Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

All matches of interest for me begin at 12pm, 12:35pm and 19:00. I will do a short live chat webinar at 14:00 primarily to introduce you to Grand Slam tennis and the early morning scores. It's a great exercise in looking at potential shocks from the morning and whether the favourites fought back.
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4337186742551239692 is the link. Please register to attend at 14:00.

ENGLISH LEAGUE 1

15:00 - Charlton v Sunderland - 2.5 Sunderland

  • Play-Off Final at Wembley. What a prize! The market cannot split these 2.
  • In League One, Sunderland won 2-1 followed by a 1-1 draw.
  • Charlton's performance against the top 6 was unbeaten at home and they scored and conceded away 2-2, 2-1, 1-2, 2-1.
  • Of course today there is no home advantage.
  • Only 1 loss for Sunderland home and away v the top 7.
  • Personally, I would be with Sunderland if Charlton scored first.
  • There really is nothing to add form wise. Such an important match.

ITALIAN SERIA A - last match of the season

14:00 - Torino v Lazio - 2.4 Torino

  • There is an outside chance that Torino can get 6th spot and Europa League football but will need Roma to lose and a 4+ goal difference to be narrowed down. Nothing for Lazio to play for.
  • Only 2 defeats for Torino since 27th January 2019. Torino scored in their last 10 at home.6 wins and a loss for Torino at home v 3rd-11th.
  • Both teams scored in Lazio's last 5.5 defeats and a win for Lazio away v the top 8.
  • Dead rubber for me.

17:00 - Sampdoria v Juventus - 1.88 Juventus

  • Sampdoria cannot get any higher in the league. Juventus are Champions. Another dead rubber.
  • 3 1-1 draws and a loss for Juventus shows they have switched off. Do note that in the 3 1-1 draws, the opponents did score first.
  • No draw in 13 at home for Sampdoria.

19:30 - Atalanta v Sassuolo - 1.22 Atalanta

  • Plenty to play for for Atalanta. They will want to stave off a queue looking to dislodge Atalanta from a top 4 spot.

Atalanta (3rd)

  • Unbeaten in 12 and in 6 at home.
  • Scored in their last 5.
  • Losses at home v 2nd, 5th, 9th, 13th.
  • 2-6 win v Sassuolo earlier this season.
  • Poor home form v the top 9, with only 2 wins.

Sassuolo (10th)

  • Only 3 wins this 2019.
  • Only 1 win in 10 away.
  • Scored in their last 5 away.
  • 5 losses and a 0-0 away v the top 7.

Conclusions

  • Atalanta at home are not that hot but they have the need for the win and a very solid run of matches. I would expect an Atalanta win.

19:30 - Cagliari v Udinese - 2.45 Cagliari

  • Cagliari are safe. Udinese are going in the right direction.If Udinese draw, they are guaranteed safety. The goal difference between Udinese and 3rd bottom is marginal so if Udinese lose and Genoa win, Genoa could drag Udinese into the bottom 3. This does also involve Empoli.

Cagliari (13th)

  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 5 wins and 2 losses in their last 7 at home.
  • 7 wins and a draw at home v 11th and lower.
  • 2-0 loss to Udinese earlier this season.

Udinese (16th)

  • 2 consecutive wins at just the right time. One last push for a draw or win sees Udinese safe.
  • Conceded in their last 9 away.
  • Not beaten a top 18 side away.

Conclusions

  • No wonder it is 2.5 the favourite. Cagliari on seasonal form are expecting to beat 11th and lower at home. Excellent record.
  • But Udinese only need a draw or a win today despite no win v top 18 away.
  • 2 consecutive wins for Udinese suggests they are on track to go unbeaten today. Are you with the must-wins?

19:30 - Fiorentina v Genoa - 2.37 Fiorentina

  • Huge goal difference between Fiorentina and Genoa (3 points difference with Genoa bottom 3) suggests Fiorentina should not be harmed. Indeed a draw nails survival.
  • Genoa are more likely to bring Empoli into the relegation zone with a win as the goal difference is tighter.

Fiorentina (15th)

  • 5 consecutive defeats, 4 were 1-0.
  • No win in 13 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 at home.
  • No win in 13 and in 10 at home.
  • 3 wins and a loss at home v 16th and lower.

Genoa (18th)

  • 3 1-1 draws in 4 matches.
  • No win in 9 and in 8 away.
  • Conceded in their last 9 and last 6 away.
  • Not beaten a top 16 side away.

Conclusions

  • A draw sorts Fiorentina out but a feeling they are safe. Genoa must win. They are drawing of late but away from home are very poor. No win v the top 16 away. No win in 13 for Fiorentina.
  • Not for me. I would focus on this match via the in-play stats given that Genoa need a result.

19:30 - Inter Milan v Empoli - 1.38 Inter Milan

  • This is a must-win for Inter Milan in order to retain a top 4 Champions League place from the attentions of AC Milan predominantly.
  • This is a must-win for Empoli who have a one point lead 4th bottom over 3rd bottom and relegation.

Inter Milan (4th)

  • Only 2 losses in 11.
  • Only 1 loss in 7 at home but 3 draws in their last 4 matches. They cannot afford to draw today.
  • 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home (44%).
  • 5/5 wins at home v 15th and lower.
  • Clean sheets v 16th and lower.
  • 11 goals scored last 15 mins of home matches.

Empoli (17th)

  • Full steam ahead with 3 consecutive wins precisely at the right time. Keeping them out of the bottom 3 currently.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • All defeats bar a 0-0 away v top 8, failing to score in 5 matches.

Conclusions

  • A must win for both sides who, if they don't win, will be reliant on the mishaps of others.
  • Empoli are winning at the right time but their record v top 8 away is winless, failing to score in 5 matches. Inter Milan clean sheets v 16th and lower at home with 100% wins means Empoli will have to buck this trend for not scoring!. Advantage Inter on seasonal form but as this is a must-win for Empoli we cannot discount them too readily.

19:30 - Roma v Parma - 1.2 Roma

  • There is an outside chance that Roma can be caught in 6th (Torino are 4 points and a negative 4 goal difference behind). There is an outside chance of Roma entering the top 4. They need Inter to lose, oh and AC Milan to lose, and to make up a 6 goal difference.
  • Parma are safe as houses.
  • Roma are unbeaten in 7 matches.
  • 5 wins in 7 matches at home.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches.
  • Roma have scored last 13 at home.
  • only 2 home losses Roma v 2nd and 12th.
  • 0-2 win v Parma earlier this season.
  • Only 2 wins for Parma since 27th January were 1-0 home wins.
  • Parma have scored in 8 of their last 9 away matches, winning only 1.
  • v top 7 away, Parma have beaten 4th and 7th.
  • The market looks right here. Even if Parma score, they should not win. Roma I feel cannot get a Champions League place but stranger things have happened if they can ring up a big score and the Milan sides falter.

19:30 - Spal v AC Milan - 1.5 AC Milan

  • AC Milan are part of a quartet realistically vying for Champions league places. Atalanta and Inter occupy those places currently but only have a 1 point advantage.
  • SPAL are happy to be mid-table with no threats.
  • 2 consecutive defeats for SPAL. Win, Win, Win, Draw, Loss at home recently.
  • SPAL have scored in their last 10 matches and last 7 at home.
  • Watch out AC. SPAL, at their fighting best, beat 1st, 3rd, 6th and 8th at home. That was, though, when they were embroiled in the relegation battle. Will they be as intense today? It is the last match in front of home support v one of the big guns?
  • 13 of 18 goals scored by SPAL came 2nd half.
  • 3 consecutive wins for AC Milan who simply had to beat Frosinone last match and did.
  • Milan problems start away.0-1-1-0-1 goals scored recently away may not be enough to win today.
  • Only 2 wins away for Milan v the top 14 is a concern, in meeting 12th today.
  • This is no gimme for Milan today. A match worth following via the in-play stats. SPAL have been giant killing of late but that was when they had to fight. Today their battle is run and they are safe. Not so for Milan who are poor away from home but have the momentum of 3 consecutive wins, 2 at home.
  • Are you with the must wins? Or do you smell an upset (that's the value call particularly if Milan score first).

SPANISH SEGUNDA DIVISION - 3 matches remain

11:00 - Almeria v Alcorcon - 2.45 Almeria

  • An outside chance of top 6 for Almeria but realistically unlikely. Alcorcon cannot be dragged into the relegation fight. Dead rubber.

15:00 - Gimnastic v Elche - 2.05 Elche

  • Gimnastic cannot exit the bottom 3. Elche really cannot reach the top 6 so for me this is a dead rubber with 3 matches remaining.

17:00 - Tenerife v Oviedo - 2.10 Tenerife

  • Must win for both sides for differing reasons.

Tenerife (18th)

  • 4 losses in 5.
  • Conceded last 11 and last 7 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v the top 7 but lost to 9th and 10th.

Oviedo (18th)

  • Only 1 loss in 8.
  • 2 wins in 3 away were 0-1.
  • 5 wins and 2 defeats (19th and 21st) v 15th and lower away.

Conclusions

  • Tenerife need to avoid the relegation group. Oviedo are oh so close to top 6 so will be keen to win.
  • On seasonal form, there is a hint that Tenerife could get something. Solid v top 7 at home, they do though play an Oviedo with 5 wins and 2 defeats v 15th and lower. I will look with interest here. Tenerife note are conceding!

18:00 - Granada v Cadiz - 1.61 Granada

  • Must wins for both sides. Automation promotion spot to preserve for Granada. Top 6 to preserve for Cadiz.

Granada (2nd)

  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches.
  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 at home. Momentum.
  • Only 2 home losses v 7th and 9th.
  • Scored 2 goals only once at home v top 10 is a concern. But 4 1-0 wins suggests they can rely on defence.

Cadiz (6th)

  • 4 consecutive draws, 3 1-1.
  • Only 1 loss in 15.
  • 2 consecutive away 1-1's.
  • Not beaten top 11 away though so puts recent solid form into context.
  • Not scored 2nd goal away v top 11.

Conclusions

  • If we presume a 2nd goal may allude, then lay the first team to score and cover the 1-0 (if home team) or 0-1 (if away team).
  • I do not personally expect Granada to lose given Cadiz's recent solid form is in marked contrast to an inability to beat the top 11 away.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

17:00 - Fenerbahce v Antalyaspor - 1.6 Fenerbahce

  • Last match of the season. A big improvement from Fenerbahce has seen them break free from the relegation zone. Nothing for Antalyaspor for play for either.
  • 3 consecutive wins Fenerbahce who are unbeaten at home v the top 11 (playing 6th today). Add to the fact that mental home support and I do not think that Fener will be let off the hook today even if this is a dead rubber.

17:00 - Goztepe v Ankaragucu - 1.36 Goztepe

  • All hands to the pump for Goztepe. A win guarantees survival. Draw or lose and Bursaspor win, Goztepe will be relegated.
  • Ankara have nothing to play for.

Goztepe (15th)

  • 2 wins and 2 draws last 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 6th -16th - perfick if that can be replicated today.
  • 0-3 win over Ankara last time.

Ankara (13th)

  • Only 2 wins in 9.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 recent matches, winning only one.
  • 3 losses in 4 away.
  • Lost away to 14th and 16th so can struggle v the strugglers.

Conclusions

  • It's in Goztepe's hands. They are playing a side they have already beaten 0-3. And a team in the league where they are unbeaten, and a team who have lost away to 14th and 16th. The Perfick Storm? We must favour Goztepe today.

CHINESE SUPER LEAGUE - 2 early kick-offs I have ignored.

12:35 - Shandong Luneng v Guangzhou RF - 1.5 Shandong

Shandong Luneng (4th)

  • 3 wins in 4.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • 2+ goals scored in recent wins.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 1-2-2-2-1-2 goals before halftime recently.
  • Not played the top 8 at home.

RF (8th)

  • 3 wins in 4.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats ended with a win.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 10 and last 6 away.
  • v top 7 away, 4 defeats conceding 2+ goals and a 2-2.

Conclusions

  • A potentially muddling match because Shandong have no form v top 8 at home so their lofty position, like RF's, is down to beating teams currently 10th and lower.
  • Today both sides meet top 8 ,and RF have a consistently poor record away v top 7, conceding 2+ goals in 4 defeats and a 2-2 draw. Is THAT the form we rely on here today, albeit with that home team gap in form?
  • You may expect a goal before halftime based on potential for goals and Shandong's recent record.

12:35 - Shanghai SIPG v Beijing Guoan - 2.26 Shanghai

Shanghai (2nd)

  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 at home.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 2+goals scored in each of their last 5 at home.
  • Not played top 3 yet.
  • 9 of 11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Beijing Guoan (1st)

  • 100% wins.
  • 7 clean sheets.
  • 5 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • 4/5 away wins were 0-1.
  • Not played top 2 yet.

Conclusions

  • First clash of the big 2 will tell us a story.
  • Beijing ultra strong defensively and 4 0-1 away wins betrays likely tactics. They beat 3rd 0-1 away.
  • Shanghai scored 2+ goals in all home matches but are yet to meet the top 3.
  • Fascinating, if not immediately tradable, match.
  • Clean sheets may suggest backing 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 pre match? Hope defenses out in this top 2 clash?

FINNISH VEIKKAUSLIIGA

16:30 - HJK Helsinki v KPV Kokkola - 1.3 HJK

  • HJK are one of my 'latch onto' teams.

HJK (6th)

  • Only 2 wins came first 2 matches of the season.
  • Unbeaten at home. 3 consecutive home score draws and proving reliable insofar as coming back from their opponents leading.

KPV (12th)

  • Currently bottom of the league.
  • No win. All defeats bar 3 draws. 2 of the draws last 2 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 matches.

Conclusions

  • score draw worst case for HJK today. They really should eye 3 points but this is a faltering HJK (when we remember they are usually default Champions).

NORWEGIAN ELITESERIEN

17:00 - Mjondalen v Haugesund - 2.6 both sides

  • Mjondalen another of my 'latch onto' teams.
  • A thoroughly entertaining mess.

Mjondalen (12th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 4-5, 1-1, 1-0, 2-2 at home.
  • 2-2 and 3-2 loss recently.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3 of 4 defeats came v the current top 4.
  • 2 goals at least conceded home and away v 3rd-13th.

Haugesund (8th)

  • Unbeaten in 3.
  • 2 goals scored away in 3/4 matches. 2 wins and 1 loss.
  • Lost away to 9th and 11th. Beat 10th and 13th away 0-2.

Conclusions

  • I expect Mjondalen to concede and they could concede 2 goals so I feel they are layable if leading 1-0 or even 2-0.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

14:00 - Djurgarden v Ostersund - 1.52 Djurgarden

Djurgarden (5th)

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 2 consecutive wins to nil.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Home loss v current 3rd. Unbeaten home and away v 7th and lower.

Ostersunds (9th)

  • 2 draws and then 2 defeats.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • 2 consecutive defeats conceding 7 goals.
  • Only away win v 15th.
  • Not beaten top 7 home or away.

Conclusions

  • Early doors in Sweden but it looks as if they cope with current 7th and lower (unbeaten) and Ostersunds do not beaten top 7 home or away. I'll follow that angle.