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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, June 25, 2017

The Norwegian Eliteserien has a few matches which are tough to call. The Confederations Cup looks straightforward. It's finals. I will try to tweet throughout the day @drtclub.

16:00 - Germany v Cameroon - 1.39 Germany

  • This German second string is more vulnerable defensively than a First Team, and more profligate in front of goal.
  • 2-3 win v Australia and 1-1 draw with Chile so far for Ze Germans.
  • Cameroon lost 0-2 to Chile, with goals coming 81st and 90th minutes. Their 1-1 draw with Australia relays to us their level.
  • This should be a German win. As ever in these one off matches, it is difficult to get any more angles in. Will the Germans continue to concede? Let's hope they concede first.

16:00 - Chile v Australia - 1.35 Chile

  • If the big guns are out for Chile, this should be a routine win. Sanchez was on the bench in their first match.
  • The excellent Vidal will pull the strings and likely be a goal scorer if the match is tight.
  • Results for Chile have been rather obvious so far. 0-2 win v Cameroon and 1-1 v Germany. I would look to a repeat of the 2-0 today.
  • Australia have scored in both of their matches so have a threat upfront, if they can get Cahill out of the Retirement Home.
  • 3 goals so far for the Aussies who have not won. They may score today. They have a seasoned pro up front . Chile I would expect 2 goals from at least.
  • All bar 1 of Australia's conceded goals have come 44th - 48th minute. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market 40th minute if still 0-0.

17:00 - Sarpsborg v Brann - 2.28 Sarpsborg

  • 2-1 Brann in the last head to head.
  • This is 3rd v 1st in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Sarpsborg

  • Only 3 defeats, one came last match.
  • 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • Only home loss was v Rosenborg.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • Not lost to nil at home.
  • No home 0-0.

Brann

  • Only 2 defeats, similarly lost to Rosenborg.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • All 7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • As befits a 1st v 3rd clash, this is tough to call. Both have 2-1 losses to yardsticks Rosenborg.
  • will these 2 cancel each other out? Statistically we should see a goal from each side.
  • Note Brann are 2nd half scorers currently away from home. Sarpsborg to score first, then Brann?

17:00 - Stabaek v Kristiansund - 1.72 Stabaek

  • These 2 last met in 2013.
  • This is 9th v 14th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Stabaek

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • Strange home form. Beat 3rd, 5th, 7th but lost v 8th and 10th.

Kristiansund

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No win in 6 away.
  • No away win.
  • No 0-0.
  • Opponents tend to score first.

Conclusions

  • I have to side with the home team. Both teams may score but Stabaek not lose.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Stabaek are highly likely to score first.

17:00 - Tromso v Sandefjord - 1.95 Tromso

  • No recent relevant head to heads.
  • This is 15th v 11th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Tromso

  • Only 1 win in 10 was perversely against Rosenborg.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 3 consecutive defeats conceding 4-4-3 goals.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • 8 of 10 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Sandefjord

  • 4 losses in 5 away matches.
  • No draw in 7 away matches.
  • Beat 16th away but lost away v 7th, 10th, 12th and 13th.
  • No 0-0 away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0. Not a match I am taken with otherwise. Arguments for either side. Tromso unbeaten v 12th and lower (play 11th). Sandefjord unbeaten v 14th and lower.

17:00 - Aalesunds v Odds BK - 2.52 Aalesunds

  • 1-0 Aalesunds last head to head.
  • This is 7th v 5th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Aalesunds

  • Only 2 losses in 11 matches. 2 0-1 losses.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Losses at home v 3rd, 4th and 8th. Not scored more than 1 goal in a match home and away v top 9.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came at home.

Odds

  • 3 consecutive 0-0's.
  • 6 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • 7 of 8 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A messy match. 0-0 is in play of course. Aalesunds are not scoring that 2nd goal v top teams.
  • Not for me. A lack of congruity.

17:00 - Rosenborg v Sogndal - 1.27 Rosenborg

  • 3-1 Rosenborg the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 2nd (on goal difference) v 12th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Rosenborg

  • Only 2 losses and lost last match.
  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 home matches.
  • Strong starters at home - 4 goals first 15 mins.
  • Scored first in 6/7 at home.
  • No opponent has led at halftime at home.

Sogndal

  • Only 1 loss in 7 was a 2-3 v current 1st in the league.
  • Sogndal led Brann 2-0!
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Have lost away v 3rd and 4th, conceding 3 goals in each case.
  • Only 1 away win.

Conclusions

  • Expectation is for Sogndal to concede at least 3 goals today. Have no fear if Sogndal score first. they led Brann 2-0 before losing 2-3.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Viking v Haugesund - 2.42 Viking

  • 4-1 Haugesund in the last head to head.
  • This is 16th v 8th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Viking

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No draw in 6 at home.
  • No 0-0.

Haugesund

  • 2 consecutive 1-0 wins.
  • No draw in 7 away.
  • Have actually lost away v 11th, 13th and 14th.
  • No 0-0 away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0 and lay any late draw.
  • Apart from that it is yet another tough Norwegian match.

TENNIS

I think it is Finals day today and, like Football Finals, these tend to be 'best on the day' matches.

AEGON

Cilic v Lopez - 1.47 Cilic

  • 8th v 40th.
  • Cilic has won the last 4 head to heads - we have seen 2 recent 3 setters on grass when these 2 met.
  • It's been a battle for Lopez, either tie breakers or 3 setters to get here.
  • The only struggle for Cilic was v solid Muller, who won a grass tournament prior to this one.
  • It does have a feel of a 3 setter today. Value? Cilic to win first set. He is already very short odds and will be even shorter if winning first set - lay him!

GERRY WEBER

Roger Federer v Alexander Zverev - 1.46 Roger

  • 4th v 21st.
  • Alexander won the semi final in Halle between these 2 last year in 3 sets.
  • Alexander has had to fight a couple of 3 setters to get here. This instantly suggests we lay Alex if he wins the first set.
  • Fed looks in really good nick so I would want Alex to win the first set ideally.
  • We should see a 3 setter.

WTA Birmingham

Petra Kvitova v Ashleigh Barty - 1.4 Petra

  • 15th v 85th.
  • Straight sets so far for Petra albeit the last match saw her opponent retire.
  • Well done Ashleigh, beating Garbine Muguruza in 3 sets. Barty has had a less than smooth progression. 7-5 7-6 in the first match, 3 setter 2nd match, retirement 3rd match, 3 setter 4th match.
  • I must be with Petra today. She looks back to her best on grass at least. Very poor on clay. This is Petra's come back season - clay and grass.
  • I hope Barty wins the first set as she is a 3 setter this tournament and should not win 2-0.
Eastbourne is undertaking its qualifiers at the moment. I have not really gone into qualifiers. I note Su-Wei Hsieh plays today and regular tennis followers know that she shocked Johanna Konta in the French Open and is a lady to have on your side. I do not expect Su to lose 2-0 sets today.