Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

13:30 live chat webinar via Zoom so I'll set that up now. It will be simultaneously broadcast via DRT Facebook live. The Zoom link is:
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/86132662445?pwd=ZXhBU3ZtZ1NRS0xKZlFNNkxTanZNZz09
The Meeting ID is:
Meeting ID: 861 3266 2445
Passcode : 243585
See you at 13:30 on Zoom and DRT Facebook.
I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook and be on Telegram throughout.

SPANISH LA LIGA

13:00 - Osasuna v Granada - 2.45 Osasuna

  • Leave this to the in-play stats.

15:15 - Elche v Barcelona - 1.40 Barcelona

Elche - 18th

  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches and in 9 of their last 12 matches.
  • 4 score draws and 2 losses last 6 matches at home.
  • No win in 12 and in 6 at home.
  • Conceded last 7 and last 7 at home.
  • Only played one of top 5 at home, a 1-1 draw.
  • Not beaten a top 13 side.

Barcelona - 3rd

  • 6 wins and 2 draws last 8 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 and last 5 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Elche like scoring and conceding but they have not beaten a top 13 side.
  • Barcelona are vastly improved now and will expect to win. They have failed to score in only 2 matches.

17:30 - Celta Vigo v Eibar - 2.05 Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo - 11th

  • 5 wins and a draw has ended now in 3 consecutive defeats, conceding 2+ goals.
  • 4 consecutive home wins ended with loss latest v Villareal.
  • No draw in 9 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All wins at home v 7th and lower.
  • 0-0 last head to head.

Eibar - 15th

  • Only 1 win in 6 away matches.
  • Scored in their last 6 and last 9 away.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • Have had unbeaten results away v Barcelona, Sevilla, Sociedad and Betis, all above Celta Vigo in the league.

Conclusions

  • Eibar do turn some good results away so Celta will need to score their usual 2 goals in 100% wins v 7th and lower at home to get another win today. Their recent poor form has come v better positioned teams in the league than Eibar.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

20:00 - Atletico Madrid v Valencia - 1.40 Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid - 1st

  • Only 1 loss came v Real Madrid.
  • 6 consecutive wins, 7 at home.
  • No defeat in 9 at home.

Valencia - 14th

  • Only 3 losses in 12 matches, one was a 0-1 loss v Atletico Madrid.
  • Not played the top 3 away.
  • 8/11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I must favour Atletico Madrid today in what might be a tight affair.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Schalke v Bayern Munich - 1.22 Bayern

  • Bottom v top so no huge research here.
  • 8-0 Bayern last time these 2 met on the opening day of the season.
  • Only 1 win for Schalke came v the Hoff recently in a 4-0.
  • That was their only clean sheet.
  • 3+ goals conceded by Schalke v the top 4 without scoring.
  • 5 wins in 6 for Bayern. Things have been tight away of late. 1-1, 1-2, 3-2, 0-1. So they do struggle more, albeit tending to get the win. Last away result was poor though. A penalty and a late missed penalty gave them a labouring 0-1 win v a poor Augsburg.
  • Bayern have scored in their last 17 matches.
  • They have a 100% win record v 14th and lower.

17:00 - Hoffenheim v Koln - 1.91 Hoffenheim

Hoffenheim - 11th

  • An impressive 0-3 away win v Hertha Berlin makes it 2 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 0-0 last home match.
  • No win in 3 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, only 1 at fulltime.
  • v 10th and lower at home, 3-3 v 10th, 3-1 v 12th and 0-0 v 15th.
  • 2-3 win away v Koln earlier this season.
  • 8/12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

FC Koln - 16th

  • Win against Schalke latest continues a good away run. Draw, Draw, Win, Win, Draw, Loss, Win away.
  • Only 1 win home and away though v the top 15. 2 away wins came v the bottom 2.

Conclusions

  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0 for the Hoff tends to come in, albeit a 0-0 last home match. Koln have been putting together a solid away run but notably, 2 of their 3 away wins came v the bottom 2 and that might see them hoping for a draw best case against a Hoff with a small glimmer of hope in 2 consecutive home clean sheets.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Juventus v Bologna - 1.40 Juventus

Juventus - 5th

  • Only 2 losses, one came latest v Inter Milan.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches at home.
  • Failed to score in the 2 defeats.
  • Conceded last 5 at home.
  • Only home loss saw Juventus down to 10 men.
  • 8 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.
  • 6/8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Bologna - 12th

  • 5 draws, a loss and a win recently.
  • Failed to score last 2 away.
  • Opponents have scored first in 8/9 Bologna way matches.
  • No win v the top 8.
  • Lost to 1st, 2nd and 7th away.
  • 6/7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Bologna have no win v the top 8 and play 5th today, a Juventus side with only 2 losses, one coming when they were red carded.
  • With 4 wins in 5 at home, Juventus will expect the win.

14:00 - Genoa v Cagliari - 2.25 Genoa

Genoa - 16th,

  • Only 3 wins, but now 2 consecutive clean sheets including keeping Atalanta to 0-0.
  • Draw, Draw, Win at home. Draws v Lazio and AC Milan - impressive.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 1-2. 1-2, 4-1 v teams below them in the league.
  • 9/13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Cagliari - 17th

  • 5 consecutive defeats.
  • No win in 11 and in 6 away.
  • Conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • 1-1 at home v 15th, 2-3 win away v 18th, 0-0 away v 19th, 4-2 win at home v 20th.

Conclusions

  • Genoa are keeping clean sheets, albeit only 2 consecutive recently and that is important as they have scored and conceded v teams below them in the league, losing 2 of the matches 1-2 and winning the other 4-1. Cagliari are unbeaten so far v the teams they have played 15th and lower.

14:00 - Verona v Napoli - 1.70 Napoli

Verona - 9th

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Loss, Draw, Loss, Loss, Win at home recently.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 at home.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Loss at home v 2nd, 4th, 8th and 10th.
  • 7/9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Napoli - 3rd

  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 matches.
  • 1-4 win and 1-2 win last 2 away matches.
  • No 0-0 this season.
  • 2 away defeats came v 2nd and 7th.
  • 11/15 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 9 goals scored last 1/2 hour of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Napoli have only 2 away losses coming v top 7 sides. Verona did beat 4th at home but that was one win amongst 3 losses v the top 10 at home.

17:00 - Lazio v Sassuolo - 1.67 Lazio

Lazio - 7th

  • A draw and 3 consecutive wins.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • 13 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored in their last 14 and last 9 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 at home.
  • v the top 11, only 2 wins at home v 3rd and 4th.
  • 10/14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Sassuolo - 8th

  • Scored and conceded last 7 matches and last 4 away.
  • 2 away defeats came v 5th and 6th and saw both teams score.
  • 13/18 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Lazio have found some form but their record v the top 11 is not the best, 2 wins v 3rd and 4th.
  • Sassuolo have lost away to 5th and 6th and play 7th today.
  • Both teams could score today. And on ultra recent form, Lazio are favoured.

19:45 - Parma v Sampdoria - 2.37 Sampdoria

Parma - 19th

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home defeats.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 6 at home.
  • v 9th-17th at home, 1-0, 0-0, 2-2, 0-0, 0-0.

Sampdoria - 10th

  • 3 losses in 4 matches away.
  • 3 consecutive 2-1 scorelines, 2 wins came at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 14 and last 9 away matches.
  • Not played the bottom 2 away.2-2 away v 18th and 3-1 win at home v 20th.
  • 12/15 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market cannot split these 2 sides. I am not sure we can salvage any positives here. Parma are failing to score, and Sampdoria have failed to score in their last 3 matches.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 - Fortuna Sittard v Ajax - 1.15 Ajax

  • All 5 Sittard wins this season have come within the last 7 matches. That is the form to judge them by. They did have a 1-1 v Utrecht and a score is likely all they can hope to salvage out of this encounter.
  • Sittard's only clean sheet came last match.
  • They play an Ajax with only 2 defeats, and with 2 score draws and 2 wins last 4 matches.
  • 5 wins and a draw away for Ajax.
  • Sittard, for all their recent solidity have tended to lose when meeting the top 7 and the top 9 at home. 3 goals conceded tends to be the recurring theme which fits in with a 1-15 quote for Ajax today.
  • Angles? 3 goals conceded potentially for Sittard unless they can get momentum from their recent winning form.

13:30 - Twente v Venlo - 1.60 Twente

Twente - 7th

  • 3 wins in 9 matches came away from home.
  • 4 consecutive home defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 12 and last 8 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 1-2 win last head to head.
  • 6 wins this season v 11th and lower, 4 of those away from home.

VVV - 14th

  • 2 wins and a draw latest.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side.
  • 12/16 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Both teams could score in VVV matches but without VVV winning.
  • Twente do a lot of winning v 11th and lower, 4 of those away from home so a suggestion that they will cope better with home advantage.

13:30 - Utrecht v Sparta Rotterdam - 1.65 Utrecht

Utrecht - 10th

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Only 2 wins in 12 though suggesting loads of draws.
  • 4 score draws and a win at home recently.
  • They have kept only 2 clean sheets.
  • 3/4 defeats came v the top 3.
  • 5/6 score draws v 4th-11th home and away.
  • 8/12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Sparta - 9th

  • 4 wins in 5 away.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • No draw in 11 matches.
  • Wins away v 7th,11th 15th and 16th.
  • 67% of goals scored and conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Utrecht do tend to lose to the top 4 which gives them an advantage. But they are adept at score draws v 4th-11th so watch for that pattern today. But...Sparta have no draw in 11 matches, so will that negate yet another score draw for Utrecht? You may want to lay any late score draw on that basis? Sparta are winning away as well recently so will make this a tester for Utrecht.

15:45 - Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar - 2.30 Feyenoord

  • Yet another high profile 'derby' of sorts sees 2 form sides lock horns. These can tend to be tough to read matches so I will leave to the in-play stats.
  • top 5 sides.
  • Only 2 defeats plays only 1 defeat.
  • No defeat in 8 at home plays no defeat in 9 away.
  • AZ have scored in their last 17 matches.
  • Feyenoord are yet to meet the top 5 at home.
  • AZ have scored 3+ goals away v 3rd, 7th, 8th, 9th.
  • Angles? Could be anything but I do note AZ's consistent 3+ goals v top 10 sides away!