DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 26, 2017
A couple of obvious ones yesterday. Belgium equalised late v 10 man Greece. Hope you delayed and it paid! France and Luxembourg were locked in a 1-1. Did you play and if so, how? Correct scores? Over x.5 goals? Netherlands returned to their erratic worst.
More short priced favourites today. Can Azerbaijan frustrate Ze Germans as Greece did to Belgium? Both Greece and Azerbaijan are very defensive sides.
16:00 - San Marino v Czech Republic - 1.02 Czech
- Czechs win, but can we get a correct score out of this? San Marino have conceded 1-4-4-8 goals in their 4 World Cup qualifiers.
- San Marino have scored only 1 goal in 10 home matches.
- The Czechs have been poor this campaign with 2 0-0's, a 3-0 loss to Germany and a 2-1 win v Norway.
- 0-3 appeals as an opener, 0-4 and 0-5 as I cannot see the Czechs matching the 8 goals scored by Germany v San Marino.
16:00 - England v Lithuania - 1.14 England
- At Group F, England are top on 10 points with 3 wins and a draw.
- England are unbeaten since 2012 in World Cup qualifiers.
- England have kept 7 clean sheets in 8 World Cup qualifiers. Begin with a clean sheet and keep faith in the forward line.
- 16 wins and a 1-1 for England in their last 17 home matches.
- 2-0, 2-0, 3-0 last 3 homes.
- Lithuania score drew with Slovenia and Scotland but the loss (4-0) v Slovakia is an indication that they are real minnows.
- England should match Slovakia. 1.14 odds suggests 3-0, 3-1 and any other home scoreline. The odds get better the longer you delay.
- I just hope this will not be a functional 2-0 win as per the Malta game.
16:00 - Azerbaijan v Germany - 1.14 Germany
- Germany are qualifying with ease in Group C.
- Azerbaijan are 3rd and equal on 7 points with Northern Ireland. These 2 are running for 2nd place only.
- Azerbaijan beat San Marino and Norway 1-0, drew 0-0 with Czechs and lost 4-0 to Northern Ireland.
- Germany are unbeaten since October 2001 in World Cup qualifiers.
- 4 wins to nil scoring 3-3-2-8 goals.
- We should expect a German win to nil, Azerbaijan will set up to frustrate and I hope they frustrate for long enough to allow us to, say, back over 3.5 goals at enhanced odds, or back good ole 0-3, 1-3 and any other away score at enhanced odds.
16:00 - Armenia v Kazakhstan - 1.89 Armenia
- These are the bottom 2 in Group E and My (ample) gut tells me to avoid this match. I will give the World Cup qualifier form a quick look.
- Only 2 draws for Armenia in World Cup qualifiers since March 2005.
- 3 defeats and a 3-2 win v Montenegro for Armenia is poor form.
- Note though that Poland could only beat a 10 man Armenia via a red card, penalty and 90th minute winner.
- Denmark could only beat Armenia 1-0.
- Only 3 wins for Kazakhstan in World Cup qualifiers since 2004 came v Andorra (twice) and Faroe Islands. Poor stuff indeed.
- At home the Kazaks are tough to beat but away from home, the have conceded 5 and 4 goals in defeat.
- I think on form that Armenia could win today. Were this a Kazak home match I would side with the Kazaks.
- Remember Montenegro took a 0-2 lead v Armenia who went on to win 3-2. I remember that match as a profitable trade. More of the same today! Lay the Kazaks if they score first.
18:45 - Northern Ireland v Norway - 2.4 Northern Ireland
- Northern Ireland are 2nd to Germany in Group C. Great stuff! Norway have collected only 3 points.
- Northern Ireland lost 2-0 to Germany but kept 3 clean sheets in the other 3 matches.
- Norway have only beaten San Marino. They lost to Germany, lost 1-0 to Azerbaijan and 2-1 to the Czech Republic.
- I think Northern Ireland could get a result today. They have a defensive solidity against a Norwegian side who are simply having a really poor World Cup qualifier campaign.
- Lay Norway if Norway score first.
18:45 - Montenegro v Poland - 1.96 Poland
- 2nd v 1st in Group E. This is a competitive Group between 2nd and 4th.
- Montenegro drew 1-1 with Romania, beat Kazaks 5-0, beat Denmark 0-1 and lost 3-2 to Armenia after taking a 0-2 lead.
- Poland are defensively weak. Thank the Poles for Robert Lewandowkski.
- 2-2 v Kazakhstan saw Poland 0-2 up, 3-2 win v Denmark again saw the Danes score 2 after the Poles went 3-0 up. 2-1 v Armenia saw a Pole own goal and 90th minute winner v 10 men for 2/3rds of that match.
- Polish defence clicked with a 0-3 v Romania.
- I will be laying Poland if they lead 0-2 or 0-3 here today. They seem to think the job is done. Montenegro showed in their 2 goals against a usually defensively sound Armenia, that they have goals in them.
- If Montenegro lead, any team with Robert Lewandowski upfront always has a chance of equalising.
- So, lay Poland 0-2 or 0-3 up and lay Montenegro if Montenegro score first.
18:45 - Scotland v Slovenia - 2.4 Scotland
- Scotland are struggling in Group E and Slovenia are flying, 2nd only to England.
- Scotland beat Malta 1-5, drew 1-1 with Lithuania, lost 3-0 to Slovakia and lost 3-0 to England.
- The 1-1 v Lithuania was at home and a great trading game IF you kept faith in Scotland not losing.
- Slovenia are unbeaten. They drew 2-2 with Lithuania after being 2-0 down. They beat Slovenia 1-0, beat Malta 0-1 and drew 0-0 with England.
- Slovenia look to be a tough team to score against. On that basis, I fear for Scotland today. 1-0 / 0-1 are possible scorelines today although I would throw in a 0-3 here given Scotland's 3-0 losses v 1st and 3rd in this Group.
18:45 - Romania v Denmark - 2.7 Denmark
- 4th and 3rd in Group E and both teams have a real chance of qualification from this Group. This makes this match a must-win for both sides. The need to take points from a rival.
- Romanian and Danish form is tough to read. Romanians drew 1-1 v Montenegro; Romania beat Armenia 0-5; drew 0-0 with Kazakhstan; and lost 0-3 v Poland.
- Denmark have not had a draw. 1-0 win v Armenia, 3-2 loss v Poland, 0-1 loss v Montenegro and 4-1 win v Kazakhstan.
- A match I will bow out of I'm afraid. I would lay any late draw. Why? Because these sides need 3 points.
18:45 - Malta v Slovakia - 1.16 Slovakia
- 1.16 odds suggests 3/4 goals minimum from Slovakia and a possible trade 1-3, 0-3 and any other away score if we see a concerted period of 0-0.
- Bar England and Slovenia, it is tight amongst the rest in Group F.
- Slovakia simply must win.
- 2-2-1-2 goals conceded by Malta without scoring so far is something to work with.
- Slovakia only lost 1-0 to England and Slovenia and beat Scotland and Lithuania 3-0 and 4-0 albeit at home.
- 0-2 is a good starter today given Malta's away performance v England where they only lost 2-0. 0-3 and 0-4 are the others. I expect a win to nil - Malta are yet to score in this campaign.
- Remember the trading angle? If 0-0 for a while, back 0-3, 1-3 and any other away score.