It is the Dutch Eredivisie this Christmas eve. Have a good Christmas. Boxing Day sees a busy schedule so I'd best get cracking on the research while my nephews and nieces are absent!

11:30 - Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam - 1.77 Groningen

• 3 score draws ended with a 2-1 Sparta win in head to heads.

Groningen (13th)

• Only 4 wins.
• Conceded 2 goals at least in 7 of their last 8 matches.
• Only 2 clean sheets.
• Failed to score in only 3 matches.
• Only 2 home losses v 5th and 14th.
• A sudden dip in goal scoring v 12th and lower at home - 1-0-1 scored can always lead to danger!
• Lost 2-1 to Sparta earlier this season at Sparta.
• 17 of 26 goals scored this season at home came 2nd half.

Sparta (18th)

• Only 2 wins.
• 4 consecutive defeats.
• Only 2 clean sheets.
• No away win.
• Only 1 lead at halftime away.
• Have 2-2 draws v 14th and 15th.
• 13 of 17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• Historically tight these matches, I could foresee both teams scoring and would actually chance a 2-2 given the head to heads and Sparta's 2 2-2's v the 2 teams positioned below Groningen.
• 2-2 is a scoreline that can be traded as early as 1-1 (as long as said scoreline occurs early in the match).
• You might want to delay your entry given the strong 2nd half biases for these 2. If 0-0 at halftime, say, I would consider backing over 2.5 goals at enhanced odds.

13:30 - VVV v Heracles - 2.08 VVV

• 3-0 Heracles earlier this season.

VVV (12th)

• Only 4 wins.
• No win in 8 at home.
• Only 4 clean sheets.
• Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 at home.
• All home defeats have come v the top 7. Easier assignment today?
• 18 of 25 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
• 13 of  16 home goals conceded came 2nd half.

Heracles (10th)

• No away win.
• Only 1 clean sheet.
• Failed to score in only 2 matches.
• Outside the top 3, Heracles have at least scored away albeit without winning.

Conclusions

• 2 of the lesser lights. You want me to back a favourite at home who has no win in 8 at home, albeit v an away team with no win away.
• Further, VVV have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 at home.
• There is some hope for a competitive match. All VVV home wins came v the top 10 and sights are slightly lowered.
• I think both teams could score today given Heracles away matches outside the top 3 albeit with (it seems) Heracles unlikely to win.
• I would take a chance and lay Heracles if Heracles scored first, albeit we are putting faith in a VVV, as I say, who have failed to score in 45/ at home.

13:30 - Ajax v Willem II - 1.13 Ajax

• 5-3-3 scored by Ajax in the last 3 head to heads, the last 2 matches were away. This should present a pre-Christmas cracker for Ajax.

Ajax (2nd)

• Scored in every match.
• Scored 2+ goals in 10 of their last 11 matches.
• Scored 3+ goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
• Only 2 under 2.5 goals matches all season.
• Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
• Scored 3+ goals in all home wins v 11th and lower.
• Conceded in 5/6 home matches v 6th and lower.
• 17 of 23 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Willem II (14th)

• Only 4 wins.
• Scored and conceded in 12 of the last 14 matches.
• Only 1 clean sheet.
• Failed to score in only 3 matches.
• Scored and conceded in their last 8 matches.
• All defeats v top 7 home and away.

Conclusions

• I research shorties like this in order to 'justify' the odds and it seem Ajax are worthy of the quote.
• 1.13 usually suggests 3/4 goals minimum and Ajax pass on that point.
• Willem II are likely to score today as they tend to but quite simply be outscored if Ajax continue their 3+ goal pattern at home v 11th and lower.
• Fear not if tight first half. Ajax score readily 2nd half. I would though expect a goal at least before halftime.
• A hope Willem II score first today for a chance at value Ajax odds.

15:45 - Feyenoord v Roda JC - 1.14 Feyenoord

• 0-2 Feyenoord and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
• I must say that Feyenoord have been unreliable at times this season.

Feyenoord (5th)

• For all of their inconsistencies, only 3 defeats.
• 3 clean sheet wins in 4 matches.
• Hugely concerning is the recent scoring at home 0-0-1-1-1-1.
• Have scored more than 1 goal at home in 2 matches v 14th and 16th.

Roda (17th)

• 8 defeats in 9 away.
• Only 1 clean sheet.
• No 0-0 at halftime away.
• All defeats away v top 16.
• Conceded 2+ goals in all defeats v top 10.
• 7/8 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

• I have seen stronger 1.14 shots, that is for sure. A team scoring 0-0-1-1-1-1 you want me to back at 1.14 odds? Yeh right, is that a Christmas Cracker joke?
• This is a match where I would lay Feyenoord if Feyenoord lead at ultra short odds. Unlikely to come off given Roda tend to concede 2+ goals in defeat v top 10 away, but if Feyenoord revert to home nervousness, Roda will remember the 1-1 at their place.
• If Roda true form plays out, then there is an argument for Feyenoord scoring 2 goals (they have done v 14th and 16th at home) and as I say Roda concede 2+ away v top 10.