See you throughout the day for a coupon missing those wise Europeans who decide to take Xmas off, leaving only the Sturdy Brits and Bonkers Belgians. I thought yesterday's Telegram session was good on the whole, the only major slip up (bar the very speculative late lays) was Nottingham failing to score. That could have been avoided had I paid more attention to Birmingham's 0-0's away v teams near Nottingham Forest in the league.
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
12:00 - Leeds v Burnley - 1.73 Leeds
- Only 3 wins in 11 matches for Leeds. 3 defeats in 4 matches, it is either emphatic goal filled win, or emphatic goal filled defeat.
- Which Leeds turns up today? Here are their recent concessions - 4-4 0-1-3-2-2-6 goals.
- 14th v 16th, Leeds have 2 wins and a draw at home v 12th and lower.
- 67% of Leeds goals at home came 2nd half.
- But they meet the new Burnley. Take away the Man City loss and Burnley have conceded 0-0-1-0-0-1 goals. For the first time since the opening day of the season, Burnley also scored 2 goals.
- Angles? This is attack v defence if ever I saw it. Against attack minded sides like Leicester, Chelsea and Man City, Burnley conceded 4-3-5 goals. So decide whether you like the new defensive Burnley, or quite simply their game plan does not work v 'on the front foot' teams like Leeds. A fascinating match of typical attack v defence.
14:15 - West Ham v Brighton - 2.37 West Ham
- West Ham's last 4 defeats have come v established top 5 sides so on that basis they should feel confident today.
- Only Man Utd have beaten West Ham in the last 6 home matches.
- West Ham have failed to score only 1st and last matches.
- West Ham have scored in their last 6 home matches.
- 10th v 17th. 3 wins, a draw and a loss for West Ham at home v 9th and lower.
- 6/8 West Ham goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- Only 2 wins for Brighton.
- They have kept only 3 clean sheets.
- All of Brighton's defeats have come v the top 7.
- Wins v 9th to 12th away, and draws v 13th and lower away.
- Angles? Another tough market and why? Because West Ham only lose to the Big 5, and tend to score BUT Brighton this season tend to lose exclusively to the top 7 and meet 10th today so must be given a chance on that basis.
16:30 - Liverpool v West Brom - 1.12 Liverpool
- 1st v 19th and the market does not think the Sam Allardyce revolution will begin for the Baggies away at Liverpool.
- Liverpool have scored and conceded in all bar 2 matches at home and have scored 2+ goals in every match, all wins.
- I have to cut this match short because of the New Manager for West Brom who might instil drastic changes not in keeping with previous form lines.
19:15 - Wolves v Tottenham - 2.20 Tottenham
- 3 defeats in 4 matches for Wolves. Only 1 loss in 6 matches at home for them was a 0-1 Villa win.
- Wolves have conceded in their last 7 matches.
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home for Wolves, none at fulltime.
- 11th v 6th. Only 1 win home and away for Wolves v the top 10. They have scored and conceded at home in 3 matches v the top 8.
- 75% goals scored, 71% goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- A draw and 2 losses last 3 matches for Tottenham who were emphatic in the League Cup v Stoke.
- 2 draws and a loss away for Tottenham. Tottenham have only lost v the top 4.
- Angles? Tottenham losses are exclusively v the top 4. If that continues, then worst case for Tottenham will be a score draw.
- Strong 2nd half goal trends in Wolves home matches.
BELGIAN JULIPER LEAGUE
12:30 - Antwerp v Charleroi - 2.12 Antwerp
- 6th v 3rd.
- 3 consecutive defeats for Antwerp ended in a win latest.
- 2 consecutive home defeats without scoring.
- Only 2 clean sheets for Antwerp. One came last match.
- Antwerp have conceded last 7 at home. 6th v 3rd today and it's 100% defeats for Antwerp v the top 4. With a 2-0 loss v Charleroi last time.
- 7 goals scored at home first 15 mins for Antwerp.
- 3 consecutive home wins for Charleroi. Puts to bed a run where they failed to score in 3/4 matches.
- 2 consecutive away wins too.
- Both teams have scored in Charleroi's last 6 away matches.
- Only 2 away losses for Charleroi v 2nd and 12th. They have not met 6th-11th away.
- 14 of 18 Charleroi goals scored away came 2nd half.
- Angles? 100% loss record for Antwerp v the top 4 but only 1 match played at home. I do personally like Charleroi's momentum away - 2 wins - and overall - 3 wins. Both teams do score in Charleroi away matches and Antwerp look more likely to score first.
- If Antwerp lead at halftime, remember Charleroi have scored 14 away goals in the 2nd half.
15:00 - Genk v Waasland-Beveren - 1.29 Genk
- Only 3 losses all season for Genk.
- 8 wins and a loss last 9 matches for Genk.
- 6 wins and a draw last 7 at home for Genk.
- Genk have failed to score in only 2 matches, one was that recent defeat to Anderlecht.
- Genk have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 7 home matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home for Genk.
- 2nd v 15th. Genk's only defeat at home came v 1st.
- 1-1 last head to head.
- 15 of 23 goals scored by Genk at home came 2nd half.
- 2 consecutive defeats for Beveren ended a run of 3 wins.
- Those defeats were 3-0.
- No 0-0 at halftime away for Beveren.
- Only 1 win home and away v the top 9 for Beveren.
- Angles. The market looks right here. Score draw worst case for Genk today you feel. 2+ goals a real possibility.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
17:15 - Anderlecht v Kfco Beerschot Wilrijk - 1.79 Anderlecht
- Only 3 defeats for Anderlecht who did lose the last match 1-0 v Charleroi.
- 2 consecutive home wins for Anderlecht. 3 wins in 4 matches at home.
- No defeat in 9 at home for Anderlecht.
- 56% of home matches saw a 0-0 at halftime.
- Anderlecht lost 2-1 v Beerschot earlier this season.
- All 6 goals conceded at home by Anderlecht came 2nd half.
- Only 1 draw for Beerschot was a 5-5.
- 2 wins and now 2 defeats. One of those 2 wins was a 2-1 home win v Anderlecht!!
- Both teams have scored in 11/12 Beer matches.
- They kept only 1 clean sheet.
- Beerschot have conceded last 13 matches and scored and conceded last 6 away matches.
- They have not had a 0-0 at halftime all season.
- Solid at home v the top 5 - 3/3 wins, Beerschot did beat 1st but conceded 3-3-5 goals in defeats away v 3rd, 6th and 8th.
- Angles? Revenge in mind for Anderlecht after Beerschot beat them very recently 2-1. Why may be in Anderlecht's favour is Beer's conceding 3-3-5 goals in defeat away to 3rd, 6th and 8th.
- Anderlecht are yet to concede first half so logically if they are to lead in this match it could be first half.
- Both teams to score a very strong angle.
19:45 - Yellow-Red Mechelen v Royal Mouscron-Peruwelz - 1.63 Mechelen
- Only 3 wins for Mechelen this season and one did come v Leuven last match, a match in which the market got it right. I did quite like Leuven's 2 goal habit but the market inserted Mechelen as favs and they justified that. So pay heed to the market today, again for a team whose form is poor, only 4 wins.
- Mechelen have conceded in their last 11 matches and last 5 at home.
- 56% 0-0 at halftime at home.
- Mechelen are 16th and play 17th today. Their only home win v 18th but they have scored 2 goals in all matches v 13th and lower at home.
- 18 of 20 goals conceded at home by Mechelen came 2nd half.
- Mouscron have done all of their 4 wins within the last 8 matches. 2 wins and a draw last 3 matches.
- Win, Loss Loss, Win away. 7 0-0's at halftime away for Mouscron.
- Angles? Both sides overwhelmingly concede 2nd half. Both sides have such a high % of 0-0's at halftime, we could back 0-0 pre match and hope this happens again so we can cash out.
- Again, Mechelen's odds as as much of a mystery to me as they were v Leuven, albeit latterly they won. Mouscron have started winning recently and are coming off the back of a win v Standard Liege no less. Respect the market and look at the in-play stats to ensure the market has it right this week.
TURKISH SUPER LIG
13:00 - Denizlispor v Ankaragucu - 2.18 Denizlispor
- 17th v 20th here. A couple of strugglers.
- 2 consecutive wins for Deniz were 2 of only 3 wins all season.
- That ended a run of 3 consecutive home defeats.
- Huge gap in form for Deniz who are yet to meet 11th and lower at home. But intriguingly they beat 18th and 21st away.
- Ankar's only wins recently came at home (only 2 ). 4 consecutive away defeats ended with a score draw.
- Against 14th and lower away, Ankar have had a 0-0, 1-0 loss and 1-1.
- Angles? Teams in the wrong side of the league is off putting. The huge gap in form is off putting. What I do like is Deniz's 2 wins away v 18th and 21st, considering they are playing 20th at home.
13:00 - Malatyaspor v Erzurum BB - 1.78 Malatyaspor
- 8th v 21st. Malat are unbeaten at home this season. They failed to score only twice.
- Win, Win, Win, Draw, Win at home.
- All home wins for Malat came v 13th and lower.
- 6/9 Malat goals scored at home came 1st half.
- 8 defeats in 10 for BB.
- 4 consecutive away defeats without scoring.
- All defeats away for BB came v 4th-10th, scoring just a single goal in 5.
- Angles? Unless I am missing something, 1.78 looks good value here for Malatyaspor v the bottom side BB. Huge shock were Malatyaspor fail to do the job today.
16:00 - Basaksehir v Kasimpasa - 1.56 Basaksehir
- 16th v 13th.
- 2-3-1-1-1 goals scored by Basaksehir recently without winning. 3-3-1-2-4 goals conceded is a real worry.
- Draw, Win, Win, Draw, Loss at home.
- They have scored and conceded in their last 8 matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home for Basaksehir.
- Basaksehir have only lost to the top 7 this season.
- 3 defeats in 4 for Kasimpasa without scoring. 3 consecutive away defeats.
- Kasimpasa have conceded in their last 7 away matches.
- Angles? I like the fact that Basaksehir only tend to lose to the top 7. Kasimpasa are conceding consistently away as well. Basaksehir's recent concession rate is poor but remember that context - top 7. On seasonal form, both teams could score with Basaksehir not losing.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
13:30 - FC Utrecht v AZ Alkmaar - 2.5 AZ
- An unappealing betting market.
- Only 1 loss in 6 matches for Utrecht, but only 1 win in 6 matches for Utrecht = 4 1-1 draws.
- Only 1 win in 8 came v Emmen latest and that was a good trading match as Emmen led in the first half.
- Only 1 home loss for Utrecht despite the poor form, came v Ajax. 2 consecutive home 1-1 draws.
- 5/8 goals scored by Utrecht at home came 2nd half.
- 7 wins in 8 for AZ.
- 3 consecutive away wins for AZ who are unbeaten away.
- 2+ goals scored by AZ last 6 away matches.
- 10/11 goals conceded away by AZ came 2nd half.
- Angles? Clash of 2 of the bigger sides in Holland sees 2.5 the favourite. Utrecht, despite winless recent form, have only lost to Ajax at home and 2 of their 3 defeats this season were v the top 2. They meet 5th today. No strong angles for me but obviously if AZ continue to score 2 goals away, then that is a solid foundation. Lay Utrecht if Utrecht lead today. I would be more confident in AZ equalising.