete - 1.83 Girona

Girona - 8th

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • 0-0-1-0-2-0-1 goals scored at home recently.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Conceded last 8 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 13th and lower.
  • 0-2 win last head to head.

Albacete - 21st

  • Only 1 win in 7 came last home match.
  • Loss, Draw, Loss away recently.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 8. Failed to score in 8/11 of those matches.
  • 8 goals conceded away last 15 minutes of matches.

Conclusions

  • Girona's recent goal scoring is poor but notably they are unbeaten at home v 13th and lower. Can we rely on that and dismiss this poor recent home scoring?

20:30 - Tenerife v Las Palmas - 2.00 Tenerife

Tenerife - 11th

  • Only 3 losses in 12 matches all came away from home.
  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 home matches.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, 2 at fulltime.
  • 1-0 loss last head to head.
  • 8 goals scored last 15 mins of home matches.

Las Palmas - 13th

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches.
  • 3 losses and a win last 4 matches away.
  • Only 2 wins away v 1st and 12th.

Conclusions

  • Las Palmas only won twice away and on that basis don't really look a threat against a Tenerife side with no defeat in 7 at home.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

Dutch Eerste Divisie

13:30 - Excelsior v Helmond - 1.60 Excelsior

Excelsior - 9th

  • 3 losses in 10 matches came within the last 6 matches.
  • Win, Draw, Loss, Win, Win at home recently.
  • 6 wins and a 4-4 at home v 11th and lower.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.
  • 17 goals in total last 15 mins of home matches.

Helmond - 13th

  • Only 1 win in 6 came last home match.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 9 away.
  • Conceded last 12 away.
  • 2+ goals conceded away v the top 11 and no win.
  • 17/24 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Helmond should be opposed here if seasonal patterns continue. Likely to concede 2 goals as they do v the top 11. They do score and concede and are opposable if scoring first. Excelsior have an excellent win record v 11th and lower and that should continue today.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/12 Excelsior home matches against middle-third teams and +3.5 goals in 11/20 Excelsior home matches. Helmond have conceded first in 9/10 away matches against middle-third teams.

15:45 - Roda v Cambuur - 1.85 Cambuur

Roda - 8th

  • Only 1 win in 4 matches.
  • 5-6-4-3-4-7-4-4 goals in total recently.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 and last 5 at home.
  • 11 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches and 8 at home.
  • 3-0 loss last head to head.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side home or away.

Cambuur - 1st

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • No defeat in 10 and in 14 away.

Conclusions

  • Cambuur's odds look a gift on seasonal form. Is the market a little cautious as Roda have goals in them?
  • Roda have not beaten a top 6 side home or away.
  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 13/20 Roda JC home matches and +2.5 goals in 16/20 Roda JC home matches. Cambuur have won 8/10 away matches against top-half teams.

19:00 - NAC Breda v De Graafschap - 2.37 De Graafschap

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 6/7 NAC Breda home matches against top-six teams and in 4/5 De Graafschap away matches against top-six teams. De Graafschap have conceded first in 3/5 away matches against top-six teams.