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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
15:00 - Newcastle v Wolves - 2.7 Wolves
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/11 Wolves away matches and they have drawn the first half in 4/7 away matches against bottom-six teams. Newcastle have conceded first in 7/10 home matches against middle-third teams.
- The market suggests a tough to call match. Newcastle have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- At home, Loss, Draw, Draw, Win. Throughout the season notable wins v Tottenham and Man Utd, 1-0, were the only wins.
- 2 losses for Wolves v Everton and Chelsea. Draw, Win, Win, Draw latest. 2-2-1-2-2-1 goals scored lately by Wolves.
- Angles? Any coincidence that most of Newcastle's wins came v the current top 5. They play 13th today.
- Wolves themselves have goals in them. We cannot ignore this strong Newcastle home defensive showing. So, for me, I agree with the market. An argument for either side.
17:30 - Liverpool v Tottenham - 1.53 Liverpool
- Match outcome: Liverpool have won 10/11 home matches against top-half teams while Spurs have lost 6/8 away matches against top-six teams. Liverpool have had W/W double results in 10/11 home matches.
- All wins for Liverpool bar a 1-1 draw v Man Utd. They continue to score.
- They score and concede at home, and win.
- Tottenham are unreadable. 2 2-2 draws away v Arsenal and Man City, then losses v Leicester and Brighton away.
- 1-2-0-1 goals scored lately by Tottenham.
- Angles? On current form, we have to be with Liverpool. We may see Tottenham score.
Norwich v Man Utd - 1.89 Man Utd
- Match outcome: Man Utd have won 8/13 away matches against promoted teams and they have scored first in 10/14 such matches. Bottom-six promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 53% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15.
- 2 wins for Norwich came at home v Man City and Newcastle.Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home for Norwich.
- Norwich's only clean sheet came last match.
- Norwich failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- 3-2-3-1 goals scored by Norwich at home.
- Only 2 wins for Man Utd came v Chelsea and Leicester at home. I said it last match. United have failed to score that 2nd goal now in 8 matches. 1-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0 away.
- Angles? Norwich have conceded 2+ goals in all bar 2 matches. Will this give a United failing to score that 2nd goal an angle in?
Arsenal v Crystal Palace - 1.52 Arsenal
- Match outcome: Arsenal have won 13/16 home matches while C Palace have lost 11/15 away matches against top-six teams. Arsenal have won by two or more goals in 10/20 home matches.
- London derby. Match on Monday, match on Thursday, match today. A schedule Arsenal are not best pleased with.
- Only 2 losses for Arsenal came away. The Sheff Utd loss is no real surprise. How many teams cock it up pre European club competition?
- 2-2-3-1 goals scored at home. Win, Draw, Win, Win at home.
- Palace have lost v Sheff Utd, Tottenham and Man City. London derbies away? 4-0 loss to Tottenham and 1-2 win v West Ham.
- Angles? Aubameyang failed to score on Monday. He may get on the scoresheet today. Check for team news. Arsenal should really field a first XI.
- No 0-0 at halftime for Arsenal. On form, Palace tend to lose v current top 9 (Arsenal are 5th).
ITALIAN SERIA A
12:30 - Bologna v Sampdoria - 1.91 Bologna
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/10 Bologna home matches against bottom-six teams and in 13/16 Sampdoria away matches. Sampdoria have lost 7/11 away matches against middle-third teams.
- Only 2 wins for Bologna came within the first 3 matches.
- Sampdoria have only 1 win. 3 losses and a 0-0 last 4 matches.
- 2+ goals conceded by Samp in each of their last 4 matches.
- Angles? Bologna are unbeaten v 14th and lower and meet 20th, a side conceding 2+ goals in all 4 defeats away.
- Concerns? Bologna are not all that!
15:00 - Spal v Napoli - 1.46 Napoli
- 1st goal: SPAL 1907 have conceded first in 7/9 home matches against top-six teams while Napoli have won 9/12 away matches against bottom-six teams. Napoli have had W/W double results in 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- All defeats for SPAL bar 2 wins v Lazio and Parma at home.
- In all bar 1 defeat, SPAL have conceded 2+ goals.
- SPAL only kept one clean sheet at home last home match.
- Napoli have lost only 2 matches v Juventus and Cagliari.
- 4-3-4-0 goals scored away by Napoli.
- 5 wins and a 0-0 for Napoli v 9th and lower.
- Angles? I must be with Napoli who may re-discover their 3+ goal touch.
15:00 - Torino v Cagliari - 1.84 Torino
- Match outcome: Torino FC have won 11/15 home matches while Cagliari have lost 8/14 away matches. Cagliari have conceded first in 14/20 away matches.
- Contrasting form.
- Only 1 win in 6 matches for Torino. Cagliari are unbeaten in 6 matches.
- Only 1 clean sheet plays only 1 failed to score.
- Angles? I can't see why Torino are strong favourites. Due deference to the market though. Watching brief here for me via the in-play stats.
15:00 - Atalanta v Udinese - 1.48 Atalanta
- Match outcome: Udinese have lost 10/11 away matches against top-six teams and they have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 such matches. Atalanta have won 7/9 home matches against middle-third teams.
- Atalanta are 3rd after 8 matches. They have scored 2+ goals in all matches. Only loss was a 2-3 v Torino.
- 3-2-1 goals conceded at home.
- Atalanta have scored in every match.
- No 0-0 at halftime at home for Atalanta.
- 3 wins for Udinese came at home and were 1-0. 1-0, 0-0, 1-0 losses away for Udinese. They have yet to score 2 goals this season. A ready angle.
- Angles? If Udinese lead, lay them but cover the 0-1 scoreline. Atalanta, if on form, are likely to score 2+ goals and that should lead to the win.
18:00 - Roma v AC Milan - 2.26 Roma
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Roma home matches against middle-third teams and in 7/11 AC Milan away matches against top-six teams. AC Milan have drawn the first half in 12/19 away matches.
- Only 1 loss for Roma came at home v 3rd placed Atalanta.
- Draw, Win, Loss, Draw at home for Roma. 4 0-0's at halftime in 5 matches for Roma.
- Roma have not met 7th-16th at home. Milan are 12th.
- Milan have 4/4 losses v 11th and higher. Roma are 6th.
- Milan have not met the top 9 away.
- Angles? 2 significant gaps in form put me off this match featuring 2 sides only capable, early season, of beating bottom 8 sides.
20:45 - Fiorentina v Lazio - 2.5 Fiorentina
- Match outcome: Fiorentina have drawn 7/9 home matches against top-half teams and they have drawn the first half in 6/10 home matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 15/20 Lazio away matches against middle-third teams.
- Both sides have 2 losses this season. Fiorentina's came first 2 matches of the season.
- 3 wins last 4 for Fiorentina includes 2 consecutive home wins.
- Lazio have scored 2 goals at least in 3 of their last 4 matches. 2 losses and a draw last 3 away for Lazio.
- Lazio have not had a 0-0 at halftime but Fiorentina have had 2 consecutive 0-0's at halftime.
- Angles? No patterns in the Challenge Table to make me want to pursue a pre-match angle as befits 2.5 odds favourites.
15:30 - Wolfsburg v Augsburg - 1.63 Wolfsburg
- Match outcome: Wolfsburg have won 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while Augsburg have lost 11/16 away matches. Wolfsburg have won by two or more goals in 5/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.
- What a superb start for the Wolf. 2nd. Unbeaten albeit 4 1-1 draws in 6 matches. They have not scored that 2nd goal in their last 6 matches. They have not conceded 2 goals in any match this season. Solid defence should lead to solid result.
- Only 1 win for Augsburg came at home. They scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches. A recent 2-2 v Bayern was more down to pre-Champions League Bayern.
- 3 losses in 4 matches away for Augsburg saw all teams score.
- Angles? On current form, it looks clear cut. 1-1 worst case for the Wolf who could end their inability to score 2 goals in 6 matches against a side conceding 2 goals at least regularly.
18:00 - Mgladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt - 2.08 Mgladbach
- HT/FT: B. M'gladbach have had L/L double results in 6/8 home matches against top-half teams and they have lost the first half in 7/8 such matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 10/12 E. Frankfurt away matches.
- Mgladbach are top of the tree....at the moment.
- Draw, Loss, Win, Win at home. 4 wins in 5 matches. Marginal loss to Dortmund latest.
- Frankfurt have only 2 defeats, coming away. Unbeaten in 4 matches, 2-2, 1-2, 2-2, 3-0 latest.
- Mgladbach wins have come v 11th and lower this season. They play 8th today.Frankfurt wins have come v 9th and lower. They play top today.
- Angles? Mgladbach form is skewed by the fact that it is generally against early season slow starters. Note Frankfurt's 3 2-1 results away, 2 defeats and a win. Is that an angle in?
SPANISH LA LIGA
- 2.6, 2.44, 2.8 odds favourites makes for a tough league to read today.
12:00 - Celta Vigo v Sociedad - 2.6 Sociedad
- 1st goal: Celta Vigo have conceded first in 9/12 home matches against top-six teams while Real Sociedad have scored first in 10/15 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 5/10 Real Sociedad away matches against bottom-six teams.
- 1 goal max scored by Celta Vigo this season at home may be our angle in. 2 3-1 wins for Sociedad v 17th and 19th and they play 18th today.
- So, remember 2.6 the favourite tells you this may not be a match to dwell upon. The Challenge Table suggests Celta may struggle for 2 goals so lay them if they score first.
14:00 - Granada v Betis - 2.44 Granada
- -2.5 goals: Top-six promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 83% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 Real Betis away matches against promoted teams. Real Betis have lost 7/10 away matches.
- Granada are 3rd early season. Only 2 losses came v Sevilla and Real Madrid. 3 consecutive home wins.
- 5 clean sheets in 7 matches for newly promoted Granada.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime all season.
- Only 2 wins for Betis came at home.They failed to score, and kept only one clean sheet, in one match.
- Angles in? Yet again, the market is non-committal about a newly promoted side. But they are having a great start to the season. Will that continue today?
16:00 - Levante v Espanyol - 2.1 Levante
- 1st half outcome: Levante have won the first half in 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams and they have scored first in 7/9 such matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Espanyol away matches against middle-third teams.
- Only 4 losses for Levante all came away from home.
- 2 wins and 2 draws at home for Levante.
- Only 1 win for Espanyol all season. 4 losses in 5 matches.
- They have failed to score in each of their last 3 matches.
- Angles? 4 of Espanyol's losses this season came at home v the current top 7. Tough start and false position? 2nd bottom.
- They failed to score in 6/7 matches v 15th and higher. Lay Espanyol if Espanyol score first? Will they score a 2nd goal?
18:30 - Sevilla v Getafe - 1.8 Sevilla
- 1st goal: Sevilla have scored first in 12/17 home matches while Getafe have lost the first half in 5/8 away matches against top-six teams. Sevilla have won 13/20 home matches.
- 3 losses in 5 matches for Sevilla. 2 consecutive home wins.
- Sevilla failed to score only against Barcelona and Real Madrid.
- Only 2 losses for Getafe came v Atl Madrid and Barcelona. 2 consecutive wins v Sociedad and Leganes.
- Loss, Draw, Draw, Win away Both teams scored last 3 matches.
- Angles? I cannot discount Getafe in this mood. Both sides only losing to elite top 3 sides should make for a keen match. No strong angles I'm afraid.
21:00 - Osasuna v Valencia - 2.8 both sides
- -2.5 goals: Bottom-half promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 52% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15. There have been -2.5 goals in 12/20 Valencia away matches. Valencia have scored first in 6/8 away matches against promoted teams.
- 2.8 suggests leaving this alone. Yet again, we see a newly promoted side and a market unable to take an opinion.
- 2 losses only for Osasuna came away from home. 3 draws and a win at home for Osasuna.
- Valencia have only lost, away, to Celta Vigo and Barcelona.
- 0-1 and 1-1 last 2 away for Valencia.
- Angles? Logic suggests the long -standing Primeira Liga side Valencia are the ones to be with. The market though has no opinion here. Valencia did beat newly promoted Mallorca 2-0, albeit at home.
12:15 - Heerenveen v FC GRONINGEN - 2.04 Heerenveen
- Match outcome: Heerenveen have drawn 7/9 home matches against middle-third teams while Groningen have drawn the first half in 5/8 away matches against top-six teams. There have been +1.5 goals in 7/13 Groningen away matches.
- 2 losses for Heerenveen came away.
- 3 draws and a win at home. 1-0-1-1-1 goals scored at home must be a concern for Heerenveen.
- 3 wins in 4 sees them in good nick.
- Groningen have won their last 3...home matches but lost their last 3 away matches.
- They have failed to score only twice.
- Groningen have not met 5th-13th away yet.
- Angles? If Heerenveen cannot conjure up 2 goals at home, they are limited to 1-0 and 1-1 (if they don't lose). You may want to speculatively lay Heerenveen if they score first and cover the 1-0 just in case that 2nd goal does not appear.
14:30 - PSV v Az Alkmaar - 1.9 PSV
- Match outcome: PSV have won 18/20 home matches while AZ Alkmaar have lost 8/8 away matches against Big Two teams. PSV have won by two or more goals in 8/10 home matches.
- A top clash is usually hard to get a handle on.
- Only 1 loss for Utrecht came in their last match away at Utrecht.
- 4 wins and a draw at home for PSV.
- They failed to score only in that last match.
- Only 2 losses for AZ who lost their last match, at home, v Heerenveen.
- Win, Loss, Win, Win, Draw away from home for AZ.
- They failed to score in only one match.
- AZ have scored and conceded without winning v top 7 this season, PSV are 2nd.
- Angles? AZ may score but should not win. A simple angle here.
14:30 - Sparta Rotterdam v FC Utrecht - 2.16 Utrecht
- +2.5 goals: Promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 60% of home matches against top-six teams since 2014-15. There have been +2.5 goals in 13/17 Utrecht away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 7/11 Utrecht away matches.
- Both sides have had only 3 losses this season.
- 3 wins and a loss v Ajax at home for Sparta this season. Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- 8 over 2.5 goals matches for Sparta.
- Their 3 wins have come at home v 12th and lower.
- 9 of 11 goals scored at home came 2nd half for Sparta.
- 3 losses for Utrecht v VVV, Twente and Vitesse.
- No win in 4 sees 2 losses away. Utrecht have scored in every match.
- Angles? This should be a tester for Sparta whose wins have come at home v 12th and lower. They play 5th today. If Sparta score, lay them. Utrecht are on a 10 match scoring sequence.
- Over 2.5 goals could occur. and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market is a statistical play.
16:45 - Ajax v Feyenoord - 1.3 Ajax
- Match outcome: Ajax have won 11/12 home matches against middle-third teams while Feyenoord have lost 6/8 away matches against Big Two teams. Ajax have had W/W double results in 9/10 home matches against middle-third team.
- Top team clashes could see both teams cancel each other out. Ajax have a peculiar habit for struggling first half when ultra short odds, then getting their expected 2/3 goals 2nd half.
- Ajax are unbeaten. 4 0-0's at halftime in their last 5 matches.
- 5-4-5-2 goals scored at home. 3 clean sheets at home.
- Ajax have scored in every match.
- Feyenoord have been poor. 5 score draws, 2 defeats and 3 wins. A loss away to the likes of Fortuna Sittard latest sums up their season. Feyenoord have been unable to score that 2nd goal home or away v the top 7.
- Angles? Market looks right but a 0-0 at halftime would not surprise. It would at fulltime. Feyenoord have not scored a 2nd goal v the top 7 and meet top of the league today. 2 goals minimum expected of Ajax today.
PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA
16:00 - Tondela v Benfica - 1.32 Benfica
- Match outcome: Tondela have lost 10/12 home matches against Big Three teams while Benfica have won 10/10 away matches. Benfica have had W/W double results in 6/10 away matches.
- Wins for Tondela came away from home. Loss, Draw, Loss at home for Tondela.
- All wins for Benfica bar a loss v Porto. 5 clean sheets.
- Angles? Early season but Benfica look to be clicking defensively and in attack and should win with ease.
18:30 - Porto v Famalicao - 1.27 Porto
- Match outcome: FC Porto have won 15/16 home matches and they have won by two or more goals in 9/12 home matches. Top-six promoted teams have conceded first in 56% of away matches against Big Three teams since 2014-15.
- Only 1 loss for Porto came in the first match of the season. All wins otherwise, and 5 clean sheets.
- They meet top of the table, newly promoted Famalicao. All wins bar a 1-1 v Guimaraes. Even in meeting one of the Big 3 (Benfica, Porto, Sporting), Famalicao beat Sporting Lisbon.
- Angles? A fascinating match. The market is not convinced that Famalicao's excellent start, and beating of a top 3 side, is going to see them beating Porto. Well worth monitoring. If Porto score first, the value is in laying them and bucking the market.
21:00 - Sporting Lisbon v Guimaraes - 1.88 Sporting Lisbon
- Match outcome: Sporting CP have won 15/20 home matches while Vitoria S.C. have lost 7/8 away matches against Big Three teams. Vitoria S.C. have lost by two or more goals in 9/14 away matches against Big Three teams.
- 2 consecutive home losses for Sporting. They have scored and conceded in all bar last match.
- Sporting have scored in every match.
- 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- Only 1 loss for Guimaraes came against Porto.
- 3-0 loss, 1-1 draw, 1-3 win away for Guimaraes.
- They failed to score only against Porto and only kept a clean sheet last match.
- Angles? Sporting are wobbly at home. I think both teams could score but note Guimaraes did lose to Porto. I would take a chance on Sporting Lisbon today. They cannot afford a 3rd consecutive loss at home.