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English Premier League

12:00 - Crystal Palace v Fulham - 2.37 Fulham

  • London Derby. I will leave this to the in-play stats.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 15/18 C Palace home matches against bottom-six teams and in 4/5 Fulham away matches against middle-third teams. Fulham have lost 3/5 away matches against middle-third teams.

12:00 - Leicester v Arsenal - 2.45 Leicester

  • Only 1 loss for Leicester since 20th December 2020. 3 wins and a loss v Leeds last 4 at home.
  • Leicester have been more wobbly at home, losing to 4th, 7th, 8th, 10th, 18th and they play 11th at home.
  • Leicester have scored 7 goals at home last 15 mins of home matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 for Arsenal. 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • Arsenal have only 1 win away v the top 12 failing to score that 2nd goal.
  • Angles? The market cannot split these 2. Arsenal are wobbling yet again and Leicester are showing some consistency BUT they have significant home defeats.
  • Leave this to the in-play stats.
  • Match outcome: Leicester have won 9/13 home matches against middle-third teams while Arsenal have lost by two or more goals in 7/11 trips to top-six teams. Leicester have won by two or more goals in 5/9 home matches against middle-third teams.

14:00 - Tottenham v Burnley - 1.57 Tottenham

Tottenham - 9th

  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Draw, Loss, Loss, Win at home.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.
  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.
  • 11/17 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • 10/13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Burnley - 15th

  • 3 draws and a win last 4 matches.
  • Win, Loss, Win away.
  • Only 2 away defeats outside of 6th and lower v 10th and 17th.

Conclusions

  • Another vulnerable big name side failing to score in 3 of their last 5 matches. Tottenham are unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league. Can we trust that?
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Spurs home matches against bottom-six teams and in 8/10 Burnley away matches. There have been -1.5 goals in 10/20 Burnley away matches.

16:30 - Chelsea v Man Utd - 2.20 Chelsea

  • High profile match so retiscent to take a pre-match opinion. Add in the post Europa league/Champions League element and new manager and it is tough to read.
  • Chelsea unbeaten under Mr. Tickle and buzzing after a 0-1 win v Atl Madrid. Yet to concede a 2nd goal.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/11 Chelsea home matches against top-six teams. Man Utd have won 6/9 away matches against top-six teams.

19:15 - Sheffield Utd v Liverpool - 1.40 Liverpool

Sheff Utd - 20th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 3 consecutive losses.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home.
  • No draw 11 and 9 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none fulltime.
  • 100% losses v top 12.
  • All defeats bar 1 v top 15.
  • 7/9 goals scored at home 2nd half.

Liverpool - 1st

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Win, Win, Loss away.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, once fulltime.
  • 3/3 draws away v 16th, 17th, 18th.
  • 2-1 win last head to head.
  • 16/23 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If ever there was a time to surprise Liverpool, it would be now. 4 consecutive defeats. But if ever there was a time to end a 4 match losing streak, it would be v Sheff Utd!
  • Both sides high % 0-0 at halftime.
  • Match outcome: Sheffield Utd have lost 5/8 home matches against top-six teams while Liverpool have won 10/14 away matches against bottom-six teams. Liverpool have scored first in 7/10 away matches.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

12:00 - Wycombe v Norwich - 1.44 Norwich

Wycombe - 24th

  • Win, Loss, Draw, Win recently. Not bad for bottom of the league.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home, 3 at fulltime.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.
  • 0-0 at home v 2nd, 1-1 v 3rd.

Norwich - 1st

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 100% wins v 21st and lower. Met 21st last match and beat them 1-3 so will feel confident v 24th.
  • 10/16 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Bottom v top and if Norwich perform as they did v 21st in the league last match, they will win. Wycombe have been confounding the odds with a Draw and a win latest and indeed a 0-0 at home v 2nd and 1-1 v 3rd so may put up a rear guard action. Watch the in-play stats to see if this impacts Norwich's shots on and off target stats.
  • Match outcome: Wycombe W have lost 8/16 home matches while Norwich have won 8/12 away matches. Norwich have scored first in 8/12 away matches.

SPANISH LA LIGA

13:00 - Celta Vigo v Valladolid - 1.85 Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo - 11th

  • Only 1 win in 8 came last home match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 6 wins and a draw at home v 9th and lower. 1-1 last head to head.

Valladolid - 19th

  • Only 1 win in 11.
  • Conceded last 7.
  • Only 1 away loss v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Slightly favour Celta Vigo. Although interesting that Valladolid have only 1 loss away v 8th and lower.
  • Celta's record v 9th and lower really catches the eye.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/11 Valladolid away matches against middle-third teams and they have drawn the first half in 7/11 such matches. Celta Vigo have scored first in 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.

15:15 - Cadiz v Real Betis - 2.05 Real Betis

  • We never know what to expect of newly promoted sides, particularly at home but only 2 wins since 7th November.
  • 1-0 loss to Betis last head to head.
  • Only 2 home wins for Cadiz v 4th and 16th and they play 7th today.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 for Betis came v Barcelona and they still scored 2 goals. 3 wins in 4.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 away.
  • All wins bar 1 for Betis came v 11th and lower. Cadiz are 14th.
  • 12/16 Betis away goals came 2nd half, 9 last 15 mins of matches.
  • Angles? I fancy Betis here on recent form and form v 11th and lower but there is always that element of the unknown regarding newly promoted at home.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 3/5 Cadiz home matches against top-half teams and they have drawn the first half in 6/11 home matches. Real Betis have lost 8/8 away matches against middle-third teams.

17:30 - Granada v Elche - 1.95 Granada

Granada - 9th

  • Only 1 win in 9.
  • 2+ goals conceded in 5/6 matches.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 7th and lower.

Elche - 18th

  • Only 1 win since 1st November came last match.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 away.
  • No win 8 away.
  • Conceded last 5 away.
  • Not beaten a top 11 side.

Conclusions

  • I am with the market. Look at Elche. Only 1 win since 1st Nov, albeit last home match. Granada at home are solid v 7th and lower.
  • 1st goal: Elche have conceded first in 7/10 away matches and they have lost 6/10 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Granada CF home matches against bottom-six teams.

20:00 - Villarreal v Atletico Madrid - 2.45 Atletico Madrid

  • High profile derby I will not research.
  • Match outcome: Villarreal have drawn 8/12 home matches against top-six teams while Atl. Madrid have drawn the first half in 7/10 away matches against top-six teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 10/12 Atl. Madrid away matches against top-six teams.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

12:30 - Union Berlin v Hoffenheim - 2.40 Union Berlin

  • The market cannot split newly promoted v the mighty Hoff who, at their best recently, have 2/3 goals in them. 3-3-1-1-2-4 goals scored recently. The 1-1 came v rock solid Bayern Munich and Frankfurt.
  • Union Berlin in contrast have not scored that 2nd goal in 7 matches and that might impact their result.
  • 1st goal: Union Berlin have scored first in 10/14 home matches while Hoffenheim have conceded first in 9/11 away matches against top-half teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 12/14 Hoffenheim away matches.

14:30 - Mainz v Augsburg - 2.15 Mainz

Mainz - 17th

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 3-1 loss last head to head.
  • Only 2 home wins, not beaten 8th or lower.
  • 9/10 goals scored at home first half.
  • 11 goals conceded at home last 30 mins.

Augsburg - 13th

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded last 8 matches.
  • 0-1 wins away v 14th and 16th and at home v 17th and 18th.
  • 7/10 goals scored away 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Augsburg like playing the bottom 5 and winning, albeit 0-1away.
  • Mainz are winning at home recently but have not beaten any sides at home 8th and lower.
  • Look out of 2nd half goals if a quiet first half.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/9 Augsburg away matches against bottom-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 6/8 such matches. FSV Mainz 05 have conceded first in 7/10 home matches.

17:00 - Leverkusen v Freiburg - 1.75 Leverkusen

Leverkusen - 5th

  • After a poor run, some improvement, a win and 2 score draws. Last match saw a last gasp equaliser v Augsburg.
  • Losses at home v Bayern and Wolfsburg.
  • Conceded last 10 and last 7 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.
  • 2-4 win last head to head.

Freiburg - 9th

  • Only 2 wins in 7 at home v Stuttgart and Dortmund.
  • Loss, Loss, 0-0 last 3 away.
  • Failed to score in 3/4 away matches.
  • All defeats away v the top 6.
  • 11/17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A chance for Leverkusen to continue their mini revival. They are unbeaten v 8th and lower and play a Freiburg side tending to lose to the top 6.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Leverkusen home matches against top-half teams and in 8/10 SC Freiburg away matches against top-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 9/16 Leverkusen home matches.

Italian Serie A

11:30 - Sampdoria v Atalanta - 1.57 Atalanta

Sampdoria - 10th

  • Only 1 win in 4 matches.
  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 home matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 9 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 1-3 win last head to head.

Atalanta - 5th

  • Only 2 losses in 18 matches.
  • 2 consecutive wins, 3 wins in 4 matches away.
  • No defeat 8 away.
  • 9/13 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • No emphatic patterns for either side but the market is clearly with Atalanta despite Samp beating them already this season.
  • Atalanta are good away. No defeat in 8 and Samp have conceded last 9 at home.

14:00 - Crotone v Cagliari - 2.15 Cagliari

Crotone - 20th

  • 8 losses and a win last 9 matches.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 11 and last 11 at home.
  • 11 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches and 7 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All 3 wins came at home v 15th and lower.
  • 4-2 loss last head to head.

Cagliari - 18th

  • 9 losses and a draw last 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 5/7 scorelines have been 1-0 defeats.
  • Conceded last 11 and last 4 away.
  • No win in 16 and in 8 away.
  • 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Unbeaten v the bottom 2.
  • Win draw away v 17th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Trusting teams at the wrong end of the league is a concern, particularly when they do their winning and drawing v fellow strugglers as both of these 2 do.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Crotone home matches and +3.5 goals in 5/10 Cagliari away matches against bottom-six teams. Cagliari have lost 10/14 away matches.

14:00 - Inter Milan v Genoa - 1.17 Inter Milan

Inter Milan - 1st

  • 5 wins and a 0-0 last 6 matches.
  • 8 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored last 11 at home and scored 2+ goals last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v 2nd.
  • 0-2 win last head to head.
  • 22/32 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Genoa - 11th

  • Unbeaten in 7 matches.
  • 2 consecutive draws.
  • Draw, Win, Draw, away, 2 0-0's.
  • No defeat in 7 overall.
  • Not played top 4 away.
  • Not beaten top 15 away.
  • 10/14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Genoa are in excellent recent unbeaten form but have not beaten the top 15 away from home. Damning?
  • Inter Milan may have 2+ goals in them.
  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 7/11 Inter Milan home matches and +2.5 goals in 6/8 Genoa away matches against top-six teams. Genoa have lost 15/20 away matches against top-six teams.

14:00 - Udinese v Fiorentina - 2.40 Udinese

  • Leave this to the in-play stats. 2.40 the favourite.
  • 1st half outcome: Udinese have drawn the first half in 14/20 home matches and there have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 Udinese home matches against middle-third teams. Fiorentina have conceded first in 6/10 away matches against middle-third teams.

17:00 - Napoli v Benevento - 1.36 Napoli

Napoli - 7th

  • Last 3 defeats came away.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 10 and last 8 at home.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 1-2 win last head to head.
  • 3 home losses v 2nd. 8th, 16th.
  • 8/10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Benevento - 15th

  • 4 draws and a loss last 5 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Draw away recently.
  • No win in 7 matches.
  • Not beaten the top 7. All defeats away v the top 9.

Conclusions

  • Napoli beat Benevento last time and if no worse for their Europa League exploits v Granada, they have a good chance of doing the double if Benevento continue to lose v the top 9 - they play 7th today.
  • 1st half outcome: Benevento have lost the first half in 7/11 away matches and they have conceded first in 7/11 away matches. Napoli have won 13/18 home matches.

19:45 - Roma v AC Milan - 2.4 Roma

  • High profile derby. Leave this to the in-play stats but remember that you don't have to play matches where you have no strong trading angles.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 13/16 Roma home matches and in 7/8 AC Milan away matches against top-six teams. Roma have won 9/11 home matches.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

12:00 - Monaco v Brest - 1.44 Monaco

  • Match outcome: Monaco have won 8/12 home matches while Stade Brestois have lost 7/11 away matches. Stade Brestois have drawn the first half in 5/8 away matches against top-six teams.

14:00 - Angers v Lens - 2.70 Lens

  • 1st goal: Angers have conceded first in 7/9 home matches against top-six teams while RC Lens have won 3/5 away matches against middle-third teams. Angers have lost 6/9 home matches against top-six teams.

14:00 - Lorient v St. Etienne - 2.50 St Etienne

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/13 Lorient home matches and +3.5 goals in 5/8 Saint-Etienne away matches against bottom-six teams. Saint-Etienne have lost 13/20 away matches.

14:00 - Nimes v Nantes - 2.40 Nantes

  • Match outcome: Nimes have won 7/10 home matches against bottom-six teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 9/12 Nantes away matches against bottom-six teams.

14:00 - Reims v Montpellier - 2.75 Montpellier

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Reims home matches against middle-third teams. Montpellier have conceded first in 12/19 away matches.

16:00 - Lille v Strasbourg - 1.80 Lille

  • Match outcome: Lille have won 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Strasbourg have had L/L double results in 5/8 away matches against top-six teams. Strasbourg have lost 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.

20:00 - Marseille v Lyon - 1.70 Lyon

  • 1st goal: Marseille have conceded first in 7/11 home matches against top-six teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Lyon away matches against top-half teams.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 - Sparta Rotterdam v Willem-II - 1.73 Sparta

Sparta - 12th

  • 2 losses, 2 draws, 2 losses recently.
  • Loss, Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss at home recently.
  • 1-3 win last head to head.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower.
  • 15/20 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Willem II - 16th

  • No win in 11 away.
  • Conceded last 8 away.

Conclusions

  • Poor recent form for Willem II further compounded by the fact that Sparta are unbeaten v 14th and lower and tend to win v these lesser lights.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 5/7 Sparta R'dam home matches against bottom-six teams and +3.5 goals in 4/7 Sparta R'dam such matches. Willem II have lost 9/11 away matches against middle-third teams.

13:30 - Groningen v Fortuna Sittard - 1.85 Groningen

Groningen - 6th

  • A win and 2 draws last 3.
  • Draw, Win, Win, Draw at home.
  • No defeat in 4 at home.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home win v the top 11, 2 losses and 4 draws.
  • 1-3 win last head to head.

Fortuna Sittard - 9th

  • 7 wins in 10 matches.
  • 3 losses came at home.
  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 away.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 away matches.
  • Have not beaten the top 8.
  • 13/18 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Fortuna Sittard are un excellent recent form but quite clearly have not beaten a top 8 side. Rely on that today?
  • Groningen I feel may be vulnerable as their record v the top 11 is poor, only 1 home win and a lot of draws. Groningen found Fortuna easy last time but I feel this is a better Sittard side. The in-play stats tend to tell us if Fortuna are in a going mood.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/8 Groningen home matches against top half non-Big Two teams and -1.5 goals in 10/20 Groningen home matches. Sittard have lost 11/12 away matches against top-six teams.

13:30 - PSV Eindhoven v Ajax - 2.00 Ajax

  • A derby of sorts so I am not too keen on researching these. They tend to produce 'best on the day' results.
  • Asian handicap: PSV have won by two or more goals in 7/10 home matches while Ajax have had L/L double results in 3/5 away matches against Big Two teams. PSV have had W/W double results in 11/17 home matches.

15:45 - AZ Alkmaar v Feyenoord - 2.15 AZ Alkmaar

  • Another derby of sorts so I won't research. Follow via the in-play stats.
  • 1st half outcome: AZ Alkmaar have won the first half in 12/19 home matches while Feyenoord have conceded first in 8/11 away matches. AZ Alkmaar have won 7/9 home matches against top-six teams.