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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, September 24, 2017

The Spanish Primera Liga does not make much appeal to me today.

ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP

16:00 - Brighton v Newcastle United - 2.82 Brighton

  • A match making very little appeal as 2 newly promoted sides clash.
  • 0-0-0-3-1 scored by Brighton this season. The 3 was scored at home v West Brom.
  • Only 1 clean sheet for Brighton was in a 0-0 away at Watford.
  • After losing to Tottenham and Huddersfield, Newcastle have won their next 3 matches v West Ham, Swansea and Stoke.
  • The win v Swansea came away and with a 76th minute goal.
  • A match for inplay stats or to leave alone. Were I to chose, Newcastle have slightly the better form. If they follow the template of the Swansea match we could see a 0-0 into the 2nd half.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - St Etienne v Rennes - 2.16 St Etienne

  • 1-1, 0-1 St E, 2-0 Rennes, 1-1 in the last 4 head to heads.
  • St Etienne's only defeat was v PSG this season. They have built early success on defence. 4 clean sheets saw 4 wins, 3 were 1-0.
  • St Etienne have scored 3 home goals in the first 15 minutes of matches. Their reputation last year was for scoring 2nd half goals.
  • In their first 5 matches, Rennes scored and conceded, winning only 1 match.
  • They have conceded in every match.
  • 2 and 3 goals scored by Rennes in their last 2 matches.
  • I do not expect a 0-0 here. With St Etienne throughout the season it would be good to lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Rennes are likely to concede so note that.
  • Those are my only 2 angles here. I note Rennes scoring 5 goals in 2 away matches so I am not as keen as I would have normally been with St Etienne.

16:00 - Strasbourg v Nantes - 2.72 Strasbourg

  • Not a match that greatly appeals based on the market.
  • Only 1 win for newly promoted Strasbourg suggests struggles. They lost without scoring in the last 3 matches.
  • Nantes have 4 consecutive clean sheets in 3 wins and a 0-0.3 consecutive 1-0 wins.
  • In all of Nantes matches to date we have yet to see a goal in the first half. So note that if 0-0 at halftime. We should see at least one 2nd half goal if Nantes can continue their scoring.

20:00 - Marseille v Toulouse - 1.62 Marseille

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's in Ligue 1 head to heads. I like to see 0-0 sequences end and will enter this match in this expectation.
  • 2 whopping 6-1 and 1-3 beatings for Marseille left me scratching my head. These ended with a 0-2 win v Amiens which was an expected win.
  • 1-1 and 1-3 Marseille in the last 2 home matches. A slight concern regarding a lack of a 2nd goal.
  • Toulouse are yet to win away from home with a draw and 2 defeats.
  • 2-1-2-3-0-0 goals scored by Toulouse recently Jekyll and Hyde.
  • Another messy match for me. Toulouse have goals in them but then they fail to score in 2. Marseille concede 9 goals in 2 matches out of the blue.
  • A match I will leave alone.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Hannover v FC Koln (Europa League) - 2.02 Hannover

  • No head to head since March 2016.
  • Koln have lost all of their matches to date.
  • They failed to score in 4 of their 5 matches.
  • Hannover are unbeaten.2 consecutive home wins to nil. Hannover have scored in every match.
  • On form, we must be with Hannover here today. Do note that FC Koln will win at some point.
  • Hannover have yet to see a goal in the first half. So a great match to note if 0-0 at halftime. We should expect goals 2nd half.

17:00 - Leverkusen v Hamburg - 1.42 Leverkusen

  • Leverkusen have won the last 3 home head to heads.
  • 3-2-3-0-2 goals conceded by Leverkusen. They have scored 2 and 4 goals at home though.
  • Bar the 4-0 home win, both teams scored in the other Leverkusen matches.
  • Hamburg are yet to have a draw with 2 lwins and now 3 consecutive losses (failing to score).
  • The market expects Hamburg struggles. I suppose the 2 and 4 goals scored by Leverkusen at home should see them outscore Hamburg today (remember this is a Hamburg who have not scored in 3).
  • Leverkusen are yet to see a 0-0 at halftime.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Sampdoria v AC Milan (Europa League) - 2.06 AC Milan

  • 3 consecutive 0-1 scorelines in head to head, 2 for AC Milan.
  • 2 wins and 2 draws for Sampdoria this season. They scored 2 goals in 3 matches but their last match was a 0-0.
  • 4 wins and a loss for AC Milan.
  • Milan have scored in every match this season.
  • 2 in form sides makes this a difficult match to pre-empt. Neither side has yet to meet an elite in Seria A (Roma, Juventus, Inter Milan, Napoli) so it is hard to quantify their good form to date.
  • A match for the in-play stats.

14:00 - Cagliari v Chievo - 2.28 Cagliari

  • 1-0 Chievo and 4-0 Cagliari in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Not a Seria A match which immediately grabs the attention. Will the form unravel an angle or two?
  • Chievo scored and conceded in 4 of 5 matches. They are on a 2 match 1-1 sequence.
  • 1-0 and 0-1 at home for Cagliari.
  • Chievo are yet to keep a clean sheet.
  • Not a match with too many angles.

14:00 - Crotone v Benevento - 1.97 Crotone

  • Not a win between these 2 this season. Crotone edge it with a draw and 4 defeats.
  • Both sides have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
  • Crotone did draw 0-0 with another newly promoted side in Verona.
  • The market expects Crotone not to lose today but can we trust them? Dire stuff early season.
  • Back 0-0 pre match if you think this poor goals record for both sides will continue.

14:00 - Inter v Genoa - 1.32 Inter

  • The home team has won each of the last 4 head to heads (twice each).
  • No Champions League distractions for a hot to trot Inter Milan side.
  • Inter Milan look reliable. Their last match saw them equalise after conceding first.
  • Inter Milan are reliable second half scorers too. They have scored 7 goals in the second half in their last 4 matches.
  • Only in their last match did Inter fail to score that 2nd goal.
  • 2 draws and a loss for Genoa.
  • Only 1 clean sheet for Genoa came first match of the season.
  • In this match I would not worry if 0-0 at halftime. I would expect a second half goal, however late it may be in the match.
  • I would expect Inter to win just based on their apparent solidity this season, although they were poor last match and scored only via a penalty.
  • I cannot see any Inter absentees, particularly up front.

14:00 - Verona v Lazio (Europa League) - 1.64 Lazio

  • Verona have failed to score now in 4 matches. Seria A is proving too much for them. Seasoned Lazio should pile on the misery.
  • Lazio's only loss has come v a strong Napoli side.
  • Expect 2 or 3 goals from Lazio as long as they do not find an upcoming Europa League match distracting.
  • 0-0 I think is the best that Verona can hope for.

17:00 - Sassuolo v Bologna - 2.14 Sassuolo

  • Last 3 head to heads tight and tended to favour Bologna who beat Sassuolo in their last 2 visits.
  • Only 1 win for Sassuolo was a 0-1 away to Cagliari.
  • 1-1-0-1-1 scored by Bologna this season. 1-1 v Inter Milan impressed as Inter are strong this season. 0-1 and 2-1 loss for Bologna away.
  • Another match with little to grab my attention. If you think Bologna will continue to struggle to score 2 goals this season then lay them if they score first (note Bologna did score 2 in 2 consecutive away wins v Sassuolo).
  • Other than that it is a match to leave alone.

19:45 - Fiorentina v Atalanta - 2.3 Fiorentina

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's in head to heads and immediately that tells us to lay the late 0-0 as these sequences rarely continue.
  • Only 1 clean sheet for Fiorentina.
  • 1-2 and 2-1 at home for Fiorentina.
  • They lost to Inter Milan, Sampdoria and Juventus. Atalanta remember were a top 4 side last year.
  • Atalanta have lost only to marquee teams Napoli and Roma. They have won their last 2 and drawn 1.
  • Atalanta have conceded in all matches to date so may need to score 2 goals in order to win.
  • I would take a chance here and back 2-1 and 1-2 here. If the scoreline is 1-1 or 2-0/0-2 at any stage, there is a trading option.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:30 - Utrecht v PSV - 2.06 PSV

  • PSV have won the last 3 head to heads scoring at least 2 goals.
  • Neither team has had a draw this season. If you think this will continue, lay the late draw.
  • Utrecht's 3 wins were to nil, 2 of those wins were 2-0 and at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime yet for Utrecht.
  • PSV lost their last away match v Heerenveen but have won all others.
  • PSV are yet to have a 0-0 at halftime.
  • So, albeit based on 5 games, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market and hope this pattern continues for both sides.
  • Both sides have failed to score just the once.
  • The PSV loss to Heerenveen was a little curve ball for me. Ordinarily they tend to beat Utrecht. Faith in the head to heads and PSV not losing today?

13:30 - Ajax v Vitesse - 1.3 Ajax

  • 3 consecutive 1-0 Ajax wins is not what is expected from a 1.3 odds quote.
  • Ajax are surprisingly not in European competition.
  • 2 consecutive home wins for Ajax saw them scoring 3 goals.
  • They threw in a poor 1-1 performance away to ADO Den Haag.
  • Vitesse are having a reasonable season.3 wins in their first 4 matches saw Vitesse score 3 goals at least.
  • Vitesse have scored 3 goals in each of their last 2 away matches.
  • I personally don't think Ajax are a worthy favourite at 1.3 odds. If we lay them at the off, then we need Vitesse to score first in order to see a trading angle.
  • Better, for me personally, to lay Ajax if Ajax score first and hope that, at the very least, Ajax will win 1-0 and have trouble scoring that 2nd goal. A prolonged 1-0 like we see in the head to heads always gives Vitesse a chance for a goal.

13:30 - Groningen v Twente - 2.1 Groningen

  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 8 head to heads.
  • 3-4 Twente and 3-5 Groningen in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Both teams have scored in Groningen's matches this season and that is certainly a pattern in head to heads.
  • 3-3, 2-1 and 1-1 at home for Groningen sees them unbeaten and you wouldn't bet against them given that Twente are a poorer version of their old selves.
  • 4 defeats for Twente suddenly ended with a 4-0 thrashing of Utrecht. That was really out of the blue.
  • Twente are yet to see a 0-0 at halftime. If you want, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Both teams to continue to score? If so I would chance again a lay of Twente if Twente lead. It did not pay off last match so risks are attached (maybe a change in personnel or manager?).

13:30 - VVV v Zwolle - 2.36 VVV

  • 3 consecutive 2-1 scorelines in head to heads, 2 wins for Zwolle.
  • Both sides have just had a single loss v Ajax this season.
  • Only 2 home matches for VVV saw a win v Sparta and that loss to Ajax.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws at the moment for VVV.
  • 3 Zwolle wins came at home.
  • Zwolle have not had a 0-0 at halftime.
  • As tight as the market suggests. I would lay any late 1-1 draw based on VVV only. That sequence should end.

15:45 - AZ Alkmaar v Excelsior - 1.36 AZ

  • 3-3 and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • A 3-2 loss to PSV was followed by 4 wins for AZ so a great start to the season.
  • AZ have scored 2 goals in all 5 matches.
  • Excelsior have lost their 3 home matches and 1-2 and 2-2 in their last 2 away matches.
  • Will AZ continue to score 2 goals this season. If so then it is a ready angle if Excelsior score first.
  • I would speculatively back 2-2 here given Excelsior have scored 2 goals in each of their 2 away matches.
  • I would expect AZ Alkmaar not to lose today. Excelsior have not had a 0-0 at halftime.If you think that will continue lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA

The matches today in the Spanish Primera Liga make little appeal to me on paper.

11:00 - Espanyol v Deportivo - 1.98 Espanyol

  • 1-1 and 1-2 Espanyol in the last 2 head to heads.
  • 1-0-0-2-0 goals scored by Espanyol this season. When they scored 2 goals they won.
  • Deportivo have conceded 3-2-4-2-0 goals this season. 0 is very rare!
  • Depor have conceded 2 goals in their 2 away matches.
  • I suppose Espanyol are favourites because Depor are do poor defensively but remember Espanyol have not scored in 3 of their 4 matches.
  • Not a match which appeals.

15:15 - Getafe v Villarreal - 2.76 Villareal

  • 2.76 odds tells you that the market cannot split the teams.
  • No head to heads since April 2016.
  • 0-0-2-1-1 scored by Getafe this season. They lost 0-1 to Sevilla and 1-2 to Barcelona at home so these newcomers are not getting thrashed at home against established top flight teams.
  • After 2 consecutive away defeats, Villareal have put together 2 wins v Betis and Alaves and a 0-0 draw.
  • No angles for me. As I said in the intro to the Primera Liga it is an unappealing coupon today.

17:30 - Eibar v Celta Vigo - 2.3 Eibar

  • 2 consecutive Eibar wins in the last 2 head to heads.
  • No draw for Eibar this season.3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Eibar's 2 wins were 1-0.
  • Celta Vigo have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.Their only win was a 1-0 win at home v Alaves.
  • Celta vigo have not had a 0-0 at halftime.
  • 2 consecutive 2-1 losses away for Celta Vigo.
  • Again 2 teams who do not appeal. Neither side have had a 0-0. Lay the late 0-0?

17:30 - Las Palmas v Leganes - 2.16 Las Palmas

  • 1-1 and 3-0 Leganes in the last 2 head to heads.
  • No draw for Las Palmas in their 5 matches.
  • Leganes won 2 matches 1-0, lost their next 2 and drew 0-0 last match.
  • Both sides have had  31-0/0-1 scorelines so far this season.
  • Back 0-0 pre match and hope that these 2 struggle to score. I tend to trade out at halftime if 0-0 at halftime.

19:45 - Sociedad v Valencia - 2.34 Sociedad

  • 2 consecutive 3-2 Sociedad wins in head to heads.
  • 3-3-4-1-0 goals scored by Sociedad. They have suddenly had trouble scoring. 1-3 loss to real Madrid and 3-0 loss to Levante.
  • No 0-0 at halftime for Sociedad.
  • All over 2.5 goals for Sociedad.
  • Valencia remain unbeaten in their 5 matches. 2-2 and 1-1 away so far.
  • 2 wins came at home.
  • I was looking forward to another goal fest here but what is with Sociedad's 1-0 goals in their last 2 matches when they scored 10 in the previous 3?
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the 5 matches to date.
  • I will take a chance and back 2-2 pre match as a trading angle. You can trade out at 1-1, 2-1/1-2 if lucky enough to see this scoreline early in the match.
  • I pick 2-2 based on the head to heads, Valencia's 2 away score draws and Sociedad's early goalscoring.

AUSTRIA BUNDESLIGA

15:30 - Red Bull Salzburg v Austria Wien - 1.5 Red Bull

  • Red Bull have scored 3 goals at least in the last 4 head to heads.

Red Bull

  • Failed to score in only 1 match and lost it.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in each of the last 3 home matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not conceded first half at home.
  • 9 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Austria Vienna

  • Lost their opening 2 matches of the season but since then, 4 wins and 2 2-2 draws.
  • 2-2-3-3-2-5 goals scored in recent matches is very consistent.
  • Like red bull, they failed to score in only one match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Red Bull tend to enjoy meeting Austria Vienna but this Austria Vienna look a bit handy this season.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Note the goal scoring 2nd half though so if that 0-0 halftime score does not end, it should end 2nd half.
  • This is yet another match where 2-2 can be backed pre match in the hope for goals. Red Bull have scored 2 at least in all homes and Austria Vienna scored 2+ in each of their last 7 matches.

BELGIAN PRO LEAGUE

12:30 - Gent v Zulte-Waregem - 1.77 Gent

  • 2 consecutive Gent wins in head to heads. 7 goals scored by Gent in the last 2 head to heads.

Gent

  • May have the best of head to heads but only 1 win this season.
  • 0-1, 0-0, 1-1 in their 3 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.

Zulte

  • Scored in every match.
  • 5-2-1-4-2-2-2 goals scored this season. Zulte may have a chance this head to head?
  • 5-4-2 goals scored in away matches.
  • Only losses v the current top 2.

Conclusions

  • Admittedly, Gent love meeting Zulte. This time though I will lay Gent if Gent score first. Zulte look sharper in front of goal early on this season.

17:00 - Charleroi v Club Brugge - 2.4 Brugge

19:00 - Standard v Lokeren - 1.57 Standard