Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A good live chat continued after I left. Napoli came from 0-2 down to win 3-2. It seems Milan have goals in them but rather typically un-Italian, their defence is a shambles. Barcelona huffed and puffed to beat Vallecano. Research is basic as ever at this time of the year. We just want an idea of expected performance and then see if that is mirrored in-play.

PREMIER LEAGUE

13:30 - Watford v C Palace - 2.64 Watford

  • The market cannot split these 2 in a London(ish) derby.
  • 5 goals in 2 wins for Watford. I do think their win over Burnley was down more to Burnley's European commitments playing havoc. But still, 'who the feck is Richarlison?' Not missed at all.
  • 0-2 win v Fulham for Palace and inevitable defeat to Liverpool.
  • Neither side has had a 0-0 at halftime. 3 2-0 scorelines in the 4 matches played.

16:00 - Fulham v Burnley - 2.04 Fulham

  • The market is cold on Burnley, usually snarly and defensive and tough-as-hell to score against (erm, unless you're Olympiakos and Watford).
  • At least it's not a London derby for Fulham who are 2/2 losses v London opponents conceding 5 goals. Burnley 0-0 v Southampton and 1-3 loss to Watford. The latter most uncharacteristic for a team with one of the best defensive records last season. The best goals against record outside the top 5 last season.
  • Burnley cannot be trusted in their current form. A match well worth watching because they were 7th last season remember.

16:00 - Newcastle v Chelsea - 1.72 Chelsea

  • It's going to be a defensive display from Newcastle today but they will do well to keep a lid on a resurgent Chelsea.
  • 1-2 v Tottenham suggests similar today. They'll keep it tight but quality up front is likely to be the difference. 3 goals in 2 matches for Chelsea with 5 different goal scorers. 0-2 and 2-2 before halftime in Chelsea matches. You might want to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market if 0-0 after, say, 20 minutes.
  • Chelsea's attack looks good. Goals are coming from nearly half the team. Newcastle just be overwhelmed. It may be tight but Chelsea should out-score Newcastle today.

SPANISH LA LIGA

17:15 - Espanyol v Valencia - 2.5 Valencia

  • 2 1-1 draws in openers. Espanyol conceded an own goal. Both sides had a 0-1 at halftime.
  • 11th v 4th from last season.
  • Only 2 defeats at home for Espanyol v top 8. 4 1-0 wins. 0-2 loss to Valencia though at home.
  • Only 1 loss home and away for Valencia v 10th and lower last season.
  • It seems that Espanyol will be looking to a 1-0 win today. Valencia last season though scored in both matches and that may scupper that plan!

21:15 - Girona v Real Madrid - 1.39 Real Madrid

  • 0-0 in their opener for Girona. 2-0 Real Madrid in their opener.
  • First away match for Real.
  • Newly promoted Girona. Note Barcelona struggled v newly promoted yesterday, ditto Atl Madrid. Both big teams won 1-0 eventually.
  • We might see something akin to this today. A defensive stronghold from the home side who should be worn down. A possible 0-1 or 0-2 win.

21:15 - Sevilla v Villarreal - 1.89 Sevilla

  • 1-4 win Sevilla v newly promoted and 1-2 home loss Villareal v Sociedad.
  • 7th  v 5th from last season. Villareal 'best of the rest'.
  • In 5/6 matches v top 6 at home last season, Sevilla conceded 2 goals at least. They won only one match. 5 of the matches saw both teams scoring 2 goals at least.
  • 2-2 v Villareal at home last season.
  • Villareal drew 1-1 away v 2nd, beat 3rd and 4th 0-1 away last season so can be defensively strong.
  • The market favours Sevilla today. They have a few more competitive matches (European competition). One to watch. Let's hope for a goal fest like last year.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:00 - Spal v Parma - 2.32 Spal

  • 0-1 away win for Spal v Bologna. Parma 2-2 v Udinese. Parma led 2-0.
  • 17th v newly promoted. In-play stats here to see how Parma get on.

19:30 - Fiorentina v Chievo - 1.49 Fiorentina

  • Fiorentina's first match of the season. Chievo 2-3 loss to Juventus in their opener.
  • The market expects home dominance.
  • 8th v 14th from last season.
  • 6 losses for Fiorentina at home. 1-0 win v Chievo at home.
  • 100% defeats away v top 8 for Chievo.

19:30 - Genoa v Empoli - 2.1 Genoa


19:30 - Cagliari v Sassuolo - 2.52 Cagliari

  • 2.52 the favourite. The market cannot split these 2.
  • Cagliari lost 2-0 away v Empoli. Sassuolo beat Inter Milan 1-0 care of a penalty but it is a good sign that they are defensively sound?
  • 16th v 11th from last season.
  • Only 1 home win for Cagliari v top 12. All of Sassuolo's 6 wins away v 10th and lower were either 0-1 or 1-2. 0-0 and 0-1 win v Cagliari last season.
  • Expect that Sassuolo clean-sheetery to click in today? Back 0-0 pre-match?

19:30 - Frosinone v Bologna - 2.44 Bologna

  • Newly promoted Frosinone v Bologna suggests a watching brief until we can get a handle on this team new to Seria A.
  • 4-0 loss v Atalanta for Frosinone. Bologna lost 0-1 to Spal. That opening match for Frosinone tells us at least the top 6 will be a problem for them. Bologna were 15th last season.

19:30 - Udinese v Sampdoria - 2.4 Udinese

  • 2-2 for Udinese in their opener v Parma. Conceded 2 goals again! Arrrggh! Do you remember last season? 12 defeats and a 3-3 in 13 matches, conceding 2 goals at least. Note Udinese conceded 2 goals first and required a penalty to help get that 2-2. They conceded as well v a newly promoted side. I think the Udinese problems of last season have not been addressed.
  • First match of the season for Samp. Only 4 wins away for Samp. 4-0 loss away to Udinese.
  • I would lay Udinese if Udinese lead 1-0, 2-0 in particular!!

19:30 - Inter v Torino - 1.58 Inter

  • Both sides suffered a 1-0 defeat in their opener. Penalty v Inter and 89th minute Roma winner for Torino.
  • 4th v 9th from last season.
  • Only 3 home losses for Inter last season. 1-1 v Torino and 0-1 loss away.
  • Only 1 away win v top 11 for Torino. More struggles today? That's what the market thinks.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Mainz v Stuttgart - 2.82 Stuttgart

  • 14th v 7th from last season.
  • Unbeaten run at home last season v 5th-10th for Mainz but losses surround that.
  • 3-2 v Stuttgart.
  • Only 1 loss for Stuttgart since 3rd February 2018 saw an excellent end to the season. I suspect when I see changes like that, that Stuttgart may have inserted a new manager.
  • Stuttgart scored and conceded v 13th and lower away last season.
  • If Stuttgart can re-ignite that form of 3rd Feb onwards, I'd be with them today.

17:00 - Dortmund v RB Leipzig - 1.75 Dortmund

  • The first marquee clash in the Bundesliga.
  • 4th v 6th from last season. Worth checking out transfers for these big teams.
  • Witsel a good signing for Dortmund along with Diallo, Delaney and Akanji.
  • 4 losses at home for Dortmund last season saw both teams score. 2-3 loss v Leipzig.
  • v top 10 last season, Dortmund scored 2+ goals in all bar 1 match.
  • Leipzig conceded 2+ goals away v top 5 last season.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

12:15 - Motherwell v Rangers - 1.68 Rangers

  • Motherwell are yet to score in 2 defeats this season. 4 goals conceded. 1-1 Rangers v Aberdeen. 2-0 win v St Mirren.
  • Rangers are unbeaten under Steven Gerrard.3 clean sheets in 4 matches in all competitions. I will with Rangers to maintain their unbeaten run.
  • Rangers will be keen to exploit Celtic's unlikely loss to Hearts.

15:00 - Celtic v Hamilton - 1.14 Celtic

  • Similar odds to those v Livingston. Celtic won 3-1 there. They scored 2 first half goals.
  • 1-4 loss v Hearts and 0-1 win v Motherwell for Hamilton. The former scoreline is more in keeping with a 1.14 quote for Celtic.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 - Willem II v Heracles - 2.36 Willem II

  • 0-1 loss and 1-0 win for Willem II. Does this signal a defensive bent? 1-1 draw v Ajax for heracles and 4-2 win. Both teams have scored in their 2 matches.

13:30 - Heerenveen v Feyenoord - 1.79 Feyenoord

  • 2-3 win v Zwolle and 1-1 v Vitesse for Heerenveen.
  • Feyenoord had a poor season start domestically and in Europe. 2-0 loss away v De Graafschap and 3-0 win v Excelsior latest.
  • Feyenoord still concern me so watching brief with confirmation via the in-play stats.

13:30 - Utrecht v VVV - 1.59 Utrecht

  • 4-0 loss to PSV and 2-0 win v Zwolle for Utrecht this season.
  • VVV 0-1 win v Willem II and 0-1 loss to Ajax. Is this a sign that VVV will be more defensively led?
  • Only 1 loss at home for Utrecht last season was v 1st in the league. 1-0 home and away wins v VVV last season lines up with the feeling VVV are a defensively driven side.
  • 1.59 odds may be too short at the off. I will play the delay game and hope for a long-drawn out 0-0 where I'd take on that 0-0 2nd half and late on.

15:45 - AZ Alkmaar v Vitesse - 1.81 AZ

  • The most eye-catching side to date. The best inplay stats I have seen in the first 12 minutes of a match came in AZ's opener, an eventual 5-0 win. They followed that up with a 1-4 win. 5-1 win for Vitesse in their opener, 1-1 away v Heerenveen.
  • A feeling this is a slight step up for AZ from the 2 teams in their opening matches.
  • Both teams could score. In-play stats key for me to see how AZ are today. If the in-play stats are positive, take note. AZ have been very reliable to date when stats point to dominance and goals.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMEIRA LIGA

20:30 - Braga v Aves - 1.36 Aves

  • After Benfica and Sporting Lisbon drew 1-1 and Porto shockingly lost, Braga must record a win here to add 3 precious points to their tally and a possible tilt at the title.
  • 4-2 win and 3-3 draw for Braga. Braga were 0-3 up in the latter match. Clearly there is a goal threat but clearly a worrying defence.
  • 2-0 loss and 2-2 draw for Aves. Yet to meet the elite in Portugal, I do expect Braga to simply out-score them.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - Lille v Guingamp - 2.08 Lille

  • 3-1 win and a 0-0 Lille this season. 2 losses for Guingamp in which they scored. A hint at attacking problems for Guingamp? One of their 2 goals was a penalty.
  • A suggestion we side with Lille, with confirmation via the in-play stats.

16:00 - Bordeaux v Monaco - 2.72 Monaco

  • Managerial issues apparently at Bordeaux but still the market has not discounted them in a match they cannot call.
  • 2 losses so far for Bordeaux, conceding 2 goals in each. 1-3 win for Monaco and a 0-0 v Lille at home.
  • Does last year reveal the high odds for Monaco?
  • 6th v 2nd from last year.
  • 0-2 loss at home v Monaco last season for Bordeaux.
  • 6 wins last 7 matches last season.
  • Only 2 losses for Monaco since 2nd December 2017. 5/6 losses came away last season for Monaco.
  • I would still be with the away side but must acknowledge that there must be a reason for the high 2.72 quote.

20:00 - Marseille  v Rennes - 1.53 Marseille

  • Win/loss for both sides so far. Both defeats were 3-1.
  • Marseille's sole home match saw a 4-0 win.
  • Rennes' away defeat was 3-1.
  • 4th v 5th from last season. The odds look too short on Marseille with that in mind.
  • Only 2 home losses for Marseille last season....one was v Rennes. Marseille failed to score in only 1 home match last season.
  • Only 1 away loss for Rennes v top 10 last season. But Marseille did beat Rennes at Rennes 3-0 last season.
  • Nothing emphatic wanting me to back Marseille at 1.53. I will let the in-play stats guide me.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

19:45 - Besiktas v Antalyaspor - 1.26 Besiktas

  • Keystone Cop Karrius is Besiktas' new goalie. YIKES!
  • 2-1 and 1-3 wins for Besiktas this season.They did concede first last match and fought back 2nd half. Note that.
  • Antalyaspor have conceded 2 and 3 goals this season in loss and draw (3-3).
  • Neither side has had a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Faith in Besiktas despite 'whoops I dropped it again' Karrius in goal.

19:45 - Konyaspor v Bursapor - 1.95 Konyaspor

  • 3-2 and 3-3 this season for Konyaspor. They have goals (glass half full); they are conceding 2 goals a game (glass half empty). They are not losing (glass half full).
  • 2-1 loss to Fenerbahce and 0-0 for Bursapor this season.
  • 2 of the bottom 6 last season. 0-3 loss for Konyaspor v Bursapor at home last season. Only 3 away wins for Bursapor last season.
  • On this season's form, Konyaspor may play the Keegan-esque football. We'll score one more than you?