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It looks as if I was talking to myself for an hour or so in yesterday's live chat webinar. My apologies. I will point out some of the calls at the DRT Facebook Review/Preview video.
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SPANISH LA LIGA

11am - Atletico Madrid v Leganes - 1.47 Atl Madrid

  • Match outcome: Atl. Madrid have won 7/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Leganes have lost 11/14 away matches against top-six teams. Leganes have conceded first in 14/16 away matches against top-six teams.

Atl Madrid - 3rd

  • 3 consecutive wins ended with a coupon busting loss v Eibar last match.
  • 4 wins in 5 at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home was a 0-1 v 1st.
  • 0-1 win v Leganes last time these 2 met.
  • 2+ goals scored in all bar 1 match at home v 8th and lower.

Leganes - 19th

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • No away win.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 9 away.
  • 2 consecutive away draws.
  • 100% losses v the top 5.

Conclusions

  • Leganes have a 100% defeat record v the top 5, failing to score in all bar 1 of those matches.
  • Atl Madrid's last match was a shock defeat v Eibar. Any reason for that? If not, we expect a home win, possibly to nil. 2 goals from Atl Madrid?

13:00 - Celta Vigo v Eibar - 2.06 Celta Vigo

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Celta Vigo home matches against bottom-half teams and in 10/14 Eibar away matches. Celta Vigo have conceded first in 10/17 home matches.

Celta Vigo - 18th

  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home draws.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • 50% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 4/4 draws at home v 13th and lower.
  • 2-0 loss to Eibar last time these 2 met.
  • 5 of 7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Eibar - 16th

  • 2 wins in 3 came at home. Beat Atl Madrid last match. Quite a scalp.
  • Only away win v 19th.
  • 5 of 7 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Both sides not quite reliable are they? What do we make of Eibar's recent win v Atl Madrid, albeit at home and will that bring momentum into today's match?
  • Celta Vigo are having trouble beating sides 13th and lower. Enough to lay them if they score first? But then Eibar have just the one win away all season.

15:00 - Getafe v Betis - 2.08 Getafe

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 12/14 Getafe home matches against middle-third teams while Real Betis have drawn the first half in 8/12 away matches against top-six teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 11/16 Real Betis away matches against top-six teams.

Getafe - 5th

  • 2 losses in 3 matches saw Getafe fail to score.
  • 4/5 losses this season came v the top 4.
  • 1-1 last head to head.

Real Betis - 11th

  • 2 losses in 10 matches came v Sevilla and Atl Madrid.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 away win v 17th.

Conclusions

  • Betis away form is poor but their recent form is solid. Only Sevilla and Atl Madrid have beaten them.
  • Getafe have only tended to lose to the top 4 and are solid at home. It is an interesting match in which Betis's recent form cannot be discounted.

17:30 - Sociedad v Mallorca - 1.47 Sociedad

  • 1st goal: Real Sociedad have scored first in 8/11 home matches while Mallorca have lost 8/9 away matches. Mallorca have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 away matches.

Sociedad - 6th

  • Only 1 win in 5 was a 3-4.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home (22%).
  • 0-1 win v Mallorca earlier.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.

Mallorca - 17th

  • Newly promoted.
  • 5 losses and a draw ended with a win v Valencia last match.
  • 8 losses and a draw away.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win in 9 away.
  • Conceded last 11 and last 9 away.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • I tend to oppose newly promoted sides but what to make of Mallorca's 4-1 win v Valencia. Simply a post Winter break anomaly?
  • Sociedad are unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

20:00 - Valladolid v Real Madrid - 1.45 Real Madrid

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 10/12 Valladolid home matches and they have drawn the first half in 8/14 home matches. Real Madrid have conceded first in 5/8 away matches against bottom-half teams.

Valladolid - 15th

  • 5 draws in 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home draws.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • No win in 8 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side home and away.
  • 5 draws and a loss a home v the top 13.
  • Failed to score at home in 3 matches v the top 6.

Real Madrid - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 11 and last 5 away.
  • 50% 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 1-1 earlier this season.

Conclusions

  • A few draws for Valladolid v the top 13 at home suggests a draw is best case scenario today.
  • I do not expect Real Madrid to lose. Valladolid, remember, have failed to score in 3 matches at home v the top 6.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - Nantes v Bordeaux - 2.00 Nantes

  • 1st half outcome: Nantes have drawn the first half in 10/13 home matches and there have been -2.5 goals in 10/14 Nantes home matches against middle-third teams. Bordeaux have conceded first in 9/10 away matches against top-six teams.

20:00 - Lille v Paris St-G - 1.42 PSG

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Lille home matches against top-six teams. Paris St-G have won 7/11 away matches against top-six teams.

Lille - 5th

  • 2 consecutive defeats after 4 wins.
  • 4 wins in 5 at home.
  • No defeat in 10 at home.
  • 8 1-0 leads at halftime at home. Not played top 3 at home.
  • 2-0 loss v PSG earlier.

PSG - 1st

  • 3+ goals scored last 5 matches.
  • 3+ goals scored last 3 away matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored last 13 matches and last 10 away.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 8 goals scored away last 15 minutes of matches.

Conclusions

  • With PSG's current score pattern of 3+ goals, they could simply blow Lille away. Do remember that Lille are unbeaten at home. Will they offer some resistance?
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Werder Bremen v Hoffenheim - 2.42 Werder

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 W. Bremen home matches against top-half teams and +3.5 goals in 9/16 W. Bremen home matches. Hoffenheim have won 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Werder Bremen - 16th

  • Only 4 wins but did beat Dusseldorf on their return from the Winter Break.
  • That was the first clean sheet of the season.
  • No 0-0 this season.
  • No win in 6 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 8 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • v 4th to 12th home and away, both teams scored in all matches, and we had 4 2-2's and 3 3-2 scorelines.
  • 3-2 v the Hoff last time these 2 met (loss).

Hoffenheim - 8th

  • 2 wins and a loss last 3 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 away.
  • Scored in their last 12 and last 6 away.
  • 0-2, 1-2, 2-3 away v 12th and lower.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • No 0-0 this season. Remember that if somehow this is 0-0 at halftime.
  • You may want to back 2-2, 3-2, 2-3 pre match given 7 times we have seen that scoreline in Werder Bremen matches 4th-12th home and away.

17:00 - Leverkusen v Fortuna Dusseldorf - 1.41 Leverkusen

  • 1st half outcome: F Dusseldorf have lost the first half in 4/5 away matches against top-six teams and they have conceded first in 5/5 such matches. Leverkusen have won 8/11 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Leverkusen - 6th

  • 2 wins, 2 losses, 2 wins last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 6 matches at home.
  • Conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • 1-3 win v Dusseldorf earlier.
  • 2-3-3-4 goals scored home and away v the bottom 3.
  • 8 of 12 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Dusseldorf - 17th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • No win in 8 away.
  • Conceded in their last 8 and last 9 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 15 of 22 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Leverkusen have consistently scored 2+ goals v the bottom 3 and that should be enough to seal the win today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market 8/12 home goals scored first half. No 0-0 at halftime away Dusseldorf.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Inter v Cagliari - 1.33 Inter

  • 1st goal: Inter Milan have scored first in 10/13 home matches while Cagliari have lost 16/20 away matches against top-six teams. Cagliari have lost by two or more goals in 11/18 away matches against top-six teams.

Inter - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss came v Juventus.
  • 4 draws in 6 matches. 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • 2 draws in 3 at home.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • 1-2 win v Cagliari earlier this season.

Cagliari - 6th

  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • 3 2-2's last 5 aways.
  • Only 3 clean sheets, failed to score only 3 matches.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Cagliari have scored and conceded in 3 matches v the top 3, losing 2 and drawing 1 so note that if Cagliari score first.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

14:00 - Parma v Udinese - 2.36 Parma

  • Match outcome: Parma have won 6/10 home matches against middle-third teams while Udinese have lost 8/8 away matches against top-half teams. Udinese have lost by two or more goals in 7/11 away matches against top-half teams.

Parma - 7th

  • 2 losses in 6 matches came away.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals at home.
  • 50% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 11th and lower.
  • 1-3 win v Udinese earlier.
  • 10 of 15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Udinese - 14th

  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 matches.
  • 4 losses in 5 matches away.
  • No draw in 8 away.
  • All defeats away v the top 8.

Conclusions

  • Udinese have lost all away matches v the top 8. Parma have lost only 1 match home and away v 11th and lower.
  • Parma tend to score more % of home goals 2nd half so remember that.

14:00 - Verona v Lecce - 1.72 Verona

  • Match outcome: Verona have won 3/5 home matches against bottom-six teams while Lecce have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Lecce away matches.

Verona - 10th

  • Draw, win, win, draw last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches at home came v Roma.
  • Scored in their last 10 matches and last 5 at home.
  • 50% 0-0 at halftime at home and only 1 at fulltime.
  • 100% wins v 16th and lower home and away.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Lecce - 17th

  • Only 3 wins came away.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches away.
  • Beat 9th, 13th and 18th away.
  • 0-1 loss v Verona earlier this season.
  • Unbeaten away v 8th-18th.

Conclusions

  • Lecce are unbeaten away v 8th-18th - we have to note that. They were very good v Inter Milan, keeping them out for 70 odd minutes. They may keep this to 0-0 for a while.
  • 100% wins for Verona v 16th and lower home and away. Enough to side with Verona despite that Lecce unbeaten run I mentioned.

14:00 - Sampdoria v Sassuolo - 2.3 Sampdoria

  • Asian handicap: Sampdoria have won by two or more goals in 7/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Sassuolo have conceded first in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams. Sampdoria have won 7/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Sampdoria - 16th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Conceded last 4 matches at home.
  • 4 matches played at home v 9th and lower, 3 wins and a 1-1.
  • 4-1 loss to Sassuolo earlier this season.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Sassuolo - 15th

  • 3 losses ended with a win v Sassuolo last match.
  • Only 1 away win v top 17 was a 0-1 v 10th.

Conclusions

  • Not a match which greatly appeals given the poorish form of these 2.

17:00 - Roma v Lazio - 2.48 Lazio

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Roma home matches and in 11/12 Lazio away matches. Lazio have conceded first in 8/12 away matches against top-six teams.
  • high profile Rome derby. On seasonal form, we'd be with Lazio here but as ever with high profile derbies, anything could happen.

19:45 - Napoli v Juventus - 2.12 Juventus

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Napoli home matches against top-six teams. Juventus have won 14/17 away matches against middle-third teams.

Napoli - 11th

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home losses.
  • Only 1 win since 27th October 2019.
  • No win in 6 at home.
  • Not beaten the top 9 at home.
  • And I halt here, remembering Napoli are under new management so I'll quickly revert to new manager's matches.
  • A win and 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Napoli only lost 1-0 to Lazio, who are arguably in better form than Juventus.

Juventus - 1st

  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • Only 1 loss for Juventus came v Lazio.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 matches.
  • Scored last 17 matches.

Conclusions

  • Napoli, even under new management, don't look capable of beating Juventus. The 1-0 loss v Lazio may suggest some resistance but I feel Juventus should not lose here. Napoli, season long, have not beaten the top 9 at home.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 - Vitesse Arnhem v Emmen - 1.43 Vitesse

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 11/13 Vit. Arnhem home matches and +3.5 goals in 10/18 Vit. Arnhem home matches. Emmen have lost 6/7 away matches against top-six teams.

Vitesse - 6th

  • A draw and 3 wins last 4 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets last 4 matches.
  • 3 goals scored in each of their last 3 matches.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2-1 loss v Emmen.
  • 12 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 8/10 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Emmen - 12th

  • 2 wins in 3 did come at home.
  • 8 losses and a draw last 9 away matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 9 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats away bar a draw v bottom in the league.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Vitesse are in the best recent form and keeping clean sheets. They could repay that 2-1 loss v Emmen last time.

13:30 - Willem II v PEC Zwolle - 1.74 Willem II

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 6/8 Willem II home matches against bottom-six teams and in 8/8 Zwolle away matches against top-six teams. Zwolle have had L/L double results in 7/8 away matches against top-six teams.

Willem II - 3rd

  • 5 wins and 2 draws last 7 matches.
  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches at home.
  • No defeat in 7 and in 6 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower. 1-3 win v PEC earlier.
  • Conceded 2 goals only once at home.
  • 9 of 11 goals scored at home came 1st half.

PEC Zwolle - 15th

  • Only 5 wins.
  • 6 losses and a win last 7 away.
  • Conceded all matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime all season.
  • No draw in 10 away.
  • All defeats v top 6.
  • All defeats away v top 10.
  • 7/8 goals scored away came 1st half.

13:30 - FC GRONINGEN v Ajax - 1.45 Ajax

  • 1st half outcome: Groningen have drawn the first half in 6/10 home matches against Big Two teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 10/14 Groningen home matches. Ajax have won 11/12 away matches against middle-third teams.

Groningen - 10th

  • Only 2 losses in 11 matches were 1-0.
  • 5 wins, a draw and a loss at home last 7 matches.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • 2-0 loss v Ajax last time these 2 met.
  • All wins at home came with a clean sheet.
  • 10 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Ajax - 1st

  • 2 recent losses saw Ajax fail to score.
  • Only 1 away win was a 1-0 v AZ.
  • No draw in 13 and in 5 away.
  • 100% wins  v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Ajax would only lose if they fail to score. Groningen only wins at home were to nil. 100% wins for Ajax v 7th and lower really should continue. 5 under 2.5 goals matches at home in a row for Groningen might suggest some defensive resistance. Ajax should eye 2 goals.

15:45 - PSV v FC Twente - 1.28 PSV

  • Match outcome: PSV have won 10/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Twente have lost 5/9 away matches. PSV have had W/W double results in 7/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.

PSV - 5th

  • Only 1 home loss v AZ.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 5 wins in 6 matches at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 7/8 matches.
  • All home wins v 7th and lower.
  • 1-1 last head to head.

Twente - 13th

  • No win in 6.
  • Failed to score last 4 matches.
  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 away matches.

Conclusions

  • In years gone by, this would be a top of the table clash but Twente have dipped in form. On seasonal form, we are with the market and PSV.
  • PSV have been scoring and conceding but still should not lose on form.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

12:30 - St Mirren v Aberdeen - 2.24 Aberdeen

  • Match outcome: St Mirren have lost 7/11 home matches against top half non-Big One teams while Aberdeen have won 13/19 away matches against bottom-six teams. St Mirren have conceded first in 10/16 home matches.
  • 10th v 4th.
  • 1-0 win v Aberdeen and 2-1 loss away last head to head but tend to lose to top side.
  • Aberdeen are patchier away from home.
  • They lost away v the top 2 and 6th and 10th.Wins away v 3rd, 5th, 9th and 11th.
  • I cannot readily trust this Aberdeen away form which is pattern-less. St Mirren did beat them 1-0 last time these 2 met so you may want to consider a lay of St Mirren with a 1-0 cover if St Mirren score first.

15:00 - Hearts v Rangers - 1.35 Rangers

  • 1st half outcome: Hearts have drawn the first half in 9/13 home matches against top half non-Big One teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 9/12 Hearts home matches. Rangers have won 8/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 12th v 2nd.
  • Hearts are bottom. Only 1 home win v 10th. 1-1 draw and 5-0 loss v Rangers this season. The 1-1 draw was prior to a Rangers Europa League match. The other top 3 sides scored 2/3 goals at home v Hearts.
  • All wins bar 2 draws away for Rangers. In 9 of 11 away matches, Rangers scored 2 goals at least.
  • It looks clear cut. If Rangers can continue their 2 goal habit, it should bring the win. St Mirren are layable if scoring first.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

Pacos Ferreira v Benfica - 1.38 Benfica

  • -1.5 goals: There have been -1.5 goals in 6/9 P. Ferreira home matches and -2.5 goals in 6/9 P. Ferreira home matches. Benfica have won 11/12 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Pacos Ferreira - 15th

  • 2 wins and 2 draws last 4 matches. 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 5-0 loss to Benfica earlier this season.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side at home.

Benfica - 1st

  • All wins bar a loss v Porto.
  • 14 consecutive wins and 8 away.
  • 2+ goals scored in all matches v 13th and lower.
  • 14 of 18 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Pacos have shown nothing to suggest beating Benfica today. We expect 2+ goals of Benfica who have had a few 2-1 results v 13th and lower
  • Note the strong 2nd half scoring for Benfica if quiet first half.